BIS-中央银行家的演讲-加布里埃尔·马克卢夫介绍性声明-财政、公共支出和改革联合委员会

BIS-Centralbankers'speechesGabrielMakhlouf:Introductorystatement-JointOireachtasCommitteeonFinance,PublicExpenditureandReform,andiseachOpeningstatementbyMrGabrielMakhloufGovernoroftheCentralBankofIreland,etheJointOireachtasNationalParliamentCommitteeonFinancePublicExpenditureandReformandTaoiseachHeadofParliamentDublinJanuary2023.***GoodafternoonChairman,Committeemembers.dtodaybyDeputyGovernorVasileiosMadourosandDirectorofConsumerProtectionColmKincaid.Wewelcometheopportunitytoappearbeforeyou.nbygivingabriefoverviewoftheeconomicoutlookbeforediscussingthechangingmacrofinancialenvironmentinIrelandandourregulatoryprioritiesfortheyearaheadIalsowanttotouchonsomeoftheissuesthattheCommitteehasindicateditwouldliketodiscusstoday.ookkingbackonthefactorsdominatingeconomicactivityincludedRussiasunjustifiedwaragainstUkraineanditspeople,theenergycrisis,risinginflation,thestateoflabourmarketsandsupplychains,andtheongoingimpactofChina'sapproachtomanagingthepandemic.gaheadthemostrecenteurosystemstaffprojectionspublishedinDecembershowadeclineintheoutlookfortheEuroArea,withmorepersistentinflationandweakergrowth.TheEuroAreahasfacedanumberofinflationaryshocksinthepasttwoyears,frompandemicrelatedsupplychaindisruptionsaswellasstrongdemandoncerestrictionswerelifted,tosharprisesinenergyandfoodpricesduetotheRussia'saggression.InflationwaspercentinDecemberdownfrompercentinNovember,mainlyduetofallingenergycostsTheoutlookisforadeclineto6.3percentin2023andpercentin24reflectingmoderatingenergyinflationandtheimpactoftheECB'smonetarypolicydecisions.icytetherecenteasingofinflationitremainstoohighHighandvolatileinflationentailslargecostsfortheeconomyandsocietyasawhole.ThesharpincreaseinthecostoflivingoverthepastyearhasresultedinanerosionofingstandardsHighinflationcanalsoleadtolowerinvestmentharmingfuturegrowthBIS-Centralbankers'speechesandeconomicpotentialAndtheimpactofinflationhasnotbeenfeltuniformlyacrossthepopulationwiththegroupsmostimpactedbeingthosethatspendmoreoftheirincomeonenergyandfood,suchaslower-incomehouseholds.Areturntopricestability–thatis,arateofinflationin-linewithour2percenttargetoverthemediumtermisnecessaryforastableeconomicenvironmenttosupportlong-termgrowth.Asinterestratesaretheprimarytooltofightinflation,mycolleaguesontheECB'sGoverningCouncilandIstartedraisingourkeypolicyratesinJulylastyear.ThesearenowatpercentOurprimarymandateispricestabilityandwearedeterminedtoachieveourinflationtargetbyaligningaggregatedemandmorecloselywithaggregatesupplyconditionsintheeuroareaeconomyasawhole.isingthepolicyratealsosignalsourcommitmenttopricestabilityItsendsaclearmessagethatwewillnotallowinflationtostayabove2percentandhelpstocontaininflationexpectationsguardingagainsttheemergenceofselfreinforcinginflationdynamicsandtacklingtheriskofapersistentincreaseininflationexpectations.Weneedtocontinuetoincreaseratesatourmeetingnextweek–bytakingasimilarsteptoourDecemberdecisionsandalsoatourMarchmeeting,althoughourfuturepolicydecisionsneedtocontinuetobedatadependentgiventheprevailinguncertainty.TosumupinflationremainsfartoohighandinterestrateswillhavetorisesignificantlyatasteadypacetoreachlevelssufficientlyrestrictivetoensureatimelyreturnofinflationtoourpercentmediumtermtargetBringinginflationbacktotargetisessentialforthewellbeingofoureconomyandcommunity.okTurningtothedomesticoutlookourmostrecentQuarterlyBulletindescribed2022asayearoftwohalveswithstronggrowthinthefirsthalfandslowingconsiderablyinthesecond.1Weexpectthat023islikelytobeamirrorofthisyear,withoureconomycontinuingtoadjusttotheenergyshockbutastronglabourmarketandmoderatinginflationdrivingarecoveryinhouseholdrealincomesreversingthetrendlaterintheyearandinto2024.Whilethedomesticeconomywaspredictedtoslowconsiderably,ourforecastsstillpointedtopositivealbeitlowergrowthforasawholeWewillbeupdatingtheserojectionsinournextQuarterlyBulletininearlyMarchesticheadlineinflationcontinuestobehighatpercentinDecemberbutmoderatingenergyprices,particularlygasprices,pointstoanimprovingoutlook.OurexpectationremainsthatinflationpeakedinQof2andwillmoderateastheyearprogressesassumingnofurthershocks–supportingconsumerspendingandoveralleconomicactivityastheyearprogresses.cialenvironmentBIS-Centralbankers'speechesThereisnodoubtthatthemacrofinancialenvironmentremainsverychallengingbothdomesticallyandglobally.Overthepasttwelvemonthsmanyassetpriceshavefallensharplyyieldshaverisen,andmarketvolatilityhasincreasedsubstantiallyThefragilityofcertainmarketsanditsparticipantsparticularlyinthenonbankfinancialsector–wasmadealltooapparentbythegiltmarketdisruptionintheUKinSeptember.Theinflationarychallengesarebeingexperiencedmostacutelyasshockstopeople'srealincomesandanerosionoftheirlivingstandards.Theprofitmarginsofbusinessesparticularlythesmallerbusinesseswithlessscopetopassoncostincreasestocustomerswillsufferduetothesizeoftheirenergybillsandothercostsaswellasfallingrevenuesascustomersreducediscretionaryspending.Takentogetherthesepressureshavethepotentialtoleadtoanincreaseinrepaymentchallengesforsomeborrowers.3OverallriskstotheIrishfinancialsystemhaverisen.However,thereareanumberofreasonstobelievethereisresilienceinthesystemtomeettheserisks.Whilesomemortgagecustomersareexperiencingdirectlytheeffectsofourinterestratedecisions,thereissubstantialresilienceacrossthemortgagemarket.evelsofindebtednessagradualshifttowardsfixedrateborrowingpandemicsavingsandsubstantialhousingequity,areallensuringthatthemortgagemarketasawholehassignificantcapacitytoabsorbshocks.nintheSMEsectorwherecostincreaseswillseverelytightenprofitmarginsformanyindebtednesshasfallencontinuallyforadecadereducingtheriskofmacroeconomicspilloversbetweenthefinancialsectorandtherealeconomy.ioritiesWecontinuetoengagewiththebankingsector,otherlenders,insurersandinvestmentfirmstoensurethefinancialsystemplaysitsproperroleinsupportingtheeconomyandusersoffinancialservicesBanksandotherlendersinparticularhaveakeyroletoplayyProvidingthelendinganddepositservicesrequiredtosupportawell-functioningeconomy;Supportingcustomerswhomaybeexperiencingdifficultiesinlightofthechangedmacro-economicenvironment,includinginparticularcustomersinorfacingarrearsonexistingloans;andDevelopingandimplementingstrategieswhichpreservelongtermsustainabilityandfirms'capacitytocontinuetosupporttheeconomythroughthisperiodandintothefuture.ThefinancialsectorcontinuestochangerapidlyinparticularthroughdigitalisationandtechnologicalinnovationTheentranceofnewtypesofparticipantsintheIrishfinancialBIS-Centralbankers'speechessystemandtheevolutionofexistingsectorsarebringingrapidevolutiontothelandscapeforfinancialusersandfirms.Inresponse,wearecontinuingtoevolveourregulatoryapproach.Tosupportfinancialwellbeing,ourregulationwillcontinuetobeoutcomes-focusedandfollowsixprinciples:forwardlooking,connected,proportionate,predictable,transparentandagile.Particularmilestonesinourregulatoryworkprogrammethisyearinclude:ConsultingandengagingwidelyonthedevelopmentofourconsumerprotectionframeworkandontheoperationalisationoftheIndividualAccountabilityFramework;Continuingtoprogressactionsatadomesticandinternationallevelontheglobalsystemicrisksinthefundssector,aswellasenhancingthegovernance,oversightandinvestoroutcomesinthesector;andImplementingnewEUregulationsondigitaloperationalresilienceandmarketsincrypto.rsupervisoryprioritiesincludetheassessmentandmanagementofriskstofinancialandoperationalresiliencecontinuingtodriveforfairoutcomesforconsumerandinvestorsoverseeingthewithdrawalofUlsterBankandKBCfromtheIrishmarketanddetectingandsanctioningmarketabuse.WewillinparticularworkwiththeDepartmentofFinanceonthenextstepsfromtheRetailBankingReviewandtherecommendationsoftheIMF'sFinancialSystemAssessmentProgramme.WenoteandwelcometheJointOireachtasCommitteesrecentreportonBankingandarecurrentlystudyingitsrecommendations.Letmetouchonacoupleofissuesbeforeweturntoyourquestions.ConsolidationTheCentralBankcontinuestoengageactivelywiththefirmsaspartofitssupervisoryprogrammeonretailbankconsolidation.Wehavemadecleartotheretailbanksthatthebankexitsandinparticularthelarge-scalemigrationofcustomerbankaccountsfromUlsterBankandKBC,musthappeninlinewithcustomerneedsandexpectations.TheaccountmigrationtransferofloansandotherassetsandwindingdownofthebusinessofUlsterBankandKBCisacomplexprocess,butitisontrackandthesystemisworkingwelltogetherandrespondingappropriately.Ourlatestaccountmigrationstatisticspublishedyesterdayindicatethatatend-Decemberpercentofcurrentaccountswereeitherclosedorinactive.4WeexpectallretailbankstohaveplansinplacetomanagetheimpactofthebroaderchangesandconsolidationintheretailbankingsectorinIreland.Itistheresponsibilityoftheindividualbankstoensurethattheyareputtingtheircustomerfirst,ensuringfairtreatmentofcustomersandthatcustomersunderstandwhatthechangesmeanforthem.BIS-Centralbankers'speechesAsaregulatorwerecognisethatconsumersneedavailabilityandchoiceofproductsandservicestomeettheirneedsTheretailbankingmarketneedstofunctioneffectivelytodeliverthisForbankingasforotherfinancialservices,weseeregulation,activeconsumerswitchinginnovationtransparencyandcompetitionasbeingkeytoeffectivemarketfunctioning.InterestratesandtheIrishmortgagemarketLetmeturntotheimpactofinterestraterisesontheIrishmortgagemarketPartofthetransmissionofmonetarypolicy–essentialtoensurethatinflationreturnstotarget–iswhatwenowseehappeningtomortgageheECBpolicyratearetransmittedovertimetohouseholdsandfirmsowingratesviathefinancialsectorLendersandcreditservicingfirmsinIrelandhaveincreasedratesontheirmortgagesinrecentmonths.etailbankswhoprovidepercentofallprincipalresidencePDHmortgageshavetodateincreasedfixedratesforneworswitchingcustomers,andhavenotincreasedtheirvariableratesNon-banklendersandservicingfirmshaveraisedvariablerates,includingsomeratesatthehigherendofthemarket.AndofcoursecustomersontrackerproductshaveseentheirrateincreaseautomaticallyinlinewiththeECBrate.Theimpactoftheserateincreasesonborrowerswilldependonacombinationoftherateincreaseitselfandthefinancialandpersonalcircumstancesoftheindividualborrower,betheyaprivateindividual,asmallbusinessoralargecorporatebody.Wehavebeenclearwiththefirmsweregulatethattheyneedtobeproactiveinsupportingtheircustomerstonavigatethesechanges.Wewillcontinuetoengageactivelywithregulatedfirmsontheirapproachestoincreasinginterestratesandmanagingtheimpactofinflation,andhowtheysupporttheircustomersinlinewiththeregulatoryframeworkandourexpectations.Asyouknow,thesameregulatoryprotectionsapplywhetheraborrower'sloaniswithabankorwithanon-banklenderorservicingfirm.TheCentralBankdoesnothaveastatutoryroleinapprovingtheratesthatmortgagelenderschargeontheirloansThesearecommercialdecisionsforthelendersthemselvesbutwedoexpectfirmsto:Havetheresourcesandarrangementsinplacetoassessapplicationsfromexistingandneworswitchingborrowersinamannerthatistimelyandbasedonprudentlendingstandardsappliedconsistentlyacrossallapplicants;Havefit-for-purposearrangementsinplacetoanticipateanddealwithcustomersinorfacingarrears.Thisincludescaseswhereconsumersmayfacearrearsduetoanincreaseintheinterestrateontheirmortgage,whilerecognisingthatwithincreasingcostsoflivingdrivenbyinflation,thisisjustonefactorcurrentlyaffectingpeople'srepaymentcapacity;andBIS-Centralbankers'speechesProactivelyassesstherisksandconsumerimpactthatcommercialdecisions,includingrisinginterestrates,mayposetoborrowersandhaveanactionplaninplacetomitigatesuchrisks.nTheoutlookforwillcontinuetobecharacterisedbyhighuncertainty.TheCentralBankwillcontinuetofocusonmaintainingmonetaryandfinancialstabilityandensuringthefinancialsystemworksforconsumersandthewidereconomy.Vas,ColmandIarehappytotakeyourquestions.https/www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/qb-HYPERLINK"https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/qb-archive/2