荷兰石油SWOT分析英文版

SectorSketchandSWOTAnalysisoftheDutchOilSector

–FinalPresentation–

DutchMinistryofEconomicAffairs

OilDivisionTheHague,3rdFebruary1999AconflictappearstobeemergingbetweenthetraditionalDutcheconomicstrengthsandmorerecentenvironmentalconcernsDutcheconomicprosperityOilindustryfocussedonexportsFoundedontradingMotorofRotterdamtradingstrengthDutchenvironmentLegitimateenvironmentalconcernsHighpopulationdensitylow-lying-vulnerabletoGlobalwarmingGlobalwarmingCongestionNoiseExportindustrymustbeinternationallycompetitivetosurviveToughenvironmentalstanceConflictContentsPageA.ExtractsfromSectorSketchB.FeedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviewsC.SWOTAnalysisC.1.StrengthsC.2.WeaknessesC.3.OpportunitiesC.4.ThreatsD.Recommendations47111217232631A.ExtractsfromSectorSketchTheDutchoilindustryhastraditionallybeenstrongandinternationallyorientatedRefiningandChemicalsTradingPortsOnly15%oftotaloilsupplydestinedforhomemarketAccountsfor9%ofEUrefiningcapacityKeysynergieswithandsupplytoDutchchemicalsindustryBeneluxchemicalclusterissecondlargestinEuropeRotterdam‘world’sleadingport’for30yearsRoad,rail,inlandwaterwayandpipelineconnectionstomanymajormarketsMajoroiltradingmarketintheEUtimezoneandoneofthebig3globally(Rotterdam,Houston,Singapore)EachsectorintheoilindustryfacesimportantissuesaffectingitscompetitivepositionOilrefiningIncreasingcostsofenvironmentalcomplianceMergers/allianceschangethecompetitivesceneOvercapacityandlowreturnsStorageSupportstheinternationalbusinessFostersindependenttradersOvercapacityandlowreturnsTradingStrongroleofrefiningcompaniesDependentoncriticalmassofRotterdammarketBunkeringImportantfueloiloutletforrefinersRefinersbecomingdominantPipelinesPipelinesandwaterwayskeytoRotterdamlogisticaladvantageDominatedbyprivateorconsortiumownedpipelinesChemicalsImportantsynergieswithoilsectorSectorenteringdownturnLong-termgrowthpotentialB.FeedbackfromoilandchemicalcompanyinterviewsEnvironmentalandclean-upregulationswerecentraltoviewsexpressedbymostintervieweesRoleoftheNetherlandsDecision

makingbodiesLandreleaseCurrentsituationIndustryviewpointAlternativeapproachGoesaheadofcompetingcountriesonenvironmentalissuesThisunderminescompetitivepositionofoilandchemicalindustriesLeadbyinfluencingEUconsensusratherthanbyexampleSignificantregionalandnationalvariationonenvironmentalregulationsCompetitiontobegreenerVariationpreventstheexistenceofa‘levelplayingfield’PlaceenvironmentaldecisionmakingandimplementationinthehandsofonebodyClean-upcostsareaformidableexitbarrierLandcanbereleasedifeconomicallyviableCostsofclean-upshouldbebalancedagainstcostoflandreclamationHowever,thegovernment’swillingnesstodiscussandreachconsensuswasappreciatedAllintervieweesrecognisedthe‘WorldClass’infrastructureofRotterdam,althoughtherearethreemajorcontentiousissuesPortfeesCommon

carrierpipelineMaasvlakte2CurrentsituationIndustryviewpointAlternativeapproachHarbourduesbasedontonnageratherthanservicesusedRotterdamismoreexpensivethanAntwerp,LeHavreorHamburg.Theoilindustry‘subsidises’thecontainerindustryBasechargesmoreonservicesthanontonnagebasisNocommon-carrierpipelineexistsMaybeeconomicallyviableConsidercommoncarrierwhereextraflexibilityneeded,butcompensateownersofpipelinesforinvestmentandriskPositivediscussionlikely:newlandreclamationathighcostExtralandwillfavourchemicalsectorTheoilindustrydoesnotrequireextralandEnsureproperfundingforMaasvlakte2:NoburdenonoilindustryPressureforrationalisationislikelytocoincidewithtimingofinvestmenttomeetfuturefuelspecificationsOvercapacityFuturefuelspecificationsCurrentsituationIndustryviewpointDespiterecentclosures,thereremainsupto15%overcapacityAsmanyas13EUrefineriesneedtocloseIssuecomplicatedfurtherbyrecentmergersClean-upcostsremainthebiggestbarriertoexit;socialcostsarealsosignificantTargetspecificationsfor2005require€40bninvestmentacrosstheEUOftheDutchrefineries,onlyEssoandShellarewellplacedtomeet2005specswithoutmajorinvestmentC.SWOTAnalysisC.1.StrengthsTheDutchoilsectorislargeandwellconcentrated,accountingfor9%ofEUrefiningcapacity(comparedto4.5%consumption)EuropoortPernisCrudeCapacity(b/d)NerefcoShellEssoTotalKPIS&H374,000400,000180,000148,00070,00010,000BotlekVlissingen+xAmsterdamEuropoort79,500KochEuropoortSource:MinistryofEconomicAffairsAllelementsoftheoilsectorarecloselyintegratedChemicalclusterRefiningInternationaltradingportOpenandco-operativegovernmentStorageandBunkeringServices,utilitiesandcontractorsThisintegrationissupportedbyworldclassinfrastructureHarboursandterminalsDeepwaterharbours,particularlyRotterdamDirectaccessibilityfortheworld’slargesttankersHighvolumecapacityandshortturn-aroundtimeExtensivebargehandlingPipelinesSupplyBelgiumandGermanywithcrudeandproductsConnectionstomajorchemicalclustersinandbeyondtheNetherlandsMorethan1100kmnetworkwithinRotterdamlinkingproducersandstoragecompaniesRoadandRailConsiderableinfrastructurecurrentlyinplaceMajorinvestmentprogrammeinprogressTheDutchports,particularlyRotterdam,benefitfromadvantageouslocationsClosetoNorthSeaoilfieldsNaturalportforMEcrudesdestinedforNWEuropeanmarketHollandoneofthemostdenselypopulatedEuropeancountriesPopulationof160millionwithin500kmradiusNavigableinlandwaterwaystomajormarketsC.2.WeaknessesOvercapacityhasledtolowprofitabilityintheDutchoilsectorandincreasingpressureforrationalisationRefiningStorageOvercapacityinHollandreflectsthetrendinEUasawholeExportrefinerieswithlowconversioncapacityarevulnerable(althoughspecialitynicheshelpprofitability)LongtermstructuralovercapacityRecentmergersandalliancescreateanuncertainoutcomeforDutchoilOftheNetherlandsrefineries,onlyShellandEssohavetheup-gradingflexibilitytomeetfuturedemandswithonlylimitedinvestmentSource:IEA;DutchMinistryofEconomicAffairs,RB&PanalysisFCCequivalentconversioncapacity(%distillationcapacity)DistillationcapacityMT/year12%25%99%3.820.07.4918.737%KPIEuropoortTotal/DOWVlissingenEssoRotterdamShellPernisNerefco(BP/Texaco)Europoort34%EURefineries

average66%38%Germany40%UnitedKingdom24%France23%BelgiumAverageConversionCapacities54%TheNetherlandsInaddition,theNetherlandsattemptstoleadratherthangowithEuropeanenvironmentallegislationEUhassetnewproductspecificationsButNo‘levelplayingfield’forrefineryemissionsat

EUlevelEnforcementofregulationsstricterinNetherlandsInconsistenciesbetweenNational,RegionalandMunicipalauthoritiesDutchOilSectorThecostofclean-upregulationsinRotterdamisdistortingtheincentivesfortheoilindustrytoreleaseunusedlandbutTheLose-LoseoutcomecanonlychangetoWin-WinbyalteringtheincentivesforlandreleaseClean-upcostsinEUarebetweenNLG100m-NLG400mperrefinery(~NLG60-120/m2)Evenwhereplantshaveclosed,oilindustryhasincentivetoretainlandandpayrentratherthanpayimmediateclean-upcostSimilareconomicsconstrainreleaseofsurpluslandfromstorageterminalsProjectedshortageoflandforexpansionisdrivingMaasvlakte2projectCostoflandreclamationisexpensiveandwillbebornebytaxpayerinitially(NLG500/m2)GovernmentpolicyisseentofocussolelyonRotterdam,partlyasaconsequenceofMainPortPolicyVlissingenOnlyonejettyterminal

(upto120,000dwt)IsolatedfromnaturalgaspipelinesWhenchemicalcompaniesfoundRotterdamunfavourable,AntwerpwaschosenaboveotherDutchportsAmsterdamGrowthlimitedbywaterdepth/shipsizeLackofrefininglimitssynergiesbetweenoilandchemicals

C.3.OpportunitiesThereareopportunitiesfornewbusinessesorsubstantialextensionstoexistingactivitiesEnergyPipelinesElectricityco-generationLowlevelheatcollectionanddistributionCO2collectionforgreenhousesCommoncarriertoreducetransportcostsandmeetenvironmentalaimsEthylenepipelineforchemicalsHighvalue-addedproductionStorageUpgradeproductsforrefineriesunabletomeetenvironmentalspecsHighqualityproductstrategyforexporttopremiummarketsPushforhighershareofchemicalsgrowthUseexcessstoragetoholdstrategicstocksforwholeEUOvercapacityisalong-termproblemthatneedstobeaddressedbyindustrybutmaybehelpedbyGovernmentassistanceFocusesinvestmentonareasofstrengthThereispotentialforindividualplantclosuresRecentmergers/clusterapproachmayleadtonewcombinationsOpportunityActionAimStrongestunitsoperatenearfuelcapacityLandwouldbemadeavailableforportexpansionGovernmentIntroduceincentivesforclean-upofformerorsurplussitesBestuseofunusedlandCompaniesoptimisewithininternationalnetworksFocusonstrongcompetitiveunitsGovernmentsponsordiscussiononoptimisationAlternativeforuncompetitiveunits

C.4.ThreatsThegreatestthreatisthatpressuretoadoptthehighestenvironmentalstandardswillhittheoilindustrytoohard,anderodepublicsupportOver-zealousenvironmentalismcouldbreaktheDutchoilindustryNetherlandsismuchtougheronpolicingcommonenvironmentalrulesthanotherEUstatesPressuregroupsandMunicipalitiescompetetoappeargreenerImplementationmethodsarenotseenasconsistentwiththetrueneedsOilmaynolongerbeseenasacontributortosocietyHighcostsassociatedwithRotterdamarecurrentlyoutweighedbyadvantages.Shiftsinthelabourrate-productivitybalancecouldchangethisPortduesontonnagebasishasledtohighestcrudeimportcostsinEuropeHighconstructioncostsOneofthehighestlabourratesinEuropeHighsocialcostsCompetitivelogisticsProximitytomarketplaceHighlabourproductivitySkilledworkforce/tradingexperienceLowportlandrentalsExternalcompetitionmayincreaseorbecomedistortedEUCompetitionGlobalCompetitionCheaperservicesatcompetingportsPetropreneursbuycheapassetsEUmemberstatesorunionssupportownweakerrefineriesMiddleEastoilproductandbasechemicalexportsChemicalgrowthattractedtoUSbylowercostsSubstitutionandnewtechnologycouldcausea‘surprise’dropinoildemand,butnosignificantchangelikelybefore2005TransportCommonrailtechnologywillmakedieselsubstantiallymoreefficientHybridenginesBiomassethanolcouldsubstitutemogasanddieselFuelcelltechnologynosignificantimpactbefore2005IncreaseindieselmarketsharemaydistortrefineryeconomicsLPG/CNGsubstitutionofmogasanddieselThecurrentverylowcrudeoilpriceswilldelayanysubstitutioneffectsOtherusesGas(fromRussia/NorthSea)willsubstituteheatingoilinBelgiumandGermanyRenewablefuelsinexportmarketsFOforelectricityGOhome/commercialheatingLFOforindustry

D.RecommendationsFourkeyissuesneedtobeaddressedtoensurelongterminternationalcompetitivenessoftheoilindustryLongtermcompetitivenessStableindustrialpolicyAffordableenvironmentalpolicyActiononinfrastructurecostsOptimisationofoilindustryThereisalsoscopeforstreamliningproceduresandencouragingnewvalue-addedactivitiesAstable,visiblegovernmentpolicyfortheoilsectorneedstobeagreed,andexternaltrendsregularlymonitoredSeekconsensusonenvironmenttrade-offsizeofoilindustrytypeofoilactivitieslocationandlogisticscorridorsPubliciseagreedvisionOwnplansLinkageswithowninternationalnetworksImplicationsoflocationsConcreteidesImplicationsofincreaseordecreaseinoilindustrypresenceVROMpartofconsensusLocalauthoritiesbroughtintoconsensusandlocationplanningLongtermpolicydevelopmentEvaluateinternationaloilindustrytrendsProvideowninformationandbenchmarksoncompetitivenessofDutchoilindustryBenchmarkcostinfrastructureandchargesVROMCompareotherEUstatesenvironmentregulationsRegularfeedbackMinistryofEconomicAffairsOilIndustryPortsOtherEnvironmentalprinciplesforoilshouldbalancetheneedforcompetitivenesswithDutchenvironmentneedsAgreeapproachwithVROMMonitorproposalsthataddextracostabovecompetitorsEnsureonlyimplementedifenvironmentimpacthighReviewexistingtargetsforoilindustrySeekchangesifunduecompetitivepenaltyProvidecredibleestimatesofcompliancecostsProvidecomparisonswithcompetingareasAffordableenvironmentpolicyFlexibleimplementationVROMOnlyactaheadofcompetitornationsforclearbenefitVROMRetainflexiblemechanismsforimplementationConsideruseoftradingrightsAtsametime,continuetoencouragewiderEUprogressonenvironmentalstandards

and‘levelplayingfield’MinistryofEconomicAffairsOilIndustryOtherOptimisation,includingscopeforeconomicallyviablerationalisation,mustbeaddressedbytheoilindustry-butwithactiveencouragementoftheMinistryExplorescope/benefitsofoptimisationand/orrationalisationOptimisewithinowninternationalnetworksScopeforoptimisationRemovebarrierstorationalisationDiscusschangeofapproachtoclean-upcostsofportlandRevealfullpotentialforreleaseofportlandRevieweffectofanythroughputreductionsExplorecost/benefitofportlandreleasedcomparedtolandreclamationVROMtoreviewlandclean-uprequirementsBarrierstorationalisationSecuresupportof

authoritiesforrationalisation/optimisationVROMCompetitionauthoritiesLocalauthoritiesEnablingroleObjectofoptimisationistosecurelongtermcompetitiveness.SomerationalisationmayalsoreduceemissionsandcongestionMinistryofEconomicAffairsOilIndustryPortsOtherFurtheractionstomaintainstrongandcompetitiveinfrastructureshouldbeconsideredConsiderselectedexistingpipelinesascandidatesNewpipelineinvestmentwhereviableLogisticsEnsurefastapprovalanddevelopmentofinfrastructureprojectsCompetitivelocalauthoritytaxes/ratesIfbenchmarkingshowsportinefficiency,considerprivatisationMonitorsocialcostsPortandothercostsMinistryofEconomicAffairsOilIndustryPortsOtherConsidercommoncarrierpipelinesJustificationFinancialsupportFairrewardforexistingownersConsiderpotentialscopeOilproductsfromthreeportsLowlevelwasteheatinRotterdamEthyleneinRotterdamCO2collectionKeepportduescompetitivewithEUCo-ordinatepoliciesbetweenthreeoilportsRegulationsandproceduresneedtobeconsistentlyappliedandinsomecasessimplifiedDevisestandardpracticeforapplicationofregulationsRemoveconfusionbetweendifferentbodiesofnational/localgovernmentConsistentapplicationOperationalregulationsRegions,municipalitiesandothergovernmentdepartmentstoobservestandardpracticeMakelandusedecisionsforRotterdamsubjecttosingleauthority(Rijnmond)SimplifycustomsandoperationrulesComparetootherEUReducenumberofinspectionsMinistryofEconomicAffairsPortsOtherBunkerfraudTaketoughmeasurestoeradicatefraudandrestorereputationOilindustryTheMinistrycanencouragefurtherdevelopmentofsomevalueaddedactivitiesContinuetoencouragegrowthinchemicalsChemicalsInvestwhenviableMinistryofEconomicAffairsProvideincentivesforinvestmentsinLPG/CNGandrenewablesstorageCleanerfuelsPromoteco-generationthroughelectricityliberalisationCo-generationDevelopagreementtoholdstrategicstocksforotherEUcountriesStorageHighqualityproductsOptimiseownnetworkstorageinternationallyinNWEUseupgradingadvantagetogainnewhigheradded-valuemarkets《化妆品术语》起草情况汇报中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所一、标准的立项和下达时间2006年卫生部政法司要求各标委会都要建立自己的术语标准。1ONE二、标准经费标准研制经费：3.8万三、标准的立项意义术语标准有利于行业间技术交流、提高标准一致性、消除贸易误差，作为标准体系中的基础标准，术语标准在各个领域的标准体系中均起着重要的作用。随着我国化妆品卫生标准体系建设逐步加快，所涉及的术语和定义的数量也在迅速增长，在此情形下，化妆品术语标准的制定就显得尤为重要。四、标准的制订原则1.合法性遵守《化妆品卫生监督条例》、《化妆品卫生监督条例实施细则》中关