仿真实验报告

姓名：陈莺冰学号：31314217班级：物流142成绩：试验名称：库存系统仿真试验一试验思索题1、在以下几个情况下，对系统进行仿真试验：1）采购提前期服从均值为1负指数分布；2）缺货成本10元/件；3）采购提前期服从（3，10）天均匀分布；4）使用（Q，r）库存决议模型，即只要库存量低于r件，即发出采购订单，采购量为Q，其中Q，r取值分别为方案中S，L—需要修改模型；采取哪种库存决议方案效果最优呢？试经过仿真试验求解。答：仿真结果以下：1）Pns2103050100仓储费用3255.383369.643323.3603226.203565.79缺货费用2200.001880.002170.002235.002055.00订货费用8234.008076.008134.008201.007944.00总费用13528.3813218.6413627.3613662.2013415.79样本数据计算指标计算结果13528.38样本平均个数513218.64样本均值13490.47413627.36样本标准差179.677408413662.2抽样平均误差80.3541798313415.79置信水平0.95自由度4t值2.误差范围223.0989693置信下限13267.37503置信上限13713.572972）Pns2103050100仓储费用4609.764665.214808.324720.544811.19缺货费用1150.00490.001030.001330.001110.00订货费用9452.009313.009099.009607.009083.00总费用15211.7614367.2114761.3215535.5415004.19计算指标计算结果样本平均个数5样本均值14976.004样本标准差443.3326155抽样平均误差198.264373置信水平0.95自由度4t值2.误差范围550.4701478置信下限14425.53385置信上限15526.474153）Pns2103050100仓储费用1058.281085.021048.301106.971174.70缺货费用8360.007850.008000.008430.007865.00订货费用3386.003374.003392.003392.003338.00总费用12804.2812309.0212440.3012928.9712377.704)Pns2103050100仓储费用6616.786470.496629.986586.936652.72缺货费用190.0080.00135.00100.00180.00订货费用9116.008904.009116.009540.008904.00总费用15922.7815454.4915880.9816226.9315736.72（3）（4）样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果12804.28样本平均个数515922.78样本平均个数512309.02样本均值12572.05415454.49样本均值15844.3812440.30样本标准差276.422423615880.98样本标准差281.707077612928.97抽样平均误差123.619865916226.93抽样平均误差125.98323512377.70置信水平0.9515736.72置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围343.2237717误差范围349.7855363置信下限12228.83023置信下限15494.59446置信上限12915.27777置信上限16194.16554由上图可知：（1）方案误差范围最小，为223.（3）方案置信区间下限与上限最小，误差范围为343，综合分析，（3）方案最优。选择9_1题一个配置方案，经过改变伪随机数流，对每种库存策略做5次仿真试验，验证采取那种库存方案效果最优？答：选取3）配置方案，库存策略如图所表示：S=40s=20Pns2103050100仓储费用577.59604.56660.34590.04614.31缺货费用9450.008920.009100.009530.008875.00订货费用2736.002736.002736.002736.002736.00总费用12763.5912260.5612496.3412856.0412225.31样本平均个数5样本均值12520.368样本标准差285.90619抽样平均误差127.8611352置信水平0.95自由度4t值2.误差范围354.999423置信下限12165.36858置信上限12875.36742S=60s=20Pns2103050100仓储费用1262.221298.431382.531281.121328.02缺货费用7840.007220.007430.007830.007230.00订货费用3762.003816.003798.003816.003783.00总费用12864.2212334.4312610.5312927.1212341.02S=80s=20Pns2103050100仓储费用2213.962227.492380.622146.362174.45缺货费用6470.005525.005840.006250.005570.00订货费用4612.004893.004812.004824.004839.00总费用13295.9612645.4913032.6213220.3612583.45（3）S=60s=20S=80s=20样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果12864.22样本平均个数513295.96样本平均个数512334.43样本均值12615.46412645.49样本均值12955.57612610.53样本标准差279.880765913032.62样本标准差326.549651412927.12抽样平均误差125.166483613220.36抽样平均误差146.037443712341.02置信水平0.9512583.45置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围347.5178708误差范围405.4649458置信下限12267.94613置信下限12550.11105置信上限12962.98187置信上限13361.04095S=100s=20Pns2103050100仓储费用3339.003113.073400.173121.673362.57缺货费用5185.004520.004860.005095.004870.00订货费用5443.005524.005428.005545.005530.00总费用13967.0013157.0713688.1713761.6713762.57S=60s=40Pns2103050100仓储费用1262.221298.431382.531281.121328.02缺货费用7840.007220.007430.007830.007230.00订货费用3762.003816.003798.003816.003783.00总费用12864.2212334.4312610.5312927.1212341.02S=100s=20S=60s=40样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果13967样本平均个数512864.22样本平均个数513157.07样本均值13667.29612334.43样本均值12615.46413688.17样本标准差303.550806912610.53样本标准差279.880765913761.67抽样平均误差135.752047812927.12抽样平均误差125.166483613762.57置信水平0.9512341.02置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围376.9081086误差范围347.5178708置信下限13290.38789置信下限12267.94613置信上限14044.20411置信上限12962.98187S=80s=40Pns2103050100仓储费用2157.642227.492347.282146.362305.60缺货费用6420.005525.005875.006250.005855.00订货费用4674.004893.004791.004824.004668.00总费用13251.6412645.4913013.2813220.3612828.60S=100s=40Pns2103050100仓储费用3336.433349.983434.463183.583314.41缺货费用5185.004160.004965.005155.004585.00订货费用5443.005772.005365.005541.005490.00总费用13964.4313281.9813764.4613879.5813389.41S=80s=40S=100s=40样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果13251.64样本平均个数513964.43样本平均个数512645.49样本均值12991.87413281.98样本均值13655.97213013.28样本标准差258.255066913764.46样本标准差303.2498313220.36抽样平均误差115.49517713879.58抽样平均误差135.617446812828.6置信水平0.9513389.41置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围320.6660189误差范围376.5343963置信下限12671.20798置信下限13279.4376置信上限13312.54002置信上限14032.5064S=80s=60Pns2103050100仓储费用2157.642227.492347.282146.362305.60缺货费用6420.005525.005875.006250.005855.00订货费用4674.004893.004791.004824.004668.00总费用13251.6412645.4913013.2813220.3612828.60S=100s=60Pns2103050100仓储费用3312.593349.983499.623183.583486.55缺货费用5090.004160.004580.005155.004685.00订货费用5595.005772.005628.005541.005430.00总费用13997.5913281.9813707.6213879.5813601.55S=80s=60S=100s=60样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果13251.64样本平均个数513997.59样本平均个数512645.49样本均值12991.87413281.98样本均值13693.66413013.28样本标准差258.255066913707.62样本标准差276.178948913220.36抽样平均误差115.49517713879.58抽样平均误差123.510980812828.6置信水平0.9513601.55置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围320.6660189误差范围342.9214579置信下限12671.20798置信下限13350.74254置信上限13312.54002置信上限14036.58546由上表可知：误差范围最小为s=60S=80和s=40S=80,误差范围为320.置信下限最小为12165，是s=20S=40，置信上限最小为12875.误差范围为355.总而言之，s=20S=40库存方案效果最优。在示例模型中，订购费用具备批量折扣，即每件产品订购费用m为每次订购量函数，m=1+100/Q，其中Q为每次采购量，经过改变伪随机数流，对每种库存策略做5次仿真试验，验证采取那种库存方案效果最优？答：c3=32+(1+100/Q)*Q=132+Qs=20S=40Pns2103050100仓储费用2523.112562.202587.532504.552626.81缺货费用2070.002195.002145.002380.00.00订货费用10644.009868.0010203.0010506.009881.00总费用15081.1114625.2014763.5315236.5514522.81样本平均个数5样本均值14845.84样本标准差303.2373673抽样平均误差135.6118733置信水平0.95自由度4t值2.误差范围376.5189218置信下限14469.32108置信上限15222.35892s=20S=60Pns2103050100仓储费用3983.284117.694133.754064.574301.60缺货费用1825.001620.002335.002040.001605.00订货费用7673.007489.007301.007496.007495.00总费用13481.2813226.6913577.7513600.5713401.60 s=20S=80 Pns2103050100仓储费用5601.085709.175748.475841.215681.44缺货费用1460.001515.001595.001530.001515.00订货费用6450.006266.006225.006452.006233.00总费用13309.0813278.1713568.4713628.2113429.44s=20S=60s=20S=80样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果13481.28样本平均个数513309.08样本平均个数513226.69样本均值13457.57813278.17样本均值13442.67413577.75样本标准差151.568970713568.47样本标准差154.379647713600.57抽样平均误差67.7837043413628.21抽样平均误差69.0406773313401.6置信水平0.9513429.44置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围188.1977341误差范围191.6876506置信下限13269.38027置信下限13250.98635置信上限13645.77573置信上限13634.36165s=20S=100Pns2103050100仓储费用7868.007811.447616.177814.467738.25缺货费用1630.001460.001250.001695.001385.00订货费用5494.005515.005508.005516.005480.00总费用14992.0014786.4414374.1715025.4614603.25s=40S=60Pns2103050100仓储费用4609.764665.214808.324720.544811.19缺货费用575.00245.00515.00665.00555.00订货费用10188.0010263.009585.0010361.009701.00总费用15372.7615018.2114728.3215584.5415067.19s=20S=100s=40S=60样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果14992样本平均个数515372.76样本平均个数514786.44样本均值14756.26415018.21样本均值15154.20414374.17样本标准差273.110622314728.32样本标准差331.812742315025.46抽样平均误差122.138783415584.54抽样平均误差148.391169514603.25置信水平0.9515067.19置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围339.1116273误差范围411.9999362置信下限14417.15237置信下限14742.20406置信上限15095.37563置信上限15566.20394s=40S=80Pns2103050100仓储费用6291.526207.296510.806289.736678.59缺货费用410.00295.00450.00555.00560.00订货费用8126.007765.007906.008163.007453.00总费用14827.5214089.2914866.8014795.7314691.59s=40S=100Pns2103050100仓储费用7716.457762.937852.567991.307932.97缺货费用470.00355.00375.00335.00705.00订货费用6622.006483.006315.006895.006177.00总费用14808.4514600.9314542.5615221.3014814.97s=40S=80s=40S=100样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果14827.52样本平均个数514808.45样本平均个数514089.29样本均值14654.18614600.93样本均值14797.64214866.8样本标准差322.40915114542.56样本标准差266.301338314795.73抽样平均误差144.185755615221.3抽样平均误差119.09357914691.59置信水平0.9514814.97置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围400.3238355误差范围330.6567844置信下限14253.86216置信下限14466.98522置信上限15054.50984置信上限15128.29878s=60S=80Pns2103050100仓储费用6834.386700.246898.496928.046858.91缺货费用290.0080.00165.00190.00100.00订货费用9616.0010052.0010120.0010047.009943.00总费用16740.3816677.2416971.4916984.0416901.91s=60S=100Pns2103050100仓储费用8538.688533.328853.228707.848882.91缺货费用190.00105.00130.00100.00100.00订货费用8229.007691.007989.007911.007993.00总费用16782.6816150.3216872.2216718.8416778.91s=60S=80s=60S=100样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果16740.38样本平均个数516782.68样本平均个数516677.24样本均值16855.01216150.32样本均值16648.5816971.49样本标准差138.886780416872.22样本标准差285.540549816984.04抽样平均误差62.1120564316718.84抽样平均误差127.69761616901.91置信水平0.9516718.84置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围172.450715误差范围354.5454208置信下限16682.56128置信下限16294.03458置信上限17027.46272置信上限17003.12542由上表可知：误差范围最小为s=60S=80，误差范围为172.置信下限最小为13250，置信上限最小为13634，是s=20S=80，.误差范围为191.总而言之，s=20S=80库存方案效果最优。模型中怎样实现等间隔检验库存，并实现采购决议建模？答：经过控制检验库存元素detailpart下面interarrival来实现等间隔检验库存，采购决议建模是经过检验库存元素下面actiononcreate来实现。模型中怎样实现缺货数量和缺货费用统计？答：缺货物品统计是经过cost（2）来统计，缺货费用经过客户需求下actiononstart：cost（2）=cost（2）+5* nparts2（element,缺货物品,0）来实现。6、Distribution元素使用方法和效果是什么？答：此元素是用来代表从现实世界搜集数据在模型中具备规律改变。在建立模型时，既能够采取自定义分布，也能够采取软件提供最适当分布。试验结果及分析答：S=40s=20S=60s=20pns=2pns=10pns=30pns=50Pns=100pns=2pns=10pns=30pns=50Pns=100仓储费用2523.112562.202587.532504.52626.813983.34117.74133.74064.574301.6缺货费用2070.002195.002145.002380.00.001825.001620.02335.002040.001605.00订货费用8636.008128.008405.008586.008167.008095.07907.07077.007928.007925.00总费用13125.112885.213985.513372.512808.813903.313644.713963.714032.513831.6s=20S=40s=20S=60样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果13125.1样本平均个数513903.3样本平均个数512885.2样本均值13235.4213644.7样本均值13875.1613985.5样本标准差473.877649813963.7样本标准差148.657620113372.5抽样平均误差211.924527614032.5抽样平均误差66.4817087612808.8置信水平0.9513831.6置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围588.3968173误差范围184.5828149置信下限12647.02318置信下限13690.57719置信上限13823.81682置信上限14059.74281s=20S=40样本均值为13235.42，误差范围为588.4，置信下限为12647，置信上限为13823.8。s=20S=60样本均值为13875.16，误差范围为184.6，置信下限为13690，置信上限为14059.7。S=80s=20S=100s=20pns=2pns=10pns=30pns=50Pns=100pns=2pns=10pns=30pns=50Pns=100仓储费用5601.15709.25748.55841.25681.478687811.47616.27814.57738.3缺货费用1461.001515.01595.001530.001515.0016301460.001250.001695.001385.00订货费用8066.007878.07755.008072.007779.0077467809.007788.007812.007704.00总费用14885.014830.215098.515222.214975.41724417080.416654.217321.516827.3s=20S=80s=20S=100样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果14885样本平均个数517244样本平均个数514830.2样本均值15002.2617080.4样本均值17025.4815098.5样本标准差159.461399716654.2样本标准差280.855473515222.2抽样平均误差71.3133059117321.5抽样平均误差125.602386114975.4置信水平0.9516827.3置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围197.9974791误差范围348.7281302置信下限14804.26252置信下限16676.75187置信上限15200.25748置信上限17374.20813s=20S=80样本均值为15002.26，误差范围为198.0，置信下限为14804.3，置信上限为15200.3。s=20S=100样本均值为17025.48，误差范围为348.7，置信下限为16676.8，置信上限为17374.2。S=60s=40S=80s=40pns=2pns=10pns=30pns=50Pns=100pns=2pns=10pns=30pns=50Pns=100仓储费用4609.84665.24808.34720.54811.26291.56207.36510.86289.76679缺货费用575.00245.00515.00665.00555.00410.00295.00450.00555.0560.00订货费用9452.009313.009099.009607.09083.009090.08735.08794.009201.08527.0总费用14636.814122.214246.314870.514449.215791.515067.315754.815773.715766s=40S=60s=40S=80样本数据计算指标计算结果样本数据计算指标计算结果14636.8样本平均个数515791.5样本平均个数514122.2样本均值1446515067.3样本均值15630.6614246.3样本标准差299.806879515754.8样本标准差315.211076914870.5抽样平均误差134.077712515773.7抽样平均误差140.96667914449.2置信水平0.9515766置信水平0.95自由度4自由度4t值2.t值2.误差范围372.2594087误差范围391.386246置信下限14092.74059置信下限15239.27375置信上限14837.25941置信上限16022.04625s=40S=60样本均值为14465，误差范围为372.3，置信下限为14092.8，置信上限为14837.3。s=40S=80样本均值为15630.7，误差范围为391.4，置信下限为15239.3，置信上限为16022.0。S=100s=40S=80s=60pns=2pns=10pns=30pns=50Pns=100pns=2pns=10pns=30pns=50Pns=100仓储费用7716.577637852.67991.37933.06834.46700.26898.56928.06858.9缺货费用470.00355.00375.00335.00705.00290.0080.00165.00190.00100.00订货费用8582.008529.083899037.0833995569408.009612.09757.009445.0总费用16768.51664716616.617363.31697716680.416087.216403.516696.0