2023年未来就业报告++Future+of+Jobs+Report+2023

FutureofJobsReport

2023

INSIGHTREPORT

MAY2023

FutureofJobsReport20232

May2023

FutureofJobsReport2023

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ISBN-13:978-2-940631-96-4

/reports/the-future-of-

jobs-report-2023/

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Contents

Preface4

Keyfindings5

1Introduction:thegloballabourmarketlandscapein20238

2Driversoflabourmarkettransformation20

2.1Expectedimpactofmacrotrendsonindustrytransformation20

andemployment

2.2Expectedimpactoftechnologyadoptiononindustry24

transformationandemployment

3Jobsoutlook28

4Skillsoutlook37

4.1Expecteddisruptionstoskills37

4.2Reskillingandupskillingprioritiesinthenext5years42

5Workforcestrategies49

5.1Barrierstotransformationandworkforcestrategies49

5.2Talentavailabilityandretention53

5.3Talentdevelopment57

Conclusion61

AppendixA:Analysismethodology62

AppendixB:Sectorallensonmacrotrendsandtechnology75

AppendixC:Sectorallensonskills79

Userguide82

EconomyProfiles93

IndustryProfiles183

RegionProfiles237

SkillProfiles256

Contributors287

Endnotes294

Disclaimer

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Preface

SaadiaZahidiManagingDirector,WorldEconomicForum

Sinceitsfirsteditionin2016,theWorldEconomicForum’sbi-annualFutureofJobsReporthastrackedthelabour-marketimpactoftheFourthIndustrialRevolution,identifyingthepotentialscaleofoccupationaldisruptionandgrowthalongsidestrategiesforempoweringjobtransitionsfromdecliningtoemergingroles.

In2023,labour-markettransformationsdrivenbytechnologicalbreakthroughs,suchasthecomingofageofgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI),arebeingcompoundedbyeconomicandgeopoliticaldisruptionsandgrowingsocialandenvironmentalpressures.ThisfourtheditionoftheFutureofJobsReportthereforebroadensitsscopebeyondtechnologicalchangetoalsoconsiderandaddressthelabour-marketimpactofamultitudeofconcurrenttrends,includingthegreenandenergytransitions,macroeconomicfactors,andgeo-economicandsupply-chainshifts.

Similartopreviouseditions,thecoreofthe2023FutureofJobsReportisbasedonauniquesurvey-baseddatasetcoveringtheexpectationsofawidecross-sectionoftheworld’slargestemployersrelatedtojobtrendsanddirectionsforthe2023—2027period.Thisyear’sreportbringstogethertheperspectivesof803companies–collectivelyemployingmorethan11.3millionworkers–across

27industryclustersand45economiesfromallworldregions.Thisreportwouldnotbepossiblewithouttheiropennesstocontributingtheirviewsandinsights,andwesincerelythankthemall.Wegreatlyappreciate,too,thesupportofournetworkofPartnerInstitutes,whichhaveenhancedthereport’sgeographicalcoverage,andourongoingdatacollaborationswithCoursera,IndeedandLinkedIn,whichcomplementedthesurveyfindingswitharangeofuniqueandinnovativedata-driveninsights.Ourthanksalsototheprojectteam:TillLeopold,ElselotHasselaar,MarkRayner,SamGrayling,RickyLiandAttilioDiBattista,aswellasthewiderteamattheCentrefortheNewEconomyandSocietyfortheirinput.

Afterwidespreadinstabilityinthelastthreeyearsacrosstheworldofwork,wehopetheoutlookprovidedinthisreportwillcontributetoanambitiousmultistakeholderagendatobetterprepareworkers,businesses,governments,educatorsandcivilsocietyforthedisruptionsandopportunitiestocome,andempowerthemtonavigatethesesocial,environmentalandtechnologicaltransitions.Thetimeisripeforbusinessleadersandpolicy-makerstodecisivelyshapethesetransformationsandensurethatfutureinvestmentstranslateintobetterjobsandopportunitiesforall.

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Keyfindings

Economic,healthandgeopoliticaltrendshavecreateddivergentoutcomesforlabourmarketsgloballyin2023.Whiletightlabourmarketsareprevalentinhigh-incomecountries,low-andlower-middle-incomecountriescontinuetoseehigherunemploymentthanbeforetheCOVID-19pandemic.Onanindividuallevel,labour-marketoutcomesarealsodiverging,asworkerswithonlybasiceducationandwomenfaceloweremploymentlevels.Atthesametime,realwagesaredecliningasaresultofanongoingcost-of-livingcrisis,andchangingworkerexpectationsandconcernsaboutthequalityofworkarebecomingmoreprominentissuesglobally.

ThefourtheditionoftheSurveyhasthewidestcoveragethusfarbytopic,geographyandsector.TheFutureofJobsSurveybringstogethertheperspectiveof803companies–collectivelyemployingmorethan11.3millionworkers–across27industryclustersand45economiesfromallworldregions.TheSurveycoversquestionsofmacrotrendsandtechnologytrends,theirimpactonjobs,theirimpactonskills,andtheworkforcetransformationstrategiesbusinessesplantouse,acrossthe2023-2027timeframe.

Technologyadoptionwillremainakeydriverofbusinesstransformationinthenextfiveyears.Over85%oforganizationssurveyedidentifyincreasedadoptionofnewandfrontiertechnologiesandbroadeningdigitalaccessasthetrendsmostlikelytodrivetransformationintheirorganization.BroaderapplicationofEnvironmental,SocialandGovernance(ESG)standardswithintheirorganizationswillalsohaveasignificantimpact.Thenextmost-impactfultrendsaremacroeconomic:therisingcostoflivingandsloweconomicgrowth.Theimpactofinvestmentstodrivethegreentransitionwasjudgedtobethesixth-mostimpactfulmacrotrend,followedbysupplyshortagesandconsumerexpectationsaroundsocialandenvironmentalissues.Thoughstillexpectedtodrivethetransformationofalmosthalfofcompaniesinthenextfiveyears,theongoingimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemic,increasedgeopoliticaldivisionsanddemographicdividendsindevelopingandemergingeconomieswererankedlowerasdriversofbusinessevolutionbyrespondents.

Thelargestjobcreationanddestructioneffectscomefromenvironmental,technologyandeconomictrends.Amongthemacrotrendslisted,businessespredictthestrongestnetjob-creationeffecttobedrivenbyinvestmentsthatfacilitatethegreentransitionofbusinesses,thebroaderapplicationofESGstandardsandsupplychainsbecomingmorelocalized,albeitwithjobgrowthoffsetbypartialjobdisplacementineachcase.Climatechangeadaptationandthedemographicdividendindevelopingandemergingeconomiesalsoratehighasnetjobcreators.Technologicaladvancementthroughincreasedadoptionofnewandfrontiertechnologiesandincreaseddigitalaccessareexpectedtodrivejobgrowthinmorethanhalfofsurveyedcompanies,offsetbyexpectedjobdisplacementinone-fifthofcompanies.Thenetjobcreationeffectplacesthesetwotrendsin6thand8thplacerespectively.Thethreekeydriversofexpectednetjobdestructionareslowereconomicgrowth,supplyshortagesandtherisingcostofinputs,andtherisingcostoflivingforconsumers.EmployersalsorecognizethatincreasedgeopoliticaldivisionsandtheongoingimpactoftheCOVID-19pandemicwilldrivelabour-marketdisruption–withanevensplitbetweenemployerswhoexpectthesetrendstohaveapositiveimpactandemployerswhoexpectthemtohaveanegativeimpactonjobs.

Withintechnologyadoption,bigdata,cloudcomputingandAIfeaturehighlyonlikelihoodofadoption.Morethan75%ofcompaniesarelookingtoadoptthesetechnologiesinthenextfiveyears.Thedataalsoshowstheimpactofthedigitalizationofcommerceandtrade.Digitalplatformsandappsarethetechnologiesmostlikelytobeadoptedbytheorganizationssurveyed,with86%ofcompaniesexpectingtoincorporatethemintotheiroperationsinthenextfiveyears.E-commerceanddigitaltradeareexpectedtobeadoptedby75%ofbusinesses.Thesecond-rankedtechnologyencompasseseducationandworkforcetechnologies,with81%ofcompanieslookingtoadoptthesetechnologiesby2027.Theadoptionofrobots,powerstoragetechnologyanddistributedledgertechnologiesrankloweronthelist.

Theimpactofmosttechnologiesonjobsisexpectedtobeanetpositiveoverthenextfiveyears.Bigdataanalytics,climatechange

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andenvironmentalmanagementtechnologies,andencryptionandcybersecurityareexpectedtobethebiggestdriversofjobgrowth.Agriculturetechnologies,digitalplatformsandapps,e-commerceanddigitaltrade,andAIareallexpectedtoresultinsignificantlabour-marketdisruption,withsubstantialproportionsofcompaniesforecastingjobdisplacementintheirorganizations,offsetbyjobgrowthelsewheretoresultinanetpositive.Allbuttwotechnologiesareexpectedtobenetjobcreatorsinthenextfiveyears:humanoidrobotsandnon-humanoidrobots.

Employersanticipateastructurallabourmarketchurnof23%ofjobsinthenextfiveyears.Thiscanbeinterpretedasanaggregatemeasureofdisruption,constitutingamixtureofemergingjobsaddedanddecliningjobseliminated.Respondentstothisyear’sFutureofJobsSurveyexpectahigher-than-averagechurnintheSupplyChainandTransportationandMedia,EntertainmentandSportsindustries,andlower-than-averagechurninManufacturingaswellasRetailandWholesaleofConsumerGoods.Ofthe673millionjobsreflectedinthedatasetinthisreport,respondentsexpectstructuraljobgrowthof69millionjobsandadeclineof83millionjobs.Thiscorrespondstoanetdecreaseof14millionjobs,or2%ofcurrentemployment.

Thehuman-machinefrontierhasshifted,withbusinessesintroducingautomationintotheiroperationsataslowerpacethanpreviouslyanticipated.Organizationstodayestimatethat34%ofallbusiness-relatedtasksareperformedbymachines,withtheremaining66%performedbyhumans.Thisrepresentsanegligible1%increaseinthelevelofautomationthatwasestimatedbyrespondentstothe2020editionoftheFutureofJobsSurvey.Thispaceofautomationcontradictsexpectationsfrom2020surveyrespondents

thatalmosthalf(47%)ofbusinesstaskswouldbeautomatedinthefollowingfiveyears.Today,respondentshavereviseddowntheirexpectationsforfutureautomationtopredictthat42%ofbusinesstaskswillbeautomatedby2027.Taskautomationin2027isexpectedtovaryfrom35%ofreasoninganddecision-makingto65%ofinformationanddataprocessing.

Butwhileexpectationsofthedisplacementofphysicalandmanualworkbymachineshasdecreased,reasoning,communicatingandcoordinating–alltraitswithacomparativeadvantageforhumans–areexpectedtobemoreautomatableinthefuture.Artificialintelligence,akeydriverofpotentialalgorithmicdisplacement,isexpectedtobeadoptedbynearly75%ofsurveyedcompaniesandisexpectedtoleadtohighchurn–with50%oforganizationsexpectingittocreatejobgrowthand25%expectingittocreatejoblosses.

Thecombinationofmacrotrendsandtechnologyadoptionwilldrivespecificareasofjobgrowthanddecline:

–Thefastest-growingrolesrelativeto

theirsizetodayaredrivenbytechnology,digitalizationandsustainability.Themajorityofthefastestgrowingrolesaretechnology-relatedroles.AIandMachineLearningSpecialiststopthelistoffast-growingjobs,followedbySustainabilitySpecialists,BusinessIntelligenceAnalystsandInformationSecurityAnalysts.RenewableEnergyEngineers,andSolarEnergyInstallationandSystemEngineersarerelativelyfast-growingroles,aseconomiesshifttowardsrenewableenergy.

–Thefastest-decliningrolesrelativetotheirsizetodayaredrivenbytechnologyanddigitalization.Themajorityoffastestdecliningrolesareclericalorsecretarialroles,withBankTellersandRelatedClerks,PostalServiceClerks,CashiersandTicketClerks,andDataEntryClerksexpectedtodeclinefastest.

–Large-scalejobgrowthisexpectedineducation,agricultureanddigitalcommerceandtrade.JobsintheEducationindustryareexpectedtogrowbyabout10%,leadingto3millionadditionaljobsforVocationalEducationTeachersandUniversityandHighereducationTeachers.Jobsforagriculturalprofessionals,especiallyAgriculturalEquipmentOperators,areexpectedtoseeanincreaseofaround30%,leadingtoanadditional3millionjobs.Growthisforecastinapproximately4milliondigitally-enabledroles,suchasE-CommerceSpecialists,DigitalTransformationSpecialists,andDigitalMarketingandStrategySpecialists.

–Thelargestlossesareexpectedin

administrativerolesandintraditionalsecurity,factoryandcommerceroles.Surveyedorganizationspredict26millionfewerjobsby2027inRecord-KeepingandAdministrativeroles,includingCashiersandTicketClerks;DataEntry,Accounting,BookkeepingandPayrollClerks;andAdministrativeandExecutiveSecretaries,drivenmainlybydigitalizationandautomation.

–Analyticalthinkingandcreativethinkingremainthemostimportantskillsforworkersin2023.Analyticalthinkingisconsideredacoreskillbymorecompaniesthananyotherskillandconstitutes,onaverage,9%ofthecoreskillsreportedbycompanies.Creativethinking,anothercognitiveskill,rankssecond,aheadofthreeself-efficacyskills–resilience,flexibilityandagility;motivationandself-awareness;andcuriosityandlifelonglearning–inrecognitionoftheimportanceofworkersabilitytoadapttodisruptedworkplaces.Dependabilityandattentiontodetail,rankssixth,behindtechnologicalliteracy.Thecoreskillstop10iscompletedbytwoattitudesrelatingtoworkingwithothers–empathyandactivelisteningandleadershipandsocialinfluence–aswellasqualitycontrol.

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Employersestimatethat44%ofworkers’skillswillbedisruptedinthenextfiveyears.Cognitiveskillsarereportedtobegrowinginimportancemostquickly,reflectingtheincreasingimportanceofcomplexproblem-solvingintheworkplace.Surveyedbusinessesreportcreativethinkingtobegrowinginimportanceslightlymorerapidlythananalyticalthinking.Technologyliteracyisthethird-fastestgrowingcoreskill.Self-efficacyskillsrankaboveworkingwithothers,intherateofincreaseinimportanceofskillsreportedbybusinesses.Thesocio-emotionalattitudeswhichbusinessesconsidertobegrowinginimportancemostquicklyarecuriosityandlifelonglearning;resilience,flexibilityandagility;andmotivationandself-awareness.Systemsthinking,AIandbigdata,talentmanagement,andserviceorientationandcustomerservicecompletethetop10growingskills.Whilerespondentsjudgednoskillstobeinnetdecline,sizableminoritiesofcompaniesjudgereading,writingandmathematics;globalcitizenship;sensory-processingabilities;andmanualdexterity,enduranceandprecisiontobeofdecliningimportancefortheirworkers.

Sixin10workerswillrequiretrainingbefore2027,butonlyhalfofworkersareseentohaveaccesstoadequatetrainingopportunitiestoday.Thehighestpriorityforskillstrainingfrom2023-2027isanalyticalthinking,whichissettoaccountfor10%oftraininginitiatives,onaverage.Thesecondpriorityforworkforcedevelopmentistopromotecreativethinking,whichwillbethesubjectof8%ofupskillinginitiatives.TrainingworkerstoutilizeAIandbigdataranksthirdamongcompanyskills-trainingprioritiesinthenextfiveyearsandwillbeprioritizedby42%ofsurveyedcompanies.Employersalsoplantofocusondevelopingworker’sskillsinleadershipandsocialinfluence(40%ofcompanies);resilience,flexibilityandagility(32%);andcuriosityandlifelonglearning(30%).Two-thirdsofcompaniesexpecttoseeareturnoninvestmentonskillstrainingwithinayearoftheinvestment,whetherintheformofenhancedcross-rolemobility,increasedworkersatisfactionorenhancedworkerproductivity.

Theskillsthatcompaniesreporttobeincreasinginimportancethefastestarenotalwaysreflectedincorporateupskillingstrategies.Beyondthetop-rankedcognitiveskillsaretwoskillswhichcompaniesprioritizemuchmorehighlythanwouldappearaccordingtotheircurrentimportancetotheirworkforce:AIandbigdataaswellasleadershipandsocialinfluence.CompaniesrankAIandbigdata12placeshigherintheirskillsstrategiesthanintheirevaluationofcoreskills,andreportthattheywillinvestanestimated9%oftheirreskillingeffortsinit–agreaterproportionthanthemorehighly-rankedcreativethinking,indicatingthat

thoughAIandbigdataispartoffewerstrategies,ittendstobeamoreimportantelementwhenitisincluded.Leadershipandsocialinfluenceranksfiveplaceshigherthansuggestedbyitscurrentimportanceandisthehighestrankedattitude.Otherskillswhicharestrategicallyemphasizedbybusinessaredesignanduserexperience(nineplaceshigher),environmentalstewardship(10placeshigher),marketingandmedia(sixplaceshigher)andnetworksandcybersecurity(fiveplaceshigher).

Respondentsexpressconfidenceindevelopingtheirexistingworkforce,however,theyare

lessoptimisticregardingtheoutlookfortalentavailabilityinthenextfiveyears.Accordingly,organizationsidentifyskillsgapsandaninabilitytoattracttalentasthekeybarrierspreventingindustrytransformation.Inresponse48%ofcompaniesidentifyimprovingtalentprogressionandpromotionprocessesasakeybusinesspracticethatcanincreasetheavailabilityoftalenttotheirorganization,aheadofofferinghigherwages(36%)andofferingeffectivereskillingandupskilling(34%).

Surveyedcompaniesreportthatinvestinginlearningandon-the-jobtrainingandautomatingprocessesarethemostcommonworkforcestrategieswhichwillbeadoptedtodelivertheirorganizations’businessgoals.Fourinfiverespondentsexpecttoimplementthesestrategiesinthenextfiveyears.Workforcedevelopmentismostcommonlyconsideredtobetheresponsibilityofworkersandmanagers,with27%oftrainingexpectedtobefurnishedbyon-the-jobtrainingandcoaching,aheadofthe23%byinternaltrainingdepartmentsandthe16%byemployer-sponsoredapprenticeships.Tocloseskillsgaps,respondentsexpecttorejectexternaltrainingsolutionsinfavourofcompany-ledinitiatives.

Amajorityofcompanieswillprioritizewomen(79%),youthunder25(68%)andthose

withdisabilities(51%)aspartoftheirDEIprogrammes.Aminoritywillprioritizethosefromadisadvantagedreligious,ethnicorracialbackground(39%),workersoverage55(36%),thosewhoidentifyasLGBTQI+(35%)andthosefromalow-incomebackground(33%).

Forty-fivepercentofbusinessessee