（英文）行业资料 Power Transition Trends 2022 Coal power spikes,but progress on renewables brings hope

PowerTransitionTrends2022

Coalpowerspikes,butprogressonrenewablesbringshope

SofiaMaia

LuizaDemôro

September21,2022

585

409

-237

Coal

Wind

Other-fossil

NaturalGasHydro

SolarNuclear

Otherrenewables

Executivesummary

5.6%8.5%

75%

Growthinglobalpowerproductionin2020-2021

Spikeincoalgenerationin2020-2021

Windandsolar’sshareof2021capacityadditions

Theworldrecordedanunprecedentedspikeincoalgenerationin2021ascountries

turnedtoexistingfleetsoffossil-fueledpowerplantstomeetfast-growingpower

demandandkeepthelightsonamiddroughtsandhighernaturalgasprices.However,

renewabletechnologiesalsohadabanneryear,bothintermsofcontributionstoglobal

generationandnewcapacityadded.

Whatoccursoverthebalanceofthisdecadestandstobedecisiveindetermining

whethertheworldachievesanet-zeroemissionspathandpolicymechanismsto

Globalannualgenerationchangebytechnology

addresstoday’senergychallengeswillinfluencehowthatfutureunfolds.Thisannual

reportexaminestrendsinglobalgeneration,capacityandemissions.Itaimsto

TWh1,5001,2501,000 750 500 250 0 -250-500

750

271316

-256-273

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

illustratetopolicymakers,investorsandotherkeystakeholders,aheadofCOP27,the

stateofthepowersectorgloballythroughyear-end2021.Itisbasedondatacollected

byBloombergNEFanalystsonsixcontinentsfromprimarysourcesin136countries

andmarkets,alongwithaggregateddatafromtherestoftheworld.Keyfindings

include:

●Theworldsawanunprecedentedspikeinglobalcoalgeneration2020-2021,withan8.5%jumpinpowerproductionfromthetechnology.GreatercoaluseboostedpowersectorCO2emissions7%in2021fromtheyearprior.

●Threefactorscontributedtothecoalsurge:reboundingtop-lineelectricitydemand

thankstoeconomicrecovery,lowerhydrogenerationduetodroughtsaroundthe

worldandhighernaturalgasprices.HalfofthecountriesthatpledgedattheCOP26talkstophaseoutcoalrecordedgrowthincoalgenerationin2021.

Source:BloombergNEF

1September21,2022

Executivesummary(2)

●LedbyAsia,totalglobalpowerproductionjumped5.6%in2021aseconomiesbouncedbackfromtheimpactsofCovid-19.Powergenerationspikedto27,300TWhfrom25,800TWhtosetanewhighfollowingthreeyearsofstableelectricitydemand.

●Solarachievedanewmilestonein2021,clearing1,000TWhofgenerationforthefirsttime,whilewindneared2,000TWh.Together,the

technologiesaccountedfor10.5%ofallpowerproducedworldwide.Inall,zero-carbongenerationtotaledover10,000TWhtomeetnearly40%ofglobalpowerdemand.

●Windandsolaraccountedforthreequartersofthe364GWofnewcapacityinstalledin2021.Solaralonewashalfofallcapacityaddedandsolarannualbuildwas25%higherin2021thanin2020.Meanwhile,netgrowthincoalcapacitywasatitslowestinatleast15years.Inall,fossilfuelsaccountedforonly14%oftotalcapacityaddedintheyear.

●Morecountriesthaneverareoptingtobuildrenewableenergy.In2021,overthreequartersoftheworld’snationssurveyedinstalledmorecleanpower(includinghydro)onacapacitybasisthananyothertechnology.Solarwasthetechnologyofchoiceinnearlyhalfoftheworld’snations.Hydrofollowedwith15%,downfrom20%adecadeearlier.

●Solarisalsoquicklyspreadingtonewmarketsthoughdeploymentatscaleremainssomewhatconcentrated.In2021,thenumberofcountriesthatinstalledatleast1MWofsolarcapacityreachedanewhighof112markets–7.5timesthenumberofmarketsthataddedcoal.Thisisupfrom101marketsin2020andjust55in2012.

●53economiesaddedsomewindcapacityin2021,upfrom44in2020.Still,cleanenergydeploymentatscaleremainsconcentrated.Tenmarketsaccountedfor85%ofsolarcapacityadded.Aseparate10werewhere89%of2021windgotbuilt.

●Totalglobalpower-generatingcapacityhasnearlydoubledover15yearsandreachedanewhighat7.9TWin2021.TheAsia-Pacificregionhasledthecapacityboomwith191%growth2006-2021.Coalcontinuestoaccountforoveraquarteroftheglobalinstalledcapacity.

2September21,2022

Globalpowergenerationrebounded

in2021

Globalannualgenerationbytechnology

'000TWh

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

27.3

25.8

1.42.7

4.2

25.4

1.22.7

4.1

25.8

23.9

1.02.6

4.0

24.5

23.2

2.5

3.9

22.8

2.5

3.8

22.3

2.4

3.7

1.0

21.8

2.43.6

1.62.6

4.3

1.12.6

1.92.7

4.3

4.0

5.25.05.15.55.75.7

5.96.16.16.2

8.58.99.08.78.89.19.49.18.99.6

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Coal

Wind

Geothermal

NaturalGas

Solar

Other-fossil

Hydro

Oil&Diesel

Nuclear

Biomass&Waste

Source:BloombergNEF

Totalglobalpowerproductionjumped5.6%in2021aseconomiesreboundedfromtheworstoftheCovid-19pandemic.Generationspikedfrom25,800terawatt-

hours(TWh)in2020to27,300TWhin2021.Thismarkedanewhighandcameontheheelsofthreeyearsofflatelectricitydemand.

Coalledthegrowthwithan8.5%jumpfrom2020-

2021.Totalglobalcoalgenerationreacheditshighestleveleverin2021at9,600TWh.Overtwothirdsof

marketswithsomecoalcapacityinstalled(52aroundtheworld)sawcoalgenerationgrow2020-2021.Bycomparison,from2019-2020coalusageroseinjust27markets.

Globalsolargenerationreached1,000TWhforthefirsttime,whilewindneared2,000TWh.Allzero-carbon

sourcesofgeneration(renewables,hydroand

nuclear)totaledover10,000TWh,ornearly40%of

globalpowerproduction.Generationfromnaturalgasandnuclearrose3%and4%,respectively,while

hydropower’scontributionslidby0.7%.

3September21,2022

27.3

30

25

20

15

10

5

25.8

25.8

25.4

24.5

23.9

23.2

22.8

22.3

21.8

5.1

5.1

5.5

5.1

4.9

5.2

5.2

5.0

5.3

5.2

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.9

5.0

5.0

4.6

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.8

5.0

4.4

4.8

5.0

4.3

13.7

Asiadrovethegenerationgrowth

Globalannualgenerationbyregionorcountry

'000TWh

4.95.35.65.65.96.36.77.27.48.2

0

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

ChinaAsia-Pacific(excl.China)

EuropeNorthAmerica&Caribbean

MiddleEastCentral&SouthAmerica

Africa

TheAsia-Pacificregionledthespikeinglobal

electricityproductionwitha9%2020-21jump.Thankstoastrongeconomicrebound,Chinasawgenerationrise10.5%to8,200TWh.Thismarkeditslargest

singleyear-on-yearjumpinadecade.

PowerproductioninAsia-Pacificmarkets(excludingChina)isnowgreaterthaninEuropeorNorth

America&Caribbean.Theseeconomiesaccountforthelargestgrowthinpowerproductionover10yearsandjumped6%2020-2021to5,500TWh.TheuptakewasledmainlybyIndia,SouthKorea,Malaysia,

JapanandIndonesia,whichtogetherrepresented73%ofAsia’sex-Chinatotalgenerationgrowth.

Central&SouthAmericaandEuropesawgeneration

grow5.6%and4.3%,respectively.Meanwhilein

NorthAmerica&CaribbeanandAfrica,power

demandhasremainedroughlyflat.

Source:BloombergNEF

4September21,2022

DemandforelectricityfromtheAsia-Pacificregionhasrisenswiftlyoverthepastdecadeandthecontinent

nowaccountsforhalfofglobalgeneration.Chinaaloneaccountsfor30%oftheglobalpower

generation.

DemandinNorthAmericaandEuropehasdeclinedoveradecadeandtouchednewlowsin2021.NorthAmericaandEuropeaccountedfor19%eachoftheworld’selectricityproductionin2021,downfrom23%and22%,respectivelyin2020.

TheMiddleEast,Central&SouthAmericaandAfricahavebroadlyheldtheirsharesofglobalgeneration,astherateofgrowthindemandinthesenationshas

5%

5%

19%

5%

5%

21%

5%

5%

20%

5%

5%

20%

5%

4%

22%

5%

5%

20%

5%

5%

21%

5%

4%

22%

5%

5%

21%

5%

5%

21%

19%

19%

19%

20%

21%

21%

22%

21%

22%

23%

20%

20%

20%

21%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

50%

30%

29%

28%

27%

26%

25%

24%

24%

24%

23%

Asiaaccountsforhalfofglobal

electricitydemand

Shareofannualgenerationbyregionorcountry

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

ChinaAsia-Pacific(excl.China)

EuropeNorthAmerica&Caribbean

MiddleEastCentral&SouthAmerica

Africa

generallymatchedtheglobalgrowthrate.TheMideastandCentral&SouthAmericaaccountfor5%ofglobalelectricitygenerationeach,whileAfricarepresents

3%.

Source:BloombergNEF

5September21,2022

1,000

500

0

-124-119

-237

-256-273

143

91

261

226

158

297

118

270

750

585

201

101

137

205

104

316

126

78

137

198

139

105

116

409

177

271

118

326

71

96

109

148

170

89

Coalaccountedforthemajorityof

additionalgenerationin2021

Globalannualgenerationchange

TWh

1,500

-94

-500

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Biomass&WasteHydro

Oil&Diesel

Solar

Coal

NaturalGas

Other-fossil

GeothermalNuclear

Wind

Forthefirsttimesince2013,coal-firedpowerplantswerethetopcontributortotop-linepowergenerationgrowth.Followingtwoyearsofdecline,coalgenerationjumped750TWhin

2021andaccountedforoverhalfofallnetadditionalpowergeneration.Threefactorsexplainedthesurge:fast-growingpost-pandemicelectricitydemandoverall,depressedhydrogenerationduetodroughtsandhighernaturalgasprices.

Anothercoalgenerationspikeispossiblein2022as

Europeannationsseekshort-termsolutionstocompensatefordroughtsandextremelyhighgasprices.Germanyhas

thisyearreactivated4.8GWoffossilfuelpowerplants,

including3.2GWofcoal-firedcapacity.Another5.5GWof

coalisexpectedonlinebyyear-end,alongwith4GWof

nuclearcapacity.OtherEuropeancountriesareexpectedtofollowsimilarpaths.

Source:BloombergNEF

6September21,2022

China,IndiaandtheUSledthecoal

generationspike

Annualcoalgenerationchangeintopmarketsforcoal

electricitygrowth

TWh

800

600

400

200

0

-200

-400

20172018201920202021

2020-2021coalgenerationchange

+395TWh

+153TWh

+110TWh

+30TWh

+29TWh

+9TWh

+7TWh

+6TWh

+6TWh

+5TWh

China

India

US

Germany

Poland

IndonesiaAustralia

Brazil

Netherlands

Philippines

China,IndiaandtheUSledthespikeincoalpowerproduction.Thesemarketssawcoalgenerationjump9%,16%and14%,respectively2020-2021.

Coal’sreboundin2021cameaftermuch-celebrated

declinesinpreviousyears.TheUS,Germany,

NetherlandsandItalyareamongcountrieswherecoalelectricityhasbeentrendingdownsinceatleast2017.

HalfofthecountriesthatpledgedtophaseoutcoalatCOP26recordedgrowthincoalgenerationin2021.InNovember2021,over40countriescommittedtoretirecoalcapacityandnearlyallworldnationspledgedtophasedownunabatedcoalplants.Still,many

countriestrendedintheoppositedirectionin2021.

Source:BloombergNEF

7September21,2022

Over85%ofcoalgenerationoccursin

just10countries

Topcountriesforcoalgeneration

16%15%15%15%15%14%14%14%13%13%

9%

11%

9%

11%

10%

11%

12%

11%

12%

11%

15%

8%

15%

8%

15%13%13%

9%10%11%

44%45%45%45%45%46%48%50%52%52%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Source:BloombergNEF

Othercountries

Australia

Russia

Germany

SouthAfrica

Indonesia

SouthKorea

Japan

US

India

China

Tencountriesaccountedfor87%ofthetotalcoal

powerproducedgloballyin2021.Thiswasvirtuallyunchangedfrom2020.China,IndiaandtheUS

accountedtogetherfor63%.JapanandSouthKoreacompletedthetopfive,with3%and2%ofthetotal,respectively.

Chinahasbeenthetopcoalgeneratorforatleastthelast15yearsandin2021wasresponsiblefor52%ofcoalgeneration,upfrom44%in2012.Itscoalpowerproductionhasconsistentlyincreasedsince2015andrecordeda9%jump2020-2021.

Indiawasthesecondbiggestcoalgeneratorandwasresponsiblefor11%ofthetotal,or1,100TWhwiththeUSrightafterwith9%,or904TWh.Unlikeallothersinthetop10,theUShascutitscoalgenerationshare

sincethebeginningofthedecade.In2012,theUSwas15%ofcoalgeneration;in2021,itwas9%.

8September21,2022

Manymarketscontinuetorelyheavily

oncoal

Leadingnations’coalpenetrationrates

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Mongolia

SouthAfrica

Kazakhstan

India

Poland

Morocco

Serbia

Indonesia

China

Philippines

Tencountriesrelyoncoaltomeetat60%oftheir

powerdemand.Mongolialeads,withover90%ofitselectricitycomingfromcoal,followedbySouthAfricawith86%.Inbothnations,growthinwindandsolar

usehasslowlyhelpedreducecoal’sshare.

Kazakhstan,IndiaandPolandfollowwith79%,74%and73%,respectively.

ThePhilippinesandIndonesiahasseentheirrelianceoncoalrisemostoverthepastdecade.Inboth

nations,coalhasbeennearlytheonlysourcemeetingfast-growingdemand.Renewableshaveseenlimitedprogressbycomparison.Philippines’coalreliance

spikedfrom39%in2012to59%in2021.In

Indonesia,itjumped49%to61%overthesame

period.

Source:BloombergNEF

9September21,2022

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Highercoalgenerationboostedpower

sectoremissions7%

Globalpowersectoremissionsbytechnology

MtCO2e

16,000

14,000

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

CoalNaturalGasOil&Diesel

Source:BloombergNEFandNEO2020

Globalpowersectoremissionsbycountry

36%36%35%

36%

37%

37%38%

38%

37%37%

4%6%

8%

13%

4%6%

8%

13%

4%3%5%5%

8%8%12%12%

4%6%

8%

13%

4%4%6%6%

7%8%

14%14%

5%6%

6%

15%

5%5%

6%6%

6%7%

15%15%

34%

33%

36%36%

32%

31%31%

30%

31%31%

China

India

Japan

UnitedStatesRussia

Othercountries

PowersectorCO2emissionsrose7%in2021fromthe

yearpriortosetanewrecord.Thiswasmainlydueto

thejumpinyear-on-yearcoalgeneration.Emissions

fromcoal-firedpowerplantsrose8%in2021fromthe

prioryear.Naturalgasemissionsalsoincreased4%

comparedto2020.Thismarkedthebiggestyear-on-yearriseingas-relatedemissionssince2014-2015.

Duetohighcoalgeneration,China,theUSandIndiaareresponsiblefor57%ofglobalpowersectoremissions.

RussiaandJapanfollowfarbehindwith5%and3%,respectively.

Whileemissionsremainedflatorslidslightly2019-2020inabsolutetermsinmostnations,inChinatheyrose1%in2020and9%in2021.Since2015,thecountryhas

consistentlyraiseditsshareoftotalglobalpowersectoremissions.Insixyears,China’spower-sectoremissionshavesoared28%overthelastsixyears.

10September21,2022

Withnearly3,000TWhofpowerproducedin2021,

windandsolaraccountedforacombined10.5%of

2021generation.Wind’scontributionroseto6.8%,upfromjust0.7%adecadeago,whilesolarreached

3.7%upfromvirtuallynothingin2012.Non-hydro

renewables(wind,solar,geothermalandbiomass)reached13%oftotalgeneration,comparedto5%atthebeginningofthisdecade.

Zero-carbontechnologiesaccountedfor39%oftotalgenerationin2021.Hydroandnuclearwere16%and10%respectivelyin2021,buttheparticipationof

thesetechnologiesingridshasjustfluctuatedoverthedecade.

11%11%11%4%4%5%5%%

11%11%11%10%11%10%10%

17%

17%

17%

17%

17%

16%

16%

16%

17%

16%

23%

24%

23%

24%

24%

23%

23%

24%

23%

24%

39%40%39%38%37%37%37%35%34%35%

Windandsolarsurpassed10%of

globalgenerationforthefirsttime

Shareofglobalgenerationbytechnology

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

CoalNaturalGasHydroNuclear

WindSolarOil&DieselBiomass&Waste

GeothermalOther-fossil

Fossilfuelsremaintheworld’smainpowersourceandaccountedfor61%of2021globalgeneration.Coal

remainedthetoptechnologyin2021at35%.Naturalgasfollowedwitha23%contribution.

Source:BloombergNEF

11September21,2022

16%

9%

4%

9%

Solarisconcentratedinasmallnumber

ofmarkets,butothersaregrowing

Leadingnations’sharesofglobalsolargeneration

9%10%10%12%12%11%11%13%14%14%

3%

4%

3%3%3%4%6%

5%

6%

4%

6%

13%

7%

7%

7%

12%

7%

3%

3%

20%

26%

15%

12%11%

15%

30%

3%

32%

30%

9%13%17%

33%

19%

16%

7%

14%

17%

17%

5%14%15%15%

12%13%11%

27%23%

7%

3%

6%

11%

10%

10%9%

12%

19%15%

9%

4%

8%

3%

7%

2%

6%

3%

3%

5%

2012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Source:BloombergNEF

Othercountries

UK

Turkey

Brazil

Vietnam

Mexico

SouthKorea

India

Australia

China

France

US

Japan

Spain

Italy

Germany

Whilesolargenerationremainsconcentratedina

relativelysmallgroupofcountries,newleadershaveemergedoverthedecade.In2012,mostsolarpowerproductionwasconcentratedindevelopednations,

butoverthedecadeithasgainedmomentumina

growinganddiversenumberofnations.In2012,only33countrieshadsolargenerationabove20GWh.By2021,thishadmorethantripledto118countries.

AthirdofglobalsolargenerationoccurredinChinain2021.TheUS,JapanandIndiafollowedwith11%,9%and7%,respectively.Vietnam,MexicoandBrazilareotheremergingmarketsthathaveseensolar

generationgrowoverpastfewyears.Together,theyaccountedfor6%of2021globalsolargeneration.

12September21,2022

2006

2007

2008

2013

2014

2015

2016

Totalinstalledcapacityhasnearly

doubledin15years

Globalinstalledcapacitybytechnology

Globalinstalledpower-generatingcapacityreachedanewhighin2021of7.9TW,nearlydoublethe4TW

TW

7.9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

7.5

7.2

6.9

6.6

6.4

6.0

installed15yearsago.From2020to2021,capacitygrew4.8%,thebiggestincreasesince2015-2016.

5.8

0.41.0

0.8

0.7

1.2

1.0

5.5

0.7

0.6

1.2

5.3

0.5

0.6

5.0

0.8

1.2

0.4

0.5

4.8

0.3

0.5

4.5

4.3

0.4

1.1

4.2

4.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.01.0

0.9

1.4

0.9

1.3

0.9

1.3

1.41.51.51.61.61.71.71.81.81.8

0.8

1.2

0.8

0.8

1.1

Windandsolargrewfastest.SolarPVcapacityjumped23%2020-2021to973GWin2021.Thatismorethanninetimesthe103GWthatwasonlinein2012and139timesthe7GWthatwasinstalledin2006.Globalwindcapacityjumped12%2020-2021to833GW.Totalwindcapacityinstalledhasnearlytripledinadecade.

1.2

1.21.31.41.41.51.61.71.71.81.91.92.02.02.12.12.1

Weexpectwindandsolartoaccountforoveraquarterglobalcapacitybytheendof2022.Together,these

CoalWind

2009

2010

2011

2012

NaturalGasSolar

Hydro

Nuclear

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Other-fossilOil&Diesel

technologieswere23%ofglobalcapacityasofyear-end2021.Zero-carbontechnologiesreached45%ofglobalcapacity,upfromjust11%in2012.

Biomass&WasteGeothermal

Coalstillaccountsforthelargestindividualshareofglobalcapacity.Coalcapacityonlinecontinuestoriseevenasitsshareonpercentagebasisdeclines.

Source:BloombergNEF

13September21,2022

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

7.9

0.20.3

0.4

+123%

7.57.2

TW8

6.96.6

7

6.4

6.0

5.81.6

+117%

6

4.24.34.54.85.05.35.51.41.41.41.41.51.51.6

5

+90%

4.01.41.5

1.11.11.21.21.31.31.31.31.41.41.41.5

4

+40%

3

1.21.2

1.11.11.23.8

2

1.13.03.13.33.6

+44%

2.22.42.62.81.31.41.51.71.81.92.0

1

AsiaandAfrica’scapacityhasgrown

fastestinthepast15years

2006-2021

Globalinstalledcapacitybyregion

growth:

0

+191%

Source:BloombergNEF

Africa

Middle

East

Central&

South

America

Europe

North

America&

Caribbean

Asia-

Pacific

TheAsia-Pacific’spower-generatingcapacityhas

nearlytripledinadecadeandahalf.Inabsolute

numbers,APAC’stotalinstalledcapacityjumpedfrom1.3TWin2006to3.8TWin2021.Laos,Cambodia

andVietnamallrecordedimpressiveexpansionsof

theirpowermatrices,withgrowthratesrangingfrom528%toover1,100%since2006.Africafollowedwitha123%jumpovertheperiod.In2021,thecontinent

reached249GWofcapacity,upfrom111GWin2006,Angola,EthiopiaandRwandaareamongtheAfricannationsthatsawtheirinstalledcapacitygrowmost

overtheperiod.

EuropeandNorthAmericaweretheregionsthathave

grownleastsince2006.Theseregionssawtheir

powermatrixesgrowbyjust40%and44%,

respectively.

14September21,2022

2013

4%

5%

4%

5%

27%

4%

5%

26%

4%5%

5%5%

25%24%

5%5%

5%5%

24%23%

5%

5%

23%

5%5%5%5%5%5%

5%5%5%5%5%5%

22%22%21%21%21%20%

4%4%

5%5%

20%20%

27%

20%20%

24%23%22%21%21%21%18%18%18%18%18%19%

24%25%25%26%27%28%

25%

26%25%

26%26%

27%

27%

28%

19%19%

18%

17%17%

17%17%

18%

18%

18%

29%30%

22%

21%22%

19%20%

18%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Asiaishometonearlyhalfofglobal

installedcapacity

Shareofglobalinstalledcapacitybyregionorcountry

15%

16%

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

China

Europe

Central&SouthAmerica

Asia-Pacific(excl.China)

NorthAmerica&CaribbeanMiddleEast

Source:BloombergNEF

49%

2021reaffirmedtheAsia-Pacificregion’sroleinthe

globalpowermixandtheregionnowishometo49%ofglobalinstalledcapacity.Asofyear-end2021,

APACtotaled3.8TWinstalled,withChinaaccounting

alonefor30%ofthetotalglobal.Thecountry’s

capacityhasmorethandoubledoveradecade,from1.1TWin2012to2.3TWin2021.

ApartfromAsia,allotherregionsbroadlyheldtheirshares2020-2021withEuropeandNorthAmerica

remainingthesecondlargestregionsforinstalled

capacity,accountingfor20%each.However,thesewerealsotheonlytworegionstoseetheirsharesof

capacitydropsharplysince2006,wheneach

accountedfor27%ofglobalcapacity.

Despitebeinghometo16%oftheworld’spopulation,Africahasjust3%ofinstalledglobalcapacity.This

sharehasremainedstableoverthepast15years.

15September21,2022

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

323536

32

15316135

33

31

32

27

31

32

27

30

26

30

535455

30

52

4647

444445

4751546269779398100102

300

250

200

150

100

50

179

14

FossilfuelspredominateinAfricabut

areconcentratedinfivecountries

Africainstalledcapacityby

technology

GW

300

233242249

223

2061014

16717919130313029

250

200

150

49

100

50

0

NaturalGas

Hydro

Other-fossil

Wind

Biomass&Waste

Source:BloombergNEF

Coal

Oil&Diesel

Solar

Nuclear

Geothermal

Africainstalledcapacitybymarket

GW

233242249

223

206

191

74

77

57

153161167

60

64

69

66

14

485053

1212

19

13

13

19

14

21

14

22

22

24

13151617

46464749525557596263

29313236

40

46

5559

59

60

0

SouthAfrica

Algeria

Morocco

Egypt

Nigeria

Othercountries

FossilfuelsdominateAfrica’spowermatrixwith

naturalgasaccountingfor41%capacityinstalled,

followedbycoalwith22%.Renewables(including

largehydro)haveconsistentlygrownoverthedecadeandnowaccountfor23%ofthecontinent’stotal

capacity.Solarjumpedfromjust0.3GWin2012to

14GWin2021,whilewindgrewfrom1.2GWto8GWovertheperiod.

Africa’stotalinstalledcapacityisheavilyconcentratedinfivecountries,whicharealsohometofiveofthesixhighestelectrificationratesonthecontinent.South

Africa,Egypt,Algeria,NigeriaandMoroccoaccountfor69%oftheregion’spowermatrixat172GW.

SolarhasthepotentialtocloseAfrica’selectrificationrategapasaroundthreequartersoftheSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA)populationstilllacksaccesstoreliable

electricity.BNEF’s2020NewEnergyOutlookprojectsthatsolarinSSAcouldreach55GWin2030andover400GWin2050.However,toallowPVtoflourish,

financialandregulatorybarriersmustbeaddressed.

16September21,2022

4%4%

16%

12%

18%

13%

20%

7%

15%

10%

17%

14%

20%

17%

18%

13%

21%

12%

17%

13%

15%

10%

14%

21%

20%

25%

19%

17%13%

21%

36%

36%41%43%

50%

22%

11%

16%

17%

11%

13%

19%

6%

17%22%

31%

28%

29%

6%25%

22%

46%36%30%29%35%32%22%25%25%27%

Solarwashalfofallcapacityinstalled

in2021

Shareofglobalcapacityadditionsbytechnology

2007

2008

2009

Coal

Solar

Other-fossil

2010

2011

2012

2013

NaturalGasNuclear

Geothermal

2014

2015

2016

Hydro

Oil&Diesel

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Wind

Biomass&Waste

Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Shareofglobalcapacityadditionsexcludingretirements.

Newpower-generatingcapacityaddedgloballysetanewrecordin2021at364GW.Thiswasup7%from339GWin2020,andup41%from257GWaddedin2012.

Solarwas50%ofallcapacityadded,followedbywindat25%.PVadditionsin2021were25.5%largerthanthosein2020.