布鲁金斯学会-中国在为全球能源转型提供关键矿产方面的作用：未来会怎样？（英）

hewdl s es a 6Conclusion 28 ingsingseirT s decarbonizationgoals.toiressyforatC erswnedlsumrmsvelopysessitionshttpswwwieaorgreportstheroleofcritiGeededledartrynaloygyehesdhedgerhralpuraialalmelsellingedsedreyAandinforChinangyyingonndishseoustdtionyT utrgdnChina’sLevelofControlChina’sLevelofControlghControlhEnforcement2Beijing’scleanandgreenmonopoly•Globalcriticalmineralssupplychainsaredominated1Geopoliticalandsustainabilityrisksimperiltheenergytransition•GlobalcriticalmineralssupplychainsaredominatedendtoendAvirtuouscircleofcompetitionandsustainability•TheU.S.andEuropehavesuccessfullybuiltoutcriticalmineralssupplychainstorivalChina.•Allplayershaveinstitutedrigorousduediligencestandardsacrossthesupplychain.Implicationsfortheenergytransition•Theclearbest-casescenario•Lowerriskofpricevolatility,duetoanabundanceofcleanerandgreenermineralsandderivativeproducts•LowerriskofsupplychaindisruptionsduetogeopoliticaltensionsorlogisticalissuesControlhEnforcement3Conversely,alow-enforcementscenarioassumesacontinuationofthestatusquo,withmostsmeltersandrefinersfallingshortofstandardsformineralsupplychainduediligence.Theverticalaxisconsiderstheglobalshareofupstream,midstream,anddownstreamcriticalmineralsactivitiesdominatedbyChina.Alow-concentrationscenarioassumesasubstantialscale-upofcapacityacrossthesupplychainbyotherjurisdictions,includingtheU.S.andEurope.Ahigh-concentrationscenarioassumesthatChinamaintainsahighlevelofcontrolovercriticalmineralssupplychains.HighghControlEnforcementbyChina,andtheworldisbyChina,andtheworldishighlydependentonChinafortheinputsneededfordecarbonization.endtoendbyChina,butthecountryhasinstitutedrigorousandlegallybindingduediligencerequirements.Implicationsfortheenergytransition•Potentiallylesspricevolatility,duetoarobustsupplyof“cleaner”and“greener”criticalmineralsandderivativeproducts•Positiveefectsfornaturalresourcegovernanceinresource-richcountries,helpingtobringmoremineralstomarket•Higherriskofsupplychaindisruptionsduetogeopoliticaltensionsorlogisticalissues•Premiumsforasmallsupplyof“cleaner”and“greener”criticalmineralsandderivativeproducts,leadingtopricevolatility•Likelysupplychaindisruptionsduetogeopoliticaltensionsorlogisticalissues•Higherriskofsocialandpoliticalconflictarounddecarbonizationeforts4ControlEnf4ControlEnforcementsupplychains•Governmentsareabletomonetizeresourcesdespitelower-than-anticipateddemandandlessminingactivityglobally,duetoperceivedlowlevelsofpoliticalandstakeholderrisk.Implicationsfortheenergytransition•Higherriskofpricevolatilityforcriticalmineralsandderivativeproducts•PotentialforaggressivemovesbyWesterngovernmentstolimittheflowofChinesecriticalmineralsandderivativeproductsChina’sChina’sEnforcementofSupplyChainDueDiligenceLow*Severalfactorsoutsidethescopeofthisscenarioanalysiswillmateriallyaffecthowthingsevolve,ofcourse,includingoveralllevelsofdemandforcriticalmineralsandtheirprices,andtechnologicalbreakthroughsthatreducemineralrequirementsforkeyenergytransitionapplications.Inthisscenario,globalcriticalmineralssupplychainsaredominatedendtoendbyChina.MineralsmeltingandrefiningandbatterycellmanufacturingarehighlyconcentratedinChina,whileChineseminingcompanieshaveexpandedupstreamcontrolovercriticalmineralstofeeddownstreamoperations.TheChinesegovernmenthasnotmadeanymovestoimplementlegallybindingdue1HighControlLow1HighControlLowEnforcementrisksimperiltheenergytransition•GlobalcriticalmineralssupplychainsaredominatedendtoendbyChina,andtheworldishighlydependentonChinafortheinputsneededfordecarbonization.Implicationsfortheenergytransition•Premiumsforasmallsupplyof“cleaner”and“greener”criticalmineralsandderivativeproducts,leadingtopricevolatility•Likelysupplychaindisruptionsduetogeopoliticaltensionsorlogisticalissues•Higherriskofsocialandpoliticalconflictarounddecarbonizationefortsdiligencerequirementsonactorsacrossthesupplychain.ThisscenarioassumesthateffortsintheU.S.andEuropetobuildoutdomesticcriticalmineralssupplychainshavelargelyfaltered,stymiedbysocialandpoliticaloppositiontominingdevelopmentsdiligencerequirementsonactorsacrossthesupplychain.andgovernmentsgloballyremainhighlydependentonChinesecompaniesfortheinputsneededtoachieveclimatecommitmentsinvolvingdecarbonization,especiallyrechargeablebatteries.thismeanfortheenergytransitionThisscenariowouldbeclearlynegativefortheenergytransition.Theglobalsupplyof“green”and“clean”criticalmineralsfortheenergytransitionwouldbeinsufficient,forcingdifficultdecisionsandtradeoffs.Keychallengesinthisscenariowouldinclude:responsiblesourcingchallengingforcompaniesacrossthesupplychain,particularlydownstreamactors.Automakersandothercompaniescouldstruggletosourceenough“clean”and“green”criticalmineralstobringenoughproducttomarkettomeetdemand,particularlyiftheirsourcingwereundergreaterscrutinyfromregulators,civilsocietyorganizations,orconsumersanditwerechallengingtosourcefromChinawithahighdegreeofconfidencethatmineralsand/ormineralproductswerenotlinkedtoabuses.Thiswouldlikelybeanacuteriskforcompaniesoperatinginjurisdictionswithbindingduediligencelaws;theycouldfacesignificantfinesorotheradverseregulatoryactionforabusesintheirsupplychains.Companiescouldthereforebewillingtopaypremiumsforcriticalmineralssourcedtransparentlyinaccordancewithstrictduediligencestandards,leadingtocompetitionforasmallshareoftheworld’scleancriticalmineralssupplies.Thiscouldtheoreticallydriveupthecostoftheenergytransitionsignificantly.isscenariopresentsariskthatexportsofcriticalmineralsproductscouldbeinterruptedinthecontextofrisinggeopoliticaltensions.TheongoingtradewarbetweenChinaandtheU.S.underscoresthepotentialfortradecontrols.Movingforward,geopoliticaldisputes—gfnssn22Beijing’scleanandgreenmonopolyGlobalcriticalmineralsHighControlHighEnforcementsy•Positiveefectsfornaturalresourcegovernanceinresource-richcountries,inathismeanfortheenergytransition•ans3LowControlHighEnforcementAvirtuous3LowControlHighEnforcementandsustainabilityTheU.S.andEuropehavelybuiltoutcriticalvalChinainImplicationsfortheenergytransition•Theclearbest-casescenarioityduetoaneenermineralsruptionsduetoalsthismeanfortheenergytransitionnicallfl4Bifurcationofcritical4BifurcationofcriticalmineralsLowsupplychains•GovernmentsareabletoEnforcementlower-than-anticipateddemandandEuropeaneffortstobuildoutdomesticcriticalEuropeaneffortstobuildoutdomesticcriticalmineralsupplychainshavebeenlargelysuccessful.Inpracticalterms,thismeanssignificantlyincreaseddomesticmining,ahighlycoordinatedefforttomakesubstantialImplicationsfortheenergytransition•Higherriskofpricevolatilityforcriticalmineralsandderivativeproducts•PotentialforaggressivemovesbyWesterngovernmentstolimittheflowofChinesecriticalmineralsandderivativeproductsinvestmentsinvestmentsinrefiningandsmeltingcapacitydomesticallyandwithincountriesintheMSP,majorexpansionofdomesticcellcomponentandbatterymanufacturingsectors,andcontinuousinvestmentinR&Dtoremaincompetitive.However,inthisscenario,theU.S.andEUhavetightduediligencerequirementsoncriticalminerals,butChinadoesnot.Theresultistwodifferentstreamsofcriticalmineralsglobally:onesourcedandthenrefinedandprocessedintheU.S.andEUinaccordancewithstrictduediligenceregulations,andonesourcedandthenrefinedandprocessedinChinawithoutstrictduediligence.Thismeanscriticalmineralssuppliesthatarebifurcatedinto“cleaner”thismeanfortheenergytransitionThisscenariowouldbenegativefortheenergytransition,althoughnotasbadasscenario1.Thekeyimplicationsinclude:bifurcationofcriticalmineralssupplychainswouldlikelyhavepriceimplications,withonepotentiallytradingatapremiumandtheotheratadiscount.DependingonthepercentageofthesupplychainthattheU.S.andEUultimatelycontrol,thiscouldforcecompaniestochoosebetweenmoreexpensive“cleaner”mineralsandcheaper“dirtier”ones.Thiscoulddriveupthecostoftheenergytransition,althoughthesituationissetoutinscenariocouldmovetolimittheflowofChinesecriticalminerals,eitherduetosignificantgeopoliticaltensions(analogoustoattemptstolimittheflowofRussianoilandgasfollowingitsinvasionofUkraine)orduetogrowingconcernsaboutsocial,environmental,orhumanrightsabusesinthesupplychain.Thiswouldlikelyexacerbatepricevolatility.Theexactdynamics—and,specifically,howaggressivelygovernmentsmightmovetoforcecompaniestouse“cleaner”and“greener”criticalminerals—wouldlikelydependonthegeopoliticalclimateandtheextentofconcernsaboutabusesincriticalmineralssupplychains.TheU.S.andEuropecouldpotentiallymovetoinstitutestrictermandatorykeldmedseT ewreeddmaseslyfssoofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.ntw(2017).OECDDueDiligenceGuidanceforofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.lsDemandfromEnergyTransitionMayTopCurrentGlobalSupply.rns9seofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.ialPolicyTradeandCleananGoh,B.,&Patton,D.(2022,March21).VolkswagenunveilsAsianventurestosecuree-batterymaterialssupply.Reuters./business/autos-transportation/volkswagen-china-says-will-form-ventures-with-huayou-cobalt-tsingshan-group-2022-03-21/ofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.ForsytheM,&Bradsher,K.(2021,December22).WhyaChinesecompanydominateselectriccarbatteries.TheNewYorkTimes.https://www./2021/12/22/business/china-catl-electric-car-batteries.htmlZijinMiningGroupCo.,Ltd.(2022,June29).AnnouncementinRelationtotheAcquisitionoftheXiangyuanLithiumPolymetallicMineinDaoCounty,HunanProvince.https://www.InternationalEnergyAgency.(2021).TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.erTEverythingisClimateNowNewDirectionsforIndustrialPolicyfromBiden’sofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.rketIntelligencehttpswwwspglobalworldwideQuartz./1971108/chinese-rare-earths-giant-shenghe-is-building-global-alliances/tlyChainsegovswdeal-16of022.pdfytwHYPERL