falknermu能源与环境地理政治趋向碳限制世界

towardsa‘carbon-constrained’24July2015DrRobertFalknerAcademicDirector,TRIUMGlobalEMBAAssociate,GranthamResearchInstituteonClimateChangeandtheDrDrRobertFalkner-Introduction:theenergytransitioninhistoricalThenewgeo-politicsofenergyClimatepoliticsandtheloomingcarboncrunch气候政治学Businessrisksfromclimatechange来自气候变化的商业风DrDrRobertFalkner-Theindustrialrevolutionwas,inessence,anenergyExponentialeconomicgrowthwasmadepossiblebythemassivegrowthinenergyconsumption,largelythroughtheburningofcoalTheglobaleconomyremainsdependentonfossilfuels(coal,oil,gas),butweareatthebeginningofaglobalenergytransition,awayfromcarbon-intensivesourcesPart1:TheenergytransitioninhistoricalDrDrRobertFalkner-Source:Maddison;Ehrlich,etal.Theindustrialrevolution:anenergyDrRobertFalkner-DrDrRobertFalkner-Greenhousegasconcentrations:thelongDrRobertFalkner-DrDrRobertFalkner-Introduction:theenergytransitioninhistoricalThenewgeo-politicsofenergy能Climatepoliticsandtheloomingcarboncrunch气候政治学Businessrisksfromclimatechange来自气候变化的商业风DrDrRobertFalkner-Scarcity:Thelong-termdeclineinresource/energypricesisbeingreversedPoliticalrisk:re-nationalisationof,andglobalcompetitionfor,energysourcesMarketvolatility:greaterriskofsupplydisruptionandpriceThenewgeo-politicsofDrDrRobertFalkner- 大萧McKinseyCommodityPriceIndex(Index:100=yearsScarcity:ResourcepricesarerisingRisingRisingGrowingmiddleclassand3billionpeoplearejoiningtheglobalconsumingclassin1990-2025Passengercarstorisefrom1billionto1.7billiongloballybySupplyOilsupplypeakexpectedby2020-But:abundantcoalreserves;newshalegas/oilDrRobertFalkner-DrDrRobertFalkner-UKEnergyResearchCentrereviewsuggeststhatasupplypeakislikelyin2020-OilmarketsupplyDrDrRobertFalkner-Source:NASDAQ,Dramaticincreaseinshalegas/oilsupplyinUnitedDrDrRobertFalkner-USshaleoilgrowthexpectedtoleveloffbyCanshalegas/oilrevolutionbereplicatedoutsidethePoliticalturmoilinMiddleComplexityandcapitalintensityofoff-shoreoil(e.g.Brazil,Arctic海洋石油勘探的复杂性和资金密集性（如巴西、北极圈OilmarketDrDrRobertFalkner-Source:NASDAQ,Securecoalsupplybeyond21stMajorsourceofairpollution(sulfuroxides,nitrogenoxides,particulates)andgreenhousegasesKeyquestion:canCarbonCapture&Storage(CCS)technologybeintroducedatcommercialscale?MixedoutlookforglobalcoalDrDrRobertFalkner-DrDrRobertFalkner-Source:TheClimateGroup&数据来源：气候小组与其他非Investmentinrenewableenergyis石油价 太阳能装机 风电装机

&Wiser（2013年）；美国能源信息管理局（2013年）DrRobertFalkner-DrDrRobertFalkner-Introduction:theenergytransitioninhistoricalThenewgeo-politicsofenergyClimatepoliticsandtheloomingcarboncrunch险DrDrRobertFalkner-食Internationallyagreedgoal:max.20CDrDrRobertFalkner-Globalemissionsneedtopeakbyca2020andfallto20gtCO2-eby全球排放量必须在约2020年之前达到峰值，并在2050年之前下跌至20gtCO2-Withouttakingaction,emissionsmayreach60gtCO2-ein2020,andTokeepwarmingtobelow20CbyDrDrRobertFalkner-Source:BPDrDrRobertFalkner-Source:BP …CO2emissionsfromenergyusecontinuetoUNFCCCUNFCCC(1992)isuniversallyratifiedbuthasnotbindingemissionreductiontargetsKyotoProtocol(1997)wasinsufficienttodriveglobalemissionreductions,nowcoversonlyca15%ofemissionsFailuretonegotiatepost-KyotoclimatetreatyatCopenhagensummitin20092015:Parisclimatesummitexpectedtoreachdealonnew,comprehensive,treaty.DrRobertFalkner-AbriefhistoryofinternationalclimateDrDrRobertFalkner-CumbersomemultilateralprocessofUNFCCCWhyisinternationalclimatepolicyDrDrRobertFalkner-2015Parisagreementwillbe‘bottom-up’,basedonnationalpledges,notlegallybindingcommitmentsClimatepolicyincreasinglydrivenbynationalFutureDrDrRobertFalkner- 北美东欧ThepotentialforcuttingGHGDrDrRobertFalkner-Source:IEAStateofCarbonemissionDrDrRobertFalkner-DrDrRobertFalkner-Introduction:theenergytransitioninhistoricalThenewgeo-politicsofenergy能Climatepoliticsandtheloomingcarboncrunch险DrRobertFalkner- risk声誉风险 MoreviolentSealevelChangeinrainfall

DrRobertFalkner-ImpactsonbusinessoperationswithinglobalsupplybottlingplantinKerala,India,whenthecompanywasaccusedofusinganunfairproportionoflocalwaterIn2011,weatherextremesinAustraliaarereportedtohavereducedRioTintosearningsby$245m.In2011,extremefloodinginThailanddestroyedfacilitiesanddelayedsuppliesinITandautomobilesectors(e.g.WesternDigital,HondaMotor).Morethan160textilecompaniesaffected.

Picture:floodedindustrialsitesnorthofBangkok,2011DrRobertFalkner-移动RisinginsuranceincidentsduetoclimateDrDrRobertFalkner-VarietyofregulatorySub-nationalregulation(e.g.Californiacap-and-tradescheme;municipalplanningrules)Privateorsocialregulation(voluntaryreportinginitiatives;labellingb.Regulatory by Home Host（如欧盟 报告倡议（碳信息披露项目DrRobertFalkner-DrRobertFalkner-Growingconsumerdemandforlow-carbonClimateresponsibilityseenaspartofbroadercorporateClimatepolicyaselementofcompetitivestrategy&corporateStaffrecruitmentandc.ReputationDrDrRobertFalkner-NGOsareincreasinglytargetingcompaniesthatareheldresponsibleforInvestors:e.g.Greenpeaceprotestsagainstfundingofcoal-firedpowerplantbyReputationrisks:NGOd.LitigationbyaffectedpartiestakeintoaccountclimaterisksPotentialuseofhumanrightsInitialfocusonfossilfuelindustry(coal,oil,gas),heavy(automotive)andinvestors(banks)Asyet,nosuccessfullitigationonclimatechangegrounds,butuncertainfuture

DrRobertFalkner-2008:2008:VillageofKivalinafiledalawsuitagainstmajorUSenergycompanies,claimingpublicnuisance,topayfortheirmoveoffthepeninsulaasAlaskansealevelrises.2011:SupremeCourtruledthatpublicnuisanceclaimsareinappropriate;nuisancelawsupersededbyCleanAirActandUSEPA’splantoregulateemissionsasairpoll