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RichBaileyFSA,MAAA,FCARichmond,VAIsitTimeforEmployerstoMoveAwayFromtheTraditionalWaysofProvidingEmployeeBenefits?
November3,2004AgendaTheEnvironmentTheCatch-22PathsAwayfromTraditionalDelivery:TwoCampsOpportunitiesAlongPath2TheAnswerAdditionalTopics1AgendaTheEnvironmentMedicalTrendsLegislationMarketplaceChangesPopulationDemographicsEmployerOutlookTheCatch-22PathsAwayfromTraditionalDelivery:TwoCampsOpportunitiesAlongPath2TheAnswerAdditionalTopics2Double-DigitIncreaseforSecondYearinaRow
Peremployeecostsinexcessof$5,600peryear-2.9%+6.2%+7.3%+8.1%+11.2%+14.7%Source:2002Mercer/FosterHigginsNationalSurveyofEmployer-sponsoredHealthPlans3AnnualCPITrend
U.S.healthcarecostsrise,despitecontinuingeconomicrecessionThegapbetweenCPI-Uandmedicalcarecomponentisincreasing4ComparisonofOverallGrowth
CumulativemedicalcareCPI89%greaterthanoverallCPIsince1967DatabasedonJanuary1CPIvalues5Employers’CostIncreasesOut-PaceOtherIndicators
Largestincreasesince1990(allemployers)Includesmedical,dentalandpharmacySource:2002Mercer/FosterHigginsNationalSurveyofEmployer-sponsoredHealthPlansResultsforEmployerswith500ormorelives6.9%18.6%16.7%17.1%12.1%10.1%8.0%-1.1%0.2%6.1%7.3%8.1%11.2%14.7%2.1%2.5%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%20.00%1987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002EmployersCPI-MedicalCPI-AllItems6AggregateHealthCareSpending(1980–2010)
Governmentportionofpaymentsincreasing;totalprojectedtobeover$2trillionby2009Source:CMS7MedicalTrendsPopQuizHowmanyyearswillittakegrossmedicalcoststodouble,assumingnospecificemployerinterventionsornationalhealthcare?10ormore98765orfewer8MedicalTrends
Responsesfromagroupof25actuarieswhohadtimetogettheircalculators9LegislationMedicarePrescriptionDrugsIfmadeintolaw,willhavemajorimpactonretireebenefitsandstrategiesInitialconfusionaside,shouldhavepositiveimpactonretireeplansExpectcostshiftingtonegativelyimpactactiveplansEEOCProposedchangesinADEAregulationsClinevs.GeneralDynamicsWellsFargocaseAppearstoallowpre-funding(andtax-deductibility)ofentireretireeliabilityanILPapproachwon’tbeexactlysamenumberasFASliabilityfundinginyears2+wouldbelimitedtoservicecostIRSweighingitsoptions10ProposalstoIncreaseCoverageAmongEarlyRetirees
FewgovernmentprogramsexceptforfinanciallyindigentCOBRAextensionsand/orMedicarebuy-insProhibitionsonpost-retirementbenefitreductionsExpandedpre-fundingforretireemedicalStillfewviableproductsforpre-65inindividualmarketthatovercomeaccessandaffordabilityissues.11ADEAIssues
ImpactonretireemedicalcoverageAgeDiscriminationinEmploymentAct(ADEA)prohibitsdiscriminationagainstpersonsage40orolderintermsandconditionsofemploymentAge-baseddistinctionsinemployeebenefitplansarepermissibleonlyif:Aspecificstatutoryexceptionapplies,orEqualbenefit/equalcosttestissatisfiedPlanmustprovideequalbenefitsforolderandyoungerworkers,orPlanmustincurequalcostsforolderandyoungerworkersThirdandSixthCircuitCourtsreachdifferentconclusionsEEOCreviewingADEAregulations12MarketplaceChanges
ConsolidationofMajorHealthCareCarriers
Employeroptionsaregreatlyreduced,carriershavemorecloutUnitedHealthcareHealthSourceProvidentCIGNAEquicorMetrahealthUSHealthcareAetnaTakeCareFHPPacifiCareHealthSourceCIGNAAetnaUSHealthcareNYLCarePrudentialHealthCareFHPPacifiCareProvidentTransamericaEquitableHCAMetropolitanPartnersAetnaGSDHPLincolnNationalHPsTakeCarePacifiCareHealthPlanofAmericaWellPoint/BlueCrossofCaliforniaHancockMassMutualTravelersUnitedHealthcareAetnaPacifiCareHealthSystemsWellPoint/BlueCrossofCaliforniaCIGNABCBSofGeorgiaMultipleBCBSPlansFewerMajorBCBS13MarketplaceChanges
PBMconsolidationcontinues;threemajornationalPBMsremainCPIAPICPNRxNetValueRxDiagnostekPerformHCSHPIDiagnostekValueRxRxNetColumbiaValueRxExpressScriptsExpressScriptsNPADPSExpressScriptsPAIDMEDCOAdvancedParadigmAdvanceMedcoIntegratedPrescriptionSolutions(IPS)PCSFoundationMerck-MedcoMerck-MedcoProadvantageSystemedParadigmMerck-MedcoMedcoAdvancePCSMajorInsurersMajorInsurersMPSPCSClinicalPharmacyAdvantage14PopulationTrends
AgingbabyboomerswillincreasetheelderlyandnearelderlypopulationsDataSource:U.S.CensusBureauStatePopulationProjectionsBabyBoomersYearofBirth1946to1964Source:U.S.CensusBureauasofJanuary2000U.S.Population,2000ProjectedPopulationMillions15NegativeTidalWaveofAvailableTalent
Poolof“primeworkers”willbedecreasing
Source:DRI,WorldatWorkJournal,fourthquarter2001PercentChangeinPopulationbyAgeGroup,2000-10-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%5-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-79The“Echoboom”
ages15-29ShrinkingPoolof
“Primeworkers”
ages30-44Aging“Babyboomers”
ages45-6916ImpactofDemographicsonHealthCareCost
Costincreaseswithage0.000.501.001.502.002.503.0020-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465+AgeRelativeCostbyAgeMaleFemaleAverageemployercost=1.0RelativeCostsByAgeandGender17HealthDeterioration
AcauseandaconsequenceWeeattoomuch--64.5%ofadultsoverweightPopulationwithdiabetesincreasedover50%inlastdecade*Overweightisroughly10to30poundsoveranidealweight.Obesityisroughly30poundsoveranidealweightSource:NationalHealthandNutritionExaminationSurvey45.0%47.0%47.0%56.0%64.5%18IssuesFacingBusinesses
Theperfectstorm
Lowambientinflation;highmedicalinflationAdvancesinmedicaltechnologylikelytoleadtohighercosts,difficultdecisionsLegislativeuncertaintyConsolidatingmedicaldeliveryandfinancingsystemAnagingworkforceIncreasedlongevitySlowingeconomyDisappearingover-fundedpensionplansFew,ifany,obviousandeasyalternativestomanaginghealthcarecosts19Empl阁oyer征Out原lookEnv睬iro您nme独nta赠lo馋utl绞ook欧sp跃urr所ing门em辣plo非yer再ac笔tio压nEmp朋loy帆ers岗ac设ute鸦ly侦awa损re冈of介tre饲ndsHei辰ght效ene视di顷nte倾res神ti嘉nc兽ost轻sa蛾vin愉gs江tra至teg满ies粥(a唱cti己ve钱and肤re狠tir罢ee)Grea梯ter笋emph逢asis剖on谅long踩ert止erm动cost毁pro卖ject隐ions娃and呜on枕the午“bot振tom撤line想”Pro技jec忧tio显nr眼esu回lts乐ha叮ve转ind做uce源d“叉fig拨ht慨or博fli扛ght吧”r拆esp愉ons垄es20Ret屡ire亿eM厘edi竖cal捏Co甲ver充ageEmpl固oyer谋sco弊ntin申uet罩odr皇opr坝etir作eem锻edic姨alc疾over铁agePercentageofEmployersOfferingCoveragetoFutureRetireesBasedonemployersof500ormorelivesrespondingtothe2001Mercer/FosterHigginsSurveyofEmployer-SponsoredHealthPlansWhencoverageisoffered,retireepremiumsandout-of-pocketcostsoftenincrease21Agen宪daThe廉Envi芝ronm祖entThe坝Catc拦h-22Pat瓦hs木Awa郊yf胳rom日Tr饼adi母tio盯nal统De静liv狗ery贪:T罗wo紧Cam盖psOppo近rtun瓜itie屯sAl格ong腰Path喜2The周Answ罪erAddi铜tion岸alT出opic培s22The土Catc弓h-22Red费uci鉴ng剃emp悦loy毙er怒cos侧tt帜ypi凤cal斑ly染imp辞lie腰si葡ncr筋eas往ing溉em怒plo酸yee抹/re饶tir网ee摔cos虾tEve太ntu柴all右yr名uns合ag讽ain饲st终emp厅loy挑er’尺ss钱ens黑ibi顿lit普ies秆re乒gar剪din休gf味air感nes正s,纳pat记ern不ali牢sm劝(if妈pr往ese疼nt)摇,a阅nd腥the废co叨nce架pt老of碎ben也efi苍ts氧gen医era当llyExa迁mpl火e(身FAS涝10严6):推“L哪owe稳rm孙yl灰iab串ili舟tie市ss绪ign史ifi闻can库tly莫bu械td井on’双td疤oa缩慧nyt堤hin爷gh程ars酿ht压oo耽ur尊ret攻ire铺es…押the静yw付on’亩ta慎cce辰pt脖it”Tot航hee正xten细tth纯atr膏etir厅ees脊repr袄esen锁tth压ebu北lko辜fth冈eli液abil纷ity,佛thi松sis垦av谷ery拨diff跪icul愿tpr陕opos获itio今nOppo父rtun马itie小sex肯ist约toc安hang杯eel浸igib汪ilit酒y,d矩esig鬼n,飘etc.槐for魔fut腊ure引reti侮reesIfw刊edo严n’t俊take杀cos疫tou幻玉tof脑thesys平tem,ei坊ther污the照emp袋loye珍ror痒the拜emp舍loye委es/r留etir帝ees相will嘱pay奏the冒inc须reas丈es23Agen古daThe睬Envi使ronm蛮entThe肠Catc凶h-22Pat惰hs扇Awa顺yf挂rom药Tr磨adi页tio史nal买De济liv哀ery梨:T布wo箱Cam固psOpp珍ort模uni嫂tie棒sA居lon球gP讯ath结2The盯An杆swe县rAdd座iti从ona脉lT走opi唤cs24Path容sAw扇ayf患rom曾Trad挥itio反nal后Deli猜very镜:Tw产oCa炊mpsEmpl觉oyer恋sth怨atb傍ecom指emo采rei遍nvol盾ved插inCha格ngi况ng弓emp燥loy妖ee丢beh涌avi艺orCha附ngi因ng皮pro谁vid披er脱beh壮avi爹orChan迈ging状pro碧vide掩rst尽hat蝇they弄wor氧kwi牌thCha方ngi乔ng叮the饱la栽wsEmpl扣oyer动sth昂atr队educ迟eth点eir胶invo炭lvem深ent锋byInc替rea变sin竟ge骆mpl潜oye险er概esp匪ons劣ibi搜lit轻yLim壮iti灾ng那emp趋loy姐er破cos袜tLimi刷ting葱emp搅loye抹rri群sk25Empl屈oyer它sBe丘comi团ngM脂ore钻Invo劳lvedColl无ecti叠veP零urch恳asin扰gHig严hP婶erf压orm茶anc因eN隆etw赖ork躁sDire扰ctC案ontr爬acti付ngCon郑sum堆er园Acc组oun执tab败ili塞tyLea曲pF万rogLob今byi败ngDis卡eas狮eM休ana乘gem愿ent洋/Pr脂eve尽nti声ve收Car而eWha借tt番hes督ea仗ppr掌oac磁hes疯sh乏are耽is主an氧ey依et浮owa挪rd着red迁uci旗ng泛cos并tf旱rom笑th结ee冲mpl楚oye柏r’s固sy他ste稼m,屠and潮in脖so疗me阻cas圈es,弹th它ee艰nti状re称hea柄lth骆ca够re异sys使tem弯.26Coll燥ecti尝veP瓦urch描asin腔gUse足em昼plo侦yer政an居dp非lan趴ma奔nag厚er亲clo渔ut矩to旦neg宝oti蛾ate度fa兰vor肿abl素ep益aym岭ent瓦ar寇ran竭gem防ent护sBack模grou谁ndTra启dit引ion勤al笑net咏wor旬kn沃ego喊tia好tio盏ns局are钉vo捎lum掌ed房诚riv男enAppr额oach尖est舱oac民hiev椒elo编wer爽cost欠sin蝇clud俘eAgg纳reg终ate杠dp挂urc跪has踏ing抽to按im穴pro见ve役neg租oti征ati睛ng疗str谷eng链thCoa方lit拢ion验sFor删mal遍al爸lia遥nce锦sInf根orm巴al艘all丹ian汤cesDir兆ect荣ing夜ca龟re天to螺mos似tc咐ost还-ef屑fec乒tiv秤es串our黄ce峡of伯qua踪蝶lit贼yc魄areRev封iew漆ing薪ef邻fec欣tiv喊ene蒜ss,揪ef件fic仇ien番cy席and盖“f帜it”遣of腹cu枣rre掌nt受ven粮dor序re镇lat旺ion遇shi娘ps;遇ch滩ang乖ing桌as每ap窃pro够pri俯ate27What邮is幼aHP鹊N?High恩Per抽form退ance绒Net饰work裂:Ahe箩alth邮pla回npe古rfor性manc出eim传prov挠emen倍tme予thod棚tha撒tst旁eers荡car惕eto休pro势vide啄rst闸hat轿meet巩spe生cifi掀cef朽fici他ency蹦and蝇qua旦lity桑cri馆teri欢a28Rati暴onal馋efo婚rHP声NsNew府mana阿geme杂nta灰ppro云ache资sar食ene坏eded乖in茧this竭era碧of污cost优acc鸟eler偷atio锁nPati黄ents倡and装phy马sici模ans损are巧the肯key常driv绞ers镜ofh危ealt联hca摊rec豪ostsBut犁th慨ey轻hav赖el典imi卫ted券or般no漂in撤cen播tiv金et斧oc纳are纲ab捞out狠co援stsThe熟hear惯tof哀the尘Hig虫hPe麻rfor顽manc爱eNe聋twor泊kco暖ncep势tis至to演chan旋get巴hep瓦rovi删der阿sele颈ctio题nbe筹havi申oro毁fpa膊tien摘tsa棵nd/o凝rph淋ysic骑ians29Hig艳hP薯erf咽orm要anc飘eN漂etw撇ork获sNet怜wor巡寿km猴ode台lsLim腿ite拾dN爆etw畜orkAs乌ubs祸et睡of影an商exi摆sti卵ng饼pro框vid怨er解net裙wor名kc披omp同ris娃ed爽of登hig观hp度erf杰orm壤ing哀pr肠ovi眼der腔sTier公edN闸etwo迁rkEmpl既oyee刚cop眼ay/c拔oins投uran请ced庭iffe族rent多ials防to呼enco鼠urag端eus祸eof室hig越hpe消rfor舟ming新pro顾vide拒rsPhys沫icia鹊nPa雄rtne稀ringAna皂rran岂geme吉ntw惨ith组(typ眠ical斯ly)败prim争ary自care佳phy闷sici增ans发toe旨nhan勿cee晨ffic猎ienc亿yCon换sum窜er救Dri佳venDep观loy被men味to配fp全erf少orm堆anc遥ei风nfo扫rma止tio罚nt绿oc齿ons窄ume踢rs低to绒imp贫rov源ep悲rov治ide骨rs挨ele覆cti汇on30Dire触ctC掉ontr延acti映ngLarg摆eem踪蝶ploy拥ers棚with详sig障nifi蒜cant甩mar么ket兆pres喘enceMay窑be忙ab妄le立to剖ach若iev际es眨ign勇ifi悔can窃ts亭avi嫁ngs排by此co们ntr煌act汁ing旁di返rec故tly垦wi贞th是hea跳lth偷ca图re蔬pro坟vid魄ersMay番ne愧ed蔽gro纽奉up忌of翅reg索ion唤al盼emp符loy繁ers首to俭ac扯hie明ve岔cri岔tic扁al缎mas具s31Pro造mot怕eC息ons涌ume恋rA捐cco厘unt停abi若lit证yHel云pp雁ati浊ent点sb必eb桶ett打er盏con驴sum士ers某of械he采alt背hc尖areBac彩kgr球oun咏dIfh宪alf何ofc绑ost信isd貌uet励oli冬fest壤yle泪and摆half索of办chro岔nic昆pati单ents荷do原not床foll召owt丝式reat慈ment境pla糕n,w槐hat然can企wed熄o?Get岸me银mbe王rs’组at锡ten吓tio庸n–积ma是ke择the长ma鹅war骨eo莫fc秩ons域equ萍enc栋esAppr壤oach酷est恶oen郊cour子age材cons砌umer夫inv鸭olve煌ment援inc嚼ludeCoor糖dina立ted省heal家thp霜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