交通规划-交通模式分割课件

Office#616交通组织运输学The4-StepModelLanduseandsocioeconomicprojectionDirect(user)impactTransportationsystemspecificationTripgenerationTripdistributionModalchoiceNetworkassignmentTransportationPlanning123456789ModalchoiceO/D12341xxxxxxxxxxxx2xxxxxxxxxxxx3xxxxxxxxxxxx4xxxxxxxxxxxxtrainO/D12341xxxxxxxxxxxx2xxxxxxxxxxxx3xxxxxxxxxxxx4xxxxxxxxxxxxbusO/D12341xxxxxxxxxxxx2xxxxxxxxxxxx3xxxxxxxxxxxx4xxxxxxxxxxxxautoTransportationPlanningTransportationPlanningModeusage(modalchoice,ormodalsplit)analysisistoestimatetheproportionoftrip-makerstravelingbetweeneachpairoforigin-destinationzoneswhoarelikelytouseeachmode(publictransitorauto).UnderstandthefactorsthatinfluenceindividualchoicesoftravelmodesEvaluatetheimpactsofalternativetransportpoliciesonmodalsplitHowtoachieveabalanceduseofdifferenttravelmodesthroughefficienttrafficcontrolandmanagement(e.g.roadpricing)ObjectivesofModalChoiceAnalysisTransportationPlanningFactorsInfluencingtheChoiceofModeCharacteristicsoftheTrip-makerCaravailabilityand/orownershipPossessionofadrivinglicenseHouseholdstructureIncomeResidentialdensityCharacteristicsoftheJourney(Trip)ThetrippurposeTimeofDaywhenthejourneyisundertakenTransportationPlanningFactorsInfluencingtheChoiceofModeCharacteristicsoftheTransportFacilityQuantitativefactorssuchas:RelativetraveltimeRelativemonetarycostsAvailabilityandcostofparkingQualitativefactors(lesseasytomeasure)suchas:ComfortandconvenienceReliabilityandregularityTransportationPlanningUtilityandDisutilityFunctionsModalchoicehasarelationshipwiththeutility.Theutility(ordisutility)functionistypicallyexpressedasthelinearweightedsumoftheindependentvariablesortheirtransformation:VistheutilityderivedfromachoicedefinedbythemagnitudesoftheattributesXthatarepresentinthatchoiceandthatareweightedbythemodelparametersa,parameterscanbeestimatedbylinearregression,basedonactualchoiceresults.TransportationPlanningExampleofDisutilityFunctionsAlinearutilityfunction:WhereX1=in-vehicletraveltimeX2=monetarycostX3=cost/incomeX4=reliabilityContinuousvs.DiscreteGoodsBusAutoIndifferentcurveBudgetcurveTransportationPlanningDiscreteChoiceAnalysisTimecostMonetarycostDiscreteChoiceFrameworkDecision-Maker-Individual(person/private/publicsector)-Socio-economiccharacteristics(income,objectives)Alternatives-decision-makernselectsonefacingJnalternativessetCn={1,2,…,Jn}withJn

alternativesAttributesofalternatives-Traveltime,cost,reliability,safety….Decisionrules-Dominance,satisfaction,utilityetc.TransportationPlanningDiscreteChoiceAnalysisASimpleExampleDecision-maker:anindividualtravelerChoice:whethertochoosetrainorbusAlternatives:train,busUtility:-U(X)=a1*money+a2*time+a3*reliabilityDecisionrules:maximizeutility(choosethealternativethathasmaximumutility)ResultIfU(train)>U(bus)->trainIfU(train)<U(bus)->bustastesTransportationPlanningDiscreteChoiceAnalysisIfU(train)>U(bus)->trainProbability(train)=1IfU(train)<U(bus)->busProbability(train)=0TransportationPlanningDiscreteChoiceAnalysisASimpleExampleRandomUtilityModelDecisionrule:Utilitymaximization-DecisionmakernselectsthealternativeiwiththehighestutilityUi

amongJ

alternativesinthechoicesetCSystematicutility:functionoftheobservedvariablesRandomutilityChoiceprobabilityTransportationPlanningDiscreteChoiceAnalysisBinarychoiceTransportationPlanningDiscreteChoiceAnalysisRandomUtilityModelBinaryLogit(LogisticProbabilityUnit)TransportationPlanningTheLogitModelTransportationPlanningTheLogitModel%usingtransit100755025TransitBetterAutoBetterLogitcurveDifferentintimes,cost,etc.Probabilityofusingmodei,Pi,isgivenbySumcorrespondingtoallcompetingmodesUtility---measurethedegreeofsatisfactionofthemodeDisutility---measurethegeneralizedcost(impedance..)ifgivendisutilityfunctionsSimplestcasebusautoBinaryChoice(Busvs.Auto)TransportationPlanningTheLogitModelGeneralizedtravelcostIdonotcarethecost.Foranytravelcost,Ichooseoneinprobability½.Idocarethecostverymush.Ichoosetheonewithlowercostinprobability1.moresensitiveBinaryChoice(Busvs.Auto)TransportationPlanningTheLogitModelBusshare(%)BusmorepreferableHowaboutthegeneralcase?(1)Whathappensas(2)WhathappensasTransportationPlanningTheLogitModelAssumethattherearetwoalternativesforHankouandWuchang,i.e.CarandTrain.Basedonsurveyandcalibration,theutilityfunctionforthetwoalternativesaregivenbyTraveltime(mins)FareorToll(元)TotaldemandTrain453Q=20,000PersontripsCar30101.ApplyinglogitmodeltodeterminethenumberofpassengersusingTrainQTrain

andthecarvolumebetweenHankouandWuchangQCar(assumecaroccupancyis1,i.e.onepassengerparcar).2.Determinethecarvolumesuppose,duetotrafficcongestion,thetraveltimebycarwilldependsonthecarvolumeonthebridges,givenby3.Changethetollchargeforcar(Toll),sothatthecarvolumeisreducedtoExampleTransportationPlanning3.Changethetollchargeforcar(Toll),sothatthecarvolumeisreducedtoSolutionTransportationPlanningTransportationPlanningIndependenceofIrrelevantAlternativesProperty(IIA):TheIIApropertyholdsthatforaspecificindividual,theratioofthechoiceprobabilitiesofanytwoalternativesisentirelyunaffectedbythesystematicutilitiesofanyotheralternativesinthechoiceset.TheLogitModel不相关选择项的独立性Red/BlueBusExampleSupposeinacorridor,V(car)=V(bus),so,P(car)=P(bus)=1/2Nowsupposethatthebuscompanypantshalfbusesintobluecolor(theremaininghalfbusesarestillinredcolor).WethushaveREDandBLUEbusesastwooftheavailablealternatives.ApplyingtheLogitmodelP(car)=1/3;P(redbus)=1/3;P(bluebus)=1/3SoP(bus):1/22/3(Impossibleinreality)afterchangingcolorObservedresult:P(car)=1/2;P(redbus)=1/4;P(bluebus)=1/4someproblems?TransportationPlanningNestedLogitModelHierarchicalChoiceStructureAllTripsModalSplitMode1Mode2Mode3AllTripsPrimarySplitMode1SecondarySplitCompositeModeMode2Mode3OvercometheIIAProblemofMultinomialLogit–Alternativesarecorrelated(e.g.,redbusandbluebus)TransportationPlanningNestedLogitModelArunotayanun,K.,2010.Tasteheterogeneityandmarketsegmentationinfreightshippers’modechoicebehaviour.TransportationResearchPartE(inpress).Levelofserviceforfreightmodalchoice:MonetarycostTimecostReliabilityFlexibilityQualityCargotypeandvalueTransportationPlanningTheApplicationofDiscreteChoiceAnalysisExampleSupposethedis-utilityofthecustomersdemandingthepackagedeliveryservicebetweenaspecificODpairiscapturedusingservicefareandtimecostwhereparameteriscalledvalue-of-timeandfollowsthefollowingcumulativedistributionForacertaincommodity(e.g.,weightbelow100g),thetotaldemandisexogenouslygiven,Q.TransportationPlanningTheApplicationofLogitModelDepictingthesuppliersinthemarketServicefareServicetimeTransportationPlanning快递公司TheApplicationofLogitModelDiscussions(1)Whichsupplierwillsurviveinthismarket?Why?(2)Howdoesthesuppliersacttoattractmoredemand?(3)Howtocalculatethemarketshareforacertainsupplier?(4)Howtocaptureindividualcustomer’sperceivederror?TransportationPlanningTheApplicationofLogitModelServicefareServicetime(1)Whichsupplierwillsurviveinthismarket?Why?TransportationPlanningTheApplicationofLogitModel(2)Howdoesthesuppliersacttoattractmoredemand?ServicefareServicetimeTransportationPlanningTheApplicationofLogitModelServicefareServicetime(3)Howtocalculatethemarketshareforacertainsupplier?TransportationPlanningTheApplicationofLogitModelServicefareServicetime(4)Howtocaptureindividualcustomer’sperceivederror?MixedlogitmodelTransportationPlanningTheApplicationofLogitModelPiyush,T.,Hidekazu,I.,Masayuki,D.,2003,Shippers’portandcarrierselectionbehaviourinChina:adiscretechoiceanalysis.MaritimeEconomics&Logistics,Vol.5,pp:23-39.TransportationPlanningTheApplicationofLogitModelTransportationPlanningTheApplicationofLogitModelProblemMethodologyStandardmultinomiallogitModelPortc