世界经济论坛-为可持续流动性释放大规模长期资本：引入关键流动性投资原型（英）-2021.9-38正式版

InCollaborationwithMcKinsey&CompanyUnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility:IntroducingKeyMobilityInvestmentArchetypesINSIGHTREPORTSEPTEMBER2

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1每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。。Inside:GettyImages/UnsplashContentsPreface34ExecutivesummaryIntroduction5Mobilitytransitioninvestmentcases1.Whencitybusesgogreen2.Fossil-freeschoolbuses3.Zeroinginonautomotivepassengerfleets4.Greeningthefleet:Bigtruckstakeonzeroemissions5.Greeninglast-miledeliveryfleets6.Exploringfossil-freefuellinginfrastructureConclusion610141723262831323335ListofabbreviationsContributorsEndnotesDisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2021WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.UnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility2September

2021UnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility:IntroducingKeyMobilityInvestmentArchetypesPrefaceUnlockinglarge-scale,long-termcapitalforsustainablemobilityWiththesigningoftheParisClimateAccordsandextremeweathereventsinmanypartsoftheworld,climatechangeanddecarbonizationareattheforefrontofmanymindsingovernmentandindustry.Solutionsarebeingwidelydiscussed,butresearchsuggeststhatnetgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsneedtobereducedmuchfasterthananticipatedtomeetthetargetssetOneofthekeybarriersfacingthistransitionisthelackofcoordinatedinvestmentintheshiftfrominternalcombustionengine(ICE)tozero-emissionvehicles.Inparticular,fleets–meaninga(larger)numberofvehiclesmanagedbyasingleentity–representanopportunitytoacceleratethezero-emissiontransitionfortworeasons.Bytargetingfleets,particularlyoflargeroperators,multiplevehiclescanbetransitionedtozeroemissionsatonce.Furthermore,themajorityoffleetsconsistforthbytheParisAgreementinDecember2015.Transportcontributesroughly10%ofglobalGHGemissions,andreducingemissionsfromthis123ofcommercialvehicles,whichtypicallyhavea4sectorisvitaltomeetingtheseclimatetargets.Whilecurrenteffortsareongoing,thepaceoftransformationisunlikelytobesufficient,andbarrierstoaquickertransition(atscale)tozero-emissionroadtransportmustbeaddressed.higheruserate,henceCO2emissions,thantheirnon-commercialcounterparts.ConcentratingeffortsonelectrifyingfleetsratherthanprivatelyownedvehiclescouldacceleratereductionsinCO2emissionsbyuptofourtimesinthenext10years,accordingtoseveralstudies.5UnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility3ExecutivesummaryAcceleratingthezero-emissionmobilitytransitiongloballythroughalarge-scalecollaborativeeffortTheneedforinvestmentintozero-emissionaggregatingandmatchingdemandandsupply.greenhousegas(GHG)technologiesisapparent.McKinseyestimatesthat€28trillionofinvestmentswillberequiredtoreachnet-zeroby2050inthe27EuropeanUnionmembersalone,comparedwithnoclimateaction.ThedomestictransportationTheyalsoproposeaprivate-publicpartnershipapproachtounleashinvestmentfromtheprivatesector.Theproposedsolutionsmitigatethechicken-and-eggproblem,thusallowingascaledsolutionthatmovesbeyondone-offprojectsandisquicklyscalablebeyondpilotlocations.sectoremissions(10%fortransportgloballyup40%ofthetotalinvestmentneed(€12trillion),soitisacriticalsectorforabatement.Current6accountsfor21%ofEuropeanGHG7)andmakesThisjointwhitepaperintroducessixproposedsustainablemobilityinvestmentcases:8momentum–whichisfarbelowwhatisneededtolimitglobalwarmingwithin1.5degreesCelsius1.Citybuses–Zero-emissionbusesinmajorcitiesviatheshiftfromcapitaltooperatingexpenditures(capextoopex)ofpre-industriallevels–doesnotsuffice,and9barrierstoafastertransitiontozero-emissiontransportationmustbeovercomequickly.Thebarriersincludelonginvestmenthorizonstoachievepositivebusinesscases,thechicken-and-eggproblemoflimitedchargingandrefuellinginfrastructureinadvancedemandtake-up(atscale)ofalternativepowertrainvehicles,theneedforsignificantlarge-scaleinvestment,andnon-negligiblerisk–atleastforasingleindustryplayerorprivateinvestor.2.Schoolbuses–Zero-emissionschoolbusesviathechangefromcapextoopexinaspecificregion3.Passengercars–Shared-ridevehiclefleetsreplacedbyelectricvehicles(EVs)inamajorcity4.Heavy-dutytrucks–Jointventuresetuptocreateazero-emissiontruckleasingmodelThesebarrierscouldpotentiallybemitigatedviaastructured,collaborativeeffort–includingrelevantindustryleaders,federalandlocalgovernments,andglobalinvestors–thatisdesignedtocreatelarge-scaleinvestmentopportunitiesintheglobaldomesticsustainablemobilitysector.5.Last-miledelivery–Jointventuresetuptoleaseshort-haullightcommercialvehiclestoretailersandlogisticsplayersinamajorurbanarea6.Charginginfrastructure–Hydrogenrefuellingstationbuild-uponhighwaysandcitymobilityhubsforpublicuse.TheWorldEconomicForum,incollaborationwithMcKinsey&Companyasaknowledgepartner,hasdevelopedaprocessthatallowsforstructuredandcontinuousconsultation,withdialoguebetweenallthreestakeholdergroups.Thisprocesshasidentifiedsustainablemobilityinvestmentcasesandrelevantstakeholdersforeachcase.Thesesixcasesaremeanttoprovideanintroductiontotheprogramme;theyare,however,notexhaustive.Whiletheinvestmentopportunitiespresentedherelargelyfocusonearly-adopterregionsinOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)nations,theintentistoalsodeploythemindevelopingeconomiesasrapidlyaspossible.Sustainablemobilityinvestmentcasesproposecollaborativesolutionstocollectivetransitionbarriersalongthedomestictransportsub-assetclassesthatmakeup95%ofemissionsinthesector–buses,passengercars,trucksandlast-miledeliveryvehicles–pluscharginginfrastructure,whichisakeyenablerforallsub-assetclasses.Investmentcasesaredesignedtounlocklarge-scalecapitalflowstosustainablemobilitybyTheWorldEconomicForumanditspartnersarecommittedtofacilitatingthemultistakeholderapproachalongeachoftheseinvestmentcasestoaidthetransitiontozero-emissionandsustainablemobility.Theyintendtocontinueitspartnershipandincubationroleinthisprocess.UnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility4IntroductionTheneedforastructuredcollaborativeefforttoacceleratethezero-emissionmobilitytransitiongloballyThetransportsectorisresponsibleforasignificantamountofGHGemissions.Forexample,inthe27membersoftheEuropeanUnion(EU27),domestictransportemits820milliontonnes10ofcarbondioxideequivalent(CO2e)peryear,accountingfor21%oftotalEUemissions.11Globally,thetransportsectoremits8metricgigatonsofGHG,accountingfor10%oftotalGHGemissions;roadtransportaccountsfor15%ofglobalcarbondioxideWhiletechnologiesarereadyfortakeoffandmany21%ofEU27CO2emissionscansmall-scaleinitiativesarealreadyinplacearoundtheworld,thescale-up,movingbeyondindividualprojectstoalarge-scaleroll-out,posesamajorchallenge.Inordertoachievescaledsolutions,themobilitysectorasawholerequiresalarge-scaleinvestment,whichcarriessignificantnon-negligiblerisksthatareprohibitiveforasingleindustryplayerorprivateinvestor.beattributedtodomestictransportemissions.Consequently,theglobaltransitiontozero-emissionmobilityplaysacrucialroleinachievingthereductioninCO2emissionsrequiredtolimitglobalwarmingtowithin1.5degreesCelsiusofpre-industriallevels,astargetedattheDecember2015ParisClimateConference.Althoughmanyinitiativesarealreadyinplace,thecurrentmomentumintransportationismovingtowarda2-to3-degreepathway.Thus,reachingthe1.5-degreetargetwillrequiretheacceleratedadoptionofzero-emissionvehicles(ZEVs).Individualindustryplayersalonecanlikelynotovercomethechallengealone.Itrequiresastructuredcollaborativeeffortbyanewlarge-scalecoalitionconsistingofrelevantincumbentandemergingindustryleaders,federalandlocalgovernments,andglobalinvestors,andthatisdesignedtounlocklong-term,large-scalecapitalforsustainablemobilityandthusanacceleratedzero-emissionmobilitytransitionglobally.Thiscollaborationalsoneedstoengagelocalcommunities,particularlydisadvantagedones,thataredirectlyaffectedbytheimplicationsofclimatechangeandshouldbenefitfromopportunitiescreatedbytheglobalzero-emissiontransition.Itisapparentthatafastertrajectoryisneeded,yetkeychallengesfacedbyindustrystakeholdersareblockinganacceleratedtransition.WhileinsomecasesZEVscanalreadyachieveoperationalcostbenefitstoday,theupfrontcapitalexpenditure(capex)isasignificantimpedimenttothetransition,particularlyforindividualvehicleownersandthoseofsmallerfleets,andrequiresaparadigmshiftinthetraditionalincrementalreplacementapproachtakenbymanyfleetowners.Furthermore,achicken-and-eggproblemexists:anaccelerationinchargingandrefuellinginfrastructureisrequiredtoadvanceZEVadoption,yeteconomicallyviableinvestmentsinelectricvehicleinfrastructure(EVI)areinturndependentonademand-sideacceleration–thatis,ZEVadoption.Thispaperprovidesanoverviewofzero-emissiontransitionchallengesfacedbythesustainablemobilitysectoralongkeysustainablemobilityareasandintroducesthestructuredcollaborativeapproachcurrentlypursuedbytheWorldEconomicForumandMcKinsey&Companyasaknowledgepartner.Itfurtherintroducessixconcreteinvestmentcasesthatcouldserveasblueprintsforaglobalroll-outatscale.UnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility5MobilitytransitioninvestmentopportunitiesAjointapproachtounlocklarge-scale,long-termcapitalinsustainablemobilityUnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility6ContextThemagnitude,complexityandlongevityoftherequiredinvestmentruleoutmostofthemoreshort-term-orientedinvestors.Long-term-orientedinstitutionalinvestorsseemtobebettersuitedbutareoftenputoffbyadoptionandtechnologyriskiftheyarenotproperlymitigated.Reachingtheclimatetargetssetbygovernmentsaroundtheworldrepresentsanunprecededscale-upchallenge.Forinstance,McKinsey&Companyestimatesthatreachingnet-zeroemissionsinEuropeby2050willrequireaninvestmentofupto€28trillionincleantechnologiesandtechniques,withthetransportationsectorrequiringnearlyhalfofthecapital.ComparingthiswiththetotalannualEU27investments,decarbonizationwouldrequiretheredirectionofroughlyaquarterofallannualinvestmentsinadditiontoincreasingtheinvestmentpoolby7%,amajorchallengeforgovernmentandfinancialinstitutions.12Reachingnet-zerofortheEUdomestictransportsectoralonewillrequire€180billioninincrementalGovernmentsdonotsufficientlyclosethefundinggap,despitehavingthelowestcostofcapital.Thereasonsbehindthiscanrangefromorganizationalcapacityissuestorestrictionsfrompublicdebtlimits.capexuntil2030.ApproachThetransportationsectorplaysacriticalroleinreachingthenet-zerotarget,asapproximately21%ofoverallCO2emissionsinEuropeareproducedasaresultofdomestictransportation.Whileazero-emissiontransitionofthesectorwouldrequireamassiveincrementalcapexofapproximately€180billionby2030,13itcangeneratenetcapexsavingsfrom2040onwardandalmostcompletelybreakevenby2050.Consequently,acceleratingthezero-emissionmobilitytransitiongloballyseemslikeagoodplacetostart.Yet,whilemanyinitiativesarealreadyinplace,thecurrentmomentumintransportationisonthepathtoward2to3degreesCelsius,insteadofthetarget:within1.5degreesCelsiusofpre-industriallevels.ItisapparentOvercomingthechallengeswillbefarfromeasyandwillrequirealarge-scalecollaborativeeffortbystakeholderstostructurescalablemobilityinvestmentcases.Thesecasesshouldbedesignedtoovercomechallengesfacedbyindustryplayersandatthesametimesuittheinvestmentcharacteristicsofglobalinvestors,representinglarge-scaleinvestmentswithsufficientlong-termstablereturns.Thecreationofsuchinvestableopportunitieswillrequireclosecollaborationbetweenindustryleaders,governmentandregulators,andglobalinvestors.Thiscollaborationmighttaketheformofasustainablemobilityinvestmentnetwork,inwhicheachplayercontributestheiruniqueskills.thatafastertrajectoryisneeded,particularlybydevelopedeconomiestoallowforsloweradoptionbydevelopingcountries.Thetransition,however,hasbeensloweddownbythreekeychallenges.Industryleaderscompriseincumbentandemergingindustryplayersthatarerelevanttoeachmobilityinvestmentcaseandthatwanttodrivechangeintherespectivemobilityspace.Theseindustryleaderscontributethecapabilitiestoprovideandscaleupinfrastructureandvehiclesupplyandtoimplementandoperatelarge-scalezero-emissionprojects.Whileglobalindustrycouldenablefastscalingtofurtherlocations(includingemergingeconomies),theapproachshouldincludelocalindustryplayerssolocalcommunitiescanbenefitfromtheopportunities.Mobilityplayers14facea“chicken-and-egg”problemofwhethertofirstaddressthelimitedavailabilityofcharginginfrastructureortheZEVadoptionrequiredforasolutionatscale.WhileZEVuptakerequiressufficientchargingstationstomitigateoperationalriskandjustifyhighcapex,thereversealsoistrue.Mobilityplayersthereforefacedifficultiesexplainingdistinctinvestmentobjectivestoprivateinvestorsandtheylackthescaletosingle-handedlystructureandfinancelarge,high-impactprojects.Long-terminvestorscouldcontributeintwoways.First,acollaborationbetweenlong-terminvestorswouldprovidetherequiredfundingpower(€180billionincrementalcapexneeduntil2030),whichcurrentlyexceedsthecapabilitiesofindividualinvestors,companiesorindustrycoalitions.Second,thelong-termreturnexpectationsenablethepursuitofopportunitiesthatwouldnotbeattractiveforinvestorgroupswithshorterterminterests.Significantlarge-scaleprojectsoftenlackfundingbecausefinancialplayersfaceeconomicbarrierstoinvestinginzero-emissionmobility.Thesebarriersincludeuncertainmarketoutcomesand(thus)returns,operationalriskbasedontheneedtomanageprojectsofunprecedentedscale,andapotentialadoptionriskduetotheindustry’sratheryoungage.Furthermore,manybusinesscasesrequirelonginvestmenthorizonstobecomepositive;andaboutone-thirdoftherequiredcapitaloutlaysintransportationaremissingapositivebusinesscasealtogether.UnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility7Governmentsandregulatorscouldde-risktheinvestmentbyprovidingregulatoryclarityandlong-termgovernmentalmasterindividualorsmall-scalefleetoperators,particularlysubcontractors,whichoftenfacehigherswitchingbarriersduetolimitedavailabilityoffinancingoptions,aswellaslowerrisk-takingabilities.planstoreduceuncertaintyandhenceriskofcommercialinitiatives.Thismayattractlong-terminvestors,whointurncanmobilizemorecapital.Governmentsandregulatorsalsohavetheopportunitytofacilitateanacceleratedtransitionbyintroducingregulations,suchasinternalcombustionengine(ICE)bansorzero-emissionzones.Thesemeasurescouldgohandinhandwithgovernment-supportedenablersforaffectedindustryplayers,includingsmallerplayersthatmaystruggletoconformwithgovernment-inducedtargetswithoutsupport.Further,governmentsmayincreasetheattractivenessofinvestmentsbysupportingthetransitionviapublicfinancing,e.g.carbongapstopositiveinvestmentcasesforinvestors.Investmentcasesarestructuredtobecome“investable”forlong-term-orientedinvestorsviasecuritizationorstructuringthatsatisfiesgloballong-terminvestorneeds,i.e.long-termstablereturnswithadequaterisk-returnprofiles.Governmentscouldfurtherhelpbyprovidingmechanismstoreduceriskbyoffering,forexample,guaranteestoreducefinancialrisks,suchascreditandcounterpartyriskorfinancialsupportintheformofsubsidiestoensurethattheofferingiseconomicallyattractiveonthedemandside.Thebundlingofthecapabilitiesofallthreestakeholdersholdsthepotentialtouniquelyboostthetransitionandthusenableafastertrajectorytozero-emissionmobility.Investmentcasesareblueprints,scalabletootherlocations.Investmentcasesaredesignedtoovercomechallengesfacedbythesustainablemobilitysectorglobally.TheyareMobilitytransitioninvestmentcasesalsobeingdevelopedinclosecollaborationwithglobalindustryplayers.Thus,whiletheproposedsolutionsshouldbepilotedinaspecificregioninitially,theyareblueprintsdesignedforfastroll-outtofurtherlocations,includingemergingeconomies.Hence,asimilarstructuremaybeapplicabletomultipletransitioncasesand,importantly,thecasesarenotincompetition.Eachinvestmentcase,ofcourse,needstobetailoredtolocalspecificsthroughclosecollaborationwithlocalstakeholders.TheWorldEconomicForum,jointlywithMcKinsey&Companyasaknowledgepartner,hasinitiatedastructuredapproachtoconceptualizeinvestmentcasesinclosecollaborationwiththethreestakeholdergroups.Theprioritizedinvestmentcasesareintroducedinthiswhitepaper.Whileeachcasefocusesonauniquesustainablemobilityareafacingdistinctchallenges,theyallshareacommonfoundation.Table1providesanoverviewofthesixinvestmentcasesintroducedinthiswhitepaper.Asallinvestmentcasessharecommondesignfoundations,thepaperfocusesontheuniquecharacteristicsofeachsustainablemobilityareaandinvestmentcaseineachsection.Importantly,theseinvestmentcasesrepresentinitialopportunitiesthathavebeenshapedwithstakeholdergroups(locatedmainlyinOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)countries)duringinitialconsultations.Hence,theinvestmentopportunitiespresentedherearenotexhaustive.Inparticular,anacceleratedzero-emissionmobilitytransitionwillrequireamorenuancedgeographicapproachthatincludesopportunitiesinemergingeconomiesandthatareperceivedashighlyimpactfulandcallforfurtheranalysis.Similarly,investigationsshouldaddressfurtherareasofpotentialhighimpactInvestmentcasesconsolidatethedemandsideandsupplysidethroughtheaggregationofdemandforindividualvehiclesbytargetingmobilityfleets(includingsubcontractors)andaligningsupply(vehicleandcharginginfrastructure)withdemand.Investmentcasesarethusdesignedtoovercomethechicken-and-eggproblem,significantlyreducingoperatingrisksforindustryplayersandrisktoinvestors.Investmentcasesaredesignedtoliftthecapexburdenoffindividualplayers’balancesheetsbyfoundinganewlegalentitybackedbylong-terminvestorsthattakesownershipofassets(includingvehiclesandinfrastructure)andbundlesthemintoanall-in-oneleasingsolutionforthedemandside.Thus,capexistransformedtooperatingexpenditure(opex)fordemand-sideplayers.Demand-sideplayerswilldifferamonginvestmentcases,yetthestructuresaredesignedtoaidonmobility,suchastwo-andthree-wheelers.Furthermore,thecasespresentedarestillinadevelopmentalstageandrequirematuringbeforetheybecomeinvestableopportunities.UnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility8TABLE1PossibleinvestmentopportunitiesPotentialinvestmentopportunitiesDescriptionSPVtakesonzero-emissionbusassetownershipaswellascharginginfrastructureownership.Leasestobusfleetoperator.Minimalupfrontexpensetooperator1.Zero-emissionbusfleetsinacitySPVtakesonzero-emissionschoolbusorcorporateshuttleassetownership,aswellascharginginfrastructureownership.Leasestoschoolbusorcorporateshuttleoperator.Minimalupfrontexpensetooperator.Possibleincomestreamtoschoolbusoperatorwhilebusesareidlethroughvehicle-to-gridarrangementwithelectricitydistributor2.Zero-emissionbusfleets–schoolbusesandcorporateshuttlebusesSPVtakesonzero-emissionpassengervehicleownershipaswellashomechargersandleasestomobilityserviceprovider-contracteddrivers.PossiblesecondSPVtotakeonchargerassetownershipand,throughpartnershiporarrangementswithpropertyowners(separatefromgovernment),mandateinstallationatstrategiclocationsacrosscity3.Zero-emissionpassengercars–sharedridevehicles(taxifleets,platformoperators)4.JointventuretocreateZero-emissiontruck-leasingmodelJointventurebetweentruckmanufacturer,charginginfrastructureproviderandassetownerstoestablishoperatingcompanytoleasezero-emissiontruckstotruckfleetoperators5.Jointventuretoleaseshort-haulZero-emissionLCVs–retailersandlogisticplayersSPVtakesownershipofzero-emissionLCVsaswellaschargersandleasestosmallerretailandlogistictruckfleetoperatorsinatrucking-as-a-servicearrangement6.Charginginfrastructure–hydrogenrefuellingstations(HRS)SPVtakesownershipofHRS,partneringwithgovernmentsandhighwayauthoritiestosecurelocationstoestablishHRS.SPVisboththeassetownerandoperatingcompanyUnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility9Whencitybusesgogreen1Unlockingalarge-scaletransitiontozero-emissionbusesinmajorcitiesUnlockingLarge-Scale,Long-TermCapitalforSustainableMobility10ContextCO2ein2019,or2.5%ofdomestictransport-relatedemissions.21Londonhashadcleanbusesinoperationsince2004,whenthefirstfuelcellbuswaslaunchedintoservice.22By2019,twocitybusrouteshadbeendesignatedaselectriconly.Atthattime,200electricbuseswerealreadyinLondon’sbusfleet,makingitthelargestelectricbusfleetinEurope,resultingina90%dropinnitrogenoxide(NOx)emissions.23AsofMarch2021,London’sbusfleetconsistedof4,697ICEbuses(diesel),3,884hybrid,485electric,andtwofuelcellbuses–atotalof9,068buses.24In2021,London’sbusfleetalreadyincluded200electricbuses,makingittheWithcitybusesonfixedroutesinaconfinedgeographicalarea,rangeanxiety15isseldomanimpedingfactortotheadoptionofzero-emissionvehiclesforcitybusfleets.16Centralizedcharginginfrastructureinbusdepotscanallowforvehiclestobechargedatthebeginningorendoftheirroute,likelynotrequiringextensiveadditionalcharginginfrastructurebuild-upoutsideofbusdepots.17Furthermore,Batteryelectricbusesofferalowertotalcostofownershipthancomparabledieselorcompressednaturalgasbuses,thankstolowermaintenanceneedsamongotherfactors(seeBox3Totalcostofownership(TCO)foranexampleusingpassengercars).Therefore,theirusecanunlocklong-termsavingsforfleetopera-tors.18Inaddition,electricbusesrunmorequietlythanregularICEbuses,reducingnoisepollutionwithincities.largestelectricbusfleetinEurope.AcitysimilartoLondoncouldbeusedtopilotalarge-scalezero-emissioncitybustransitionoftheremainingICEandhybridfleet.Aspecial-purposevehicle(SPV),fundedbyanequityordebtinvestmentfromoneormorelong-terminvestors,couldbeformed.Theinvestmentvehiclewouldacquireassets,busesandpossiblybusdepotcharginginfrastructureonitsbalancesheetandleasethemtopublicandprivatebusfleetoperatorsasanall-in-onezero-emissionsolution.ThefleetoperatorwouldpayamonthlyleasingfeetotheSPV,thusshiftingcapextoopexfromthebusfleetoperators’perspective.Thisset-upwouldalsomitigateoperatingrisksforfleetoperatorsbyprovidingasolutionthatincludescharginginfrastructure.Thetotalcostofownership(TCO)positivityofBEVsversusICEbuseswouldfurtherunlocklong-termsavingsforfleetoperatorsandgovernments.Insomelocations,existingtrolleybusinfrastruc-turemaybeleveragedtoelectrifybusfleets,thuscircumventinggridupgradesandchargingrequirementsaltogether.Trolleybusesdrawpowerfromoverheadwires,atechnologythathadalreadybeenindecline.Theyare,however,ontheriseagain,leveragingin-motionchargingtechnology19onelectricvehicles.SeveralEuropeancitiesandregions,including,amongothers,SwitzerlandandGermany,haveannouncedplanstoleveragetrol-leybusesintheirzero-emissiontransition.20Governmentsupportintheformofguarantees,forexample,couldreducethecreditrisktoinvestors.Furthermore,subsidies–forexample,vehiclepurchasingsubsidies–mayfurtherincreaseeconomicincentivesforfleetoperatorstoswitchtoZEVsbyreducingTCOandthusmonthlyleasingcoststooperators.GovernmentsmayalsoconsiderintroducingregulationsthatincreasethecostofoperatingICEbuses–forexample,byintroducingorincreasingCO2emissionscharges,thusfurtherfacilitatingtheTCOpositivityofBEVs.Governmentscouldalsosolidifythemagnitudeandpaceofthismobilitytransitionthroughenablingenvironmentssuchaszero-emission-onlybuszones.IntheUnitedKingdom,forexample,thegovernmenthasannoun