骏马短线快参

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明部分请务必阅读正文后的免责声明部分骏马短线快参中国银河证券投资顾问部研究所2010年4月关注基本面，结合技术面，把握中短线，切记控风险投资思路：中国物流与采购联合会公布3月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为55．1％，较上月上升3．1个百分点，显示中国经济稳中有升，强劲的经济数据提振了投资者信心。银行股再融资方案基本确定，对A股市场的资金需求小于预期，有利于银行股的估值修复。随着上市公司2009年年报披露进入高潮，业绩具有说服力的大盘蓝筹股对市场资金吸引力增强。栖霞建设（600533）：可售资源丰富业绩将有高增长公司09年合同销售金额达到了创纪录的44亿元，其中有20亿元将在今年结转收入，为收入的增长打下了基础。2010年公司计划除保障房项目外全年施工面积137.16万平方米，新开工面积83.54万平方米，竣工面积32.07万平方米，新开工规模的增长将带来可售资源增加。公司在2008年参股的广东棕榈园林股份有限公司将在近期上市，我们认为这将对公司股价有正面作用。参照可比公司东方园林目前的估值水平，广东棕榈园林上市后可为公司带来约3亿元的投资收益。由于公司拥有可观的可售资源以及开发项目的销售均价较09年已经出现了较大上涨，我们预计公司今明两年业绩将有大幅增长，10、11年每股收益分别为0.34和0.52元，建议投资者关注。（银河骏马工作组）所属行业房地产开发与经营业煤炭采选业目前可流通市值(亿元)67.727.49总市值(亿元)67.727.50每股收益(元)（3Q09）0.210.29每股净资产(元)2.584.09每股公积金(元)0.970.26每股未分配利润(元)0.472.25净利润同比增长(%)18.8-68.62净资产收益率(%)8.237.02市盈率（TTM）30.3519.84市净率2.56.08最新收盘价6.4524平煤股份（601666）：关注高业绩弹性和河南省的资源整合10年公司煤矿产量增长主要来自既有煤矿的技改增产以及首山矿投产新增100万吨产量，我们预计10-11年公司煤炭产量分别为4013万吨和4073万吨，同比增长8%和1%。公司的母公司中平能化集团（或者上市公司）作为兼并主体可以兼并平顶山矿区、韩梁矿区、临汝矿区、禹州矿区、郏县矿区的小煤矿。作为三个5000万吨级的煤炭企业之一的中平能化应该能够兼并大约2000万吨的产能，考虑到兼并权益（可能51%），也即是说权益产量增加大约1000万吨。考虑到公司可能进行的盈余管理，我们谨慎的预计10-11年每股收益分别为1.46元和1.54元，同比增长46%和5%，建议投资者关注。（银河骏马工作组）所属行业煤炭采选业煤炭采选业目前可流通市值(亿元)375.417.49总市值(亿元)375.417.50每股收益(元)（3Q09）10.29每股净资产(元)5.484.09每股公积金(元)1.80.26每股未分配利润(元)1.52.25净利润同比增长(%)-51.25-68.62净资产收益率(%)18.427.02市盈率（TTM）19.4819.84市净率4.836.08最新收盘价26.8724【近期跟踪】推荐日期股票代码股票名称推荐价格（元）累计涨幅（%）累计最高涨幅（%）沪深300同期累计最高涨幅（%）超越沪深300比例（%）2010-4-1600649城投控股12.206.159.021.407.622010-3-31600325华发股份16.405.796.710.775.942010-3-31002024苏宁电器18.900.580.950.770.182010-3-30600036招商银行16.300.491.351.010.342010-3-30600028中国石化12.00-1.250.331.01-0.682010-3-29600016民生银行7.483.614.683.591.092010-3-23002078太阳纸业19.733.854.412.721.692010-3-22600058五矿发展17.842.695.832.992.842010-3-22600966博汇纸业9.694.755.062.992.05 注：骏马推荐股票超过10个交易日不再跟踪，推荐价格为推荐日前一天收盘价。【重点回顾】推荐日期股票代码股票名称推荐价格（元）累计最高涨幅（%）超越沪深300比例（%）2010-4-1600649城投控股12.209.027.622010-3-31600325华发股份16.406.715.942010-3-19600067冠城大通13.4714.1810.362010-3-17600376首开股份18.5020.5414.662010-3-10000983西山煤电33.628.125.502010-2-26600017日照港7.4115.6512.612010-2-12000983西山煤电33.089.894.542010-2-11600037歌华有线15.1510.174.622010-2-11600271航天信息21.7910.144.592010-2-10600066宇通客车17.1715.788.742010-2-10600426华鲁恒升19.1811.994.952010-1-19600377宁沪高速7.4112.0111.222010-1-18000680山推股份13.357.496.182010-1-15000488晨鸣纸业8.796.374.662010-1-13600806昆明机床15.495.876.062010-1-12601872招商轮船5.7411.8510.312010-1-11600718东软集团23.5022.5519.272010-1-11600030中信证券32.2610.016.732010-1-6000022深赤湾15.2913.0212.162010-1-5600271航天信息20.5419.8118.142010-1-5002152广电运通33.0015.0013.322010-1-4600616金枫酒业17.9224.7824.162010-1-4600897厦门空港18.2516.1115.492009-12-31601898中煤能源13.546.575.482009-12-30600806昆明机床14.2914.7711.992009-12-29002018华星化工12.4419.7716.342009-12-25600037歌华有线13.8938.1633.542009-12-25000039中集集团12.2525.6321.012009-12-24600271航天信息18.2634.7826.942009-12-14600835上海机电13.806.525.172009-12-11600271航天信息18.4033.7532.462009-12-10600616金枫酒业17.3428.9527.0220000726鲁泰A11.6617.1515.222009-12-8600037歌华有线14.0536.5836.522009-12-8000729燕京啤酒17.5226.1426.082009-12-7002202金风科技29.7720.9320.122009-12-7600143金发科技11.194.924.112009-12-4600598北大荒15.296.614.322009-12-3000887中鼎股份13.6122.8520.752009-12-2000690宝新能源9.8621.4018.262009-12-1000659珠海中富7.3017.8113.222009-12-1000816江淮动力7.3710.856.272009-11-30600327大厦股份12.7821.7513.172009-11-25600795国电电力7.2316.8713.362009-11-24000823超声电子8.8659.5958.702009-11-24600426华鲁恒升21.8215.7214.832009-11-23600268国电南自17.8465.9864.132009-11-23002097山河智能18.8719.6117.762009-11-20601899紫金矿业10.0214.7713.242009-11-19600019宝钢股份7.9023.0421.172009-11-18600028中国石化12.3216.4814.552009-11-18600064南京高科25.2013.0611.132009-11-16000715中兴商业9.9643.5738.482009-11-16600717天津港12.1113.388.282009-11-13601872招商轮船5.5815.059.392009-11-12600026中海发展14.5412.386.592009-11-11000012南玻A17.7528.4522.902009-11-11600741华域汽车10.2416.1110.572009-11-11600195中牧股份23.1312.416.862009-11-10600438通威股份9.2642.3336.542009-11-10600428中远航运11.3412.436.652009-11-9600227赤天化11.5521.7315.562009-11-9000022深赤湾14.2021.6915.512009-11-6000726鲁泰A9.9037.9831.232009-11-6600028中国石化12.2217.4310.682009-11-5600271航天信息18.3833.9026.822009-11-4000528桂柳工19.1722.5914.942009-1600177雅戈尔14.3115.167.522009-11-3600736苏州高新7.4543.6234.622009-10-30000823超声电子7.5986.3072.412009-10-30600588用友软件20.1154.0540.162009-10-28600125铁龙物流7.4471.2459.672009-10-28600718东软集团20.8538.1326.562009-10-27002267陕天然气18.9835.1926.882009-10-27000898鞍钢股份13.6019.5611.242009-10-26601872招商轮船5.3320.4512.172009-10-23600797浙大网新5.9053.9043.422009-10-22600966博汇纸业9.7214.925.162009-10-22000402金融街13.4014.554.792009-10-20600837海通证券14.3344.4533.372009-10-20600026中海发展13.2823.0411.962009-10-19000024招商地产27.1427.8213.742009-10-19000680三推股份11.5624.1310.062009-10-19600348国阳新能42.7019.445.362009-10-16000937金牛能源34.0041.1526.992009-10-16000876新希望11.8026.2712.122009-10-15000933神火股份27.7546.4131.832009-10-150000616亿城股份6.0942.2027.612009-10-14000027深圳能源11.6225.399.772009-10-14601898中煤能源12.3823.678.052009-10-13000059辽通化工10.1633.7616.422009-10-12000401冀东水泥14.3339.2222.332009-10-12600016民生银行6.9823.937.032009-10-12600642申能股份10.9021.014.122009-10-9000612焦作万方17.8580.3957.322009-10-9601088中国神华30.3628.105.022009-9-22600177雅戈尔13.2324.579.312009-9-18600037歌华有线12.3555.3844.002009-9-18600064南京高科22.3027.7616.372009-9-17002104恒宝股份10.20126.76113.262009-9-17600410华胜天成12.3172.7159.202009-9-16601898中煤能源12.9418.326.342009-9-15000402金融街12.7120.778.482009-9-15600795国电电力7.0719.527.232009-9-14000926福星股份8.8863.9649.762009-9-14000562宏源证券20.1031.8417.642009-9-9600736苏州高新6.6062.1245.502009-9-9600026中海发展12.8427.2610.632009-9-8600060海信电器12.06136.24117.102009-9-7000933神火股份24.0069.2949.112009-9-7600697欧亚集团18.4958.4138.232009-9-4600271航天信息15.8854.9733.802009-9-4000401冀东水泥13.4448.4427.272009-9-3600741华域汽车7.9549.5621.642009-8-27600178东安动力10.5574.4157.842009-8-27000759武汉中百9.5249.1632.592009-8-25600655豫园商城16.3193.0778.562009-8-25600831广电网络7.4191.7777.262009-8-25600664哈药股份16.5821.296.782009-8-21600736苏州高新6.3468.7751.162009-8-6600085同仁堂18.6038.0138.052009-8-6600439瑞贝卡9.9335.2535.282009-8-5600004白云机场10.6615.9515.882009-8-4000612焦作万方22.6042.4842.052009-8-4600018上港集团6.3711.9311.512009-8-3000401冀东水泥15.6027.8826.052009-7-31600028中国石化14.1210.205.572009-7-31600019宝钢股份9.459.314.682009-7-30600718东软集团18.2757.6450.762009-7-29600845宝信软件25.4348.0946.842009-7-29000729燕京啤酒15.7939.9638.702009-7-29000876新希望11.7826.4925.232009-7-28600808马钢股份5.9220.4418.852009-7-27600557康缘药业15.2470.5466.842009-7-27000488晨鸣纸业8.8119.5215.832009-7-24600704中大股份16.9070.0665.922009-7-23600308华泰股份12.3743.4137.972009-7-23600500中化国际13.3010.835.392009-7-22600690青岛海尔14.2981.8874.442009-7-22600230沧州大化14.5767.8160.372009-7-21600309烟台万华17.5750.2644.352009-7-21000709唐钢股份9.9613.657.752009-7-20600138中青旅12.1057.6049.562009-7-20600004白云机场10.0423.1115.062009-7-17600858银座股份21.4133.5824.962009-7-16600685广船国际24.9341.0332.172009-7-16600087长航油运6.8524.8215.952009-7-16000680山推股份12.3716.017.142009-7-15000989九芝堂10.7846.1036.022009-7-15600795国电电力7.5615.875.792009-7-14601991大唐发电8.5941.2128.062009-7-14600693东百集团9.2532.7619.602009-7-13600085同仁堂17.4846.8534.942009-7-13600717天津港13.1217.385.472009-7-9000568泸州老窖29.3437.6624.212009-7-9600068葛洲坝12.5118.715.262009-7-8600418江淮汽车5.98108.7094.852009-7-7600690青岛海尔13.2895.7183.022009-7-7600143金发科技9.3540.1127.422009-7-3600122宏图高科13.1950.8735.042009-7-2000562宏源证券21.6829.0611.602009-7-1000401冀东水泥13.8044.5724.462009-6-30601919中国远洋13.8246.2426.642009-6-30601898中煤能源12.4435.7716.182009-6-29600736苏州高新5.8881.9760.412009-6-29600664哈药股份14.1142.5220.962009-6-26000933神火股份19.61107.1985.222009-6-26000718苏宁环球13.4233.3811.412009-6-25000024招商地产28.7337.4915.622009-6-25601006大秦铁路10.3726.814.942009-6-24600005武钢股份8.1154.1330.812009-6-24601628中国人寿26.8829.025.702009-6-22600019宝钢股份6.6555.3431.862009-6-22601088中国神华27.6652.3928.912009-6-19000800一汽轿车15.1082.4558.142009-6-19000527美的电器13.1879.0654.712009-6-18600281太化股份7.3665.7639.442009-6-18000729燕京啤酒14.6251.1624.882009-6-12000759武汉中百9.6447.3018.892009-6-11000728国元证券18.2551.6724.462009-6-11600019宝钢股份6.9149.4922.282009-6-10000612焦作万方13.59136.94108.482009-6-10600665天地源5.7544.3515.892009-6-9002142宁波银行10.9863.4834.502009-6-9600322天房发展5.6636.407.412009-6-8600785新华百货16.3891.2761.882009-6-8600030中信证券26.9044.2414.852009-6-5600966博汇纸业7.86