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LearningobjectivesThischapterintroducesyoutotheissuesmacroeconomistsstudythetoolsmacroeconomistsusesomeimportantconceptsinmacroeconomicanalysisImportantissuesinmacroeconomicsWhydoesthecostoflivingkeeprising?Whyaremillionsofpeopleunemployed,evenwhentheeconomyisbooming?Whyarethererecessions?
Canthegovernmentdoanythingtocombatrecessions?Shouldit??ImportantissuesinmacroeconomicsWhatisthegovernmentbudgetdeficit?Howdoesitaffecttheeconomy?WhydoestheU.S.havesuchahugetradedeficit?Whyaresomanycountriespoor?
Whatpoliciesmighthelpthemgrowoutofpoverty?U.S.GrossDomesticProduct
inbillionsofchained1996dollarslong-runupwardtrend…U.S.GrossDomesticProduct
inbillionsofchained1996dollarsRecessionslongesteconomicexpansiononrecordWhylearnmacroeconomics?Themacroeconomyaffectssociety’swell-being.example:
UnemploymentandsocialproblemsUnemploymentandsocialproblemsEachone-pointincreaseinthe
unemploymentrateisassociatedwith:920moresuicides(自杀)650morehomicides(杀人)4000morepeopleadmittedtostatementalinstitutions(精神病院)3300morepeoplesenttostateprisons37,000moredeathsincreasesindomesticviolenceandhomelessnessWhylearnmacroeconomics?Themacroeconomyaffectssociety’swell-being.example:
UnemploymentandsocialproblemsThemacroeconomyaffectsyourwell-being.example1:
Unemploymentandearningsgrowthexample2:
InterestratesandmortgagepaymentsUnemploymentandearningsgrowthInterestratesandmortgagepaymentsFora$150,00030-yearmortgage:$11,782$9816.84%Dec2001$12,771$10647.65%Dec2000annualpaymentmonthlypaymentactualrateon30-yearmortgagedateWhylearnmacroeconomics?Themacroeconomyaffectssociety’swell-being.example:
UnemploymentandsocialproblemsThemacroeconomyaffectsyourwell-being.example1:
Unemploymentandearningsgrowthexample2:
InterestratesandmortgagepaymentsThemacroeconomyaffectspolitics¤tevents.example:
InflationandunemploymentinelectionyearsInflationandUnemploymentinElectionYearsyear Urate inflationrate elec.outcome1976 7.7% 5.8% Carter(D)1980 7.1% 13.5% Reagan(R)1984 7.5% 4.3% Reagan(R)1988 5.5% 4.1% BushI(R)1992 7.5% 3.0% Clinton(D)1996 5.4% 3.3% Clinton(D)2000 4.0% 3.4% BushII(R)Economicmodels…aresimpliedversionsofamorecomplexrealityirrelevantdetailsarestrippedawayUsedtoshowtherelationshipsbetweeneconomicvariablesexplaintheeconomy’sbehaviordevisepoliciestoimproveeconomicperformanceExampleofamodel:
Thesupply&demandfornewcarsexplainsthefactorsthatdeterminethepriceofcarsandthequantitysold.assumesthemarketiscompetitive:eachbuyerandselleristoosmalltoaffectthemarketpriceVariables:Q
d=quantityofcarsthatbuyersdemandQ
s=quantitythatproducerssupplyP=priceofnewcarsY=aggregateincomePs=priceofsteel(aninput)Thedemandforcarsshowsthatthequantity
ofcarsconsumersdemand
isrelatedtothepriceofcars
andaggregateincome.Digression:FunctionalnotationGeneralfunctionalnotationshowsonlythatthevariablesarerelated:Alistofthevariables
thataffectQ
dDigression(枝节话):FunctionalnotationGeneralfunctionalnotationshowsonlythatthevariablesarerelated:Aspecificfunctionalformshowstheprecise(准确地)quantitativerelationship:Themarketforcars:demandQQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsDThedemandcurveshowstherelationshipbetweenquantitydemandedandprice,otherthingsequal.Themarketforcars:supplyQQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsDSThesupplycurveshowstherelationshipbetweenquantitysuppliedandprice,otherthingsequal.Themarketforcars:equilibriumQQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsSDequilibriumpriceequilibrium
quantityTheeffectsofanincreaseinincome:D2QQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsSD1Q1P1Anincreaseinincomeincreasesthequantity
ofcarsconsumersdemandateachprice……whichincreasestheequilibriumpriceandquantity.P2Q2Theeffectsofasteelpriceincrease:QQuantityofcarsP
Price
ofcarsS1DQ1P1AnincreaseinPsreducesthequantityofcarsproducerssupplyateachprice……whichincreasesthemarketpriceandreducesthequantity.P2Q2S2Endogenousvs.exogenous
variables:Thevaluesofendogenousvariables(内生变量)
aredeterminedinthemodel.Thevaluesofexogenousvariables(外生变量)
aredeterminedoutsidethemodel:
themodeltakestheirvalues&behavior
asgiven.Inthemodelofsupply&demandforcars,Nowyoutry:Writedowndemandandsupply
equationsforwirelessphones;
includetwoexogenousvariables
ineachequation.Drawasupply-demandgraph
forwirelessphones.Useyourgraphtoshowhowachangeinoneofyourexogenousvariablesaffectsthemodel’sendogenousvariables.AMultitude(大量)ofModelsNoonemodelcanaddressalltheissueswecareabout.Forexample,Ifwewanttoknowhowafallinaggregateincomeaffectsnewcarprices,wecanusetheS/Dmodelfornewcars.Butifwewanttoknowwhyaggregateincomefalls,weneedadifferentmodel.AMultitudeofModelsSowewilllearndifferentmodelsforstudyingdifferentissues(e.g.unemployment,inflation,long-rungrowth).Foreachnewmodel,youshouldkeeptrackofitsassumptions,whichofitsvariablesareendogenousandwhichareexogenous,thequestionsitcanhelpusunderstand,andthoseitcannot.Prices:Flexible(灵活的)VersusSticky(粘性的)Marketclearing:anassumptionthatpricesareflexibleandadjusttoequatesupplyanddemand.Intheshortrun,manypricesaresticky---theyadjustonlysluggishly(缓慢地)inresponsetosupply/demandimbalances.
Forexample,laborcontractsthatfixthenominalwageforayearorlongermagazinepricesthatpublisherschangeonlyonceevery3-4yearsPrices:FlexibleVersusStickyTheeconomy’sbehaviordependspartlyonwhetherpricesarestickyorflexible:Ifpricesaresticky,thendemandwon’talwaysequalsupply.Thishelpsexplainunemployment(excesssupplyoflabor)theoccasionalinabilityoffirmstosellwhattheyproduceLongrun:pricesflexible,marketsclear,economybehavesverydifferently.Outlineofthisbook:Introductorymaterial(chaps.1&2)ClassicalTheory
(chaps.3-6)
Howtheeconomyworksinthelongrun,whenpricesareflexibleGrowthTheory
(chaps.7-8)
ThestandardoflivinganditsgrowthrateovertheverylongrunBusinessCycleTheory
(chaps9-13)
Howtheeconomyworksintheshortrun,whenpricesaresticky.Outlineofthisbook:Policydebates
(Chaps.14-15)
Shouldthegovernmenttrytosmoothbusinesscyclefluctuations?Isthegovernment’s
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