2023美国对华出口报告（英）-美中贸易全国委员会

USExportstoChina

GoodsandServicesExportstoChinaandtheJobsTheySupport,byStateandCongressionalDistrict

2023

ExecutiveSummary

USexportstoChinasupportabroadswathoftheUSeconomy.Theseexportscontributeto

Americanlivelihoodsacrossthecountry.ThisreportexploresthelatestcomprehensivedataavailableforbothUSgoods(2022)andservices(2021)exportstoChina,aswellastheAmericanjobs(2021)theysupport.ChinawastheUnitedStates’third-largestgoodsexportmarketin2022anditssixth-

largestservicesexportmarketin2021.Forcombinedgoodsandservicesexportsin2021,Chinawas

thetopexportmarketforfourstates,inthetop

threemarketsfor38states,andwithinthetop

fivemarketsforallbutthreestates.ChinaisjustoneofthreecountrieswhosepurchasesofUS

goodsandservicessupportedmorethan1

millionjobs—CanadaandMexicoweretheothertwo.

TheUS-Chinatraderelationshiphasgrown

steadilyfordecades,butin2022,itappearedtoweakenslightly.GoodsexportstoChina

reachedarecordhigh,butmuchofthatyear-

over-yeargrowthcanlikelybeattributedto

inflation.WhencomparedtoUSexportstoothertopmarkets,goodsexportstoChinagrewata

significantlyslowerrate.Stuntedeconomic

growthinChina,Russia’swarinUkraine,and

US-Chinatensionareweighingonthebilateraltraderelationship,asarelong-standingbarriers,

suchastariffs.Ontheservicesfront,USexportstoChinaincreasedin2021buthadnotrecoveredfromtheshockoftheCOVID-19pandemic.

$151.3billion

USgoodsexportstoChina,2022

1.06million

JobssupportedbyUSexportstoChina,2021

$39.6billion

USservicesexportstoChina,2021

$149.5billion

USgoodsexportstoChina,2021

USgoodsexportstoChinaincreasedby1.2

percentin2022andwereledbyoilseedsandgrains.Bothoilseedsandgrainsand

pharmaceuticalexportssawdouble-digitgrowthyearoveryear.WhilesemiconductorsandoilandgasremainedamongthetopgoodsexportstoChina,bothsawdouble-digitcontractions.

USservicesexportstoChinaincreasedby7percentin2021,witheducationandvarioustypesofroyaltiescomprisingthelargestcategories.Morethanhalfofstatesincreasedtheirservices

exportstoChinabyatleast5percent.Travel,historicallythelargestservicesexporttoChinabyfar,sunkevenlowerthanithadtheyearprior,andeducationexportssawamoderateincrease.

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USExportstoChina

USGoodsExportstoChina

OverallgoodsexportstoChinaincreased1.2percentyearoveryear,andthetopcategories

remainedlargelythesameaspreviousyears.Whileapositivegrowthfiguresuggests,atfirstglance,thatthebilateraltraderelationshipisexpanding,highinflationandotherfactorssuggestitis

wavering,atleastinafewkeysectors.GrowthinUSexportstoothertopforeignmarketsin2022faroutpacedgrowthinexportstoChina.

USgoodsexportstoChina(billion)

$149.5$151.3

$128.0

$114.0$113.8

$104.7

$121.4

$123.0

$119.8

$118.0

2013201420152016201720182019202020212022

ChangeinUSgoodsexportstoChina,2021-2022

-$1billion-$1billion+

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USExportstoChina

US-ChinaBusinessCouncil20233

USgoodsexportstoChinabycategory,2022

Allothers,$8.7B

TopUSgoodsexportmarkets,2022

Market

Exports(billion)

Growth(y/y)

1.Canada

2.Mexico

3.China

4.Japan

5.UnitedKingdon

6.Netherlands

7.SouthKorea

8.Germany

9.Brazil

10.India

$337.9

$313.8

$151.3

$78.5

$71.5

$70.6

$69.9

$69.5

$52.3

$46.2

15%

17%

1%

8%

27%

37%

8%

11%

14%

18%

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USExportstoChina

TopgoodsexporterstoChinabystate,2022

State

Exports

(billion)

Growth

(y/y)

Growth

(10year)

1.Texas$21.83%104%

2.California$17.78%13%

3.Oregon$8.2-21%181%

4.Illinois$6.69%8%

5.NorthCarolina$6.550%123%

6.Indiana$5.213%116%

7.Louisiana$4.58%120%

8.Minnesota$4.48%33%

9.Washington$4.145%-65%

10.Georgia$4.1-2%8.3%

TopUScongressionaldistrictgoodsexporterstoChina,2022

District

Exports

(billion)

Growth

(y/y)

Growth

(10year)

1.Oregon1st

$3.3

-22%

304%

2.Oregon6th

$3.2

-23%

273%

3.Texas38th

$3.2

-4%

541%

4.California17th

$2.0

6%

19%

5.Nebraska3rd

$1.9

12%

67%

6.NorthCarolina4th

$1.8

72%

375%

7.Iowa4th

$1.6

14%

66%

8.Texas36th

$1.5

14%

21%

9.Minnesota7th

$1.5

13%

37%

10.Indiana7th

$1.4

13%

997%

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USExportstoChina

DivingintotheDetails

OilseedsandgrainscementtheirplaceasthetopexporttoChina

Oilseedsandgrains—cropslikesoybeans,

wheat,andcorn—remainedthelargestexporttoChinabyfar.At$25.4billion,theseexports

totaledmorethantwicethesizeofthenext

largestcategory.USfarmerssent$3.6billionmoreinoilseedsandgrainstoChinathanthey

didtheyearbefore.AccordingtotheUS

DepartmentofAgriculture,thisgrowthislargely

attributable

tostrongdemandandhigherpricesofagriculturalgoodscomparedtotheprevious

year,asthevolumesofmostagricultureexportsactuallywentdown.Troubleinothermarkets—adroughtinSouthAmerica,apalmoilexportban

inIndonesia,andthewarinUkraine,an

importantexporterofwheat—putupward

pressureonprices.

Growthinoilseedsandgrainsexportswaswidely

$25.4B

USexportsofoilseedsandgrainsto

China

$21.7B

$17.1B

$13.6B

$8.3B

$3.8B

201720182019202020212022

distributedacrosstheUnitedStates.Thirtystatessawtheirexportsofthecropsexpand,and11statessaw

shipmentsgrowbymorethan$100million,withIllinoispostingthelargestincreaseofall:$653million.TenUSstatesshippedmorethan$1billioninthecropstoChinain2022.

Semiconductorexportsfalter

Exportsofsemiconductorsandtheircomponentryfellby$2.9billionlastyear,wipingoutthegrowthoftheyearbefore.China’sweakeconomyin2022,aresultofstrictCOVID-19travelpoliciesandwidespreadlockdowns,reducedthedemandforthesefoundationaltechnologies.USexportcontrolsonadvancedsemiconductorsandsemiconductormanufacturingequipment,whichtookeffectinOctoberof2022,alsoinhibitedexportstoChina.ThemorefrequentuseofexportcontrolsoverthelastfewyearshasledChinesecustomerstodeprioritize

Americanproductswhenthereareviabledomesticandthird-countrysuppliers.Oregon,thelargestexporterofthegoodsbyfar,comprisedthebulkofthenationaldeclinewitha$1.8billiondecreasein2022.However,

evenwithnewexportcontrolsinplace,chipsremainthesecond-largestgoodsexporttoChina.

USexportsofsemiconductorsandtheircomponentry

$14.2B

$12.0B

$9.7B

$8.1B

$7.1B

$11.2B

201720182019202020212022

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USExportstoChina

Oilandgas

WhileUSexportsofoilandgastoChinaremainedthethird-largestexportcategoryat$11billion,thefigure

actuallyrepresentsa$1.5billioncontractionfrom2021.Thedecreaseistheresultofareshufflingin

internationalpetroleummarketsafterRussia’sinvasionofUkrainebeganinFebruary2022.Russia’s

subsequentisolationfrommostmarketsdrasticallyloweredthepriceofRussianoilandgas,andsomeChineseimportersswitchedfromimportingtheproductfromtheUnitedStatesandotherproducersto

importingitfromRussia.TexasandLouisianaremainedbyfarthelargestexportersofoilandgastoChina,

shipping$7.7billionand$2.9billionrespectively,despitebothseeingyear-over-yearcontractionsofaround5percent.

PharmaceuticalandmedicineexportstoChinasawcontinuedgrowth

USexportsofpharmaceuticalsandmedicinestoChinacontinuedtheirgrowthstreak,jumping$3billionin

2022,or38percent.MuchofthisgrowthwasconcentratedinNorthCarolina,whichboosteditsexportsby

$2.1billioncomparedtotheyearprior.Ahandfulofstatesalsosawmassivegrowthrelativeto2021,with

RhodeIsland,Utah,Nevada,Arkansas,Michigan,Louisiana,andNorthCarolinaallmorethandoublingtheirpharmaceuticalexportstoChina.WhilethisreportdoesnotincludedataforterritoriessuchasPuertoRicoortheUSVirginIslands,itisnoteworthythatPuertoRicoexported$1.1billioninpharmaceuticalstoChinain

2022,behindonlyNorthCarolinaandIndiana.

Overthepastfewyears,Chinahasspedupregulatoryprocessesfornewdrugapprovals,whichhasallowedUScompaniestomorerapidlybringnewdrugstothecountry’smarket.WhilesomeUScompaniesareableto

exportalargeamountofhigh-value,high-demanddrugsthathavenodomesticequivalentsinChina,China’snationalpharmaceuticalprocurementprogrammayposealong-termbarriertocontinuedgrowthforUS

companiesinthissector.

USexportsofpharmaceuticalsandmedicinestoChina

$10.9B

$7.9B

$5.5B

$4.0B

$3.4B

$5.9B

201720182019202020212022

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USExportstoChina

USServicesExportstoChina

Comprehensivedataonservicesexportslagayearbehindthatofgoods,making2021thelatestyearofdataavailable.TheUnitedStatesexported$39.6billioninservicestoChinain2021,a7percentincreaseovertheyearpriorbutstillfarbelowthetrajectoryofUSservicesexportsbeforetheCOVID-19pandemic.Travel

exportstoChina,whichusedtoprovideasignificantcontributiontotheUSeconomy,continuedtosink,

allowingeducationandvariousintellectualpropertyandfinancialservicestotopthelist.Thatsaid,educationexportstoChinawerestillmuchlowerthantheywerepriortothepandemic.Categoriessuchasbusiness

managementandconsulting;miscellaneousbusiness,professional,andtechnologicalservices;and

book/musicroyaltiesmorethandoubledoverthecourseof2021,andChinaremainedtheUnitedStates’sixth-largestservicesexportmarket.

USservicesexportstoChina(billion)

$55.5$55.6

$51.8

$45.5

$41.3

$35.1

$29.8

$53.6

$39.6

$37.0

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

ChangeinUSservicesexportstoChina,2020-2021

-$100million-$100million+

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USExportstoChina

US-ChinaBusinessCouncil20239

USservicesexportstoChinabycategory,2021

Allothers,$2.5B

TopUSservicesexportmarkets,2021

Market

Exports

(billion)

Growth

(y/y)

1.Ireland

$74.8

11%

2.UnitedKingdon

$67.4

10%

3.UKIslands,Caribbean

$57.3

9%

4.Canada

$55.7

7%

5.Switzerland

$47.1

13%

6.China

$39.6

7%

7.Japan

$36

-3

8.Germany

$31.6

7%

9.Mexico

$30.1

30%

10.Singapore

$30

17

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USExportstoChina

TopservicesexporterstoChinabystate,2021

State

Exports

(billion)

Growth

(y/y)

Growth

(10year)

1.California

2.NewYork

3.Texas

4.Illinois

5.Massachusetts

6.Florida

7.Washington

8.Pennsylvania

9.Georgia

10.NorthCarolina

$7.9

$4.5

$2.9

$2.2

$2

$1.5

$1.4

$1.2

$1.2

$1.1

7%

12%

3%

13%

9%

6%

8%

5%

8%

6%

52%

52%

23%

41%

73%

-2%

30%

34%

25%

69%

Growth(10year)

TopservicesexporterstoChinabydistrict,2021

DistrictExports

Growth(y/y)

1.NewYork12th

$1.4billion

14%

60%

2.NewYork10th

$884million

-1%

52%

3.Massachusetts7th

$768million

12%

103%

4.Illinois5th

$645.2million

28%

80%

5.California42nd

$636million

9%

7%

6.California11th

$561.2million

10%

66%

7.California36th

$536million

17%

93%

8.California16th

$491million

4%

145%

9.Washington7th

$432.1million

7%

63%

10.California17th

$423.1million

1%

161%

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USExportstoChina

Travel

WhilemostnationsrelaxedtheirentryandexitpoliciesaftermRNAvaccinesweredeployedtofightthe

COVID-19pandemic,Chinawasanoutlier.Chinacontinuedtorestrictnon-citizens’andcitizens’entryfortheentiretyof2021and2022.Duringthistime,privatecitizensandbusinessexecutivesalikefounditnearly

impossibletosmoothlytravelbackandforthbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinaduetoextendedquarantinerequirements,limitedvisaavailability,andslowedpassportissuanceinChina.Asaresult,thetravelexports

figure—whichrepresentsmoneyspentbyChinesecitizensintheUnitedStates—sankevenfurtherin2021

andwillalmostcertainlynotshowsignsofrecoveryuntil2023.Since2019,thelastfullyearbeforetheCOVID-

19pandemicbegan,personal,business,andhealthtraveldecreasedadizzying98,96,and88percent

respectively.Nevada’sandHawaii’sservicesexportstotheworldhavebeencutinhalfsince2019,withtheirservicesexportstoChinaspecificallydroppingbymorethan70percentoverthesameperiod.

TravelexportstoChina,2019–2021

Change

Category201920202021(2019-2021)

1.PersonalTravel&Tourism

$9.4billion

$923million

$217million

-98%

2.BusinessTravel

$3.6billion

$350million

$136million

-96%

3.Medical-relatedTravel

$188million

$40million

$22million

-88%

Education

EducationexportstoChina,alsoimpactedbytravelandotherfactors,sawamoderateincreaseovertheyearprior.EducationexportsincludemoneythatChinesestudentsstudyingintheUnitedStatespayfortuition,

housing,books,andotherrelatedfees,whichareallimportantcontributionstolocaleconomies.Theseexportsincreasedby6percenttoaround$11.1billionin2021,thelargestfigureforanyservicescategorythatyear,

thoughthisisfarbelowpre-pandemiclevels.California,NewYork,andMassachusettsbenefitedthemostfromhostingChinesestudents,witheachseeingamorethan$1billioncontributionfromthemin2021.

Chinesestudentsremainthe

largest

demographicofinternationalstudentsstudyingatUSuniversities,buttheyarecomingtostudyinlowernumbersthanbefore.Sincethe2018−2019schoolyear,thenumberof

ChinesestudentscomingtostudyintheUnitedStateshasbeenonthedecline,andtheamountofmoney

ChinesestudentsarespendingintheUnitedStateshasdroppedaccordingly,plummetingbyaquartersince2019.OnlyArizonahasincreaseditseducationexportstoChinaduringthisperiod—andonlyby1percent.Delaware’seducationexportstoChinahavedroppedbyastaggering55percentsince2019,andKentuckyandWestVirginiabothexperienced45percentdeclines.

WhileuncertaintiesintheCOVID-19andtravelsituationswerelikelythechiefreasonsforlowereconomiccontributionsfromChinesestudentsin2020and2021,worseninggeopoliticaltensionsbetweentheUnitedStatesandChina,USvisapolicies,personalsafetyconsiderations,andincreasedcompetitionfromUK,

Canadian,Australian,Singaporean,anddomesticChineseuniversitiesmayalsohave

played

arole.Thesedynamicspredatethepandemicandarelikelytoendureeveniftravelbouncesback.

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USExportstoChina

1%

Ariizona-3%Maine

-6%Utah

-9%

Missouri

-10%

-12%

-15%

MarylandGeorgiaHawaii

-15%

-16%

NewHampshireMassachusetts

-18%

Illinois

-18%

NewYork

-19%

-19%

Tennessee

NorthCarolina

-21%

RhodeIsland

-22%

Wisconsin

-22%

Texas

-23%

-24%

-24%

-24%

-24%

Changeineducationexportsto-25%

Michigan NewJerseyPennsylvaniaOhio

Kansas

SouthDakota

-25%

China,2019–2021-25%

-25%

Indiana

Louisiana

Connecticut

-26%

-26%

-26%

VirginiaMinnesota

Alaska

-27%

-27%

-27%

California

NorthDakota

Montana

-28%

-28%

Vermont

Florida

-28%

-28%

Idaho

Arkansas

-29%

-29%

-29%

Alabama

SouthCarolina

-31%

-31%

WashingtonWyoming

NewMexico

-32%

-34%

-34%

MississippiColorado

Oklahoma

-36%

Nevada

-40%

Iowa

-41%

Nebraska

-42%

-45%

-45%

-55%

Oregon KentuckyWestVirginiaDelaware

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USExportstoChina

USJobsSupportedbyExportstoChina

WhilemuchofthefocusonexportstoChinacentersontheirfinancialcontributionstotheUSeconomy,thoseexportsalsosupportthousandsofAmericanjobsinstatesacrossthecountry.OurcalculationsofhowmanyjobsaresupportedbyexportstoChinatakebothgoodsandservicesintoaccount.Asaresult,thelatest

employmentdataavailablearefor2021.

In2021,USgoodsexportstoChinasoaredby22percentovertheyearprior,andservicesexportsincreasedslightly,creatinganoverallhealthyenvironmentforexport-supportedemploymentintheUnitedStates.Thatyear,anestimated1.06millionAmericanjobsweresupportedbyUSexportsofgoodsandservicestoChina.

ChinaisjustoneofthreecountrieswhosepurchasesofUSgoodsandservicessupportedmorethan1millionjobs—CanadaandMexicoaretheothertwo.China’spurchasessupportednearly500,000moreUSjobsthanthenexthighestcountry,theUnitedKingdom.

Unsurprisingly,giventhewidespreadgrowthinbothgoodsandservicesexportstoChinain2021,growthin

correspondingemploymentwasfairlyubiquitousacrossthecountry.AllbutthreeUSstatessawthenumberofexport-supportedjobsgrow.Thirty-fourstatessawthenumberofthesejobsgrowbyoveronethousand,andthreestatessawthemgrowbymorethan10,000.California’sandTexas’sexportstoChinasupportedthe

mostemployment,withanestimated132,400and106,900jobs,respectively.

ChangeinUSjobssupportedbyallUSexportstoChina,2020-2021

-10,000-10,000+

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USExportstoChina

USExportstoChina

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Jobssupportedbystates’

exportstoChina,2021

Allothers,

9,316

Agricultureandlivestockcontinuedtosupportjobsintheheartland

Agriculture-andlivestock-exportingstates,includingIllinois,Kansas,Nebraska,Iowa,Minnesota,andTexas,sawsomeofthelargestincreasesinthenumberofjobssupportedbyexportstoChinain2021.Startingin

2020,Chinadidawaywithcertainstructuraltradebarriersandofferedtariffreliefforagricultureandother

goodsinordertofulfillitspurchasecommitmentsunderthePhaseOneTradeAgreement.Inthecasesof

Kansas,Nebraska,NorthDakota,andSouthDakota,thenumberofjobssupportedbyexportstoChinahasmorethandoubledsince2019.

California’sdiverseexportshaveboostedjobs

Asinpastyears,California’sexportstoChinasupportedmorejobsthananyotherstate’s.In2021,Californiaalsosawthesecond-largestincreaseinexport-supportedjobs:17,500or15percent.Tenpercentof

California’sglobalgoodsexportswenttoChinain2021;thelargestcategoriesbeingindustrialmachinery,

navigationalandmeasuringinstruments,fruitsandtreenuts,andpharmaceuticals.Sixpercentofthestate’sglobalservicesexportswenttoChinathatyear,witheducation,royaltiesfromindustrialprocesses,andoceanfreightandportservicesleadingtheway.

HawaiiandNevadafeel