持续发展的轨道交通业

持续发展的轨道交通业—设备监理服务的机遇与挑战RailTransitIndustryGrowinginaSustainableWay-OpportunitiesandChallengesofPlantengineeringconsultingService中国铁道科学研究院SunNingChinaAcademyofRailwaySciences持续发展的轨道交通业—设备监理服务的机遇与挑战RailTransitIndustryGrowinginaSustainableWay-OpportunitiesandChallengesofPlantEngineeringConsultingService轨道交通发展现状及规划

PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势

DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalEquipmentTechnology3.轨道交通机电设备监理服务的机遇与挑战

OpportunitiesandChallengesofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantEngineeringConsultingService

轨道交通发展现状及规划

PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment我国铁路发展长期制约我国社会经济发展China’srailwaydevelopmenthaslongrestrictedoursocialandeconomicgrowth.轨道交通发展现状及规划

PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment铁路“十一五”规划The11thFive-YearPlanofrailways

依据我国中长期铁路网规划，“四纵四横”客运专线长度达到12000kmAccordingtoChina’slongandmedium-termplanforrailwaynetwork,dedicatedFourVerticalandFourHorizontalpassengerrailwaysareaslongas12,000km.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment铁路投资规模估计

Estimatedscaleofrailwayinvestment按照规划，2009年，我国还将批准新建铁路里程1万公里左右、投资规模1万亿元；2010年，将再批准新建铁路里程1万公里、投资规模1万亿元。Accordingtotheplan,in2009,Chinawillapproveconstructionofanadditional10,000kmrailwaymileageorso,involvinginvestmentscaleof1TrillionRMB;in2010,itwillfurtherapprove10,000kmrailwaymileage,involvinginvestmentscaleof1TrillionRMB.2009年铁道部计划报批项目投资规模突破1万亿元。当年要花出去的钱约7000亿元，其中基本建设投资计划安排6000亿元，还有其他的一些机器设备、固定资产投资将近1000亿元。另外，2009年和2010年两年计划安排机车车辆购置投资3000亿元左右。In2009,MinistryofRailwaysplanstoreportforapprovalofprojectsinvolving1TrillionRMBinvestment.Intheyear,about700BillionRMBisplannedtobespent,amongwhich600BillionRMBwillbearrangedforinvestmentininfrastructures,andnearly100BillionRMBforinvestmentinmachineryequipmentandfixedassets.Moreover,in2009and2010,theMinistryplanstoarrangeapproximately300BillionRMBtopurchaselocomotives.

调整后的《中长期铁路网规划》项目全部实施后，到2020年铁路建设投资总规模将突破5万亿，营业里程将超过12万公里AftertheprojectsinLongandMedium-termRailwayNetworkPlanarecompletelyfulfilled,by2020totalscaleofrailwayconstructioninvestmentwillsurpass5TrillionRMB,andoperatingmileagewillovertake120,000kilometers.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment我国城市轨道交通建设现狀PresentsituationonconstructionofurbanrailtransitinChina特大城市（北京、上海、广州）正在形成轨道交通网络；Railtransitnetworkisbeingformedinlargecities(Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou)

天津、深圳、南京、武汉、重庆已建成并运营第一、二条地铁线路，正在建设第二或多条线路；InTianjin,Shenzhen,Nanjing,WuhanandChongqing,thefirstorsecondmetrolinehasbeencompletedandoperated,thesecondormorelineisunderconstruction

近两年国家又先后又批准了成都、杭州、哈尔滨、沈阳、西安、长沙、石家庄、苏州、宁波、青岛、郑州、大连、长春、无锡等十五个城市开展城市轨道交通建设；Inthepasttwoyears,theStatehasapprovedconstructionofurbanrailtransitin15cities,includingChengdu,Hangzhou,Harbin,Shenyang,Xi’an,Changsha,Shijiazhuang,Suzhou,Ningbo,Qingdao,Zhengzhou,Dalian,ChangchunandWuxi.

随着城市化的发展，珠江三角洲、长江三角洲、环渤海地区等经济区域正在启动区域性城际轨道交通网络的建设。Withever-growingurbanization,sucheconomiczonesasPearlRiverDelta,YangtzeDeltaandtheareassurroundingBohaiSeaarekickingofftheconstructionofregionalintercityrailtransitnetwork.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment目前我国十座城市，30条线路的运营里程（2008年底）Presentoperationmileageof30linesin10citiesofChina(bytheendof2008)1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment目前我国十座城市，30条线路的运营里程（2008年底）Presentoperationmileageof30linesin10citiesofChina(bytheendof2008)1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment至2008底全国共有14个城市，46条地铁线路在建，线路总长1212kmBytheendof2008,46metrolinesin14citiesnationwidewereunderconstruction,1,212kmlongintotal.十五个城市轨道交通近期建设规划表Near-termconstructionplanningscheduleforrailtransitin15citiesNo.CityPlannedyearsNumberoflinesLength(km)Totalinvestment(100millionRMB)1Beijing2004-201514419.916362Shanghai2005-20121038914393Guangzhou2005-20107127.66487.014Shenzhen2003-20105120.7364.35Nanjing2004-2015397.6368.36Hangzhou2004-2010282.2355.77Chongqing2004-20123822428Wuhan2004-2010359.74237.229Chengdu2004-2013254.18197.1810Tianjin2003-2010251.1209.611Xi’an2006-2015250.3179.512Suzhou2003-2010247.416513Harbin2004-2013245.5316314Shenyang2004-2010240.85171.815Changchun2003-2010237.538.98Total611705.666234.591.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment城轨新线建设Constructionofnewurbanrailtransitlines-目前已经开工建设1300多公里线路，建成运营800多公里线路，按照规划还有约1700公里线路在今后10年左右时间陆续建设完成。

Atpresent,constructionofmorethan1,300kmlineshasbeencommenced,lineswithabove800kmoperatingmileagehavebeencompletedandputintooperation.Accordingtotheplanning,anadditional1,700kmlineswillbecompletedinsuccessioninthe10futureyears.-在2010年左右，我国将有20个城市，2020年，我国将有30个左右的城市有发展城市轨道交通的可能。Itispossibletodevelopurbanrailtransitin20citiesby2010,and30citiesby2020inChina.-按照目前每年开工建设150～200公里线路的发展速度，到2020年，我国建设城市轨道交通线路有可能达到2500～3000公里的规模，约需静态总投资10000～13000亿元。Accordingtothespeedofcommencingconstructionof150~200kmlinesannually,itisexpectedthatby2020urbanrailtransitlinesinChinacouldreachascaleof2500-3000km,whichapproximatelyinvolvesstaticinvestmentof1-1.3TrillionRMB.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment城轨新线建设Newurbanrailtransitlines随着我国城轨车辆系统的国产化率不断提高，车辆在设备投资中的比重正在不断下降，目前已经不到40%。Withever-increasingimportsubstitutionrateofurbanrailvehiclesysteminChina,theproportionofvehiclesinplantinvestmentiscontinuallydropping,whichislessthan40%now.

根据我国现有城轨项目统计，设备投资约占总投资的36%。以地下为主的线路，设备投资约占33%左右，以地面和高架为主的线路，设备投资约占40%。EstimatedaccordingtoexistingurbantransitprojectsinChina,plantinvestmentaccountsforabout36%oftotalinvestment.Forlinesmainlyunderground,plantinvestmenttakesupabout33%;forlinesmainlygroundandoverhead,plantinvestmentrepresentsabout40%.1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment城轨老线的更新改造（与设备使用寿命相关）Upgradingandrenovationofoldurbanrailtransitlines(relatedtotheservicelifeofplants)系统综合升级改造—北京地铁1、2号线Comprehensiveupgradingandrenovationofsystem–BeijingMetroLine1&2个别系统更新设备—上海、广州地铁更新车辆Plantsareupdatedinsomesystems–vehiclesareupgradedinShanghaiandGuangzhouMetro新增系统设备—上海新增屏蔽/安全门、北京地铁新增AFC系统、许多城市的AFC系统升级。Systemplantsareadded–shielding/safetydoorareaddedinShanghai,AFCsystemisaddedinBeijingMetro,alotofothercitiesupgradeAFCsystem.按每条线平均年设备更新改造费用1.5亿元计，全国老线的更新改造年均45亿元左右，并将逐年大幅递增。Calculatedaccordingto150MillionRMBupgradingandrenovationexpensefortheplantsofeachlineannually,approximately4.5BillionRMBisneededannuallyonaverageforupgradingandrenovationoftheoldlinesnationwide,whichwillbeincreasedinalargemarginyearbyyear.

1.轨道交通发展现状及规划PresentSituationandPlanningofRailTransitDevelopment轨道交通车辆与机电设备投资估计Estimatedinvestmentinrailtransitvehiclesandmechanical-electricalplants综上分析，2009-2015年间，轨道交通（铁路与城市轨道交通）车辆与机电设备投资保守估计：Tosumup,during2009-2015,conservativeinvestmentinrailtransit(railwayandurbanrailtransit)vehiclesandmechanical-electricalplantsisestimatedat:

城市轨道交通：550亿元/年；

Urbanrailtransit:55BillionRMB/year

铁路（高速与客运专线）2600亿元/年。

Railway(high-speedandpassengertransportlines):260BillionRMB/year其中：城市轨道交通会逐年增长，铁路则趋于稳定或下降。Where,urbanrailtransitwillriseyearbyyear,whilerailwaywilltendtostabilizeordrop2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology现代轨道交通产业发展趋势Developmenttrendofmodernrailtransitindustry投资体系多元化Diversifiedinvestmentsystem

项目管理社会化Socializedprojectmanagement

系统集成技术高Highsystemintegrationtechnology

安全环保意识强Strongawarenessofsafetyandenvironmentprotection

土建机电一体化Integratedcivilconstructionandmechanical-electricalsystem

建设速度超负荷Overloadedconstructionspeed

运营服务人性化Humanizedoperationservice2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology轨道交通设备系统发展特点Developmentfeaturesofrailtransitplantsandsystems系统集成成为主流；Systemintegrationbecomesthemainstream.国产化逐步实现；Importsubstitutionisgraduallyrealized.设备技术含量与运营的技术要求越来越高；Moreandmoreisdemandedonthetechnicalcontentsofplantsandthetechnicalrequirementsofoperation.高度重视全寿命周期成本的评估；Particularemphasisisplacedontheestimationofthecostofwhole-lifecycle.竞争愈加激烈、市场规模愈加扩大、规范性逐步加强：优胜劣汰加速Competitionbecomesfiercer,marketscaleisexpandedbigger,standardizationisstrengthenedstepbystep;survivalofthebestisaccelerated.设备咨询监理的作用越来越重要（城市轨道交通市场化程度高）Theroleofplantconsultingsupervisionbecomesmoreandmoreimportant(market-orientedextentofurbanrailtransitishigh)咨询监理业务领域逐步覆盖建设全过程Consultingsupervisionbusinessfieldgraduallycoverswholeprocessofconstruction;咨询业务已经深入城轨各个技术领域(检验、试验、认证、联调、维护、培训等)。Consultingbusinesshaspenetratedintoalltechnicalfieldsofurbanrailtransit(inspection,test,accreditation,jointdebugging,maintenance,training,etc.);业主和设备承包商日益重视咨询监理服务的作用Theemployersandplantcontractorsattachmoreimportancetotheroleofconsultingsupervisionservice.2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology国产化存在的问题Problemsinimportsubstitution尚未完全掌握机电设备的关键核心技术Keyandcoretechnologiesinmechanical-electricalplantshavenotyetbeenfullymastered;研发工作参差不齐、应用工作进度缓慢R&Dworkisuneven,andapplicationworkprogressesslowly;城轨交通系统市场的准入认证制度尚未建立Theaccessandaccreditationsystemforurbanrailtransitsystemmarkethasnotbeenconstituted;产品技术标准制修订工作滞后于轨道交通快速发展Formulationandrevisionofproducttechnologystandardslagbehindspeedydevelopmentofrailtransmit.

2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalEquipmentTechnology轨道交通设备系统涵盖了车辆、通信信号、牵引供电、运营调度、客运服务和线路工程六大系统，其主要的技术发展趋势为：Railtransitplantsystemcoverssixsystems:vehicle,communicationsignal,tractionpowersupply,operationdispatch,passengertransportserviceandlineengineering.Itsmaintechnicaldevelopmenttrendfeatures:

以大系统理论为基础，建立轨道交通机电设备系统集成创新方法体系；Basedonlargesystemtheory,establishinnovativeapproachsystemforrailtransitmechanical-electricalplantsystem;提高轨道交通机电设备系统的国产化率；Increasetheimportsubstitutionrateofrailtransitmechanical-electricalplantsystem;从全局优化的观点出发，保证机电设备所关注的RAMS水平；Startingfromoverallsituationoptimization,ensureRAMSlevelconcernedbymechanical-electricalplants;从网、线、站的三个层面，形成机电设备系统集成的原则、技术指标和可持续改进的途径；Fromthreelevels–network,lineandstation,formtheprinciple,technicalindicatorsandcontinuouslyimprovedchannelsformechanical-electricalplantsystemintegration;形成并实践轨道交通机电设备系统集成的项目管理模式；Formandpracticetheprojectmanagementmodeofmechanical-electricalplantsystemintegration;从建设为运营服务的角度，量化分析各系统的全寿命周期成本，为运营维修养护的效益最大化创造条件；Fromtheperspectiveofconstructionservingoperation,quantifyandanalyzewhole-lifecyclecostofeachsystem,soastocreateconditionsformaximizedbenefitsofoperation,repairandmaintenance;建立并实践轨道交通机电设备系统的接口管理、风险分析与安全评估、系统联调联试的理论和方法。Establishandpracticethetheoryandapproachesforinterfacemanagement,riskanalysisandsafetyevaluationandjointdebuggingandcommissioningofsystemsofrailtransitmechanical-electricalplantsystem.2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology轨道交通机电系统技术集成创新体系Innovationsystemformechanical-electricalsystemmanagementintegrationofrailtransit轨道交通机电系统管理集成创新体系Innovationsystemformechanical-electricalsystemmanagementintegrationofrailtransit2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology轨道交通机电系统RAM管理RAMmanagementformechanical-electricalsystemofrailtransit

2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology轨道交通安全评估体系与应用实践Safetyevaluationsystemandapplicationpracticesofrailtransit生命周期与安全评估Lifecycleandsafetyevaluation

2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology建设项目各阶段解决风险问题时的性价比Cost-effectivenessratioofconstructionprojectstoresolveriskproblemineachphase2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology轨道交通安全评估体系与应用实践Safetyevaluationsystemandapplicationpracticesofrailtransit

轨道交通系统联调技术Jointdebuggingtechnologyinrailtransitsystem2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology

系统联调联试是对系统集成的设计、施工的优劣的检验和修正，采用实车进行线下基础、车辆、通信信号、牵引供电、运营调度、客运服务等各系统的性能或功能和系统间配合的动态调试。Jointdebuggingandcommissioningofsystemsistoinspectandrevisethequalityofdesignandconstructionofsystemintegration,andtoconductdynamicadjustmentofperformanceorfunctionsandinter-systemcoordinationofallsystems,includingfoundationbelowlines,vehicles,communicationsignal,tractionpowersupply,operationdispatchandpassengertransportservice.通过系统联调联试工作，测试、评价轨道交通各系统设计的安全性、可靠性、平稳性等一系列技术性能。Throughjointdebuggingandcommissioningofsystems,arangeoftechnicalperformances,likesafety,reliabilityandstabilityofthedesignofallrailtransitsystems,aretestedandevaluated.

在“V”生命周期模型中的试验验证

ExperimentalverificationinVlifecyclemodel2.轨道交通机电设备技术发展趋势DevelopmentTrendofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantTechnology轨道交通系统联调技术Jointdebuggingtechnologyinrailtransitsystem3.轨道交通机电设备监理服务的机遇与挑战OpportunitiesandChallengesofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantEngineeringConsultingService轨道交通设备发展对设备咨询监理行业服务规模预计Estimationofrailtransitplantgrowthcontributingtotheservicescaleofplantengineeringconsultingindustry

轨道交通建设为工程咨询监理行业提供发展机遇。Railtransitconstructionprovidesopportunitiesfordevelopmentofconsultingengineeringindustry.铁路机电设备咨询监理年需求（预计）：10亿元/年

Annualdemandonrailwaymechanical-electricalplantengineeringconsulting:1BillionRMB/year（不含车辆投资部分，按年设备投资额约1000亿的1%计）

(excludinginvestmentinvehicles,calculatedaccordingto1%ofaboutannualinvestmentonplantsat100BillionRMB

城市轨道交通设备咨询监理需求（预计）：11亿元/年（按年投资额550亿的2%计）Demandonurbanrailtransitplantengineeringconsulting(anticipated):1.1BillionRMB/year

合计：21亿元/年

Total:2.1BillionRMB/year随着社会化服务的加强和完善，总体上，需求将逐年稳步增长Withsocializedservicesbeingstrengthenedandimproved,onthewhole,thedemandwillbesteadilyincreasedyearbyyear.从阶段服务转向全过程服务Shiftfromstageservicetowhole-processservice从专业服务转为系统服务Shiftfromprofessionalservicetosystemservice从工程拓展为工程机电并重Turnfromengineeringextensiontoemphasisonengineeringandmechanical-electricalplants从技术服务转向技术和管理并重Transformfromtechnicalservicetoemphasisontechnologyandmanagement从为项目服务转向项目服务和社会责任并重Shiftfromservingprojectstoemphasisonprojectserviceandsocialresponsibility人才（专业与管理协调）要求更高Higherrequirementsareimposedontalentedpeoples(coordinationbetweenprofessionandmanagement)3.轨道交通机电设备监理服务的机遇与挑战OpportunitiesandChallengesofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantEngineeringConsultingService轨道交通设备发展对设备咨询监理行业服务的新要求

Newrequirementsonplantengineeringconsultingindustryservicesbyrailtransitplantdevelopment发挥设备咨询监理专业作用，建设好现代轨道交通Givetoplaytheroleofplantengineeringconsultingprofession,wellbuildmodernrailtransit社会责任层面上Onthelevelofsocialresponsibility建立好行业服务氛围（评价体系、合作、竞争）Createproperserviceatmosphereoftheindustry(evaluationsystem,cooperation,competition)形成统一的各层面的标准体系（工程、机电、验收、服务、定额、合同等）Formauniformstandardsystemforeachlevel(engineer,machineryandelectricity,acceptancecheck,service,quota,contract,etc.)为各相干方服务（政府、企业、机构）Serveallpartiesconcerned(government,enterprise,institution)形成检验、试验、评估的能力和相应法规Constitutethecapacityoninspection,testandevaluationandcorrespondinglawsandregulations强化保险和仲裁的现代社会化危机管理体系Intensifymodernsocializedcrisismanagementsystemincludinginsuranceandarbitration重视环境和安全评估的技术体系建立和实施Placeparticularemphasisonestablishmentandimplementationoftechnicalsystemonenvironmentandsafetyevaluation

3.轨道交通机电设备监理服务的机遇与挑战OpportunitiesandChallengesofRailTransitMechanical-ElectricalPlantEngineeringConsultingService项目管理层面Onthelevelofprojectmanagement参谋建立好建设管理模式Givegoodadvicestoestablishsoundmanagementmode承担协调管理的责任，形成建设协调机制Undertakethedutiesofcoordinationandmanagement,formconstructioncoordinationmechanism信息化管理与预案管理Information-basedmanagementandpreplanmanagement环境与安全管理Environmentandsafetymanagement联调管理与运营管理架构Jointdebuggingmanagementandoperationmanagementframework管理知识服务整合模式创新Innovationinmanagement,knowledgeands