益普索：2022年在线消费者对电动汽车的态度调查（EN）

WHATONLINE

CONSUMERSARE

SAYINGABOUT

ELECTRICVEHICLES

–ANDHOWTHE2022

MODELSSTACKUP

ASynthesioReport

Author:EmmaHuff

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Theautomotiveindustryhasfacedsignificantdisruptionoverthepastfewyears;supplychainissueshaveleftlittleinventoryandlongwait-timesforshoppers,andelectricvehicle(EV)manufacturershavedisruptedthestandarddealershippurchasejourneywithnewdirect-to-consumermodels.Meanwhile,

globaltrends

insustainabilityandclimateconsciousnesshavebroughtconversationsaboutEVstothefore.AccordingtoarecentstudyfromtheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,hybrid,plug-inhybrid,andelectricvehiclesalesintheUSincreasedin2021–andnowsurpass

10%

ofalllight-dutyvehiclesales.MuchofthisincreaseisattributedtonewmanufacturerofferingsfromestablishedcompanieslikeBMWandChevroletand,ofcourse,Tesla.In2021,manufacturersbrought126newhybridandelectricvehiclemodelstomarket,versusonly49internalcombustionengine(ICE)vehiclemodels.

ButnotallconsumersaresoldonthebenefitsorpracticalityofEVs.TounderstandhowtheEVtrendisevolvingandwhotheaudiencesegmentreallyis,wecollectedandanalyzedmorethan14milliononlinementionsoverthepast6monthsinSynthesio’sAI-enabledconsumerintelligenceplatform.

INSIGHT#1:TESLAANDBMWDOMINATEONLINE CONVERSATIONSABOUTEVSINTHEUSANDEUROPE

Onlineconversationsrelatedtoelectricvehicleshaveincreasedby16%globallyoverthelast6months–andby20%inEuropeand27%intheUS.Acrossbothregions,theTeslaModel3,ModelS,ModelY,andBMWi4modelsleadshareofvoicebyvolumeandinteractions.

Figure1Top10electricvehiclesbypercentageoftotalconversationvolumeoverthelast6months

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Source:09/10/2021–3/10/2022,publicmentionsinUSandEuroperelatedtoelectricvehicles,Englishonly

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Amongthetop10most-discussedelectricvehiclesintheUS,theLucidAirandBMWi4havethehighestpercentageofpositivesentiment,81.5%and73%respectively.Interestingly,whenwecorrelatedconversationsaboutbothofthesemodelswithpurchasemotivationsanddriversofpositivesentiment,theBMWi4andLucidAirweremostcorrelatedwith“performanceandspeed”and“designandcomfort”;otherfactorsliketheeconomicandenvironmentalbenefitsdidnotappearasofteninonlineconversations.

Ontheotherendofthespectrum,theChevroletBoltEVandTeslaModelShavethehighestpercentageofnegativesentiment(48.8%and45.9%).WhenlookingatthetopexpressionsassociatedwithnegativesentimentfortheTeslaModelS,phraseslike“steeringwheel”(referringtotheYoke),“delivery,”and“tooexpensive”dominateonlineconversations.FortheChevroletBoltEV,topphrasesinclude“speculationaboutdiscontinuation”and“firerisk.”

Figure2Toptenmost-discussedmodelsintheUSbypositivesentiment

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Source:09/10/2021–3/10/2022,publicmentionsinUSrelatedtoelectricvehicles,Englishonly

Synthesio’sTrendLifecyclemappingshowstherelativegrowthratesofeachmodel;modelsinthe“development”stagehaverelativelylowvolumesofonlineconversationsandlowgrowthrates.Modelsinthe“growth’stagehavebothhighvolumesandhighvelocitygrowth;astheymoveintothematuritystage,growthstartstoslowdown.

FromSeptember2021toMarch2022,theTeslaModel3contributedthehighestvolumeofonlineconversations,butthePorscheTaycanandBMWiXgainedonlinetractionandaremovingtowardsthe“introduction”phasewithhighgrowthrates.Conversely,conversationsabouttheRivianR1Thaveslowedtoagrowthrateof0%.

BymonitoringtheTrendLifecyclemappingovertime,wecanseewhichbrandsaregaining–orlosing–socialbuzz.Comparingthesnapshotbelowtotheprevious6-monthperiod–fromMarch2021toSeptember2021–showsthattheRivianR1Tmovedallthewayfromdevelopmenttomaturity,meaningonlinebuzzslowed,whereasthePorscheTaycanhadsimilaroverallconversationsvolumes,butahighergrowthrate.

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Figure3Synthesio’sTrendLifecyclemapshowswhichcompetitorsaregrowingonline–andwhicharefadingout

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Source:09/10/2021–3/10/2022,publicmentionsinUSrelatedtoelectricvehicles,Englishonly

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INSIGHT#2:CONTRARYTOPOPULARBELIEF,CONSUMERS

AREMOREINTERESTEDINEVS’PERFORMANCEANDSPEED

THANTHEIRENVIRONMENTALANDECONOMICBENEFITS

Tounderstandwhat’sdrivingconsumerinterestinEVs,wecategorizedmillionsofonlineconversationsintofourpurchasemotivations:performanceandspeed,environmentalbenefits,economicbenefits,anddesignandcomfort.Despiteglobalsupportfortheshiftfromfossilfuelsasenergypricesrise,onlineconsumersinboththeUSandEuropearemoreinterestedEVs’promiseofhigherperformanceandspeedthantheirimpactontheenvironment.

Figure4Top4purchasemotivationsbyconversationvolumeintheUS

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Source:09/10/2021–3/10/2022,publicmentionsinUSrelatedtoelectricvehicles,Englishonly

Acrossthe27EVmodelswetrackintheSynthesioplatform,conversationsaboutperformanceand

speedaremosthighlycorrelatedwiththeTeslaModel3,TeslaModelS,TeslaModelY,BMWi4–followedbytheLucidAirandPorscheTaycan.Forall6models,consumers’topassociatedemotionisjoy,drivenbyperceptionthatEVperformanceandspeedhavesurpassedthatofICEvehicles.

“ThenewModelSisthebestroadtripcarever.Adaptiveairsuspensionmakestheridesupersmooth,ventilatedseatsareawesome,soundsystemisincredible,rangeissuperbandchargingiswickedfast.Did350milesyesterdayandnottiredatall.”

“Willnevergetusedtotheperformance.Everythingelseisruinedlol”

“ThisweekIdrivethe@PorscheTaycanGTSonthebigtrackatWillowSprings.Thatkindofpowerandinstanttorqueiseyeopening.”

“BMWI4-AMAZING!Sofast!”

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AREANEAR-TERMREALITY

INSIGHT#3:CONSUMERSARENOTYETCONVINCEDEVS

Despitetheonlinehypeandpositivefeedbackforthenew2022EVmodels,manyconsumersarestillexpressingreservation;fromlongproductiontimestoprohibitivecosts,manydon’tseeEVsasapracticalalternativetoICEvehicles–evenasgaspricescontinuetorise.

TounderstandwhatconsumersarereallysayingaboutEVs,weusedSynthesioTopicModelingtoscanandcategorizemillionsofrelevantconversations.Thebottom-upapproachthatusesmachinelearningtogenerateclustersofconversationalthemesrevealedwhat’sholdingconsumersbackfromembracingelectricmodels.TheresultsclearlyshowwheretheOEMsstillhaveworktodo.

Figure5SampleofclustersidentifiedbySynthesioTopicModelingrevealconsumerpurchasebarriers

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Source:SynthesioTopicModeling,09/10/2021–3/10/2022,publicmentionsinUSrelatedtoelectricvehicles,Englishonly

Charginginconveniences

“Ontopofthemoneyforanelectriccar,youneedtoputinanoutletforchargingthatcar.Thiscanaddmany,manythousandsmorejustforthechargingstationathome.”

“Youreallycan'townanEVifyoucan'tchargeitathomeovernight.”

“Ican'tevenfindanelectricchargingstationnearmyhouse.Iliveinatownhousewithnogarage.Iwouldhavenowaytochargeanelectricvehicle,norwouldmillionsofothers.

Batteryissues

“I'mstillnotfullyconvincedbyEVsinparticularthebatteries.Buynew,veryexpensive,buyused,batterylifelimitedplusiflikemeyoukeepacarforyears,youcouldendupwithadeadbatterypackandabillforthousands”

“AnEVseemslikeadisposablecarduetothebatteryissue.Buyingareplacementbatterywillkilltheresalevalueandlikelywon’tmakeeconomicsenseonadatedmodel.”

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Longwaittime

“Iagreethathighpriceswillencourageatransition,butEVsupplychainsarenotreadytoreplacethemassiveinstalledbaseofICEvehiclesthatmostpeoplerelyon.”

“MyheartwantstheEV6,butthewaittimeiswaytoolong”

“Ijustboughta“gasguzzler”becauseanEVwouldn’tbeshippabletillnextJanuary.That’salsonottakingintoaccountnewsupplychainissuestocomeoutofthis.”

High

prices

“ElectricalvehiclesaretooexpensiveformiddleincomefamiliesandthegovernmentpayssubsidiessorichpeoplecanbuyaEVtheycanafford.”“

“Realitystrikesagain:****carinsuranceiswaymoreexpensive****95%ofmechanicsareEVilliterate****Homechargingstationscanbepricey****Electricityisn't'free'****majorityofelectricityisgeneratedviaFOSSILFUEL”

ThelargestclusteridentifiedbyTopicModelingpertainedtoJoeBiden.FollowingrecenteventsliketheUSbanonRussianoil,gaspricesreaching$6.00inpartsoftheUS,andacommentfromBideninsinuatingAmericansshouldbuyEVsinresponsetohighfuelprices,manytooktosocialmediatoexpresshowunattainableandunaffordableEVsreallyare.AsimilarcommentfromPeteButtigegcausedaspikeinEV-relatedconversations,revealingjusthowfrustratedconsumersarebythelackofaffordableoptions.

“Forallofyoustrugglingtoaffordgas,theBidenadministrationsaidforyoutojustgobuyabrandnewelectriccarandthatwillsolveyourgasproblems.”

“Honestly,themajorityofuscan’tjustgooutandbuyanelectriccar.They’reTOOexpensive.Likewecanallaffordthat.@”

Toquantifytheimpactofthesebarrierstopurchase,wecategorizedmillionsofconversationsintothe“topics”identifiedbyTopicModeling.IntheUS,pricewasthenumberonebarrier(28.4%ofconversationvolume),followedbyavailability(19.6%)andcharginginconvenience(16.5%).Safetyconcernsrelatedtobatteryfires,“carhacking,”andshortcircuitingalsogeneratedasignificantnumberofmentions.

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INSIGHT#4:MILLENIALMALESDOMINATETHEEVTARGET

AUDIENCEINTHEUS

TounderstandwhotheaudienceinterestedinEVsreallyis,weusedSynthesioProfileraudienceanalysis.ProfilerharnessesdatafromFacebook,theworld’slargestbehavioraldataset,toprovidea360-degreeviewofspecifiedaudiencesegmentsincludingtheirsociodemographiccharacteristics,hobbiesandinterests,onlinebehavior,andmore.

Comparedtoareferenceaudienceofnearly250millionpeopleintheUS,EVfansaremorelikelytobeinthe25-34agerange,male,andlivingincoastalstateslikeCalifornia,Florida,NewYork,andNewJersey.

Maybesurprisingly,theEVaudiencearenotbigsocialmediausers;comparedtothereferenceaudience,theyareunderrepresentedonFacebook,Instagram,Twitter,andSnapchat.TheyshowarelativelyequalaffinityforYouTube–whichunderscorestheimportanceforautomotivemanufacturerstoanalyzeYouTubedataforfindbetterinsightsabouttheirbuyers.

Figure7TotalvolumeofUSconsumersexpressinginterestinEVsandsocialmediaplatformsrelativetotheUSpopulation(definedasanyonelivingintheUSages18-65+)

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Source:Synthesio,02/01/22–02/14/22,publicglobalmentionsrelevanttoSuperBowl,Englishonly

Asfortheirhobbiesandinterests,EVfanshavethehighestaffinityforgolf,car,andkayaking.TheirtopliveeventsofinterestincludetheSuperBowl,USOpen,andMastersTournament–agoodsignforelectricvehiclemakersthatinvestedmillionsinadvertisingatSuperBowlLVIthisyear.Theyalsoshowamuchhigheraffinityforgaming,with30.9%interestedinTheWitcher3:WildHunt,29.9%interestedinNBA2K,and27.1%interestedinLeagueofLegends–andcertainathleteslikeLeBronJamesandSerbiantennisplayerNovakDjokovic.

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Figure8Top5TVchannels,culturalevents,andathletesforwhichUSconsumersinterestedinEVshaveahigheraffinitycomparedtothereferenceaudience(definedasanyonelivingintheUSages18-65+)

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Source:SynthesioProfilerforUSconsumersonly

CONCLUSION

Untilrecently,theEVmarkethasbeenoperatingwithoutmajorcompetition.ThoughTeslastilldominates–bothinmarketshareandonlineconversations–newmodelsfromestablishedmanufacturersandemergingEV-onlybrandsarestartingtocapturetheattentionofconsumers.Totakeadvantageofrisinginterestinelectricvehiclesandattractbuyers,automakersshould:

•Usesocialdatatotuneintowhat’sreallydrivingbuyerstomakethemovefromICEtoEV.In2022,USconsumersarewellawareoftheneedtoreducetheircarbonfootprintandenvironmentalimpact,butsocialinsightsprovethatthisisn’tthesole(orprimary!)factorencouragingdriverstobuybatteryelectricvehicles.Plus,purchasemotivationsvarybybrand,region,agerange,andmore.Automakersshouldaugmenttheirexistingmarketresearchinitiativeswithsocialdatatotapintohowconsumersthink,feel,andtalkaboutEVs–thenpositiontheirnewproductsaccordingly.

•Identifytheirtargetaudience’spurchasebarriers–theninvestinfightingmisconceptions.Asevidentinonlineconversations,EVmanufacturersstillhavemoreworktodoinconvincingconsumersthatEVsare“worthit”–andthatlowermaintenancecostsplusmoneysavedonfuelwillreallyoffsetthestickerprice.Tohelpmoveconsumersalongthepurchasepath,automakersshouldusesocialandbehavioraldatatobetterunderstandmajorpurchasebarriers–bothgeneralandbrand-specific–thentailortheirmarketingtacticstoaddresstopconcerns.

•Optimizetargetingwithbettercontent,channels,andcampaignsbasedonEVbuyers’preferencesandbehaviors.Byanalyzingallonlineconversationsrelatedtoatopic(likeEVs)orbrand,wecaneasilyidentifythecontentandchannelsthatperformbest–andtheinfluencersdrivingadoption.GiventhatourProfilerstudyrevealedEVbuyers’interestsareoverrepresentedincertainhobbies,culturalev