中国地能源问题（英文）

China’sEnergyIssuesLIUXiaoliEnergyResearchInstituteofNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionOutlineCurrentSituationofChina’sEnergyMarketanditsCharacteristicsin2008ImplicationsonChina’sEnergyDevelopmentCurrentSituationofChina’sEnergyMarketanditsCharacteristicsin2008StableQuickerGrowthofChina’sEconomy(1)Chinakeptahighergrowthrateofeconomicgrowth(9%)in2008althoughthecountryexperiencedseverallargernaturaldisastersinthehistoryaswellasglobalfinancialcrisis.Source:ChinaStatisticsPress,“ChinaStatisticalYearbook”,variousyears;Datain2008isestimated

Growths(2007-2008)Steel:489.3

500.49Mt,1.1%Cement:1361.21388.4Mt,5.2%Ethylene:10.2810.25Mt,-2.1%Cars:8.889.62mill,6.5%Chinasustainedhigherrateofinvestmentinfixedassets(25.5%)andhadsomeadjustmentinitsinvestmentstructure.Ininvestmentinfixedassetsofcitiesandtowns,primaryindustrygrewat54.5%,28%forsecondindustryand24.1%fortertiaryindustry;Economicstructureisoptimizingandpeople'slivelihoodhasbeenimproved;China’sindustrialproductiongrewslowly,value-addedofindustryhada5.6percentdeceasecomparedto2007;Incrementalgrowthofenterprises’profitsloweddown,onlyincreasing4.9%comparedto2007;FDIin2008reached92.4billionUS$,increasing23.58%comparedwiththesameperiodin2007;StableQuickerGrowthofChina’sEconomy(2)CPIin2008wasbacktostabilization(5.9%);Import/exportvalueskeptsmoothlyincreaseinthewholeyearof2008,butitsgrowthrateinthefourthquarterhadabiggerdecline.CharacteristicsofElectricPowerMarketin2008

Affectedbyglobalfinancialinfluence,electricityconsumptionandgenerationgreatlydeclinedin2008.Electricityconsumptionincreasedby5.23%andhad9.57percentdecreasecomparedto2007,thelowestgrowthrateinthelasteightyears.Generationutilizationhourreducedfast,having337hoursdecreasecomparedto2007;Bytheendof2008,totalinstalledpowercapacityreached793GW.Ofthetotal,171.5GWforhydropower,accountingfor21.6%and601.3GWforthermalpower,accountingfor75.8%

;Source:ChinaStatisticsPress,“ChinaEnergyStatisticalYearbook”,variousyears;Datain2008isestimated

RapidDevelopmentofGreenElectricPowerChina’spowerindustrykeptrapiddevelopmentin2008.Newincrementalinstalledpowercapacityin2008reached90.5GW,ofthetotal,20.1GWforhydropower,EquivalenttoanotherThreeGorgeshydropowerstationtoputintooperationinone-year;Totalwindpowerinstalledcapacitycameto10GW,rankingthefifthintheworld;Nuclearpowerplantswith15.12GWofinstalledcapacityhasbeenconstructedinlastyear,beingthesumofthepast20years.CharacteristicsofCoalMarketin2008Coalconsumptionin2008continuedquickergrowthatAAGRof5.9%andreachedaround2.74billiontons.However,itsincrementalpacestarteddecreaseafterSept.of2008duetothedeclineofgrowthrateinmajorcoalconsumptionsectorslikepowersector,iron&steelindustryetc.;Coalproductiongrewby7.65%fromthepreviousyearandreached2.72billiontonsCoalpricein2008keptrisingduringthesecondquarterandrapidlydeclinefromthesecondhalfyearbecausebothinternationalcoalpriceanddomesticcoalconsumptiondropped;Coalmarketwillfaceaoversupplyproblemduetodecreasingdemandforcoalin2009.Chinakeptahighergrowthrateofoilconsumptioninthewholeyearof2008andoilconsumptioninChinareached389Mtatgrowthrateof6.5%;China’soilconsumptionmarkettookplacedagreaterchangefrom“hot”to“cool”in2008duetotheinfluencebydomesticandglobaleconomicsituations;Domesticcrudeoilproductionincreasedby2.3%fromthepreviousyear,thehighestgrowthrateinthelastthreeyearsandreached189.73Mtin2008;Refinerythroughputin2008grewto343Mt,increasing3.7%comparedwith2007.Gasoline,keroseneanddieseloutputreached208Mt;Chinaimportedcloseto200Mtofcrudeoilandoilproductsin2008,atgrowthrateof12.5%.Importdependenceonoilreachedover50%.Chinaoilproduction,MtMajorCharacteristicsofCurrentOilMarketChinaoilconsumption,MtDomesticnaturalgassupplyincreasedveryrapidlyatarateof12.3%in2008andtotalled

76.1BCMofnaturalalthoughitsproportioninthetotalprimaryenergysupplyisstillquitesmall;Gasconsumptiongrewfastanditsconsumptionstructurehasbeengreatlychangedinrecentyears;ChinastartedimportingLNGfrominternationalmarketin2006andtotallyimported3.34MtofLNGin2008,increasing14.5%comparedto2007.

20002007ConsumptionShareConsumptionShareChemicaluse90.336.822332.1Power6.42.670.810.2Industrialfuel106.143.3217.531.3Transport5.82.416.92.4Residential&Commercialuse36.414.9166.624Total245100694.8100Chinagasconsumptionbysector(10^8m3,%)MajorCharacteristicsofCurrentGasMarketChinagasproductionSource:ChinaStatisticsPress,“ChinaEnergyStatisticalYearbook”,variousyears;Datain2008isestimated

ImplicationsonChina’sEnergyDevelopmentImplicationsonChina’sEnergyDevelopment

Toadjustenterprises’businessstructureinordertodealwithchallengesfromdecreasesofproducts’demandandpricesTimelyutilizeoverseaenergyresourcesandstrengtheninternationalcooperationStrengthentheexplorationanddevelopmentofoilandgasresourcesinoffshareanddeep-seaareas;

MaintainstableandhealthydevelopmentofenergyindustrySpeedupbuildingpaceofoilstrategicreservesSpeedUptheDevelopmentofNuclearPowerBytheendof2008,altogether11nuclearpowerunitshavebeeninoperation,withatotalinstalledcapacityof9.08GWanditsshareinthetotalpowerinstalledcapacityisonly1.2%in2007;Bytheendof2008,thereare11nuclearpowerunitswithatotalinstalledcapacityof11GWtobebuildinginGuangdong,ZhejiangandLiaoningprovinces,etc.Andanother15nuclearpowerunitswithatotalinstalledcapacityof16.9GWhavebeenapprovedtobuildinthenearfuture;Nuclearpowerisenteringintoafastdevelopmentperiodasoneofenergyresourceswhocanhaveadvantageousconditionstodeveloponalargescaleexcepthydropower;Thenationaltargetfornuclearpowerdevelopmentis40GWby2020,thetargetisexpectedtobeadjustedandwillreach70GWby2020,accountingforover5percentofthenationaltotalpowersupply.RenewableEnergyOutlookGeneraltargetsofREinNationalMiddleandLong-termStrategicPlanningPotentialcapacity:400GWinstalledhydrocapacity:171.5GW(year2008)1/3isSHPAnnualpowerproduction:563TWh(year2008)MaturetechnologyandindustryTarget:190GWin2010and300GWin2020RenewableEnergyOutlook--hydropowerRenewableEnergyOutlook--WindPowe