《斯坦福大学公开课：远见的力量-NVIDIA创始人谈企业发展过程 第4-6集》英中字幕

============目录TOC\o"1-3"\h\u19933第4集 230011第5集 213887第6集 327269第3集 420909第1集 54725第2集 69935第3集 8第4集E04Thequestioniswhatdidourinvestorssayaboutustakingthebigrisk.Ofaddingprogramableshaders,reinventingthatproductcategoryandreinventingourcompany.Firstofallitisnotaconversationyoureallyhavewithyourshareholeders.Butyoudohavetheconversationwithyourmanagementteamfirst,youremployeessecond,yourboardofdirectorsthird.TypicallyistheprocessItake.Whenyouareinhightech,whenyouareinthetechnologyindustry,technologymovesthisfast.Ifyouarenotreinventingyourselfyouarejustslowlydying.YouarejustslowlydyingunfortunatelyattherateofMoore'sLaw.Whichisthefastestofanyratethatweknow.ThecompoundedrateofMoore'sLawisunbelievable.Question:Wehaveproductthatismakingalotofmoneyhowdoyoucannibalizeit.Thereisatheorythatifyoudonotcannibalizeitthensomebodywillanditsurelywillbecannibalized.Soifyouwanttobeamarketleaderyouhavetotaketheinitiativetocannibalizeyourownproductsandhaveyourideas,cannibalizeyourownideas.E04问题是我们的投资者对我们的冒险持怎样的看法增加程序重新设计产品目录重新组建公司首先你和你的股东并没有真正对此进行交流但是你首先要与你的管理团队进行交流之后是你的雇员第三才是董事这就是我们通常的步骤在高新技术领域在高科技工业领域科技的发展日新月异不保持创新就等于慢性死亡你会根据穆尔定律的速度逐渐消亡这是我们知道的最快的速度穆尔定律的速度是无法比拟的问题:如果我们有一款产品卖的非常好我们为何要淘汰它呢?有一个这样的理论如果你不淘汰它其他人就会淘汰它所以你还是必须淘汰因此如果你要引领市场你就必须主动淘汰自己的产品有自己的思想淘汰自己的产品第5集E05Theeconomicsofbuildinganythingultimatelycomesdowntotheamountofcompetitionyouhave.Youdon'tsetthepricethecompetitionsetsthepriceThemarketdoesn'tsetthepricethecompetitiondoes.SoifyourcompetitorwishestobuildPlaystation3asmuchasyoudothentheeconomicswillbechallenging.Sothereyoujustneedtodecideisitaneconomicdecisionforyou.Forexampletherewererumoursthatwewerenotveryenthusiasticaboutbuildingsomeofthegamesconsolesbutmoreenthusiasticaboutbuildingothergamesconsoles.Itcamedowntothisforme.Ithinkyouhavetorealizewhatisthefiniteresourcewhatisthescarceresourcethatyouhaveasamanager.Thefunctionofamanageristoallocateresourcesproperlyforthebestreturn.Soifyouthinkaboutourresources,ourresourceisthefinitenumberofextraordinaryengineersandhowmuchtimetheyhaveinadaytopursuewhateveropportunitiesareoutthere.NowifthenumberofopportunitiesthatareoutthereislessthanmysupplyofengineerssothendemandexceedsislessthanmysupplythenobviouslyIamveryenthusiasticaboutit,ifitstheotherwayroundthentheopportunitytobuildagamesconsoleatterribleeconomicsoranyprojectatterribleeconomicsissimplynotworthit.Ilookatitirrespectiveofcompetition.ThecompetitionsetsthepricebutIgettodecideweatherIwanttoengageinthatprojectornot.YouareinchargeofyourowncompanyasaCEOSowedecidewhetherornotit'seconomicornotandonceyoudecideitiswhatitis.Youhavetobethoughtfulaboutwhatisyourcriticalresourcedoyouhavemoreofitorlessofitthanthemarketdemands,doyouhavemoreorlessopportunitythanyourresourcecansupportandwhatisyourreturnonthatinvestment.Notjustyoucostsbutmoreimportantlyyouropportunitycosts.Sowelookatitfromthatperspectiveeverysingletime.E05任何一种东西的建设从根本上说都是由竞争决定的定价的不是你是竞争定价的不是市场是竞争因此如果你的竞争对手要设计PS3那么你就会受到很大挑战你就要思考这是否是一个经济的决定例如有传言说我们对生产游戏机并不是很感兴趣而是对生产另一款游戏机更感兴趣于是问题就来了我想你要了解有限的原材料是什么作为经理你手中有哪些有限的资源经理的作用就是合理安排资源以得到最大的回报因此如果你想想我们的资源我们的资源包括数量有限的非凡的工程师以及他们每天有多长时间来探寻未知的机会因此如果机会的数量少于工程师的数量那么需求显然小于我们提供的数量这时我就对它十分感兴趣如果情况正好相反那么花费大代价生产一款游戏机就是不值得的这里我并不考虑竞争竞争决定价格但我要决定我是否愿意开始这个项目作为CEO你掌管自己的公司我们来决定这是否经济你一旦决定结果就是这样了你必须决定你的关键资源是什么它的数量大于还是小于市场需求你的机会是大于还是小于你的资源能够支撑的程度你投资的回报是什么不只是你的成本更重要的是你的机会成本因此我们每次都从这个角度看待这个问题第6集E06Ithinkthatsomepeopleare,fromapersonalityperspectiveIamnotparticularlyoutgoingandthatisnotanecessityforbeenagoodCEO.ButasapersonalityIhavealwaysbeenabletolookaroundthecornersifyouwill.Icanseearoundthefuzzyedges.IthinkCEOsandleadersneedtobecomfortablewithambiguity.Ambiguitymeaningthatwhatdoesthefuturelooklike,wellit'shardtosay.Somepeoplehatethat,somepeoplejustsayJensentellmewhatyouneedtohavedoneandwithhowmuchresourcesandbywhen.Somepeoplerathermetellthemyeahlookthereisthisopportunityoutthere,I'mnotsurewhatis,I'mnotsurehowbigitisbutItkindoffeelslikethis,let'sgofigureitoutandbuildabusiness.Somepeopleareverycomfortablewiththat.SothisambiguityitisimportanttobecomfortablewithIguessandIthinkallCEOsthatareverysuccessfularecomfortablewithambiguityandIamverycomfortablewithambiguity.E06从性格角度讲我认为很多人不外向我自己就不是很外向而这并不是当CEO的一个必要因素但是作为一个CEO我总能看到机会我能拨云见日我认为CEO要习惯模棱两可模棱两可意味着我们很难预测未来是什么样的一些人很讨厌这一点一些人对我说"Jensen告诉我该做什么用多少资源什么时候一些人宁愿我告诉他们看那有一个机会我不确定是什么我不确定它的大小但是我感觉是这样的我们去看看到底怎么样一些人很喜欢这样因此我们必须习惯模棱两可我想所有习惯模棱两可的CEO都是成功的而我自己就十分喜欢这种感觉第3集E03Whenacompanygetslarger,youguysneedtolearnthis,asthefounderastheCEOyouhavetolearnnewthings.ManyofthenewthingsyouhavetolearnhavetodowithI'mbuildingproductsatfirstandI'vejusttalkedtoyouaboutbuildingproducts.Soonyouwillbetalkingaboutandlearningaboutbuildingcompanies.Andbuildingcompaniesmeansthingsthataresoftandhardtoexplain.Buildingacompanywithaculturelikeme.Howisthecultureofonecompanydifferentfromthecultureofanother.Anywhyisitthatthisparticularcompanycultureisbetterforyourcompanyandnotforanother.Sothecultureofacompanyisimportanttofindout.Toputyourarmsaroundandtocreateanddevelop.Howdoyouorganize,wewerejusttalkingdownherewithoneoftheguysareyoufunctionallyorganized,areorganizedinbusinessunits.DealwithmultipleproductsandmultiplegeographiesandmultipleCustomers.Thatthecompanybuildingprocess.It'smechanical,it'sinterestinglotsoftrialanderror.It'sorganic,peoplematter,personalitiesmatterandifyouguysareinterestedintalkingaboutthat,I'mhappytotalkaboutthataswell.Iwouldsayprobablythemostimportantthingabovethatistorealizewhenyouarebuildingacompany,buildingaproductskillmatters.Intellectmatters,trainingmattersbutit'snotenough.Thepartofitthatisimportanttorealizeaboutbuildingcompaniesthatitisachallengingandpainfulandoftenattimeanextraordinarilyscarythingtodo.Sounlessyouhavepassion,unlessyouhavelovetheprocessofbuildingthecompanyandwhatyouaretryingtodoit'sgoingtobeincrediblychallenging.E03随着公司规模逐渐扩大你需要知道作为创始人作为CEO你需要学习新的知识你最先需要学习的知识正如我所说一开始我们在研发产品因此你要学的首先是研发产品不久你就要学习怎样组建公司组建公司需要软实力也需要硬实力像我一样组建一个有文化氛围的公司不同公司之间的企业文化有何区别?为什么某种特定的企业文化对你的公司有效而对别的公司没有效果因此一个公司的文化是十分重要的伸开你的双臂来创造和发展你怎样组织我们刚才刚刚和一个人讨论你的组织方式是否有效是否在商业上有限是否与不同的产品不同的图像和不同的消费者打交道这是创建公司的整个过程是一种机械的过程十分有趣要不断尝试它是有机的人员很重要性格也很重要如果大家想听这方面内容我也可以讲讲我想或许当你开始组建公司的时候最重要的是意识到这些东西很重要才智很重要培训很重要但这都是不够的关于创建一个公司最重要的是需要意识到这是一个充满挑战艰辛异常的过程除非你有激情除非你真心喜欢组建公司的过程除非你热爱你的事业这个过程将会艰苦卓绝第1集E01Somepeoplecallitvision.VisionisanawfullybigwordtomebecauseIbelieve,firstofallvisionmatters.LetmetellyouthatvisionmattersandIhopeyouunderstandthatinasecond.ButIliketousetheworkperspectivebecauseitmakesitpossibleforanyonetohaveone.Whenyousayvisionitfeellikeonlyafewselectivevisionariesoftheworldcanhaveone.Buteveryonehasaperspectiveandthatinfactisallvisionmeans.Butyouseetheworldinawaythatiseitherdifferentorotherwiseokthansomebodyelse.Youseeopportunitiesthatyoubelieveareparticularlyimportanttogoanaddress.Thatyoucanaddressinaparticularway.Soperspective,ourperspectiveatthetimethisis1993.YouguyswillnotrememberthisbutthePCwasWindows3.1.CDromwasabouttobeintroduced,therewerenoPC'swithnetworks.Wirelesstechnology,ifsomebodysaidradiothewordthatwouldcometomindwouldbeFMradio.Sowirelesstechnologydidnotexist.Thefastestmicroprocessorintheworldwasa66MHZ46DX2andIdon'tthinkanyofyouwouldevenuseityourtennisshoestodayandwewouldrunourcomputerswiththem.ThePCwasbecomingusedfordesktoporofficeanimation.Ourperspectivewasthatthisparticulardevicewasgoingtobeuniqueinthesensethatishastheabilitytorunprograms.Whatifwegaveitthebenefitofrunning3Dgraphicsprograms.Sothatyoucouldexplorenewworlds,playgamesyouknowplaygames.Sowestartedacompanyandthebusinessplanbasicallyreadsomethinglikethis.Wearegoingtotaketechnologythatwasavailableinonlythemostexpensiveworkstations.Wearegoingtotryandmakeit,reinventthetechnologymakeitinexpensive.Thecureappwasvideogames.SoItookthisideatoSan-herRowandtheytoldmetherewasnovideogamemarket.Peopledon'tstartcompaniestoplaygames.Myparents,IremembercallingmymumandtellingherIwasgoingtostartthiscompanyandshesaidwhatdoyouguysdo.Isaidwebuildthesethingscalled3Dgraphicschipsandpeoplewillusethentoplaygames.Shesaidwhydon'tyougogetajob.Ofcoursegameswaswebelievedgoingtobeaverylargepartofthemarketplace.Wehadperspectiveforveryobviousreasons.Wegrewupinthevideogamegeneration,Iwasthevideogamegeneration,Iwasthebeginningofthevideogamegeneration.SotheentertainmentvalueofcomputergameswasveryobvioustomeandIcouldimaginehowitcouldbeaverylargemarketandaverylargeindustry.Foralotofthepeoplethatwereolderthatsensibilitydidn'texist.SonoticeIjustdescribedtoyouperspectiveabouttheworldthatwehadthatisapparentlyobviouslynowtruebecausegamesisnowtheworld'slargestdigitalmediaindustrytoday.Itisapparentlytrueyetatthetimeourcommonsensewasunique.Nobodywouldhavecreatedthetechnologynobodywouldhavecreatedacompanywiththesolepurposeofbuildingtechnologytomakevideosgamespossiblesothatwasoutperspective.E01一些人将之称作看法我认为看法是一个很大的词因为首先它十分重要我来告诉大家看法十分重要我希望大家一会就能明白但是我喜欢用视角这个词因为每个人都可以拥有自己的视角当你说看法我感觉似乎只有少数人能有自己的见解但是每个人都有自己的视角实际上这就是见解的全部意义但是你总是以一种与他人不同的方式看待世界你可以看到那些对你尤其重要的机会你可以用一种特殊的方式处理因此视角这是我们1993年的视角大家或许已经不记得这个但那时电脑是Windows3.1那时电脑还没有网络和无线网科技当人们说到收音机一词时人们想到的是调频广播无线科技还不存在全世界最快的微处理器是66MHZ46DX2我不认为今天大家还会在自己的网球鞋里安装它我们那时用它来运行电脑这些个人电脑成了废物或者办公室娱乐的工具我们的看法是这个设备是独特的它能运行程序如果我们使它能够运行3D程序呢?这样我们就可以探索新世界玩新的游戏于是我们开了一家公司这就是我们的商业计划我们打算采用可能的科技仅仅应用于最昂贵的工作站我们会试着做好对这项科技进行改造使它不那么昂贵我们的应用是电子游戏因此我产生了这个想法但是他们告诉我电子游戏没有市场人们不会成立公司来玩游戏我给我母亲打电话告诉她我要成立这家公司她问我你们主要做什么?我说我们制造3D图像芯片人们可以用它们来玩游戏她对我说你为什么不去找工作当然我们一直坚信游戏市场十分广阔我们的视角来自于显而易见的原因我们是伴着电子游戏长大的一代我是电子游戏一代我生长在电子游戏一代的初期因此电脑游戏的价值对我来说显而易见我能想象到它将会成为一个巨大的市场和产业但是对很多年龄更大的人来说这种可能性是不存在的我刚才给大家描述了我们对于世界的看法这种视角现在当然是正确的因为游戏是现在最大的数字媒体产业这显而易见是正确的但是那时我们的视角是独特的没人会发明这项科技没人会开创一家公司唯一的目的是用科技使电子游戏成为可能这就是我们的视角第2集E02Shortlyafterwewerestarted3DgraphicsforPCsandconsumer3Dgraphicsbecamethehottestthing.SoeveryoneinSiliconeValleywasstartinga3Dgraphicscompany.Wewerein1993theonlyconsumer3Dgraphicscompanyintheworld,Siliconegraphicsupthestreetwastheprofessional3Dgraphicscompany.bytheendofacoupleofyearsorso1995therewereprobably50-70start-upsdoingexactlythesamethingweweretryingtodo.Overtimewecompetedwithabout200companiesandNvidiatodayistheonlysurvivingcomputergraphicscompanyintheworld.Thequestionissothenwhathappened.Competitionisintenseeverybodyhassmartpeople,everybodyhasmoney.WecompetedwithIBM,wecompetedwithHP,wecompetedwithSiliconeGraphics,withSony,3Deffects,S3,SeriesLogic,big,small,internationalandlocal.Wecompetedwithcompaniesallovertheworld.Sothequestioniswhathappened.Iwouldargue300companiesarmedwiththesametechnology,armedwiththesamepeople,thecompanythatwinsandIwillsaytheyallexecute.Andtheydidwith300companiesyouknow50%ofthenweregoingtoexecuteasanygivenpointintime.Thequestionishowdoesonesurvive.WellIthinkthatitmatterstohaveperspectiveandletmegiveyousomeexamples.Ialwaysbelievedthatyouneedtounderstandwhyyourbusinesswork.Whatistheessenceofyourbusinesswhatmakesitwork.Nowthefoundationofmybusinessatitscoreissemi-conductortechnology.HereinSiliconeValleyweusuallyliketorefertosemiconductortechnologyasMoore'sLaw.Moore'sLawisnotsomuchaphysicallawasit'salawofcompetition.Itisalawofchallengingengineers,it'salawalmostofsettingpace.Moore'sLawapproximatelygiveyoutwicetheperformanceeveryyearortwo.Sounderstandingthefundamentalingredientofourbusinessimprovesbyafactoroftwoeveryyearandsimultaneouslyreducesincostbythefactoroftwoeveryyear.Thequestioniswhatmakesasurvivablebusiness.Soourfirstperspectivewasthat3Dgraphicswasinsatiable.ThatifImadesomethingtwiceasgoodeveryyearevenifthecustomerneveraskedforit,evenifthecustomertoldusitwastooexpensive.Evenifthecustomerwhenyouwenttofloatthatproductspecificationtothemtoldyoutheywerenotinterested,andthatwasthecase.ItookourproductspectoIBMandGatewaytheyalltoldmeitwastoomuchmoney.Youarewelloutsideoftheboundariesofwhattheyarewillingtopayfor.Whenyourcustomersalltellyounottodosomethingthequestionisthenwhatdoyoudo.Inourcasebecausewehadthisuniqueperspectivethat3DgraphicswasinsatiableandMoore'sLawwasourfriendthereforeweshouldmakeourgraphicsprocessorstwiceasgoodeveryyear.Soforthefirst5yearsofthecompanywejustturnedoffourblinderandsaidwearegoingtoignorecustomers.Nowwhichoneofyouguysaregoingtogothroughyourmarketingcoursesandlessonthatitteachesyouisignoreyourcustomers.Wellsometimesyouhavetoignoreyourcustomersandthereasonforthatistheydon'tknowthenatureofyourbusiness.Andwhiletheindustryisbeencreatedbeforethereiscommonsenseabouttherulesofthatbusinessthereisnowaytheycanpossiblyknow.SoItookthelastfewmilliondollarsofthecompaniesmoneyandbuiltachipthatiswaytoowaytoobig.E02就在我们为个人电脑发明了3D图像后消费者3D图像成为了最热门的产品因此硅谷中的3D图像公司开始层出不穷1993年我们是全球唯一一家消费者3D图像公司硅谷图像属于专业的3D图像公司几年之后到1995年或许有50-70家公司从事同样的行业在这段时间中我们和200多家公司竞争Nvidia今天还是世界唯一的电脑图像公司因此问题是发生了什么?竞争十分激烈大家都有人才大家都有钱我们能和IBM竞争和惠普竞争和西斯科竞争和索尼和3D效果和来自世界各地大大小小的公司竞争我们和全球的公司竞争因此问题就是发生了什么我可以说有300家公司的科技人才和设备都完全相同这些公司最后都会消失一共有300多家公司其中一半在任何时候都有可能消失问题是应该如何生存我认为拥有自己的视角很重要我给大家举几个例子我一直相信你需要明白为什么你的公司能够运行你的企业的核心是什么我的企业的核心就是半导体科技在硅谷我们通常将半导体科技叫做穆尔定律穆尔定律不只是一条物理定律它是一条竞争定律它有与工程师的挑战有关它几乎为我们定下了步调穆尔定律能够使你的表现每年增长两倍因此我们的企业的构成要素每年增长两个系数同时开销也减少两个系数问题是一个企业存活下来的关键是什么我们的第一个视角是3D图像是需求很大的如果我每年将产品的质量翻倍即便消费者并没有这样要求即便消费者告诉我们这样价钱太过昂贵即便当你给消费者寄去样本时他们告诉你他们对此并不感兴趣我将我们的产品送到IBM和Gateway时情况就是这样它们都告诉我我们的价钱太高了你已经远远超过了他们愿意出价的标准了当所有的消费者都告诉你不要做一件事的时候问题就是你该怎么做在我们的例子中由于我们拥有独特的视角3D图像市场需求大我们也严格遵守穆尔定律因此我们应该使我们的图像处理器的质量每年提高两倍因此在公司成立的前五年我们抛却所有的障碍说我们要完全忽略我们的顾客我想现在在经济学课上没有一本教材教大家要忽略你的消费者有时你需要忽略你的消费者这里的原因是他们并不知道商业的本质在关于这行的基本规则出现之前我们就开启了一个全新的商业领域所以他们不可能知道这其中的规则因此我用公司的最后几百万美元建造了一个芯片但是它太大了第3集E03Whenacompanygetslarger,youguysneedtolearnthis,asthefounderastheCEOyouhavetolearnnewthings.ManyofthenewthingsyouhavetolearnhavetodowithI'mbuildingproductsatfirstandI'vejusttalkedtoyouaboutbuildingproducts.Soonyouwillbetalkingaboutandlearningaboutbuildingcompanies.Andbuildingcompaniesmeansthingsthatare