新能源板块行业专题报告：原材料降价效果初显电池组件及逆变器保持高速增长

目 录TOC\o"1-2"\h\z\u光伏半年报综述：总体利润稳定增长，Q2各环节表现有所分化 5季度盈利能力变化趋势 8费用率大幅下降，汇兑收益贡献显著 9光伏板块整体维持稳健运行 营收持续增长下现金流提升显著 偿债能力稍有下滑，周转速率有所提升 12投资策略 14风险提示 15图目录图1 光伏设备单季度经营情况 8图2 硅料单季度经营情况 8图3 硅片单季度经营情况 9图4 电池组件单季度经营情况 9图5 逆变器季度经营情况 9图6 组件辅材单季度经营情况 9图7 其他辅材单季度经营情况 9图8 电站单季度经营情况 9图9 光伏板块期间费用率变化趋势 10图10 国内光伏新增装机量统计与预测（GW） 14图全球光伏新增装机量统计与预测（GW） 14表目录表1 光伏板块2022H1-2023H1年度经营情况对比 5表2 光伏板块2022Q2-2023Q2单季度经营情况对比 7表3 光伏各子板块单季度期间费用率变化趋势 10表4 电池组件、逆变器公司汇兑损益汇总（百万元，负值代表收益） 10表5 光伏板块单季度经营性现金流净额变化趋势（百万元） 表6 光伏板块货币资金合计（百万元） 表7 光伏板块应收账款及应收票据合计（百万元） 12表8 光伏板块存货合计（百万元） 12表9 光伏板块资产负债率（%） 12表10 光伏板块流动比率及速动比率 13表光伏板块存货周转天数、应收账款周转天数（天） 13光伏半年报综述：总体利润稳定增长，Q2有所分化我们选取46家光伏上市公司，划分为8个子板块进行半年报季报分析。2023H15123.43704.9827.69%24.96%，同比基本持13.76%0.31个百分点。分板块来看，2023H1267.47%，增速88.97%35.01%、2.85%%%、14.48%。毛利率方面，2023H1逆变器、电池组件、硅片、光伏设备环节毛利率有所增长，4.093.532.350.48、5.01、3.80、0.40个百分点。证券简称营业收入（百万元，%）同比2022H1 2023H1增长证券简称营业收入（百万元，%）同比2022H1 2023H1增长毛利率2022H1（%，百分点）同比2023H1变动（百万元，%）同比2022H1 2023H1增长归母净利润率（%，百分点）同比2022H1 2023H1变动光伏设备晶盛机电4370840692.3740.0042.652.661207220682.7827.6226.24-1.38捷佳伟创2679408352.3925.4726.450.9850875248.0018.9518.40-0.55迈为股份1760286962.9840.0732.71-7.353964257.1322.5114.80-7.71金辰股份952114520.2327.1028.821.72385031.843.974.360.38帝尔激光6656741.3346.7548.211.45216174-19.3232.4725.86-6.62奥特维1513251766.4139.0936.64-2.4429952374.7619.7620.760.99合计119391969464.9535.9836.470.482664412955.0022.3120.96-1.35硅料通威股份603397406822.7535.0634.14-0.9212224132708.5620.2617.92-2.34特变电工387974981728.4038.3332.18-61317.8014.99-2.81大全能源163409325-42.9370.4757.67-12.8095254426-53.5358.2947.47-10.83合计11547613321015.3641.1735.06-6.112865425163-12.1824.8118.89-5.92硅片TCL中环316983489810.0917.6923.215.522917453655.509.2013.003.80弘元绿能114567174-37.3820.1921.971.7715761017-35.4513.7614.180.42双良节能429612128182.2920.2413.75-6.4835361874.898.225.10-3.13京运通499551372.8519.2914.54-4.7538856-85.707.771.08-6.69高测股份1335252188.8038.6746.768.09237714201.2717.7428.3210.57合计537816185815.0219.1021.452.355472694126.8510.1711.221.05电池组件爱旭股659.2817.928.635961309119.603.738.054.33中来股份4638576124.2216.6315.15-1.482312362.394.984.10-0.87钧达股份44279421112.8310.2416.846.60273956250.236.1610.143.98隆基绿能504176465228.2417.6119.081.476481917841.6312.8514.201.34天合光能357314938438.2113.5716.923.3612693540178.883.557.173.62晶澳科技284694084343.4713.2119.356.1417024813182.745.9811.795.81东方日升126151760739.5612.3813.451.0850586170.654.004.890.89合计15228220391733.9114.2917.823.53110572089488.977.2610.252.99逆变器阳光电源1228128622133.0625.5429.423.889004354383.557.3315.217.88固德6129.1835.556.38557411256.203.7619.4215.66禾迈股份5141065107.3046.0842.78-3.3020234872.6839.2832.72-6.56德业股份23734894106.2127.4341.7614.334501264180.5018.9825.826.84上能电气4212177416.5823.1817.36-5.8223135488.545.456.210.76科士达1521282385.5630.4532.872.42218501129.8514.3317.753.42昱能科技49765832.3039.9441.421.481291344.1925.8920.39-5.50禾望电气1101154139.9929.2833.334.0411320379.6010.2513.152.90合计2016145594126.1527.4331.514.0920907680267.4710.3716.846.48组件辅材福莱特7304967832.5022.6419.12-3.52100310858.1913.7311.21-2.52凯盛新能2356277917.9210.8210.65-0.17248129-48.0610.524.63-5.89亚玛顿1469168714.787.277.290.014339-9.222.932.31-0.61福斯特90151061617.7620.0214.61-5.411057885-16.3111.728.33-3.39赛伍技术22582221-1.6615.6210.21-5.4117550-71.257.762.27-5.49明冠新材916836-8.7621.5012.99-8.519453-43.8510.286.33-3.95合计233202781719.2818.7414.94-3.8026202241-14.4811.238.05-3.18其他辅材金博股份847607-28.3452.3836.53-15.85368283-23.0743.4746.673.20帝科股份16703475108.057.4111.594.1828203630.471.665.834.17苏州固锝167117142.5517.0114.54-2.4714155-60.638.433.24-5.20美畅股份1538216840.9655.6656.490.8466689333.9943.3141.17-2.14通灵股份62071214.7513.3121.708.38478480.067.5511.854.30中信博1437192133.7211.5915.874.28-198--0.085.105.19清源股份60686242.3619.9627.217.2528108278.554.7012.497.79合计83891145936.6024.7724.37-0.401277172435.0115.2215.05-0.18电站太阳能3536403214.0244.1340.55-3.5877989915.3822.0222.280.26林洋能源2321321138.3537.6130.71-6.9141058141.8517.6518.100.45芯能科技29433212.6655.4657.141.678010935.9327.2732.915.63苏文电能893122036.6125.8122.82-2.9910813828.5312.0511.33-0.71合计7044879424.8440.1435.12-5.011376172725.4819.5419.640.10全部合计39239351234330.5725.1424.96-0.18552097049827.6914.0713.76-0.31资料来源：，按单季度拆分，2023Q22749.21亿元，同比增22.08%334.745.07%；板块平均毛利率为23.02%2.0212.18%1.97个百分点。分板块来看，23Q2单季度逆变器环节归母净利润增速仍然保持领先，同比增长29.1%%、52.13%41.59%14.97%44.30%、19.70%、12.44%；毛利率方面，23Q25.694.4614.24、8.37、4.35个百分点，是降幅最大的环节。证券简称营业收入（百万元，%）同比2Q22 2Q23增长证券简称营业收入（百万元，%）同比2Q22 2Q23增长毛利率2Q22）同比2Q23变动归母净利润（百万元，%）同比2Q22 2Q23增长归母净利润率（%，百分点）同比2Q22 2Q23变动光伏设备晶盛机电2418480798.8240.0544.1945731.6327.45-4.18捷佳伟创1317215263.4323.7629.755.9923541576.9217.8219.291.47迈为股份926171284.9239.6331.82-7.81216204-5.8923.3811.90-11.48金辰股份49562927.1824.5126.732.231024140.322.003.781.78帝尔激光354326-7.9547.1049.442.3312381-34.3434.7024.75-9.95奥特维888147866.5239.4136.67-2.7419230156.6421.6620.38-1.28合计63971110473.5935.7437.651.911541234452.1324.0921.11-2.98硅料通威股份356544082414.5035.7226.81-8.9170294669-33.5819.7211.44-8.28特变电工21658235308.6437.8825.51-12.3737842743-27.5217.4711.66-5.81大全能源82114468-45.5876.8341.90-34.9352131515-70.9463.4933.91-29.58合计65523688225.0341.5827.34-14.24160268926-44.3024.4612.97-11.49硅片TCL中环1833017279-5.7416.8923.416.521607228342.138.7613.214.45弘元绿能57823661-36.6824.3817.61-6.77921340-63.0515.939.30-6.63双良节能25626665160.1421.3813.01-8.37232116-49.989.071.74-7.33京运通30582414-21.0524.736.74-17.99379-248-165.3012.41-10.26-22.67高测股份779126261.9339.4050.4011.00140379170.7717.9830.0712.09合计30512312812.5220.0520.320.2732802872-12.4410.759.18-1.57电池组件爱旭股份815885034.2311.0517.746.6936960764.664.527.142.62中来股份2628305316.1515.4413.40-2.04142134-5.895.414.38-1.03钧达股份23905454128.1710.2918.808.51251602139.4810.5111.030.52隆基绿能318223633414.1815.4520.004.543817554145.1811.9915.253.26天合光能204582806537.1813.5516.142.597261772144.053.556.312.77晶澳科技161482036226.1012.0119.597.589522231134.315.9010.965.06东方日升72011083050.3811.5314.122.5929255088.534.055.081.03合计8880711260026.7913.5317.994.4665491143774.647.3710.162.78逆变器阳光电源771416042107.9723.2030.537.334902846481.466.3517.7411.40固德威8032095161.0128.4132.684.2845404794.455.6319.3013.67禾迈股份28548570.1744.3738.43-5.9511517250.2840.2335.53-4.70德业股份1532280983.3429.1340.7911.66318675111.9620.7824.023.24上能电气2031557665.5620.8316.65-4.187991340.433.376.342.97科士达960142047.8231.1133.702.5916426763.3617.0418.831.79昱能科技324222-31.3539.8041.101.309817-83.1230.287.45-22.84禾望电气64193145.3624.8933.738.8346124170.737.1613.346.18合计1246125561105.1225.8431.535.6912824605259.1310.2918.017.73组件辅材福莱特3796431313.6423.7319.93-3.805665731.3114.9113.29-1.62凯盛新能135013520.1610.4611.541.08136116-14.3910.068.60-1.46亚玛顿76487814.939.387.66-1.723223-26.814.182.66-1.52福斯特5131570311.1522.7916.62-6.17718520-27.5313.999.12-4.87赛伍技术116111801.6716.8112.02-4.808717-80.167.461.45-6.00明冠新材533435-18.4123.9013.86-10.046133-44.9511.417.70-3.71合计12734138628.8520.4616.11-4.3515991284-19.7012.569.26-3.29其他辅材金博股份396305-23.1351.2737.04-14.23165165-0.1541.7254.1812.47帝科股份972192798.237.3311.814.4891161135.270.976.045.07苏州固锝87398212.4717.9915.09-2.908233-60.119.363.32-6.04美畅股份872117434.5956.7560.383.6338251334.5543.7443.73-0.01通灵股份30538325.3815.8721.825.95324748.8010.3812.321.94中信博861110628.4813.9117.593.68859666.360.905.364.46清源股份33850047.8122.3127.084.772257153.806.6511.424.77合计4619637738.0725.3425.27-0.0770099141.5915.1615.540.39电站太阳能214023258.6443.9440.61-3.34517510-1.4824.1721.92-2.25林洋能源1337214660.5340.4828.00-12.4823138466.4917.2717.910.64芯能科技17820414.9763.3759.71-3.66707913.6639.1538.70-0.45苏文电能48663931.4428.2317.26-10.966542-35.4713.446.60-6.84合计4141531428.3441.8133.44-8.37883101514.9721.3319.10-2.22全部合计22519427492122.0825.0423.02-2.0231860334745.0714.1512.18-1.97资料来源：，季度盈利能力变化趋势光伏设备：毛利率在30-40%之间保持相对稳定，23Q2毛利率达37.65%，创2020年以来新高；多晶硅：23Q2营业收入有小幅增长，但净利润和毛利率均有所下滑，我们认为主要由于2023年上半年多晶硅市场供过于求导致的硅料价格持续下滑；图1光伏设备单季度经营情况资料来源：，

图2硅料单季度经营情况资料来源：，硅片盈利承压，组件盈利趋稳。23Q220.32%2.29个百分点，我们认为主要原因仍然是产能过剩，光伏产业链价格快速下行，产业链竞争23Q217.99%0.38个百分点，在整体产业链价格下行趋势中仍能保持较为稳定的毛利率；我们认为，未来随着较低利润率下的多余产能逐渐出清，竞争格局更加有序，中下游各环节盈利将呈现出修复趋势；图3硅片单季度经营情况资料来源：，

图4电池组件单季度经营情况资料来源：，逆变器维持较高盈利水平，组件辅材盈利有所修复。23Q2逆变器环节毛利率为23Q22.33图5逆变器季度经营情况资料来源：，

图6组件辅材单季度经营情况资料来源：，2.0225.27%，收入利润规模也在稳定增长中。电站板块：电站板块23Q2的毛利率为33.44%，环比下降4.24个百分点。图7其他辅材单季度经营情况资料来源：，

图8电站单季度经营情况资料来源：，费用率大幅下降，汇兑收益贡献显著图9光伏板块期间费用率变化趋势资料来源：，23Q25.49%0.972.38个3Q2表3光伏各子板块单季度期间费用率变化趋势光伏设备2Q209.83%硅料10.45%10.67%12.82%11.11%8.07%8.84%11.81%5.60%5.48%7.79%8.93%5.63%5.46%硅片13.73%13.36%14.68%11.42%11.03%8.58%9.14%7.76%8.22%7.84%6.47%8.72%6.80%电池组件8.18%10.41%6.58%7.91%8.41%7.93%8.49%7.82%4.89%4.60%5.53%7.44%3.53%逆变器12.29%14.73%12.45%16.08%16.70%14.13%14.96%19.15%13.23%9.28%12.40%13.31%8.73%组件辅材10.29%10.06%10.73%8.71%9.53%7.52%4.82%5.94%5.59%5.72%7.74%6.22%5.11%其他辅材12.15%12.45%8.69%11.51%9.58%10.09%10.40%8.40%9.40%10.14%9.57%9.14%8.79%电站15.75%18.73%19.67%19.93%14.93%15.12%20.77%19.19%13.77%12.48%13.32%15.42%9.67%资料来源：，分板块来看，23Q223Q15.75、4.58、3.91个百分点。表4电池组件、逆变器公司汇兑损益汇总（百万元，负值代表收益）公司2022H12023H1爱旭股份-8.87-13.64中来股份1.53-42.05钧达股份0.40-4.59隆基绿能-420.89-954.90天合光能79.24551.84晶澳科技-99.02-602.47东方日升-85.67-307.05阳光电源-224.92-405.90固德威-2.31-116.51禾迈股份1.18-42.14德业股份-59.63-137.49上能电气-8.1331.51科士达-11.61-17.77昱能科技-19.52-11.83禾望电气-0.09-1.78合计-858.31-3241.46资料来源：，电站、逆变器、电池组件环节的费用率下降，主要来自财务费用率下降：我们认为，光伏电站财务费用率的下降，主要是源于电站项目贷款利息随着上半年LPR归还部分贷款致使利息费用减少。逆变器、电池组件的特点是出口占比较高，因此汇兑损益对于该板块有明显影响；78到，以上15家企业于2023年上半年汇兑损益全为负值，即全部实现汇兑收益。光伏板块整体维持稳健运行营收持续增长下现金流提升显著现金流：23Q2551.25亿元，环比高增8伏板块各公司经营规模逐渐扩大、营收增加，加大了经营性现金流的流入。表5光伏板块单季度经营性现金流净额变化趋势（百万元）2Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23光伏设备4334672855369716552053-40918291305185519292513硅料234015014852230271074881762869162376124552257081416024637硅片4541687118580412251597243510903344-7169113542835电池组件205656489830-46866728190215219-3455206261483817045-297618390逆变器11358133809-2669-279-1773305-228015062986286-3707651组件辅材10321021510-959395-10871805-47-746146557-2196-1140其他辅材21141413104-72-358986224-61-29950-691369电站69616931613-5688210791625-12583211244631645-131合计83561287222496-46251695784923505619135109241517579421085555125资料来源：，货币资金方面：2023Q2末，光伏板块合计货币资金为2867.92亿元，环比小幅增长；各板块中，23Q2硅料、电站、硅片、组件辅材环节的货币资金环比有所下降。表6光伏板块货币资金合计（百万元）2Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23光伏设备42424582485958998515892610117103981042513018126011456816242硅料20205217572738325273247452734227149377215131569718768898513474706硅片11880105291003013080124791316619108157892042323506229812461723657电池组件38871496835411149018517365671063970698468865197577106054103300118329逆变器6468730711230763384921072918324163332190821709263752745828898组件辅材5207525355845949814378048902739582568467134181229312232其他辅材2484245542552204281827654121352536123847468847305227电站346740234792463052494870489458925077583811466100217500合计92823105589122245113686122176132312156586166900209667243679274472282120286792资料来源：，应收账款及应收票据环比有所提升。截至2023Q2末，光伏板块应收账款及应收票据合计为1700.29亿元，环比上升8.8%。其中，光伏设备、电站、电池组件环节增速最快，分别为19.01%、12.89%、12.86%。表7光伏板块应收账款及应收票据合计（百万元）2Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23光伏设备46035589640462636698709675347609827010127110971196614241硅料15978182721749219514184972214922868273322641726824240812456926019硅片701466496110650674898187833189901015610243100121180312974电池组件25961254752483626378278412748129909324953462539980417514784854001逆变器942297551077811417110381251313541130071344816171206412200722284组件辅材7613793277677314769785899014115731479915053145981637416619其他辅材3423288128342629363039134102424348945481653171137391电站13141129201314713890149661542814981157781715917734150191461616500合计8715689474893699391097856105354110280121027129768141614143730156296170029资料来源：，存货方面环比持续增加。23Q2亿元，环比增长8.5%24.8%、22.5%；10.2%、4.4%。表8光伏板块存货合计（百万元）2Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23光伏设备884896061128413123146871527416346195412224226244309553686946012硅料1085214773911311400110301425416077168071838521199262443059427472硅片3953382442275042750681218807108121058813331134731573315045电池组件20522248982641235774380344960242073569626850171793609467051975905逆变器548258636180708590541288514698181042269027455268452805432302组件辅材2299217223043427405145636523504860977482773071097942其他辅材1108113512411310162520362459243927792945301233574112电站9227901016113010271102870111112951873201228162792合计5398663062617767829087014107836107852130824152575172322171217195051211582资料来源：，偿债能力稍有下滑，周转速率有所提升偿债能力方面：23Q255.41%2.14个百66.77%、63.56%36.97%。表9光伏板块资产负债率（%）2Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23光伏设备51.5055.2356.7956.1755.1354.4251.7252.9356.3957.3360.2962.7766.77硅料57.9257.8454.6955.4555.8752.3951.4650.5547.4147.4145.9244.8848.40硅片57.0352.5751.8851.2652.7152.7249.7850.6853.8354.4055.6754.0853.10电池组件60.4359.7860.9361.0062.4764.5563.6264.8464.4165.7162.6062.0563.56逆变器54.1054.7154.0553.5852.9451.4751.0651.3154.4356.5957.7757.4457.88组件辅材43.2842.3538.6435.4136.8233.9335.4237.4642.5443.1545.3246.1147.14其他辅材35.2228.2531.4930.0131.7734.0535.1532.2636.1630.0334.6134.8036.97电站56.7456.6556.7056.8956.2551.2050.7250.6550.2045.7545.4143.6943.69合计56.6755.8855.1455.0255.7154.8853.5854.1954.4654.7053.7453.2755.41资料来源：，流动比率与速动比率小幅下降23Q21.44、1.08，环比有所下降但降幅偏小，整体来看仍然维持相对稳定。表10 光伏板块流动比率及速动比率流动比率2Q203Q20流动比率2Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23光伏设备1.681.601.561.571.601.661.751.701.581.551.461.421.33硅料1.181.211.221.221.181.281.311.631.751.811.801.971.61硅片1.141.151.051.261.311.271.251.251.211.271.261.311.30电池组件1.151.191.151.131.101.151.111.151.171.161.191.251.21逆变器1.651.651.681.671.721.771.791.791.791.741.671.701.68组件辅材1.851.872.152.282.112.052.091.961.991.881.972.042.10其他辅材2.383.152.772.932.682.692.552.772.372.802.412.372.22电站1.842.192.082.362.192.322.312.262.202.582.502.702.47合计1.311.351.331.351.331.371.381.441.461.481.491.551.44速动比率2Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23光伏设备1.021.000.930.910.961.001.100.990.890.880.800.740.65硅料1.000.981.081.051.031.101.101.411.531.591.531.671.36硅片0.981.000.891.091.081.031.031.001.001.031.021.041.03电池组件0.930.950.910.840.810.810.830.820.820.830.880.910.89逆变器1.331.341.391.331.331.281.341.251.221.141.161.181.14组件辅材1.631.661.931.981.801.731.651.641.661.511.611.721.74其他辅材2.102.852.512.632.372.322.182.362.002.412.092.031.86电站1.762.101.982.242.102.222.232.172.092.432.362.482.27合计1.081.101.101.081.051.061.081.101.111.131.141.181.08资料来源：，周转速率提升，生产管理优化。23Q289.62天、47.43天，环比下降明显，说明企业生产管理得到了进一步优化，效率更佳。分板块来看，23Q2各子板块存货周转天数仅光伏设备、辅材环比提升，其余各板块环比均有所下降，应收账款周转天数仅硅料、硅片有所升高，其余各子板块均有所下降。存货周转天数2Q203Q204Q201Q212Q21存货周转天数2Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23光伏设备411.39391.55403.92459.68420.68411.04401.24457.15454.37458.09481.57546.10553.61硅料68.9370.3551.6255.6746.7448.0349.0949.9345.6846.0049.2370.0755.90硅片66.3261.2359.7650.4855.4449.7848.5046.1940.1243.0941.4854.7552.82电池组件77.2680.6269.3483.9576.9485.0969.2982.9476.2469.6857.9878.6373.50逆变器114.06120.0791.06148.40136.13146.51130.54273.86229.98215.68163.27180.02170.47组件辅材60.6555.2551.0056.7758.0756.1867.6159.0359.9466.1163.6555.5059.61其他辅材75.4874.7161.7164.6557.3860.5267