奥纬咨询+关于中国游客回归你应该知道的4件事

AbusinessofMarshMcLennan

4thingsyoushouldknow

abouttheRETURNof

ChineseTravelers

OliverWyman’sperspective

July2023

AbusinessofMarshMcLennan

Source:NationalBureauofStatisticsofChina,WorldTravelandTourismCouncil,OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman2

155

+15%

WHENCANWEEXPECTTHERETURNOFTHEUS$245BNSPENTON155MNOUTBOUNDTRIPS

BYCHINESETRAVELERS?

NumberoftripsbyChinesetravelers,2017–2019

MN

+4%

6,006

5,0015,539

131

150

2019

2017

2018

OutboundDomestic

USD245BN

Chineseoutboundtourismexpenditurein2019

©OliverWyman3

2019

level

100

vs.2019sameperiod

Macau,China(69%)Thailand(59%)

HongKong,China(48%)Australia(43%)

Singapore(37%)

Korea(26%)

Japan(18%)1

Taiwan,China(4%)

75

50

25

0

INTERNATIONALTRAVELOFCHINESETRAVELERSGRADUALLYRECOVERS,LEDBYMACAUAT

~70%AFTER6MONTHSOFREOPENING

Travelrecoveryratebydestination

%,2023YTDChinesetravelercountvs.2019YTDlevel(Jan–Jun)

COVID-19relatedbordercontrolpolicy

202020212022

2022

2023

2023

FullFullJanJulyJanJun

yearyear

1.May2023data

Source:Governmentstatistics,OliverWymananalysis

OnlinesurveyconductedinMainlandChinaduringJune17-25,20233,495surveyrespondentsofwhich,1,000respondentshave:

•Travelledinternationallyorplanningtotravelinternationallyin2023forleisure

•18-year-oldorabove,coveringGenZtoBabyBoomers

•MinimalmonthlyhouseholdincomeofRMB30,000

•65%spentatleastRMB10,000in2022onpersonalluxuryproducts(leathergoods,fashion,jewelriesandwatches,beauty)

4

OLIVERWYMANSURVEYEDAFFLUENTCHINESETRAVELERSINJUNE2023TOUNDERSTAND

THEIRPLANSFOR2023ANDBEYOND

4THINGSYOUSHOULDKNOWABOUTTHECOMEBACKOFCHINESETRAVELERS

perspective

July2023

OliverWyman’s

Chinesetravelersurvey

2023edition

©OliverWyman

OliverWyman’s

©OliverWyman5

4THINGSYOUSHOULDKNOWABOUTTHERETURNOFTHECHINESETRAVELERS

ChineseTravelerswillbefullyback2024H2atbest

Travelisexpectedtoreach60%ofpre-COVIDlevelin

2023

Fullrecoveryisunlikelytotakeplaceuntil2024H2atbest

2023isaboutrevisiting

familiardestinations

2023isallaboutrevisits,withexperiencedtravelersbacktoHongKongSARandWesternEurope

Newint’ltravelersaimatSouthKorea,

HongKongSAR,

andSingapore

1sttimeint’ltravelersseeksomethingdifferent

GenZnewworkforcearefuelingfoodietripsastheytravelfortheexperienceandcarelessaboutshopping

Well-offNewTier1cityretireesemergeinshoppingtourismwithagenerousbudgetreadytospendonshopping

Luxuryshoppersareback,butnotspendingasmuch

International

luxuryshoppingisback,butnotfor

GenZ

Especiallynewluxuryshopperspreferdomesticshoppingoverinternationalshopping

CHINESETRAVELERS

WILLBEFULLYBACK

2024H2ATBEST

Pre-COVID

int’ltravelers

Newint’ltravelers

ONLYAROUND60%OFEXPERIENCEDAFFLUENTTRAVELERSPLANTORESUMEINT’L

TRAVELLINGIN2023,WHILE30%WILLWAITFORATLEASTANOTHER2YEARS

Expectedinternationaltraveltimeline

%ofrespondents1

2023

20242025-262027+

62%

9%

23%

6%

10%

4%

29%

57%

1.MinimalmonthlyhouseholdincomeofRMB30,000

Question:Whendoyouplantotravel?Whydoyounotplantotravel?

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman7

DOMESTICTRAVELISSEENASAGREATALTERNATIVEAFTERALMOSTTHREEYEARSOF

BORDERCLOSURE

Reasonsfordeferredtravellingplan

%ofrespondents

73

47

32

53

22

Novalidpassport/visa

Limitedflightschedule

Pre-COVIDint’ltravelersNewint’ltravelers

Domestictravelissufficient

Internationaltravelistoocostly

Healthrisks

24%ofPre-COVIDtravelersarewaryofflightcost,while48%ofNon-int’ltravelersareconcernedaboutthegeneralaffordabilityofanint’ltrip

35

28

8

8

3

Question:Whydoyounotplantotravelin2023?

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman8

©OliverWyman9

FULLRECOVERYOFCHINESEOUTBOUNDLEISURETRAVELISNOTEXPECTEDUNTILTHE

SECONDHALFOF2024ATBEST

EstimatedChineseInt’lleisuretravelerrecovery2023-2026

%of2019travellevel

138

120

Post-COVID

104

NewInt’lTravelers

2019level

79

48

Pre-COVIDInt’lTravelers

24

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

2023

2024

2025

2026

Question:WherehaveyoutravelledtointernationallyforleisurebeforeCOVID?Wheredidyougoforleisuretravelin2023?Doyouplantotraveltothesedestinationsin2023?Whendoyouplantotravel?

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

2023ISABOUT

REVISITINGFAMILIAR

DESTINATIONS

©OliverWyman11

Western

Thailand

MalaysiaUnitedIndonesiaVietnam

HONGKONGREMAINSTHETOPCHOICEFORAFFLUENTCHINESETRAVELERSIN2023;

WESTERNEUROPEISTHE2NDMOSTPOPULARDESTINATION

Traveldestinationsvisitedinorplannedfor2023

%ofinternationaltravelers,monthlyhouseholdincomeofRMB30K+

23%

16%

15%

14%

13%

12%

12%

10%

9%

7%

7%

6%

4%

4%

3%

HongKong,China

Europe

(excl.UK)

Japan

South

Korea

Macau,

China

Singapore

NorthAmerica

Australia/

New

Zealand

UK

Taiwan,

China

Arab

Emirates

Question:Wheredidyougoforleisuretravelin2023?Doyouplantotraveltothesedestinationsin2023?

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

Amongtravelerswhohaveoutboundtravelplansthisyear,almost40%of

12%

10%

thosewhovisitedEuropebeforeplanto

revisitthisyear

17%

9%

EXPERIENCEDAFFLUENTINT’LTRAVELERSAREFIRSTHEADINGBACKTOFAMILIARPLACES

Re-visitorsvs.newvisitorbydestinations

Completedtripsorplannedtripsfor2023,%oftravelers

PeoplewhohavenevervisitedPeoplewhovisitedbefore

17%32%

11%37%

10%27%

20%

21%

11%

23%

8%19%

7%

20%

5%

17%

5%

17%

5%

14%

4%

16%

3%12%

HongKong,China

WesternEurope(excl.UK)

Japan

Korea

Macau,China

Singapore

Thailand

NorthAmerica

Australia/NewZealand

Taiwan,China

UK

Malaysia

UnitedArabEmirates

Indonesia

Question:WherehaveyoutravelledtointernationallyforleisurebeforeCOVID?Wheredidyougoforleisuretravelin2023?Doyouplantotraveltothesedestinationsin2023?

12

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman

WEEXPECTTHETOPDESTINATIONSTOSEEAMUCHSTRONGERREBOUNDIN2023H2,WITH

SHOPPINGATTHEVERYCOREOFOUTBOUNDTRIPS

2023topdestinationsandkeytravelerprofile

InternationaltravelerswithmonthlyhouseholdincomeofRMB30K+

Topdestinations

%ofint’lCNtravelers

Timeofvisit1

2023H1

2023H2(planned)

Rankamongaffluenttravelers

ExperiencedNew

Toppurpose

ofvisiting

HongKongSAR23%10%18%

1

2

Shopping

WesternEurope

16%

6%

11%

2

Shopping

Japan

15%

6%

10%

3

Shopping

SouthKorea

14%

6%

9%

1

Shopping

Singapore

12%

5%

8%

3

Shopping

Thailand

12%

6%

8%

Food&shopping

1.Sumexceedsthatoftotal%internationaltravelersduetorevisits

Question:Wheredidyougotoforyourlasttrip?Whereareyouplanningtotraveltoforyourupcomingtrip?Whatdoyoulookforlookforthemostwhentravellinginternationallyagain?

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

13

©OliverWyman

JAPANANDKOREAWILLGETASTRONGERREBOUNDINH2NOWTHEBANONGROUPTOURS

ISLIFTED,ESPECIALLYWITHANINCREASINGINTERESTINGROUPTOURS

Modeofoutboundtravelofpasttripsin2019vs.plannedtripsin2023

%oftrips,affluentChinesetravelers

37

37

55

46

71

53

61

51

63

63

54

49

47

45

39

29

20192023201920232019202320192023

BabyBoomersGenXMillennialsGenZ

Individualtravel

Conductedtours

Travelagenciesandbusinessrelyingonconductedgrouptours(e.g.duty-freestores,groupmealoperators)willbenefitfromthegrowinginterestsofgrouptoursandtheliftingofgrouptourban

OnAugust10,2023,theChineseGovernmentliftedtheCOVID-erabanonorganizedgrouptourson78countries,including:

–SouthKorea

–Japan

–Germany

–UK

–US

–Australia

Notes:

February2023:Banliftedfor20countriesincludingThailand,Singapore,

Switzerland,NewZealand

March2023:Banliftedfor40newcountriesincludingFrance,Italy,Spain,

Greece,Vietnam

Question:Regardingyour2019trip,didyoutravelwithaconductedtourgroup?Foryourplannedtravelin2023,areyouplanningtotravelwithaconductedtourgroup?

14

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman

1STTIMEINT’LTRAVELERS

SEEKSOMETHINGDIFFERENT

©OliverWyman16

GenZNewWorkforce

30%ofnewtravelers

TWOKEYSEGMENTSREPRESENT~50%OFTHENEWAFFLUENTINT’LTRAVELERSIN2023

NewTier1cityretirees

15%ofnewtravelers

©OliverWyman17

2023trend:Military-styletravel

Low-budgetaction-packedtravelovershortperiodoftimewithlittle/norest

33-hour

Beijingtrip

24-hour

Seoultrip

48-hour

KansaiJapantrip

1.Comparedto16%amongexperiencedInt’ltravelers

GENZNEWWORKFORCEREPRESENT30%OFTHENEWAFFLUENTTRAVELERSANDHAVEA

UNIQUEWAYOFTRAVELING

GenZnewworkforce

30%ofnewtravelers1

•Workingfulltimewithstableincome

•95%areunmarried,and63%aresingle

•68%hasspent>10KRMBonluxuryproductsin2022

HongKongSAR,MacauSAR,Japan,Korea

Top

destinations

Travelplan

•Travelonatighterbudgetthanmostaffluenttravelers

•Theirtravelshoppingbudgetis-33%lowerthanexperiencedGenZtravelers

•Inquisitiveaboutfood,uniqueplacesandexperiences

Source:Douyin,LittleRedBook,Newsarticles,Weibo,OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

ACTION-PACKEDLOW-BUDGETSHORTTRIPSAREINCREASINGLYPOPULARAMONGGENZ

A12-hourMilitary-StyleTravelinHongKong

9:17AM

ArrivinginHK

10:10AM

VisitingPalaceMuseum

11:30AM

Travelto

Mongkok

12:20PM

LocalfoodinMongkok

1:41PM

Eggtartatlocalbakery

1:50pm2:00pm

PhotoatChungkingPhotoat

Mansions1VictoriaHarbour

2:30pm2:55PM3:12PM

Ice-creambyStarFerrytoWalkingto

thePierCentralQueensRoad

10:00pm8:30PM7:45PM6:58PM6:30PM6:23PM5:45pm5:33PM4:41PM4:02PM3:44PM

DepartingSightseeingatCrossingbackLocalfoodinWalkingtoArrivinginPhotoatArrivinginTakingthebusVisitingTakingthemid-

fromHKAvenueofStarstheharbourCausewayBayVictoriaPark4TinHauTimesSquareMallCausewayBaytoSaiYingPunTaiKwun3levelsescalator2

1.Afamouslargeresidential/commercialbuildingforHongKongethnicminorities;2.Longestoutdoorcoveredescalatorsystemintheworld;3.Aconservedheritagebuildingcomplexforheritage,artsanddining;4.SecondlargestpublicparkinHongKongSource:LittleRedBook,OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman18

©OliverWyman19

NewTier1CityRetiree’stoppurposesofinternationaltravel

%ofrespondents,Top3choices

61

57

46

46

39

36

14

Shopping

ExploringthelocalcultureExploringthescenery TastingthefoodNewexperiences

Visitinguniqueplaces

Activitiesandsports

NEWTIER1CITYRETIREESREPRESENT15%OFTHENEWTRAVELERS,THEYHAVEAHIGH

TRAVELBUDGETANDTRAVELINASIAFORSHOPPINGIN2023

NewTier1cityretirees

15%ofnewtravelers1

•Retiredandhaveindependentchildren

•LivinginNewTier1cities2

•54%hasspent>10KRMBonluxuryproductsin2022

Korea,Japan,MacauSAR,HongKongSAR

Top

destinations

•Travellingonabundantbudget

(+32%higherthanaveragenewtravelers)

•+67%higherbudgetofshoppingthanexperiencedBabyBoomers

•Choosetoshopabroadforbetterbrandchoicesandcomprehensivecollections

Travelplan

1.Comparedto5%amongexperiencedInt’ltravelers.2.NewTier1cityare15commercialhubcitiesshortofbecomingtier1cities,notablecitiesincludeChengdu,Hangzhou,Chongqing,Wuhan,Xi'an,andSuzhou

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

LUXURYSHOPPERSAREBACK,BUT

KEEPMAJORITYOFSPENDINGAT

HOME

©OliverWyman21

13%

SHOPPINGROSETOTHETOPASTHEKEYPURPOSEOFTRAVEL,ANDFOODEXPERIENCEIS

NOWTHESECONDMOSTIMPORTANTREASONTOTRAVEL

Toppurposesofinternationalleisuretravelbyagegroup

%ofrespondents,Top3choices

Pre-pandemic(2019)Post-pandemic(2023)

Exploringthescenery61%59%Shopping

Enjoyingnicefood

Exploringthescenery

Exploringthelocalculture

58%

57%

Shopping

46%

53%

44%

41%

Visitinguniqueplaces

TryingoutnewexperiencesParticipatingineventsorsports

40%

36%

33%

21%

Exploringthelocalculture

Enjoyingnicefood

Visitinguniqueplaces

39%

Tryingoutnewexperiences

Participatingineventsorsports

Question:WhatwereyourkeyreasonstotravelinternationallyforleisurebeforeCOVID?Whatdoyoulookforthemostwhentravellinginternationallyagain?

Howmuchdidyouspendonthepasttripacrossthesecategories(2016-2019)?Whatisyourbudgetforyournexttravel(2023)?

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman22

50%

45%

44%

41%

33%

SHOPPINGISRECOGNIZEDASTHETOPPURPOSEOFTRAVELINGACROSSAGEGROUPS,WITH

THEEXCEPTIONOFGENZ

Toppurposesofpost-pandemicinternationalleisuretravelbyagegroup

%ofrespondents,Top3choices

BabyboomersGenXMillennialsGenZ

55%

60%

62%

66%

Shopping

52%

59%

62%

50%

55%

56%

Exploringthelocalculture

Exploringthescenery

Enjoyingnicefood

35%

35%

33%

22%

44%

38%

34%

32%

39%

33%

20%

32%

14%

Visitinguniqueplaces

Tryingoutnewexperiences

Participatingineventsorsports

Question:Whatdoyoulookforlookforthemostwhentravellinginternationallyagain?

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman23

Abroad

38%

Domestic

62%

OVERSEASLUXURYSPENDINGWILLLIKELYNOTRECOVERTOPRE-COVIDLEVEL,WITH~20%

OFCHINESE’SLUXURYSPENDINGEXPECTEDTOBESPENTABROADIN2023

Estimatedshareofluxuryspending,abroadvs.domestic,2023

%oftotalluxuryspending

LuxuryshopperswhoHAVE

shoppedabroadpreviouslyand

(will)travelinternationallyin2023

11%

89%

LuxuryshopperswhohaveNEVER

shoppedabroadand(will)travel

internationallyin2023

Only~33%ofnewluxuryshoppersconsiderexploringinternationalluxuryshoppinginthefuture,vs85%oftheexperiencedinternationalluxuryshoppers

Onaverage,

~20%ofluxuryspendingisexpectedtohappenabroadin2023

Question:Howmuchdoyouexpecttospendonluxuryitemsthisyear?Howmuchofyourtotalluxuryspendingdoyouexpecttospendinternationallythisyear?Willyouconsidershoppingluxuryoverseasintheforeseeablefuture?

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

©OliverWyman24

Onshorecollection

iscomprehensiveenough

BRANDSWILLNEEDMORETHANPRODUCTAVAILABILITYTO(RE)ATTRACTLUXURY

SHOPPERSOFFSHORE

Topreasonsforluxuryshopperspreferringdomesticluxuryshopping

%ofrespondentswhopreferdomesticshoppinginthefuture

#1

#2

Preferredbrandsare

alreadyavailableinChina

55%

36%

Question:Whydoyoupreferluxuryshoppingdomesticallyoverinternationally?Pleaseselectyourtop3reasons

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),OliverWymananalysis

#3

Preferbuyingluxurywhentheywant,notonlyduringtravel

36%

©OliverWyman25

60

5353

48

LUXURYSHOPPERSWHOONLYSHOPPEDINCHINAHAVEAMUCHHIGHEREXPECTATIONON

OVERSEASCUSTOMERSERVICESVSTHOSEWITHEXPERIENCEOVERSEAS

Perceivedbenefitsofluxuryshoppingduringinternationaltravel

%ofluxuryshopperswith/withoutpre-COVIDtravelexperience

Brandswouldhavetoliveuptothehighexpectation,orpost-COVIDnewtravelerswilllikelybedisappointed

47

47

40

30

30

28

+20%

pts

Moreattractiveprices

Bettercustomer

service

Betterbrand

availability

Betterproductavailability

Moreattractive

storeenvironment

Question:Whydoyoupreferluxuryshoppinginternationallyoverdomestically?

Source:OliverWyman’sChinesetravelersurvey(Jun2023),TheNewFacesofChineseLuxuryShoppers(2021),OliverWymananalysis

TraveledonlyafterCOVID

TraveledbeforeCOVID

©OliverWyman26

PERSONALIZEDSERVICESCANBETHEKEYTOWIN