2022年Q4欧洲电力市场报告

Quarterlyreport

OnEuropeanelectricitymarkets

Withfocusonpricedevelopmentsin2022

MarketObservatoryforEnergyDGEnergy

Volume15

(issue4,coveringfourthquarterof2022)

Energy

PAGE

10

CONTENT

HIGHLIGHTSOFTHEREPORT 3

ELECTRICITYMARKETFUNDAMENTALS 4

Demandsidefactors 4

Supplysidefactors 9

EUROPEANWHOLESALEMARKETS 14

Europeanwholesaleelectricitymarketsandtheirinternationalcomparison 14

Tradedvolumesandcrossborderflows 27

FOCUSONDEVELOPMENTSINANNUALWHOLESALEPRICES 33

Day-ahedpriceconvergence 33

Averageannualpricelevelsandvolatility 34

REGIONALWHOLESALEMARKETS 36

CentralWesternEurope(Austria,Belgium,France,Germany,Luxembourg,

theNetherlands,Switzerland) 36

BritishIsles(GB,Ireland) 38

NorthernEurope(Denmark,Estonia,Finland,Latvia,Lithuania,Sweden,

Norway) 39

ApenninePeninsula(Italy,Malta) 41

IberianPeninsula(SpainandPortugal) 42

CentralEasternEurope(Czechia,Hungary,Poland,Romania,Slovakia,

Slovenia) 45

South-EasternEurope(Bulgaria,Croatia,GreeceandSerbia) 47

RETAILMARKETS 49

RetailelectricitymarketsintheEU 49

GLOSSARY 57

HIGHLIGHTSOFTHEREPORT

Thefourthquarterof2022wasmarkedbydecreasingelectricityconsumption,duetodemanddestructionsupportedbyamildwinterwhichdelayedthestartoftheheatingseasonintheEU.Consequently,sustainedbyhighstoragelevels,gaspriceseasedcomparedwithsummerlevels,helpingtoalleviatewholesaleelectricityprices.However,nucleargenerationremainedlow,puttingupwardpressuretoatightmarket,despiteanincreaseinavaila-bilitythroughoutQ42022.Thehigher-than-usualtemperaturesduringtherestofthewinterandstoragelevelssup-portedaconsiderablefallinthepriceofgas(albeitathigherthanhistoricallevels)and,consequently,ofelectricityinthefollowingmonthsof2023.

WholesaleelectricitypricesinEuropeanmarketsbrokeseveralrecordshighduring2022,withanunprec-edentedpeakinAugust.TheRussianwarinUkraineaffectedenergymarketsresultinginsubstantialincreasesinprices,volatilityanduncertaintyonenergysupply.Recordhighgasprices,lownuclearfleetavailabilityandreducedhydrooutputduetoadrought,increasedthepressureonthealreadytightmarket.In2022,theEuropeanPowerBenchmarkaveraged230€/MWh,121%higherthanin2021.Italyhadthehighestbaseloadelectricityprices(304€/MWhonaverage)in2022,followedbytheMalta(294€/MWh),Greece(279€/MWh)andFrance(275€/MWh).

WholesaleelectricitypricesinQ42022werelowerthaninthepreviousquarter(Q32022),duetoim-provedfundamentalsinthegasmarket.Lowerdemandandmildweathersupportedlowerprices,butreducednuclearpowergeneration,continuedtoputupwardpressureonwholesaleelectricitymarkets.Thelargestyear-on-yearpriceincreasesinMemberStateswereregisteredinFrance(+342%),Austria(312%),andSlovakia(+310%).PricesinFrancewereinfluencedbythelownuclearoutputandthereversalofnetexportpowerflowsinthecontextofunprecedentedhighgasprices.TheEuropeanPowerBenchmarkwas187€/MWhonaverageinQ42022,4%loweronyearlybasis.PricesroseinnineteenmarketsinEurope.ThehighestpricesduringthequarterwererecordedinGreeceandItaly(246and245€/MWh,respectively)andwere11%and1%higherthaninQ42021.ThelowestquarterlyaveragepricesduringQ42022wererecordedininSpainandPortugalat113€/MWh,46%lowerthaninQ42021.

ElectricityconsumptionintheEUfell(-9%)comparedwithlastyear’slevelsinQ42022,duetotheimpactoftheenergycrisis,supportedbyamildwinter.Moreover,in2022,consumptionacrosstheEUfellby3%comparedwith2021,followingtheimpactofhighelectricitypricesandthesubsequentindustrialdemandreduction.

Theshareofrenewablesincreasedto39%in2022(from38%in2021),whileshareoffossilfuelsroseto38%(from36%in2021).In2022,solargenerationroseby26%(+41TWh),onshorewindincreasedby10%(+33TWh)andoffshorewindclimbedby4%(+2TWh),reflectingthelevelofdevelopmentofnewcapacityforthesetechnologies.Thecombinedsolarandwindgenerationincreasedtheiroutputby14%in2022(+76TWh).However,subduedyearlyhydrogenerationfellby17%(-61TWh)onadroughtthataffectedEurope.Nucleargenerationremainedunderpres-sureduetooutagesanddelayedscheduledmaintenanceinFrance.Nuclearoutputfellby17%(-118TWh)in2022.

Fossilfuelgenerationroseby3%(+24TWh)in2022,supportedbyreducednuclearandhydrogeneration.Intotal,coal-firedgenerationincreasedby6%(+24TWh),whereaslessCO2-intensivegasgenerationroseslightlybylessthan1%(+1TWh).Risinggaspricesmadegas-firedpowergenerationlesseconomicallyfavourablecomparedtocoal-firedgeneration.Basedonpreliminaryestimates,the2022carbonfootprintoftheEUpowersectorroseby4%comparedwith2021.However,despitethisincrease,thecarbonfootprintQ42022isestimatedtohavedecreasedby9%,duetoreduceddemandandlowerfossilfuelgeneration.

AnewrecordofinstalledrenewablecapacitywasreachedintheEUin2022,as57GWofsolarandwindcapacitywereaddedtothesystem-resultinginanincreaseof16%onayearlybasis.Additionalinstalledcapacitysupportedhigherlevelsofrenewablesgenerationin2022.

Carbonpricesregistered80€/tCO2in2022,whichwasa50%increasefromthepricesrecordedin2021.HighEuropeanUnionAllowances(EUA)pricesin2022,werestillinsufficienttosupportcoal-to-gasfuelswitchinginpowergeneration,duetoexceptionallyhighgaspricesthroughmostoftheyear.

Highwholesaleelectricitypricesresultedinrisingconsumerbillsforhouseholdsin2022,impactingtheindustrysectoraswell.TheeaseinwholesalepricesregisteredinQ42022alleviatedthepressureonretailprices,whilefurtherreductioncouldbeexpectedaspricesfellsubstantiallyduringthefollowingmonthsof2023.RetailelectricitypricesforhouseholdcostumersinEUcapitalcitieswereupby17%inFebruary2023,comparedwiththesamemonthin2022.However,retailpricesinFebruaryregisteredafallforthefourthconsecutivemonth,asaresultoflowerwholesaleprices.

Morethan695,000newEVswereregisteredintheEUinQ42022,anincreaseof30%incomparisonwithsamequarterin2021.Demandforelectricallyvehicles(EVs)positionedQ42022asthehighestquarterlyfigureonrecord.Q42022numberstranslatedintoa28%ofmarketshare,lowerthanChina(35%),butmorethanthreetimeshigherthanintheUnitedStates(8%).

Demandsidefactors

Electricitymarketfundamentals

Figure1

showstheGDPannualgrowthintheEuropeanUnion.AccordingtotheMarch2022Eurostatestimate,seasonallyadjustedGDPincreasedby1.7%year-on-yearintheEUbetweenOctoberandDecember2022(after

+2.6%intheEUinQ32022).Moreover,GDPintheEUincreasedby3.5%in2022,after5.4%in2021.Theeconomicrecoveryregisteredinthefirsthalfof2022sloweddowninthesecondhalfoftheyear,amidhighenergypressureandelevatedinflation(10.4%ofEUannualinflationinDecember2022,energywasresponsibleforcontributing

2.79percentagepointstothisfigure).Moreover,ashighelectricitypricespromptedthedecreaseduseofelectricityinenergy-intensivesectors,theincreaseineconomicactivitydidnotreallytranslateinhigherelectricityconsumptionintheEU.ComparedwithQ42021,annualgrowthregisteredpositivefiguresin23of27MemberStates.ThehighestannualrateswerereportedinIreland(+13.1%),followedbyGreece(+5.2%)andRomania(+4.7%).Thehighestyear-on-yeardecreaseswereobservedinEstonia(-4.4%)andLuxembourg(-2.2%).

Figure1–EUGDPannualchange(%)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42019 2020 2021 2022

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

Source:Eurotat

AccordingtoEurostat,theelectricityconsumptionintheEUdropped8.7%comparedwithlastyear’slevelsinQ42022,followingtheimpactofhighelectricitypricesandthesubsequentindustrialdemandreduction.Demandlevelsforthefourthquarterof2022werealsowellbelowthe2017-2019range,registeringthelowestvalueinOctober(evenlowerthaninOctober2020)andthehighestinDecember(stillbelowDecember2020).

Figure2–MonthlyEUelectricityconsumption

270TWh

250TWh

230TWh

210TWh

190TWh

170TWh

150TWh

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2017-2019range 2020 2021 2022

Source:Eurotat

Figure3

sumsupchangesinelectricityconsumptionover2022,comparedto2021.EUelectricityconsumptionfellduetotheunprecedentedelectricitypricesin2022,whichsupportedadecreaseinhouseholdenergydemandandarelevantdemanddestructionfromindustries.Overall,largeindustrialconsumers,responsibleforthebiggestpor-tionofthedemand,struggledwithhighenergyprices,resultinginaconsiderabledecreaseoftheconsumption.Twenty-threeMemberStatesregistereddecreasesinconsumption,thebiggestofwhichoccurredinSlovakia(-9%),Romania(-8%)andGreece(-7%).Bycontrast,Malta(+8%)andPortugal(+4%)registeredincreaseslinkedtocoolingneedsduetowarmweatherinsummer.Comparedwith2021,EU-wideconsumptionfellby3%.

Figure3-Annualchangesinelectricityconsumptionin2022byMemberState

EU MTPTIECYITHRPLHUESBGATDENLLVCZSIFRLUFISEEEDKBELTELROSK

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

Source:Eurotat

Figure4

sumsupchangesinelectricityconsumptionoverthefourthquarterof2022,comparedtoQ42021.EUaveragehideswidedifferencesofdevelopmentsinindividualMemberStatesduringthereferencequarter.OnlytwoMemberStatessawanincreaseinconsumptionyear-on-year,registeringmoderategrowsinIreland(+4%)andMalta(+2%).Inaddition,twenty-fiveMemberStatesregisteredadropinconsumption,ledbySlovakia(-18%),Romania(-13%),FranceandBelgium(-12%).Ofthemajoreconomies,powerconsumptionalsowentdowninGer-many(-9%)andintheNetherlands(-7%).Themild2022/2023wintercontributedaswelltoadecreaseindemand(see

Figure5

).

Figure4–AnnualchangesinelectricityconsumptioninQ42021andQ42022byMemberState

EU IEMTPTCYPLBGLVCZESITHRNLHUSEATLUDEDKSIFIEEELLTBEFRROSK

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%

Source:Eurotat

Figure5

illustratesthemonthlydeviationofactualColdDegreeDays

(CDD

s)andHeatingDegreeDays

(HDD

s)fromthelong-termaverage(aperiodbetween1979andthelastcalendaryearcompleted)inQ42022.EU-wide,the

referencequarterwaswarmerthanthehistoricalrange,registering139HDDsbelowthelong-termaverage(con-centratedmainlyinOctober).Ingeneral,temperaturesduringQ42022wereapproximately1.5°Chigherthanusual,mainlyduetowarmerweatherinOctober.PracticallyallMSexperiencedwarmer-than-usualweatherconditions,withtheexceptionofNordicandBalticcountriesinDecember,wherecoldtemperatureswereregistered.Duringthereferencequarter,allthreemonthsregisteredwarmer-than-averagetemperatures.Inparticular,Octoberhadthehighestnumberofdeviationsfromtheaveragelevels.Overall,amongotherrelevantfactors,themildweatherhelpedkeepingtheenergypricesituationfromworseningduringthefourthquarterof2022.

Figure5-Deviationofactualheatingdaysfromthelong-termaverageinOctober-December2022

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

-200

-250

EU27ATBEBGCHCYCZDEDKEEELESFIFRHRHUIEITLTLULVMTNLNOPLPTROSESISKUK

HDDsOct-22 HDDsNov-22 HDDsDec-22

Source:JRC.Thecoldertheweather,thehigherthenumberofHDD.Thehottertheweather,thehigherthenumberofCDD

Figure6

showsthatalmost695,000newEVswereregisteredintheEUinQ42022(+56%comparedwithQ32022and+30%year-on-year).Thisisthehighestquarterlyfigureonrecordandtranslatesintoa28%marketshare;lowerthanChina(35%),butmorethanthreetimeshigherthanintheUnitedStates(8%).Thebatteryelectricvehiclessegmentcontinuedtogrow(+31%year-on-yearabove406,000)togetherwithanincreaseinthedemandforplug-inhybridvehicles(+29%year-on-yeartoalmost287,000)forthefirsttimesinceQ32021.Hybridelectricvehicles(notchargeable)salesamountedto545,000,lowerthantheEVcategory,butstillregisteringanincreaseof22%comparedwithQ42021.EUproposalslinkedtoGreenDealinitiativesandnationalpoliciescontinuetosupporttheadoptionofEVsinEurope.

ThehighestEVpenetrationwasobservedinSwedenforanotherconsecutivequarter,withanoutstandingrecordof67%,thankstothesupportofaclimatebonusforbattery-poweredelectricvehicles(BEV)ownersinSwedenandnewzero-emissioncarsandlighttrucks.FromJanuary2023,newCO2limitsfortheclimatebonusareinplace,increasingtheemissionsrequirementtooptforthisbonus.Inaddition,inDenmark,almosthalfofthepassengercarssoldcouldbeplugged(48%),whileinFinland46%oftheQ42022carsaleswereEVs,followedbyGermany(44%).Germanyretainedthepositionofthelargestindividualmarket(closeto345,000EVsalesinQ42022)thankstoitsgenerousincentiveprogramme,whichsince2020anduntiltheendof2022,offeredupto€9,000indirectpurchasebonuses.AfterGermany,numbersinEVswerealsosupportedbyFrance,wheresalesamountedtomorethan100,000newEVsinthereferencequarter.

Figure6–Electricallychargeablepassengervehicle(EV)salesinselectedcountriesinQ42022

250.000 80%

70%

200.000

60%

150.000

50%

100.000

40%

30%

20%

50.000

10%

0 0%

Batteryelectricvehicles Plug-inhybrids ECVshareofnewpassengercarregistrations(rhs)

Source:ACEA,CPCA,BloombergNEF

Figure7

showshowtherapidexpansionofelectricvehiclesinEuropeunfoldedin2021andcontinuedin2022.PolicysupportandadditionalstimulusmeasureshavecontributedtotheincreaseinEVnumbers.AsthenumberofEVsonEuropeanroadsisexpectedtocontinuegrowingfastintheyearsahead,sowillitsimpactonelectricitydemandandnetworkload.Inaddition,theincreaseindemandandfurtherconstraintsinthesupplychainofbatteriesriskslowingtherolloutofEVsinthenearfuture.

Figure7–QuarterlyEVsalesintheEU

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42019 2020 2021 2022

800.000

700.000

600.000

500.000

400.000

300.000

200.000

100.000

0

BEV PHEV

Source:ACEA

Figure8

showsthedeclineofsalesofdieselcars,whichsawtheirmarketsharefallto14%inQ42022,from17%inQ42021.Petrolcarsalesexperiencedafallintheirshareto33%inQ42022,from36%inthefourthquarterofthepreviousyear.Ontheotherhand,theshareofnewHybridelectricvehicles(HEV)inthemarketincreasedfrom20%inQ42021,to22%inQ42022.TheshareofnewEVshasalsorisenyear-on-year(from25%inQ42021to28%inQ42022).

Figure8–EvolutionofquarterlydrivetrainsharesintheEU

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Q12020

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q12021

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q12022

Q2

Q3

Q4

BEV PHEV HEV OtherAPV Petrol Diesel

Source:ACEA

Figure9

showstheevolutionofHeatPumpssalesacrossEuropereportedbytheEuropeanHeatPumpAssociation(EHPA),breakingarecordofsalesofaround3millionnewunitssoldin16marketsinEuropein2022.Heatpumpsarecommonlyusedforheating,hotwaterandeveninsomecases,forcooling.Heatpumpsenabletheuseofrenewables(ambientheat)intheheatingsectorandaremoreefficientthanboilers.REPowerEUplanseekstodoubletheannualpaceofdeployment,mainlyreplacinggasboilersinanadditional10millionbuildingsoverthenextfiveyears,and30millionby2030.

Intotal,thecurrentheatpumpstockamountedtoalmost20millioninEurope,bytheendof2022.Annualsalesgrewaround38%in2022.

Figure9–YearlyHeatPumpsalesinEurope

25

2

20

1,5

15

1

10

0,5 5

0 0

200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Sales(millionsofunits) Stock(right-handside)

Source:EHPA

Figure10

showsdetailedamounttoheatpumpsalesinselectedMemberStatesduring2022.Themainincreaseinsalesduring2022,comparedwith2021,wasregisteredPoland(+100%),Czechia(+99%)andtheNetherland(+80%).Inabsoluteterms,thelargestnumberofsaleswereseeninItaly(over500thousandnewheatpumpunits),FranceandGermany.

Figure10–SalesofHeatPumpsin2022inselectedMemberStates

600.000

500.000

400.000

300.000

200.000

100.000

0

AT BE

CZ DK FI

FR2022

DE IT

2021

NL PL

PT SE ES

Source:EHPA

Supplysidefactors

Figure11

reportsondevelopmentsinEuropeancoalandgasprices.In2022bothgasandcoalmarketsremainedsubjecttovolatilityinthespotmarket.TheRussianinvasioninUkraineandrelatedinternationalsanctions(includingreluctancefromcompaniestopurchaseRussianfossilfuels)affectedalreadytightenergymarketsresultinginsubstantialincreasesinprices,volatilityanduncertaintyonenergysupply.InOctober,pricesofgasfelltopre-crisislevels(beforeJuly2021)forthefirsttimereflectinganoversuppliedmarketwithhighstoragevolumes.Spotpricesdivergedatlowerlevelsthanforwardcontracts.PricessurgedagaininNovembertonewhighsonthebackofthedelayedstartoftheheatingsessioninEurope,translatingintohighergasdemand,intensifyingofstorageswith-drawalsandanalignmentofspotandforwardcontracts.Finally,pricesplungedinthesecondhalfofDecemberonfavourablefundamentals:undergroundstoragesstillbeingclosetomaximumcapacityinmostMemberStates,continuedhighdeliveriesofLNG(e.g.newEemshaventerminalintheNetherlands)atpriceslowerthanTTFandreduceddemandinlinewithpolicyaction,warmer-than-averagetemperaturesanddemanddestruction.

InOctober,theCommissionproposed

\h

newemergencyregulationt

oaddresshighgaspricesstrengthensecurityofsupplyofgasviajointpurchasing,defaultsolidarity,anewpricingreferencebenchmarkforLNG,andatemporarycollartopreventextremespikesinderivativemarkets.Italsoproposeda

\h

MarketCorrectionMechanism

toprotectconsumersfromepisodesofexcessivelyhighgasprices.On19December,the

\h

EnergyCouncil

agreedontheCom-missionproposalstoseekdevelopingajointpurchasingandefficientusofgasinfrastructure,anewLNGbenchmarktobringmoretransparencytothegasmarkets,asolidaritydefaultrulesonfinancialcompensation,andamarketcorrectionmechanismtolimitexcessivegasprices.On20March,theCommissionproposedtoextendthecoordi-nated

\h

demandreductionforgasrules

(by15%foranother12months).

Spotgaspricesaveraged95€/MWhinQ42022,52%lowerthanthepreviousquarter(Q32022)andjust1%higherthanpricesinQ42021.On1November,gaspricesregistered24€/MWhonthebackofacombinationofunexpectedwarmweather,significativedemanddestructionandashortageofstoragecapacity.Conversely,on7December,gaspricesclosedat149€/MWhreflectingincreaseddemandduetolowtemperaturesinEurope,supportedbyoutagesofNorwegiangasassets.ForwardpricesregisteredacontangoduringthefirstpartofQ42022,correctedwiththedelayedstartoftheheatingseasontranslatingintohighergasdemandandstoragewithdrawals.EUstor-agesreachedapeakof95%duringthesecondweekofNovember.SpotandforwardpricesremainedatdownwardtrendformostpartofQ12023,drivenbyimprovedmarketfundamentals(i.e.highstoragelevels,reduceddemandandadditionalLNGregasificationcapacitiesinEurope).

Aftersupportinggas-to-coalswitchformostof2022,thereductionofgaspricesinOctoberandattheendofQ42022,hasclosedthegapbetweencoal-andgas-firedgeneration.Thefurtherdeclineingasprices,combinedwithhighcarbonpricesinQ12023,hassupportedgas-firedgenerationvis-à-viscoal-firedpowerplants.Gaspriceshaveasignificantinfluenceonelectricitywholesaleprices,asgas-firedgenerationcommonlysetsthewholesaleelec-tricitymarginalpricesinmanymarketsoftheregion.

Thermalcoalspotprices,representedbytheCIFARAcontract,fellto234€/tinQ42022(fromthehighlevelsrecorderinthepreviousquarter).Pricesfellby35%comparedwiththepreviousquarter(Q32022)andamountedfora49%growthcomparedwithQ42021.CoalpricewasonamarkeddecreasingtrendsinceSeptember,despitetightenergymarketsandgas-to-coalswitch,supportedbyincreasedlevelsofimportsinlinewithsupplydiversifi-cationefforts.InDecember,coalpricesfelltolevelsbeforetheRussianwarinUkraine,duetomildwintertemper-aturesandamplecoalstocks.

Asaresultofsanctions,importsofcoalfromRussiahaltedsince10August,althoughsupplierswerealreadylookingforalternativesourcestoreplaceRussiancoalinthepreviousmonths.SomeMemberStatesputinplaceshort-termpoliciestoallowformorecoaltobeusedforproducingelectricitytoreplaceRussiangasusedforpowergeneration.TheGermangovernmentdelayedtheclosureof8.6GWofcoalpowerplants,whiletheDutchgovernmentliftedon20Junetheproductionrestrictionsthatlimitedcoal-firedgenerationloadfactorsto35%,aspartofthecountry’sgascrisisplan.

Coalpricescontinuedthefallinthefollowingmonths(Q12023)supportedbyincreasedlevelsofimportsinlinewiththesupplydiversificationefforts,aswellastheimprovementoflocalcoalproductioninsomeMemberStates(e.g.Poland)andhighlevelofgasstorageswhichsupportedlowergaspricesintheEU.

Figure11–Weeklyevolutionofspotandyear-aheadcoalandgasprices

350€/MWh

300€/MWh

250€/MWh

200€/MWh

150€/MWh

100€/MWh

50€/MWh

0€/MWh

450€/t

Q1 Q2

Q3

2019

Q4 Q1 Q2

Q3

2020

Q4 Q1 Q2

Q3

2021

Q4 Q1 Q2

Q3

2022

Q4

Q1

2023

400€/t

350€/t

300€/t

250€/t

200€/t

150€/t

100€/t

50€/t

0€/t

AverageofTTFYA(EUR/MWh) AverageofTTFSpot(EUR/MWh) AverageofCoalCIFARAyear(€/t) AverageofCoalCIFARAspot(€/t)

Source:S&PGlobalPlatt

TheEuropeanmarketforemissionallowances,shownin

Figure12,

continuedregisteringhighlevelsofpricevola-tilityinQ42022drivenbydownwardpressurecomingfromindustrialandconsumerdemanddestructionandfromtheotherside,upwardpressurefromgreatercoal-firedgenerationwhichincreasesdemandforemissionallowances.Carbonpriceshoveredaround70-85€/tCO2duringmostpartofQ42022,reachingahighof90€/tCO2on12December,aslowtemperaturesledtorisingdemand,increasingfossilfuelgenerationanddemandforallowances.

TheaveragespotpriceofCO2inQ42022(77€/tCO2)registeredanincreaseof12%comparedwithQ42021anda3%decreaseinrelationtothepreviousquarter(Q32022).Underexceptionallyhighgasprices,theEuropeanUnionAllowances(EUA)priceisnothighenoughtosupportcoal-to-gasfuelswitchinginpowergeneration(see

Figure24)

.However,lowergaspricesinOctober,endof2022andQ12023,aresupportingcoal-to-gasfuelswitch.Inrecentyears(2020)highcarbonpricesputcoalandlignitepowerplantsatagreaterdisadvantageagainsttheirlesspollutinggas-firedcompetitors.

In2022,theaveragespotpriceofCO2registered80€/tCO2,whichwasa50%increasefromthepricesrecordedin2021.HighEuropeanUnionAllowances(EUA)pricesin2022,werestillinsufficienttosupportcoal-to-gasfuelswitchinginpowergeneration,duetoexceptionallyhighgaspricesthroughouttheyear.

Figure12–Evolutionofemissionallowancespotpricesfrom2019

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

100€/t

90€/t

80€/t

70€/t

60€/t

50€/t

40€/t

30€/t

20€/t

10€/t

0€/t

Source:S&PGlobalPlatt

Asvisiblefrom

Figure13,

monthlyaveragethermalcoalimportsintotheEUheldatroughly7.5MtinQ42022,ashighgaspricessupportedmorerunninghoursforcoal-firedgeneration.Thetotalvolumeofimportsincreasedby8%year-on-yearto22Mtinthefourthquarterof2022.Forthewholeyearof2022,EUthermalcoalimportsincreasedby4%comparedwith2021(73Mt).TheestimatedEUimportbillforthermalcoalamountedto€6.5billioninthereferencequarter,106%highercomparedtoQ42021.enhancingtheyear-on-yearincreaseinimportedvolumesduetohighercontractedpricesofthiscommodity.Theestimated2022importbillforthermalcoalin-creasedby166%to€19.9billion.

Thelargestpartofextra-EUthermalcoalimportsinQ42022camefromSouthAfricawhichaccountedfor31%ofthetotalimports,amountingtoa26%increasecomparedwithQ42021.InlightoftheinvasionofRussiainUkraine,the5thpackageofsanctionsadoptedbytheEU,bannedthepurchase,import,ortransferofcoalandothersolidfossilfuelsintotheEUfromRussiaasfromAugust2022.ThisisestimatedtohaveanimpactoveronefourthofallRussiancoalexports,amountingtoaround€8billionlossofrevenueperyearforRussia.WithoutRussiancoalintheEuropeanmarket,internationalcompetitorsarestartingtoincreasetheirsharesinimportstotheEU.Conse-quently,alongwithSouthAfrica,othercountriesregisteredanincreaseofthermalcoaldeliveriesinQ42021:Indo-nesiarecordedanincreaseinimportsof11p.p.(12%shareofthetotalimports),whileColombiasawitsimportsgrowby8p.p.(22%shareofthetotal)inthefourthquarterof2022.TheshareofdeliveriesfromUSportsincreasedfrom9%to10%,whiletheshareofimportsfromKazakhstanandAustraliareachedsharesof10and11%,respec-tivelyduringthereferencequarter.

Figure13–Extra-EUthermalcoalimportsourcesandmonthlyimportedquantitiesintheEU

123456789101112123456789101112123456789101112123456789101112

2019 2020 2021 2022

12Mt

10Mt

8Mt

6Mt

4Mt

2Mt

0Mt

Source:Eurotat

Russia Colombia USA SouthAfrica Indonesia Australia Kazakhstan other

Figure14

presentstheproductioncost-basedestimatespricesforhydrogen,generatedbythreedifferenttechnol-ogies.Alkalinewaterelectrolysis,PolymerElectrolyteMembrane(PEM)andSteamMethaneForming(SMR).Alkalinewaterelectrolysisischaracterisedbyhavingt