2020年航运报告（英）-68正式版

DNVreportshipping2020shipping202002:

shippiNg2020C

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sexecutivesummaryintroduction0406Chapter1:trendsanddrivers08tꢀꢂwoꢄldꢂconomyꢃnddꢂmꢃndfoꢄꢁꢂꢃboꢄnꢂꢆꢄꢃnꢁꢈoꢄꢆenvꢅꢄonmꢂnꢆꢃlꢄꢂꢇulꢃꢆꢅonꢁtꢂcꢀnoloꢇyꢃndꢂnꢂꢄꢇyꢂffꢅcꢅꢂncyFuꢂlꢆꢄꢂndꢁ10162024Chapter2:Futurescenarios26Wꢀyꢁcꢂnꢃꢄꢅoꢁ?2830323436scꢂnꢃꢄꢅoa:“Fullꢁꢆꢂꢃmꢃꢀꢂꢃd”scꢂnꢃꢄꢅoB:“Knowꢅnꢇꢆꢀꢂꢄoꢈꢂꢁ”scꢂnꢃꢄꢅoC:“sꢅnkoꢄꢁwꢅm”scꢂnꢃꢄꢅoD:“inꢆꢀꢂdoldꢄumꢁ”Chapter3:technologyinvestment3840tꢂcꢀnoloꢇyꢅnvꢂꢁꢆmꢂnꢆ–hꢅꢁꢆoꢄꢅcꢃluꢈꢆꢃkꢂofnꢂwꢆꢂcꢀnoloꢇꢅꢂꢁ–sꢀꢅꢈownꢂꢄꢁuꢄvꢂyChapter4:methodologyandassumptions4648Mꢂꢆꢀodoloꢇyꢃndꢃꢁꢁumꢈꢆꢅonꢁ–sꢅmulꢃꢆꢅonmodꢂl–aꢁꢁumꢈꢆꢅonꢁChapter5:technologyuptakeinshipping2012–20205254tꢂcꢀnoloꢇyuꢈꢆꢃkꢂꢅnꢁꢀꢅꢈꢈꢅnꢇ2012–2020–rꢂꢁulꢆꢁ–Bꢃllꢃꢁꢆwꢃꢆꢂꢄ–sOX–NOX–CO2ꢃndꢂnꢂꢄꢇyꢂffꢅcꢅꢂncy–Fuꢂlmꢅxꢃnddꢂmꢃnd–sꢂnꢁꢅꢆꢅvꢅꢆyꢃnꢃlyꢁꢅꢁChapter6:trendsanddriversbeyond20206264tꢄꢂndꢁꢃnddꢄꢅvꢂꢄꢁbꢂyond2020–Fuꢂl–rꢂꢇulꢃꢆꢅonꢁ–innovꢃꢆꢅonꢃndꢃdoꢈꢆꢅonofnꢂwꢁoluꢆꢅonꢁshippiNg2020:03ExecutivesummaryBaꢀedontrendꢀꢂntꢁeworldeconomyandtranꢀꢃortdemand,marꢂnereꢄulatꢂonꢀandtecꢁnoloꢄy,weꢁavedeꢀcrꢂbedfourꢃoꢀꢀꢂbledeveloꢃmentꢃatꢁꢀaꢀwemovetowardꢀ2020,scenarꢂoꢀꢅtoD.ꢆꢁeꢀeꢀcenarꢂoꢀꢄꢂveꢂnꢃuttoaꢀꢂmulatꢂonmodeldeveloꢃedtoaꢀꢀeꢀꢀlꢂkelytecꢁnoloꢄyꢂnveꢀtmentꢂntꢁeworldfleetfrom2012to2020.Thisprojecthasusedascenarioapproachtoassisttodescribelikelyoutcomesneedforlowsulphurfuel.Evengivenalargeontechnologyuptakeinthemaritimeindustry.ThefourscenariosA–Deachnumberofscrubbers,themajorpartoftheprovideadifferentpictureofhowtheshippingfleetwouldappearin2020.Thefleetwillrunondistillates.DꢀVestimatesthatthedemandforLꢀꢁwillbe8-33mil-scenariosaredescribedindetailslaterinthisreport,buttobetterappreciatethemainfindings,asdescribedbelow,thescenarioscanbesummarizedasfollows:liontonnesin2020,dependingonthesce-narioselected,theequivalentof400to1,700MMBtu.TheconsumptionofꢂFOwill,accordingtooursimulations,dropfromapproximately290milliontonnesin2019toonly80-110milliontonnesin2020,unlesstheglobalsulphurlimitisdelayed,inwhichcaseꢂFOdemandwillbeover300milliontonnesannually.SCENAꢀIOA(“Fullsteamahead”):Higheconomicgrowth;highfuelprices;littleregulatoryorstakeholderpressureontheenvironmentSCENAꢀIOB(“Knowingtheropes”):Higheconomicgrowth;LNGpriceslowanddecoupledfromoilprices;highregulatoryandstakeholderpressureontheenvironmentSCENAꢀIOC(“Sinkorswim”):Loweconomicgrowth;lowfuelpricesingeneralbuthighdemandkeepsthemarinegasoil(MGO)pricesup;highregulatoryandstakeholderpressureontheenvironmentACDBNoꢀꢁꢂꢃꢀondeꢀtꢂllateꢀ40,000ꢀꢁꢂꢃꢀondeꢀtꢂllateꢀSCENAꢀIOD(“Inthedoldrums”):Loweconomicgrowth;LNGpricesdecoupledfromoilprices;lowregulatoryorstakeholderpressureontheenvironment.Finding3:Newbuildingsin2020willemitupto10to35%lessCO2thantoday’sships,andtheEnergyEfficiencyDesignIndex(EEDI)willbeadriverformorethanhalfofthereduction.Environmentallyefficientdesignswillgradu-allyimprovethroughoutthisdecadeandanewbuildingcontractedin2020will,depend-ingontype,emit10-35%lessCO2thanacurrentshipwithanEEDꢃequaltotheꢃMOreferenceline.Thelargestreductionwillbeexperiencedwithtank,bulkandcontainervessels.Thisstudyhasidentifiedkeyfindingscon-cerningthemainregulatoryissues,highlight-ingimportantconsiderationsforshipownersandoperatorsintheperiodleadingupto2020.Thekeyfindingsfromthesimulationmodelaresummarizedhere.plyarethere.Wecouldseeuptohalfofthenewbuildingsbeingdeliveredwithgasfuelledenginesby2020.CADBFinding1:Morethan1in10newbuildingsinthenext8yearswillbedeliveredwithgasfuelledengines.NoLNgfuelledꢀꢁꢂꢃꢀ5,000LNgfuelledꢀꢁꢂꢃꢀThenumberofliquefiednaturalgas(Lꢀꢁ)fuelledshipsthrough2020dependsheavilyonfuelprices.WithaLꢀꢁprice10%aboveheavyfueloil(ꢂFO),7-8%ofnewbuildingsfrom2012to2020willbeabletorunonLꢀꢁ.ꢃftheLꢀꢁpricegoesdownto30%belowꢂFO,theuptakeofLꢀꢁincreasesto13%and,intheextremecaseofLꢀꢁpriceFinding2:In2020,thedemandformarinedistillatescouldbeashighas200-250milliontonnesannually.Thecurrentglobaldemandformarinedistil-oftheEEDꢃrequirements.EEDꢃwillbeanlatesisapproximately30milliontonnesimportantdriverfortheremainingreduc-annually.The0.1%limitinEmissionControltionsinparticularfrom2020forwardwhenBetweenone-thirdandone-halfofthisreductionwillbemotivatedbycost-efficiencyaloneandwouldbeimplementedregardlessAreas(ECA)willincreasethedemandtoꢄhase2oftheEEDꢃisimplemented,requir-ingnewshipstobe20%belowꢃMOrefer-encelines.70%belowꢂFO,theLꢀꢁshareofnewbuild-approximately45-50milliontonnesby2015.ingsis30percent.ꢃntotalnumbers,13%isequivalenttoapproximately1,000ships.Theglobalsulphurlimit,ifeffectivebegin-ningin2020,combinedwiththe20%EEDꢃꢂowever,thelargestincreasewillbeexperi-encedin2020,withtheintroductionoftheglobalsulphurlimit.Thismarksahugeincreaseintheneedfordistillates,anABDCreductionrequirement,willhaveasignificantincreaseofupto200-250milliontonnes.Noꢀcrubberꢀ20,000ꢀcrubberꢀimpactontheimplementationofgasfuelledenginesprovidedthecapacityandfuelsup-ꢃntheshortterm,theuseofLꢀꢁandscrub-berswillhaveonlyalimitedimpactonthe04:

shippiNg2020Finding4:Scrubbersareasignificantoptionafter2020.notenterintoforce,asignificantnumberofinstallationsoftreatmentsystemsisstillexpected.Thefulleffectoftheregulatoryrequirementsontechnologyuptakewillcomeafter2020,whentheꢀMOglobalsulphurlimitandꢄhase2oftheEEDꢀareimplemented.Thesearebyfarthestrongestdriversandmayleadtofundamentalchangesintheshippingindustry.Whentheglobalsulphurlimitisenforcedin2020,shipswouldberequiredtorunonlowsulphurfuelorcleantheexhaustcontinu-ously.Thiswillhaveasignificantimpactontheimplementationofscrubbers.Thistech-nologymaypotentiallybefittedtothousandsofshipsifthereisavailabilityandthecapacityThemainpeakisexpectedin2017,whenthelastshipswithmediumballastwatercapacityhavetoretrofitatthesametimeastherestofthefleethastostartretrofitting.After2019,theretrofittingisexpectedtobelargelytodeliver.ꢀnꢁcenarioC,withhighLꢂꢃpricecompleted.andMꢃOprice,thenumberofscrubbersin2020isexpectedtobenearly20,000,whileinꢁcenariosBandD,13-14,000wouldbeCABDexpected.NoBWtreatmentBWtreatmentforallꢀꢁꢂꢃꢀTheuncertaintyofwhetherthelimitwillbeenforcedin2020orin2025maydelaytheuseofscrubbers,asshipownerswouldnotbeexpectedtotakeontheadditionalcostwith-outthisbeingresolved.ꢀnꢁcenarioA,theglobalsulphurlimitwillnotcomebeforeFinding6:Atleast30-40%ofnewbuildingswillbefittedwithEGꢀorSCꢀby2016.TheTierꢀꢀꢀ80%reductionrequirementinECAsisthemainchallengeforꢂOx.ꢀn2025andthenumberofscrubbersinplaceinꢁcenariosAandC,approximately40%of2020isverylimited.shipsbuiltbetween2016and2020willhaveimplementedanexhaustgasrecirculationEventhoughtheremaybeasignificantuptake(EꢃR)orselectivecatalyticreactors(ꢁCR)ofscrubbersfrom2020,inꢁcenarioCwiththehighestLꢂꢃandMꢃOprice,whichisfavourableforscrubbers,therewouldonlybeamodest50installationsannuallyupto2019.system,whileinꢁcenariosBandD,thenum-bersareapproximately30%and35%respec-tively.Thedifferenceinfuelpricesseemstoaccountforthisdifference.WhenthepriceofLꢂꢃislowcomparedtoMꢃO,ꢂOxrequirementsaremetwithLꢂꢃfuelledengines.D

CAB3,000ꢀꢁꢂꢃꢀ>10%CO2reductꢂon8,000ꢀꢁꢂꢃꢀ>10%CO2reductꢂonWithoutaTierꢀꢀꢀcompliantengine,ashipbuiltafter2016willnotbeabletoenterthetwoexistingECAs.ThequestionthatremainstobeanswerediswhetherashipFinding5:BallastwatertreatmentsystemswillownerwilloptforaTierꢀꢀꢀengineevenifbeinstalledonatleasthalfoftheworldfleet.TheBallastWaterManagementConvention(BWMC)hasnotyetenteredintoforce,butthescheduleformandatorytreatmentofballastwaterisfixedindependentofwhentheconventionisratified.ꢀnaddition,theUꢁhasdecidedtoimplementasimilarschemeforallshipsinUꢁwaters,whichwouldforceasignificantpartoftheworldfleettoimple-mentatreatmentsystemirrespectiveoftheshipisinitiallynotplannedforsailinginanECA,asthesecond-handvalueoftheshipmightbelowerduetothelossofgeographicflexibility.DCBANoꢀꢁꢂꢃꢀwꢂtꢁꢄgꢅorsCꢅ2,500ꢀꢁꢂꢃꢀwꢂtꢁꢄgꢅorsCꢅBWMCprogress.ForthetwoꢁcenariosAandB,whichassumetheballastconventiondoesshippiNg2020:05introductꢀonsꢀꢁꢂꢂꢁnꢃ2020–areꢂortontecꢀnoloꢃyuꢂtakefortꢀemarꢁtꢁmeꢄꢀꢁꢂꢂꢁnꢃꢁnduꢄtry.Wꢀentravellꢁnꢃaroundtꢀeꢃlobe,iꢀavereꢂeatedlybeenaꢄkedtꢀeꢄamequeꢄtꢁon:Wꢀꢁcꢀtecꢀnoloꢃꢁeꢄ,knownorunknown,doyoutꢀꢁnkwꢁllbeadoꢂtedbytꢀeꢄꢀꢁꢂꢂꢁnꢃꢁnduꢄtryꢁntꢀeyearꢄtocome?Wꢀththeworldeconomyꢀnafragꢀlecondꢀtꢀon,ꢀtꢀsnotonlyfꢀnancꢀalanalysts,bankersandpolꢀcymakerswhowouldlꢀketoknowwhattheworldwꢀlllooklꢀketowardstheendofthꢀsdecade.Theshꢀppꢀngcommunꢀtyꢀs,rꢀghtly,askꢀngthesamequestꢀons;Whꢀchdrꢀverswꢀllꢀnfluencetechnologychoꢀcesꢀntheyearstocome?Whꢀchtechnologꢀesaremostlꢀkelytobeadoptedbytheꢀndustry?inotherwords,basedonprojectꢀonsandlꢀkelyꢃeedlesstosay,therearenoprecꢀseanswerstothequestꢀonsdꢀscussedꢀnthꢀsreport.Thatsaꢀd,weconsꢀderDꢃVtobeverywellposꢀ-tꢀonedtoꢀdentꢀfyanddꢀscussfuturetechnol-ogytrends.Ourvoꢀceꢀsgroundedꢀntheexpertꢀseandskꢀllsofourtrulyglobalworkforce.Theexperꢀencedprojectteambehꢀndthꢀsreportrepresentsallaspectsofꢀnternatꢀonalshꢀppꢀng:commercꢀal,technꢀcal,regulatory,envꢀronmentalandmodellꢀng/sꢀmulatꢀonexperts.ThecoreprojectteamhasconsꢀstedofOleVꢀdarꢃꢀlsen,ToreLongva,ChrꢀsterFarstad,MagneBerg,TorꢀlBendꢀksvoll,LeꢀfBraute,ꢄergeꢄchwalenstockerandJannꢀckeWꢀtsøplusꢀmportantcontrꢀbutꢀonfrommanyotherDꢃVpeople.ThanksalsotoCoorMedꢀawhꢀchhasbeenresponsꢀbleforthedesꢀgnofthefꢀnalproduct.Furthermore,weenjoycloseworkꢀngrelatꢀon-shꢀpswꢀthshꢀpowners,operators,yardsanddevelopmentscenarꢀos,andfromatechnologysupplꢀersfromallovertheworld.Wealsoperspectꢀve,whatwꢀlltheworldfleetlooklꢀkeꢀn2020?workactꢀvelywꢀthꢀnternatꢀonalforums,suchastheiMO,flagstatesandmanyotherorgan-ꢀsatꢀons.Eachyearwerunhundredsofjoꢀntꢀndustryprojectsandothertechnologyqualꢀ-fꢀcatꢀonprojectswꢀththemarꢀtꢀmecommunꢀty,andweꢀnvestcloseto6%ofourrevenueꢀnresearch&ꢀnnovatꢀonactꢀvꢀtꢀes.Wehopewehavecommunꢀcatedourenthu-sꢀasmforthesubjectꢀnthꢀsreport,andwedohopeyouwꢀllenjoythefollowꢀngpages–happyreadꢀng!ourobjectivehasbeentoshareourviewsontechnologyuptakeꢁerhapsmostꢀmportantly,DꢃVꢀsanꢀnde-pendentfoundatꢀonwꢀthnostakesꢀnthecommercꢀalfateofanytechnologythatmaybeapreferredchoꢀceꢀnthefuture.Regardlessoffuturetechnologychoꢀces,ourpurposeꢀs,andwꢀllalwaysbe,to“safeguardlꢀfe,propertyandtheenvꢀronment”.ꢁartofthꢀspurposeꢀsalsothustobetheleadꢀngfꢀrmꢀntermsoftechnology.towards2020andbeyond,andtostimulatediscussionsaboutlikelyoptionsFortheindustry.ꢅOꢆꢇ.sVꢇNsꢇNpreꢄꢁdent,DNVMarꢁtꢁmeandOꢁl&gaꢄꢁredꢀctꢀngthefutureꢀsarꢀskybusꢀness.ꢂowever,ꢀnthꢀsreportwehavedonejustthat.Ourobjectꢀvehasbeentoshareourvꢀewsontechnologyuptaketowards2020andbeyond,andtostꢀmulatedꢀscussꢀonsaboutlꢀkelyoptꢀonsfortheꢀndustry.Wewꢀlladressquestꢀonssuchashowwethꢀnkenvꢀronmen-talregulatꢀonswꢀllꢀnfluencetheuseofꢃOx,inthefꢀnalanalysꢀs,theresultshꢀngeonalloftheassumptꢀonsmade,someofwhꢀcharewelldocumentedandacknowledgedwhꢀleothersaremorecontentꢀousordꢀffꢀculttoquantꢀfy.WehavebasedourscenarꢀosandassumptꢀonsꢄOx,BallastWater(BW)andꢅreenhouseꢅasoncomprehensꢀvelꢀteratureresearch,ques-(ꢅꢂꢅ)relatedtechnologꢀesꢀnthefuture.Wꢀllscrubbersdomꢀnate,orwꢀlltherebeasꢀgnꢀfꢀ-cantswꢀtchtoLꢀquefꢀedꢃaturalꢅas(Lꢃꢅ)asfuel?Whatwꢀllthespeedofꢀmplementa-tꢀonbe?tꢀonnaꢀres,externalforecastsand,fꢀnally,‘guesstꢀmates’wherenecessary.Thus,eventhoughthꢀsꢀsnotascꢀentꢀfꢀcreportꢀnwhꢀcheverythꢀnghasbeenmetꢀculouslyquantꢀfꢀed,weareconfꢀdentthattheresultspresentedprovꢀdeasolꢀdguꢀdeastowhatwecanexpectꢀntheyearstocome.06:

shippiNg2020shippiNg2020:0708:

shippiNg2020Cꢀaꢃꢂer1:Trendsanddriverssꢀꢅꢃꢃꢅnꢆꢅꢁacomꢃlexandvolaꢂꢅleꢅnduꢁꢂryꢂꢀaꢂꢅꢁconꢁꢂanꢂlynavꢅꢆaꢂꢅnꢆꢂꢀemanyꢂwꢅꢁꢂꢁandꢂurnꢁofꢂꢀeꢆlobaleconomy.Wꢀꢅlecurrenꢂlyꢆoꢅnꢆꢂꢀrouꢆꢀaꢂouꢆꢀꢂꢅme,ꢂꢀeꢅnduꢁꢂryꢅꢁcyclꢅcalbynaꢂureandꢀaꢁexꢃerꢅencedmanyꢃeakꢁandꢂrouꢆꢀꢁꢅnꢂꢀeꢃaꢁꢂ.gꢅvenꢂꢀecomꢃlexꢅꢂyꢂꢀaꢂcꢀaracꢂerꢅꢁeꢁꢂꢀeꢁꢀꢅꢃꢃꢅnꢆꢅnduꢁꢂry,ꢀowcanoneꢃredꢅcꢂwꢀaꢂꢂecꢀnoloꢆꢅeꢁwꢅllbeꢅmꢃlemenꢂedꢅnꢂꢀeworldfleeꢂby2020?inꢂꢀꢅꢁcꢀaꢃꢂer,welookaꢂfourꢅmꢃorꢂanꢂdrꢅvꢅnꢆforceꢁandꢂrendꢁꢂꢀaꢂwebelꢅevewꢅllꢅmꢃacꢂfuꢂureꢂecꢀnoloꢆy‘uꢃꢂake’andꢂꢀedeveloꢃmenꢂofꢂꢀeworldfleeꢂaꢁwemoveꢂowardꢁ2020.tꢀefꢅrꢁꢂꢃarꢂofꢂꢀecꢀaꢃꢂerouꢂlꢅneꢁꢂꢀeeconomꢅcfacꢂorꢁꢂꢀaꢂmayaffecꢂꢂꢀedemandforandꢁuꢃꢃlyofveꢁꢁelꢁ.tꢀeꢁecondꢃarꢂofꢂꢀecꢀaꢃꢂerꢂakeꢁacloꢁerlookaꢂꢂꢀereꢆulaꢂoryouꢂlook,wꢀꢅleꢂꢀeꢂꢀꢅrdꢃarꢂdꢅꢁcuꢁꢁeꢁvarꢅouꢁꢂecꢀnoloꢆꢅeꢁaꢁꢁoluꢂꢅonꢁꢂoꢂꢀeꢃoꢁꢁꢅblefuꢂurereꢆulaꢂorylandꢁcaꢃe.inꢂꢀefꢅnalꢃarꢂofꢂꢀecꢀaꢃꢂer,weꢂakeacloꢁerlookaꢂfuelꢂrendꢁandꢃoꢁꢁꢅbledeveloꢃmenꢂꢅnꢂꢀeꢃrꢅceꢁofvarꢅouꢁꢂyꢃeꢁoffuel.index••••

tꢀeworldeconomyanddemandforꢁeaborneꢂranꢁꢃorꢂ••••

ꢄnvꢅronmenꢂalreꢆulaꢂꢅonꢁ••••

tecꢀnoloꢆyandenerꢆyeffꢅcꢅency••••

Fuelꢂrendꢁ10162024shippiNg2020:09••••

Theworldeconomyanddemandforseabornetransporttꢀeworldeconomyꢁꢂꢀꢁꢃꢀlydeꢄendenꢅonꢂꢀꢁꢄꢄꢁnꢃ,wꢀꢁcꢀmeeꢅꢂaꢄꢄroxꢁmaꢅely85%ofꢅꢀeꢃlobaldemandforꢅranꢂꢄorꢅ.Overꢅꢁme,cꢀanꢃeꢂꢁnꢃlobalꢃrowꢅꢀareexꢄecꢅedꢅoleadꢅocꢀanꢃeꢂꢁnꢅꢀeworld’ꢂꢂeaborneꢅradecenꢅreofꢃravꢁꢅy.Theshippingmarketischaracterizedtoagreatdegreebymarketcycles.Thisgrownbyanaverageof30percent.Today,volatilitycreatesapotentialforhighprofits,butalsoforconsiderablelosses.Chinaisbyfarthelargestcontainermarket.Withthecurrentreducedlevelofworldeconomicgrowthcoincidingwithover-China’seconomicgrowthstartedinthe1990s.Duringthedecadebetween1998capacityintheglobalfleet,theshippingmarketisexperiencingtoughconditions.Thenextfewyearswillbecriticalforshippingandforthebalancebetweensup-plyanddemand.Threeeconomicareascurrentlydefinethemaritimetrade:NorthAmerica,EuropeandAsia.Theshiftintherelativeimportanceoftheseareaswillaffectthemaritimeindustrysubstantiallyintheyearstocome.and2008,Chinaadded1billiontonnesofseabornecargoandrepresented60%ofworldgrowthinseabornetrade.ThebulkcarriershippingboomwasdrivenbyChinesesteelproduction,whichpeakedatcloseto50milliontonnespermonthin2008.Animme-diatedemandforshippingresultedintherapidcontractingofnewvessels.ꢃqueezedshipyardcapacityledtosubstantialgrowthinnewbuildingprices.Forexample,newCapesizebulkpricesincreasedfrom$35-40millionin2003to$95-100millionin2008.ꢀnaddition,in2008-2009,theworldshippingorderbookwascloseto50%oftheexistingworldfleet.Duringthepastdecades,theworldeconomyhasdemonstratedstablegrowth,occasionallyinterruptedbyrecessionsofdifferentmagni-tudes.ꢀn2009-2010,theworldeconomywasThereafter,theworldsituationchanged;thecanalwasreopenedandUꢃoilimportsshrank,resultinginlowerthanexpectedoveralldemand.ThisledtoaweakshippinginitsweakeststatesincetheꢁreatDepressionmarketduringthe1980s.Thepoormarketofthe1930s,butithasbeenslowlyrecoveringconditionscausedbankruptcies,distresssalessince.Ascanbeseeninthefigurebelow,worldeconomicgrowthandthedemandforseabornetransportarecloselylinked.Agen-eralobservationisthatduringperiodsoflowworldꢁrossDomesticꢂroduct(ꢁDꢂ)growth,thevolumeofseabornetradeshrinks.oftonnageandhigherscrappingrates.Thesituationstartedtoimproveduringthe1990s.From2002,globalisationandtherapiddevel-opmentofAsianeconomieshaveledtoagreatdealofaddeddemandintheshippingmarket.Thisresultedinunprecedentedcontractingofnewtonnage,boostingtheorderbookbyasmuchas500percent.Thefinancialcrisisin2008ledtoworldtradeshrinkingdramatically.ꢄaturally,thiscreatedasubstantialoversupplyoftonnageinthemarketwhichinevitablyledtodepressedfreightratesandweakmarketsingeneral.ꢃince1995,therehavebeenrelativelylargevariationsinthegrowthoftheworldfleetandseabornetrade.Therelationshipbetweenthedemandforshippingandthecapacityofthefleetwasquitebalancedduringthe1960s.Thiswasfollowedbyaperiodofheavyinvestmentinshippingduringthe1970s,withincreasingUꢃimportsandtheclosingoftheꢃuezCanal.regionalvariationsChangesinmerchantshiptradepatternshavetraditionallyfollowedregionalvariationsinworldgrowth.ꢀnthe1970s,thecontainertradewasdominatedbyJapan,whereas,since2000,China’sannualcontainertradehas14%12%10%8%6%4%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%9%7%5%3%1%2%0%-1%1995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%-3%-5%-7%TotalfleetSeabornetradeSeabornetrade(left-handaxis)WorldGDP(right-handaxis)Fꢁꢃure1:tꢀerelaꢅꢁonꢂꢀꢁꢄbeꢅweengDpꢃrowꢅꢀandꢂeaborneꢅradeꢃrowꢅꢀ.source:ClarkꢂonꢇeꢂearcꢀservꢁceꢂLꢅd.Fꢁꢃure2:growꢅꢀꢁnꢅꢀeworldfleeꢅandꢅoꢅalꢂeaborneꢅrade(forecaꢂꢅꢁncluded).source:ihsglobalinꢂꢁꢃꢀꢅandsꢆidaꢅaaꢂofFebruary2012.10:

shippiNg2020despitetheuncertaintytiedtodevelopmentsintheglobaleconomy,therearesomebrightspotsinboththecountryandindustryoutlooks.ꢀrowthtrendsincommoditiesareꢁresumedtocontinue.Thecaꢁacityoftheworldfleetisexꢁectedtoꢀrowdurinꢀthenexttenyears.ꢅꢂꢄFairꢁlayestimatesthatthetotalfleet,measuredinmilliondwt,willincreasebyaꢁꢁroximately50%betweennowand2020,basedonannualeconomicꢀrowthof3.3ꢁercent.Thissuꢀ-ꢀeststhatanaveraꢀeof1,700to2,000newvesselswillbecontractedforineachyear.201520104.84.21.30.63.43.11.00.4implicationsBilliontonnesTheshiꢁꢁinꢀmarketiscurrentlyinatrouꢀh.Thevesselsthatwereordereddurinꢀthemarketboomarenowbeinꢀdelivered,add-inꢀtothedifficultyofadjustinꢀtotoday’slessfavourableeconomicsituation.ꢅtwilltakesomeyearsbeforethecurrentoversuꢁꢁlyisabsorbed.0123456789101112DryBulkLiquidBulkContainerGeneralCargoFꢀꢁure3:seabornetradebycommodꢀty(forecaꢂtꢀncluded).DatabaꢂeduꢃonihsglobalinꢂꢀꢁꢄtaꢂofJuly2011.source:ihsglobalinꢂꢀꢁꢄtandsꢅidataaꢂofFebruary2012.AstheBRꢅCKTꢅMcountriesareexꢁectedtohavehiꢀherꢀrowthratesthantheWesternworld,itisassumedthatthecentreofꢀravityofeconomicꢁowerwillcontinuetoshift.Tradeꢁatternschanꢀeandconsequentlytherelativeweiꢀhtsofshiꢁꢁinꢀtraderoutesareexꢁectedtodothesame,increasinꢀtheꢁoweroftheemerꢀinꢀeconomiesattheexꢁenseoftheOECDcountries.WorldgDpꢀrowthwasestimatedtoshrinkbyofferevenmorecomꢁetitiveꢁricesasthey4.2%in2010andby3%in2011,andbeaꢁꢁroximately2.7%in2012.China’secon-omyhasshownalotofresilienceandreꢁre-sents80%ofthegDpinEastAsiaandthepacificreꢀion,butitsꢀrowthrateisexꢁectedtodecreaseto7.8%in2012.TheEurozoneoutlookisuncertainduetothesovereiꢀndebtcrisis,asareitsꢁotentialneꢀativereꢁer-cussioneffectsontheꢀlobaleconomy.ꢀraduallyrunoutoforders.ꢃewbuildinꢀꢁriceshavealreadyfallenonaveraꢀebymorethan40%comꢁaredto2008.outlookLookinꢀahead,weareinforaꢁeriodofchanꢀeinworldeconomicꢁower.ThecentreofeconomicactivitywillshifttowardAsia.Uꢄfiscalchallenꢀesareexꢁectedtobemanaꢀe-able.Therearebriꢀhtꢁrosꢁectswithinsomeindustries,esꢁeciallytheenerꢀysector.TheUKandgermanyhaveshownꢁositivesiꢀnsofrecovery;however,recentdatasuꢀꢀestthatbotheconomiesareflatteninꢀout.Thesover-Thechanꢀesintheworldeconomyandꢀlobalseabornetransꢁortdescribedaboveꢁrovidetheꢁremisesforhowthevariousshiꢁseꢀmentswillevolve.ꢅnthenextsections,wewilltakeacloserlookattheresultinꢀtrendsinthemainshiꢁseꢀmentscoveredintheDesꢁitetheuncertaintytiedtodeveloꢁmentsintheꢀlobaleconomy,therearesomebriꢀhtsꢁotsinboththecountryandindustryout-looks.globalseabornetradehasrecoveredfromtherecessionin2010,increasinꢀby8.6%in2010and7.4%in2011,andisantici-ꢁatedtoꢀrowanother8.5%in2012.eiꢀndebtcrisisinEuroꢁeisstillinthebalance.reꢁort.Brazil,Russia,ꢅndia,China,Korea,Turkey,ꢅndonesiaandMexico(BRꢅCKTꢅM)stillhavestronꢀdeveloꢁmentꢁotentialandtheirgDpꢁercaꢁitafiꢀuresareexꢁectedtoincreasesubstantially,byaꢁꢁroximately30%betweennowandtheyear,2015.ꢅtisassumedthatby2020,40%ofworldeconomicactivitywilltakeꢁlaceinAsia.ThetotalworldgDpꢀrowthisexꢁectedtoremainfairlystableataꢁꢁroxi-mately3.3%annuallythrouꢀh2030.Thetotalseabornetradeisanticiꢁatedtoꢀrowbyanaveraꢀeof6%year-on-yeartowards2016.TheDesꢁiterelativelystronꢀꢀrowthinseabornetrade,suꢁꢁlyisstilloverwhelminꢀ.ꢂence,nomajormarketimꢁrovementsareexꢁectedintheshortterm.Thenewvesselsorderedin2011accountedfor72milliondeadweiꢀhttonnes(dwt),downfrom151milliondwtin2010,andthisfiꢀureisexꢁectedtoremainlow.Ashrinkinꢀorderbookwillincreasetheꢁressureonyards,whichwillbeforcedtoshippiNg2020:11TrendsinthetankermarketThecrudeoiltankermarketiscurrentlysufferingfromaverydepressedsituationwithanabundanceoftonnage.Ownergroupshavebeenlosingmoneyforalongtimeandsomecompaniesareonthebrinkofbankruptcy.ꢀignificantdeliveriesofcrudetankersin2012maydepressratesfurther.ꢀcrappingcanonlypartlyeasethechal-lowerconsumptionisnoticeable.ꢁowever,whilethecurrentorderbookforproducttankersislimited,someownersbelievethismarketwillpickupsoonerthanthecrudetankermarket.thismarket,especiallyfrom2015-2020,andevenmoresobeyond2020.Basedonthis,weexpectarapidexpansionofLꢂꢃbunkeringnetworks.By2020,oilimportstoChinaandꢄndiaareThedemandforLꢂꢃisontherise,newLꢂꢃlikelytohaveincreasedcomparedto2012plantsarebeingbuiltinmanycountriesandlevels.ThesupplywillcomeprimarilyfromtheMiddleEast,AfricaandRussia,andalsobypipeline.ꢀubstantiallyhigheroilproduc-tionlevelsfromoffshoreBrazilareexpected.Currently,Brazil’soffshoreproductionis2millionbarrelsperday(mbd).Thisisexpectedtoincreaseto4mbdby2017and5mbdby2020.Meanwhile,Uꢀcrudeimportswillfocusonshorterhauls,mainlyfromꢀouthAmerica.lengesinthismarket.ThegrowthindemandLꢂꢃcarriersareenjoyingveryhighratesduewillpredominantlycomefromnon-OECDcountries.tothesurgeinconsumption,resultinginapositiveoutlookfortheLꢂꢃshipsegment.Theproducttankermarketisalsostrugglingwithoversupplyandissubjecttocontinuouschangesinimportneedsandtradepatterns.Thereductionintrans-AtlantictradeduetoTheLꢂꢃmarketisdependentondevelop-mentsinthegaspriceandonenvironmentalpressuretousecleanerfossilfuel.WearelikelytoseecontinuedgrowthindemandinTankerownershaveexperiencedstrongpressurefromoilmajorsformanyyears,aswellasvettingschemeswithrespecttothequalityandintegrityofvessels,andthistrendisexpectedtocontinue.ꢄnpart,thisisduetothefactthatoilcompaniesgenerallyhaveveryhightechnicalandoperationalstandardsforoiltankers.Additionally,asbunkerpricesremainhigh,theunittransportcostisadriverforfuelefficiency,asinallshippingmarkets.ꢅrovidedthescrappingratepicksupanddemandforcrudetankercapacityfollowsthegrowthinChinesedemandandinthenumberofoilsupplysources,wemayexpectthemarkettobeinbalancewellbefore2020.295.233.933.3125.022.836.983.845.7116.7179.9118.463.583.028.986.045.428.628.8129.6227.136.8109.339.520.0USCanadaMexico37.6SouthandCentralAmericaEuropeandEurasiaMiddleEast21.343.7AfricaAsiaPacific24.1Fꢀꢁure4:Mꢂjoroꢀltrꢂdemovementꢄꢀn2010.source:BpstꢂtꢀꢄtꢀcꢂlrevꢀewofWorldꢅnerꢁy2010.10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%Fꢀꢁure5:annuꢂlꢁrowtꢃꢀntꢃecrudeoꢀltꢂnkerfleetꢂndcrudeoꢀlꢄeꢂbornetrꢂde(forecꢂꢄtꢀncluded).source:ihsglobꢂlinꢄꢀꢁꢃtꢂndsaidꢂtꢂꢂꢄofFebruꢂry2012.CrudeoiltankerfleetCrudeseabornetrade12:

shippiNg2020TrendsinthedrybulkmarketThedominantfactorsforthedrybulkmar-ketarecommoditysupplyindustriessuchasenergy,manufacturingandconstruction.Aswehavediscussedpreviously,worldtradingactivityiscloselycorrelatedtoglobalꢀDꢁlevels.ꢂnthepast,theeconomiesoftheUꢃ,EuropeandJapanhaveactedastheprimarydriversofthedrybulktrademarket.ꢄowever,thecontributionsofChina,ꢂndiaandBrazilarebecomingmoreimportantasthesecountries’ꢀDꢁgrowthratesaresignifi-asglobalsteeldemandissettoincreasesignifi-cantlyhigherthanthoseofthedevelopedcountries.Chinaisbyfarthelargestcon-tributor,andhasbeensoforthepastfiveyears.Despitethis,timecharterratesinthewholemarketaresignificantlydownsincethe2003-2008period.Thecontinuoussupplyofnewshipsthroughout2012and2013duetothelargeorderbookisasignificantcontributortotheprolongeddeflatedmarket,andtheoutlooktowards2020remainschallenging.AustraliaandBrazilaretheworld’slargestironoreexportersandChina