服装营销调研与预测综述

1Chapter5

服装营销调研与预测

MarketingResearch

AndForecasting

25.1市场营销信息系统的构成

TheComponentsofMarketingInformationSystem5.1.1营销信息系统的概念

TheConceptofMIS营销信息系统由人、设备和程序组成，它为营销决策者收集、挑选、分析、评估和分配需要的、及时的和准确的信息。Amarketinginformationsystem(MIS)consistsofpeople,equipment,andprocedurestogather,sort,analyze,evaluate,anddistributeneeded,timely,andaccurateinformationtomarketingdecisionmakers.3MarketingInformationSystemInformationAnalysisInternalDatabasesMarketingResearchMarketingIntelligenceDistributingInformationAssessingInformationNeedsMarketingManagersMarketingEnvironmentMarketingDecisionsandCommunicationsTheMarketingInformationSystemDevelopingInformation45.1.2营销信息系统的构成

TheComponentsof

MarketingInformationSystem营销决策支持系统MarketingDecisionSupportSystem营销调研系统MarketingResearchSystem营销情报系统MarketingIntelligenceSystem内部报告系统InternalRecordsSystem51.内部报告系统

InternalRecordsSystem订单—收款循环

TheOrder-to-PaymentCycle(Wal-mart)销售信息系统

SalesInformationSystem5.1.2TheComponentsofMarketingInformationSystem6

2.营销情报系统

MarketingIntelligenceSystem

营销情报系统是使公司经理获得日常的关于营销环境发展的恰当信息的一整套程序和来源。Amarketingintelligencesystemisasetofproceduresandsourcesusedbymanagerstoobtaineverydayinformationaboutdevelopmentsinthemarketingenvironment.5.1.2TheComponentsofMarketingInformationSystem73.营销调研系统

MarketingResearchSystem营销调研是系统的设计、收集、分析和提出数据资料以及提出公司所面临的特定营销状况有关的调查研究结果。Marketingresearchisthesystematicdesign,collection,analysis,andreportingofdataandfindingsrelevanttoaspecificmarketingsituationfacingthecompany.（营销调研步骤见7.2)5.1.2TheComponentsofMarketingInformationSystem84.营销决策支持系统

MarketingDecisionSupportSystem营销决策支持系统是一个组织，它通过软件与硬件支持，协调数据收集、系统、工具和技术，解释企业内部和外部环境的有关信息，并把它转化为营销活动的基础。Amarketingdecisionsupportsystem(MDSS)isacoordinatedcollectionofdata,systems,tools,andtechniqueswithsupportingsoftwareandhardwarebywhichanorganizationgathersandinterpretsrelevantinformationfrombusinessandenvironmentandturnsitintoabasisformarketingaction.5.1.2TheComponentsofMarketingInformationSystem95.2营销调研的步骤

TheMarketingResearchProcess确定问题和调研目标Definingtheproblemandresearchobjectives制定调研计划Developingtheresearchplanforcollectinginformation执行调研计划——收集和分析信息Implementingtheresearchplan--collectingandanalyzingthedata陈述研究发现Interpretingandreportingthefindings10Step1.确定问题和调研目标

DefiningtheProblem&ResearchObjectives探测性调研ExploratoryResearch描述性调研DescriptiveResearch因果性调研CausalResearchTesthypothesesaboutcause-and-effectrelationships.Gatherspreliminaryinformationthatwillhelpdefinetheproblemandsuggesthypotheses.Describesthingsasmarketpotentialforaproductorthedemographicsandconsumers’attitudes.11Step2.制定调研计划

DeveloptheResearchPlanResearchplandevelopmentfollowsthesesteps:资料来源

Datasources调研方法

Researchapproaches调研工具

Researchinstrument抽样计划

Samplingplan12(1)DeveloptheResearchPlan-

DataSources资料来源

GatheringSecondaryInformation二手资料

InformationThatAlreadyExistsSomewhere.+ObtainedMoreQuickly,LowerCost.--MightNotbeUsableData.SecondaryBothMustBe:相关的Relevant准确的Accurate及时的Current客观的Impartial一手资料InformationCollectedfortheSpecificPurposeatHand.Primary13(2)DeveloptheResearchPlan-ResearchApproaches

调研方法

PlanningPrimaryDataCollection

观察法ObservationalResearchGatheringdatabyobservingpeople,actionsandsituations(Exploratory)实验法ExperimentalResearchUsinggroupsofpeopletodeterminecause-and-effectrelationships(Causal)访问法SurveyResearchAskingindividualsaboutattitudes,preferencesorbuyingbehaviors(Descriptive)MostWidelyUsedForm14

PlanningPrimaryDataCollection

ContactMethods15(3)DeveloptheResearchPlan-ResearchInstruments调研工具

问卷

Questionnaires

16(4)DeveloptheResearchPlan-SamplingPlans抽样计划

PlanningPrimaryDataCollection抽样单位Whoistobesurveyed?(WhatSamplingUnit?)样本量Howmanyshouldbesurveyed?抽样程序Howshouldthesamplebechosen?抽样方法ProbabilityorNon-probabilitysampling?Sample-representativesegmentofthepopulation17收集信息CollectingtheData加工信息ProcessingtheData分析信息AnalyzingtheDataResearchPlanStep3.执行调研计划

ImplementingtheResearchPlanMostExpensive&SubjecttoError18Step4.陈述研究发现

InterpretingandReportingFindings调研者应提出对管理决策有用的重要发现。

ResearcherShouldPresentImportantFindingsthatareUsefulintheMajorDecisionsFacedbyManagement.Step1.解释发现InterprettheFindingsStep2.得出结果

DrawConclusionsStep3.向管理层报告ReporttoManagement195.3市场需求的测量与预测

DemandMeasurementandForecasting市场需求的测量

ThemeasuresofMarketDemand测量哪个市场？

WhichMarkettoMeasure?需求测量的有关词汇

AVocabularyforDemandMeasurement估计目前市场需求

EstimatingCurrentDemand估计未来需求

EstimatingFutureDemand20市场需求的测量

ThemeasuresofMarketDemand10%100%PotentialTotal05%10%20%40%100%PotentialAvailableQualifiedAvailable

TargetPenetrated总市场TotalMarket潜在市场PotentialMarket21AVo阳cabu尝lary步for北Dem立and妙Meas撤urem若ent市场需求Mar该ket刻De绳man除d市场预测Mar姑ket瓜Fo葛rec申ast市场潜量Mark泻etP劝oten庙tial企业需兼求Com房诚pan唐yD坦ema杏nd企业销闻售预测Com元pan