2023年4月信用债市场运行报告：信用债净融资继续回落二级市场收益率整体下行

免责声明摘要摘要。AA小改委移交的首批34个企业债券项目同意核发注册批文，债或进一步收窄。1.《2023年3月信用债市场2.《2023年2月信用债市场3.《2023年1月信用债市场信用债净融资继续回落，二级市场收信用债净融资继续回落，二级市场收益率整体下行责声明May12th,2023tomaturityinthesecondarymarketdeclinedasawhole——April2023China'scorporatebondsmarketoperationreportAuthorCaoXiaojing,JianJiangpingtermnoteswiththelargestissuancevolumewere530.330billionyuan,435.417billionyuanand316.946billionyuanrespectively.Therewere147corporatebondscancelledorpostponedinthismonth,involvinganamountof91.837billionyuan.Intermsofnetfinancing,thenetfinancingofChina’scorporatebondsinAprilwas129.170billionyuan,whichcontinuedthedownwardtrendoflastmonth.Amongthe10keyindustries,thebuildingdecorationindustryachievedthemostnetfinancingwithanetfinancingamountofbillionyuanThenetfinancingofAAAAAandAAlevelentitieswas-billionyuan532billionyuanand33.775billionyuanrespectively.Thenetfinancingofstate-ownedenterprisesandnon-state-ownedenterpriseswas90.585billionyuanand38.585billionyuanrespectively.ThenetfinancingofLocalGovernmentFinancingVehicle(LGFV)bondsandnon-LGFVbondswas147.952billionyuanand-18.783billionyuanrespectively.Intermsofmaturitypressure,asoftheendofApril,4,675.695billionyuanofChina’scorporatebondswillmatureinthenextsixmonthsandthematuritypressuremigrationcoefficientwas80,down0.07fromtheendofpreviousmonth.Fromtheperspectiveofindustries,thematuritypressureofmostkeyindustriesdecreasedmonth-on-month.Fromtheperspectivesbondsdecreasedmonthonmonthandthematuritypressureofnon-state-ownedcompanies’bondsincreasedmonth-on-month.FromtheperspectiveofLGFVbondsandnon-LGFVbonds,thematuritypressureofLGFVbondsandnon-LGFVbondsbothdecreasedmonth-on-month.Intermsofyieldtomaturity,inadditiontotheyieldtomaturityof5-yearAA+-ratedLGFVbondincreasedslightlybyawholeinApril.Amongthem,theyieldstomaturityofshort-termandlow-gradeLGFVbondsfellbyarelativelylargermargin,downby24.41BP.Intermsofcreditspreads,thecreditspreadsofmid-andlong-termindustrialbondsandLGFVbondsnarrowedoverallinlevelssinceofwhichthepercentilesofthecreditspreadsofthe3-yearand5-yearAA-ratedLGFVbondsbothexceed85%.May12th,2023InApril,thesix-monthtransitionalperiodarrangementwassetforthetransferofcorporatebondissuanceauditresponsibilities.TheCSRCagreedtoissueregistrationapprovaldocumentsforthefirstbatchof34corporatebondprojectstransferredbytheNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission.Theoptimizationofthebondsupervisionsystemmaydthesecondquarterisstilltheissuancepeakoflocalgovernmentbonds,itmayhaveacrowdingouteffectontheissuanceofcorporatebondsintheprimarymarket;Undertheexpectationofeconomicrecovery,thecreditofmediumandhigh-gradeentitiesisexpectedtoremainstable,andthecreditspreadsoftheirbondsinthesecondarymarketwillremainloworfurthernarrow. (一)一级市场 2 (二)二级市场 10 (三)信用债市场特别关注 14 /17010401040710010407100104071001040710010407100104071001040710010407100104场运行(一)一级市场用债净融资继续回落募00000000,000亿元(见表1)。(亿元)(亿元)(亿元)(亿元)前兑付量(亿元)(亿元)量(亿元)300司债8846244.40637.07期融资券87.72172.AA+级别主体净融资贡献最大，城投债净融资环比下降(1)食品饮料行业净融资环比变动规模最大分行业来看，本文从申万行业中选取10个重点行业统计信用债净融资情况(见图2)。4月份，资金流入规模亿元，规模较上月减少469.18亿元；其次为食品饮料和房地产行2,0001,663.6823.410108.8418.841.097.760-432.17-538.90000房地产建筑装饰公用事业交通运输商贸零售钢铁煤炭石油石化医药生物食品饮料产公用事业炭石化食品饮料22038322-040022-050022-06890//17产公用事业炭石化食品饮料22-070022-087522-09.89.6423-01023-02848823-032.863-041.412022-05至2023-04累计6577.57712652.3363.48233(2)AA+级别主体净融资贡献最大AA月减少96.04亿元；AA-级主体信用债净融资-18.55亿元，净融资额持续为负。AAAA计722-01522-028.9283122-03.645.6922-047.6922-051022-062.7922-072201.18.821112010203040506070809101112010203040102030405060708091011120102030411120102030405060708091011120102030401020304050607080910111201020304AAAA计23-02123-03.793-0499.755A0000000000000000000000(3)国有企业净融资环比下降000000000000071112010203040506070809101112010203040102030405060708091011120102030400000000001112010203040506070809101112010203040102030405060708091011120102030400000000000(4)城投债净融资环比下降Wind上月减少2,079.66。0000000000000000000000000000000000000017000000,000003.信用债总体到期压力环比下降E58,549.0060,0009,507.0246,756.95过去6个月ATAE未来6个月到期总量上月末未来6个月到期总量6个月信用债到期总量较上月末水平减少2,750.07亿元，到期压力迁移系数较上月末水平减少0.07，或表明信用债未来到期压力环比下降。(1)多数重点行业信用债到期压力环比下降E00000ATAE参考线(迁移系数=1)个月到期总量到期压力迁移系数(右轴)上月末到期压力迁移系数(右轴)房地产建筑装饰公用事业交通运输商贸零售钢铁煤炭石油石化医药生物食品饮料(2)非国有企业信用债到期压力环比上升比上升。173,923.063,178.745703,923.063,178.74570000,00000ATAE参考线(迁移系数=1)上月末到期压力迁移系数(右轴)个月到期总量到期压力迁移系数(右轴)1城投债、非城投债到期压力均环比下降；非个月到期总量到个月到期总量到期压力迁移系数(右轴)参考线(迁移系数=1)上月末到期压力迁移系数(右轴),00000000074.3774.373.3001020304050601020304050607080910111201020304050607080910111201020304(二)二级市场债成交活跃度环比下降企业债(亿元)公司债(亿元)中期票据(亿元)短期融资券(亿元)定向工具(亿元)000,000002.中短期票据和城投债到期收益率整体下行3P010203040506-0708-0910111201010203040506-0708-091011120102030405060708091011120102030405-060708091011-1201-020304010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112010203-04AAAAA8AAA7654328A765432AAA弱资质城投债信用利差整体收窄(1)1年期AAA级产业债信用利差处于历史中高水平AAAAA+AAAAA+AAAA-AAAA利差所处百分位数为60%，处于历史中高水平；其余中高等级(AA级至AAA级)各期限产业债信用利差所处百A%%%(2)弱资质城投债信用利差整体收窄AAAAAAAABP至5.25BP之间，AA-级城投债信用利差收窄18.31B