2022-10-03-器官斯坦利货运快车道USPS费率增加IAM铁路联盟协议以及现货与合同行为进入异常领域

17252792856964498963840219514%71724315AvgSum1.9V227 3SPNANANANA-649%%%%%%%%%%%tyROEROICickernkerviShankerankerstRaviShankerystRaviShankerRaviShankerr$520.9.4$64.0$451.3$74.5$4.9$83.5$204.9$127.0ParcelAirfreightAnalyst:RaviShanker$$19.0$61.2$244.6$154.2$113.9LogisticsAnalystRavi,Shanker$4.2$3.0$58.3$5.5$2.5$59.6$34.6$35.9$22.6$12.0IntelligentTrucking-Analyst:RaviShankerTSPTruckload-Analyst:RaviShanker$4.6$0.6$4.2$0.6$0.5$4.6$4.0$4.0$1.8Less-Than-Truckload-Analyst:RaviShankerAvgSum.4$0.6$0.7$35.3$0.6-$0.1$35.3$8.8$8.8$3.0$5.8--------------------------Less-Than-Truckload-Analyst:RaviShanker---------7%MWTicker202120222023202120222023iShankeralystRaviShankeraviShankerngAnalystRaviShankerAnalystRaviShankerAnalystRaviShankerAvgSum8.1%11.7%11.1%$355$326$4446.6%4.7%4.4%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%Rails-Analyst:RaviShankerParcel/Airfreight-Analyst:RaviShankerLogistics-Analyst:Ravi,ShankerIntelligentTrucking-Analyst:RaviShankerTSPNM-Truckload-Analyst:RaviShanker---Less-Than-Truckload-Analyst:RaviShankerAvgSum1.7%heM1.Tg,oNSCpggCgpygSgEBITg.WebelieveSaiafallsinbetweenitsLTLpeers–itdoesnotapproachtheoperatingqualityofODFLorthediversificationandvaluationofARCB.WhileSaiaisagoodexecutorwithagoodstrategy,webelievethemarkethasbeentoogenerouswithpricinginORgainsintheimpliedmultiplewhenthereisalongwaytogo.1.Investorpositioningcandrivestockvolatilityinbothdirections2.Northeastexpansionshouldhelpdrivegrowth1.NotthesamequalityasODFL2.NotascheaporasdiversifiedasARCB3.MacroimprovementcoulddriveupsideWeseeSNDRaswellpositionedtobenefitfromanimprovingtruckloaddemandenvironment,structuralsupplytightening,IMCgains,thesecretsauceoftheQuestsystem,andtechnologyleadershiptakingadvantageofseculargainsfromintelligenttrucks.Lappingthelossesofthenow-shutteredFTFMbusinessin2020givesSNDRsomeoftheeasiestmargincompsinthegroup.Further,itsbelow-peervaluationremainsattractive.1.Large,diversifiedtruckingcompanywithstrong,stablemanagementteam2.Technologyfocusshouldhelpdriveoperatingsuperiority(Questsystem)aswellaslongertermcompetitiveadvantage(intelligenttrucks)1.Truckingcycleisdeeplycyclicalandmacrovisibilityremainspoor2.DiversificationisagoodthingbutourLTviewonIntermodalandLogisticsissomewhatbearishWebelieveTFIIoffersanattractiveentrypointforahighqualityasset-righttransportationbusiness.Thecompany'srollupstrategyhasdrivenimpressivereturnsoverthelastdecade,andwhileleverageappearshighversuspeers,webelievethelevelissustainable.WithamplewhitespaceforaccretiveM&A,weseeroomformultipleexpansiontowarditspeers,closingamulti-turndiscountthatdrivesourOverweightrating.1.ContinuedM&Aaccretion(notincludedinMse)coulddrivesignificantupsidetoourmodeliffullFCFdeployment2.AsthelargestTLcarrierinCanada,TFIservestobenefitfromacontinuedpushtowardintelligenttrucking(givenbalancesheetcapacity)1.Acquisitionunderctaintymaycauseinvestorstoawardadiscounttostock.Ifadealfallsthrough/weakexecution,storycanbenegativelyaffected.WeviewTSPasaleaderincommercialAVtrucking,withaccesstoan$800bn+TAMinUSaloneandrelativelyfewcompetitors,whichitlookstobeleading.Thecompanyhasaclearandsomewhatbinarycatalystaheadofitinthe"DriverOut"testbutoncesuccessfullycleared,theeventpathtocommerciallaunchin2024isstraightforwardandthevaluepropositionoftheproduct(60%+savingsontruckop.costs+adjacentgains)isclear.Therisk-rewardiswidebutata4:1ratio,isstronglyskewedtotheupside.Fornow,TSPistheonlynon-hardware,services-drivenpure-playonAVdrivinginthepublicmarkets,certainlyincommercialtruckingbutlikelyincludingpassengercars,too.1.Marketdoesnotapplyassteepofanexecutiondiscount2.Commercialproductionrampsfasterthanweexpect3.Marketconsolidationaccelerates&pricingpowerisevenstronger1.DriverOuttestfails2.MarketappliesalargerexecutiondiscountuntilDriverOutorsomeexecutiondiscountpersistsafterDriverOut3.Competitorlaunchesasuperiorproduct(incl.L5)/getstocommercialproductionfasterWehaveabearishoutlookonseveralendmarketsincludingintermodalandcoal.WealsoworryaboutPSRimplementationduringapotentialmacroslowdownandhighinvestorexpectationsonLTsustainableOR.WhileUNP’smgmt.teamishighlyaccomplished,revenueheadwindsmayoverwhelm.1.Franchiseishighlydiverseandrelativelydefensive(PRBcoal,longerlengthofhaulintermodal,andMXexposure)2.VerystrongoperatorbehindCanadianrails3.PSRturnaroundimprovesmargins1.Thoughdefensivevs.theEasternrails,UNPstillhashighcoalandautoexposure2.•Westernrailpeersandtrucksbecomemorecompetitivewhichfurtherclosesgapbetweenpriceandinflation3.PSRexecutionriskWeseecompetitivesecularthreatstotheParcelbusinessasatriplethreatof(1)InsourcingbyeCommercegiants(2)Omnichannelshiftenablinglastmilecompetitionfrommid-sizeretailersand(3)Platformizationofsmall-shippervolumes.Together,thesetrendscoulderodereturnsintheB2Cspace,whichhasbeenahugedriverofgrowthforthelegacyparcelsinrecentyears.Despiteitsstrongoperatingmetrics,UPScouldbemoreatriskofdisruptiongivenitslargerB2Cbusiness(andAMZNexposure),fewerself-helpinitiativesthanFDXandmoreexpensivevaluation.1.AstrongbalancesheetwithleadingROICandFCF2.Industryleadingpositionandstrongoperatingqualitycontinuestodriveindustry-leadingmargins3.Valuationisrelativelyattractivevs.U.S.peersbasedon1.MostexposedtopotentiallygrowingcompetitionintheParcelspace2.Exposedtomacrorisk,especiallyintheGroundbusiness3.AbsolutevaluationhigherthanFDX2022willbeapivotalyearforUSXastheyjugglethecontinuedrolloutofVariant,thetransitionofLogisticstoagrowthplatformandthepotentialendofthecyclein2H22.WhilewecontinuetobelieveinthestoryandtheVariantopportunity,thebigresetandcycleriskmeanthatitappearsunlikelythatUSXwilldemonstrateits$1normalizedEPSpotentialanytimesoon.Inthemeanwhile,themanagementteamhasstatedthattheyarerunningthebusinessforthelongtermvs.quarterlyresults(whichistherightcall)butprobablyimpliesthatthestockremainsrangeboundinthe$4-6rangeforthemediumterm.1.Strongfranchise,#5marketpositionandsegmentfootprintmakeUSXabeneficiaryofTLmarketstructuralstrength2.PotentialtoclosetheORgapvs.peersasoperatingexecutionandmarketconditionsimprove1.Truckingcycleisdeeplycyclicalandmacrovisibilityremainspoor2.HigherthanpeerleveragecouldweighoninvestorsentimentintheeventofamacrodownturnWERN'shighDedicatedexposure(60%oftruckingbusiness)providesthemrelativestabilityanddefensivenessamongTLpeersgivenLTcontractsandrelativelystickypricing.However,thisdoesnotmeanWERNcannotcapitalizeoncyclicalupsidefromdemandimprovementaswellasregulatorydrivensupplytightnessinthecomingyears.WealsobelieveWERNcanbeafastfollowerinthetrucktechnologyrace.1.AsoneofthelargestTLswecover,WERNisascaleandtruckingtechnologyplay2.Largededicatedsegmenthelpsneartermdefensibility3.Benefitfromtighteningcapacityduetoregulatorydrivensupplyrationalization1.Macroweaknessleadstolowerrates,lowermiles,andhigheremptymiles2.TruckingcycledeeplycyclicalandvisibilityremainspoorThe“new”XPOisarelativelyrarecombinationofasset-heavyLTLcombinedwithasset-lightbrokerageandaEuropeanbusiness.Therangeofpeerquality/multiplesisverywideanditmaybeawhilebeforemarketdeterminesXPO’strueplaceonitsnewblock.Furtherassetsales/spinslaterthisyearwillsimplifythestoryintoapure-playLTL.1.•Exposuretoseculargrowthinmultipleoutsourcedtransportationmarketsbyleveragingtheuseoftechnology2.Potentialtoreachindustry-leadingLTLmargins3.SOTPstrategycouldunlocksignificantvalue1.SOTP/breakupstrategycouldresultinshare-lossandvaluedestruction2.Executionrisk/Keymanrisk3.Relativelyhighleveragevs.peersthoughFCFisdefensive-5%0%5%10%P0%20%40%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%50-2-10123456-1012345670%0%0%0%0%0% 0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0% 9%8% 9%8%5%3%3%2%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%-4%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%3%3%2%2%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%-1%-1%-2%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%-1%-1%-1%-2%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%0%4%1%1%4%1%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%CTCT10-YrHist.CurrentCurrentBasedBasedon8.7x8.7x 10-YrHist.CurrentBasedon93%93%%55%46%79%84%135%133%-1060%43%33%712%97%142%2x1x0xYTD3QTDWeek38CoalMerchandiseAgProductsForestEconomicallyIntermodalincl.Auto&ProductsSensitive147101316192225283134374043464952 663134374043464952$0$0LTMEnding2Q222Q2260%0$03.0$5,8$5,857$5,70793%NSCCNRCSXIndustryAvg.UNPQ2,0221,935,902QQAvgAvgLTMEndingQQ66,4390UNPIndustryAvgCNRCSXNSC6.405.656.71CSXIndustryNSCCNRUNPAverage00%106.76.7%6.3%232423UNPCNRNSCCSX0%0%0%0%0%0%$0$0CPKSUCSXUNPNSCAllRailsCNRBNICNRUNPNSCAllRailsBNICPKSUCSX4747%44%CSXIndustryWt.NSCCNRUNPAvg.9%8%SCCNR$1,772tryAvgCNRUNPNSCCSXNSCIndustryAvgCNR0%0%0%0%0%0%$0UNPKSUCNRAllRailsCSXCPBNINSC15%10%7%8%UNPIndustryWt.NSCCNRCSXAvg.27%NPCSXCNRUNPNSCIndustryAvg.CSX$3,438UNPCNRIndustryAvgNSCCSX JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec12.010.0 CNINSCUNPCSX000%0.03001544C$32,366$25,114$31,447$31,302SCUNPCSXCNR64R82 0.00%272829303132333435363738 CSXUNPCNRNSC5%KSUCPCSXNSC0%10%0%10%0%CoalAutosMerchandiseEconomicallyForestAgProductsIntermodalincl.Auto&SensitiveProducts5%4%0%0%QAQAQe4QeFYe20%10% 0%0%2%0%kAgProductsAutosIntermodalEconomicallyMerchandiseForestCoalSensitiveincl.Auto&ProductsQAQA3Qe4Qe-2% t0%0%0%0%incl.Auto&l2%2%4%QAQAQe4Qe2%2%-4%29%-28%-25%0%0%-2%-1%-2%-1%CoalAutosMerchandiseForestAgProductsEconomicallyIntermodalincl.Auto&ProductsSensitiveQAQAQe4QeFYeQAQAQe4QeFYe2emandDividedcrementalTruckloadSupplyemandDividedcrementalTruckloadSupplyly050/20/20sesBDofadg-b24-Sep12-Feb26-Feb12-Marl27-Aug10-Sep24-Sepc12-Feb26-Feb-b24-Sep12-Feb26-Feb12-Marl27-Aug10-Sep24-Sepc12-Feb26-Feb12-Mar27-Aug10-Sep24-Sep24-Sep24-Sep00Avg(2011-21)2022012-Feb26-Feb12-Mar12-Feb26-Feb12-Mar27-Aug10-Sep900Avg0 g g 000700%600%500%700%600%500%400%300%200%100% 0020%15%10% 20%15%10% --0.%-.3%%1.3%-0.2%.349.0%8.Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22 YYCLHS543210 8.9%Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-220%0%0%0%65432100%31.2%33.2%10% 0%31.2%33.2%10% 37.2%l ExpenditureIndexvgo%o%hange()YYCLHSS8642015%10% 15%10% 15%10% 15%10% 20%15%10% 15%10% 15%10% 15%10% 15%10% 20%15%10% 20%10% eYYCLTLNSAL-LHSeYYCLTLNSAL-LHSRHSgeTLNSALoadsRHS20%10% YYCSTLNSAL-LHSSmallTLNSALoadsYYCSTLNSAL-LHSSmallTLNSALoadsRHSgSmallTLNSALoadsRHS20%15%10% angeinDryVanNSALoadsLHSSNSALoadsRHS30%20%10% ads YYCRNSAL-LHS 30%20%10% 20%10% 0$0$075%75%0%$2,741QQJBHTSNDRTFIIWERNHTLDQQJBHTSNDRTFIIWERNHTLD6.8%JBHTTFIIWERNKNX$0$0$70,491002JBHTTFIIWERNSNDRKNX8,2508,286KNXSNDRWERNTFIIJBHT.25%-0% 30%5% 5%0%CWT)$510% S1994199820022006201020142018202215.0%10.0% 50%40%30%20%10% 1994199820022006201020142018202210% gesYYCLHTLW-LHS06201020142018202220%15%10% YYCL-HLTLW-YYCL-HLTLW-LHS1994199820022006201020142018202230%20%10% YYCPW-LHS))994199820022006201020142018202280%60%40%20%10% qChg20%15%10% 4%24%2%0%0%-0%-%5064200%0%0%0%0%0%Average60%40%20% 60%40%20% 60%40%20% 987654321060%40%20% 6420864206420864208642086420777730%20%10% 30%20%10% 70%50%30%10%864205015%10% 15%10% 50% 9876543 %74%%74%Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-220%Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22199820022006201020142018202250) )gTotalBusinessRHS) )gTotalBusinessRHS 43210-120%15%10% 20%15%10% 40%30%20%10% 40%30%20%10% pg.%0%%0%80%60%42%4%80%60%40%20% 86420 0%40%30%20%10% 40%30%20%10% 80%60%40%20% 86420543210-1%6420%%%%40%30%20%10% S60%40%20% 886420642050%30%10%))60%40%20% YYCYYC886420Current50%40%30%20%10% 886420777715%10% 15%10% entStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY10036USA.AnalystCertification