案例1国际关系中的层次分析法

案例1.国际关系中的“层次分析法”Case20.Thelevel-of-analysisininternationalRelationsAsatoolofstudyinginternationalpolitics,thelevel-of-analysisapproachaimsto“takeapicturesfromdifferentdistances”1,butitdoesnotprescribethenumberoflevelsorhowtodifferentiatelevels.Researcherscanmaketheirowndecisionaccordingtherealityoftheobjectsbeingstudied:onelevel,twolevelsorevenmulti-level.ItisgenerallythoughtthatKennethWaltz,theConstructivistrealist,startedthelevelofanalysisapproach.2InhisbookMan,theStateandWarwritteninthe1950s,heusesathree-foldtypologytoanalyzetheoriginofwar.Heregardsthethree-foldtypologyasthree“images”ofinternationalrelations:humannature,theinternalsocietyofthenationstateandthestructureoftheinternationalsystem.Inhisview,theanarchyofinternationalpolitics(thethirdimage)explainsthecauseofwaringeneralbutdoesnotexplainaspecificwar.Althoughtheothertwoimagesareforcesthatdeterminepolicyandcanexplaintherealreasonbehindaspecificwar,howeverwithoutthethirdimage(theinternationalpoliticalframework),theirimportanceoroutcomecannotbedetermined.3TheconclusionofWaltzshowsthataspecificcaseofinternationalrelationsisofteninfluencedbythecommonforceofvariablesatthemicroandmacrolevels.Ifthesevariablesareselectedas“levels”(images)andanalyzed,theresearchframeworkbecomesclearandrich.Thethree-foldapproachofWaltzhasthusbecomethemostfrequentlyusedlevel-of-analysis.Forexample,whenanalyzingtheoriginoftheColdWar,MarcA.Genestexaminedtheinternationalsystematthattime,states(theUSandtheSovietUnion)andstateleaders(theUSPresidentTrumanandSovietleaderStalin).HethinksthattheColdWarhappenedprimarilybecauseoftheturmoilintheinternationalsituationafterthewars.TheformerpowersweremostlynolongersowhileonlytheUSandtheSovietUnionwerethestrongestandinfactformedthepost-warinternationalsystemdominatedbythetwosuperpowers.Moreover,thedemocraticAmericaandthecommunistSovietUnionhadtotallydifferentpolitico-economicstructureswhichunderlaytotheirconflict.Asforindividuals,TrumanandStalinhaddeepdistrustofeachother.Differencesbetweenthetwopartiesunavoidablyledtocompetitionwhichinturnhighlightedthosedifferencesandmadebothleadersmorefrightenedandguarded.4Undoubtedly,thelevel-of-analysisapproachofWaltzisofgreatsignificance.ButitisAmericanpoliticalscientistDavidSingerwhodiscussedthelevel-of-analysisapproachaspartofthemethodologyofinternationalrelations.5MarcA.Genest,ConflictAndCooperation:EvolutionTheoriesofInternationalRelations,p.3.Ibid.IverB.Neumann,OleWaever(eds.),TheFutureofInternationalRelations:MastersintheMaking(trans.XiaoFeng,ShiQuan,Beijing:PekingUniversityPress,2003),p.97.MarcA.Genest,ConflictAndCooperation,p.5.QinYaqing,“CengciFenxifayuGuojiGuanxiYanjiu,”[LevelofAnalysisandInternationalRelationsResearch]Ouzhou[ChineseJournalofEuropeanStudies],1998(3),p.5.InhisfamousTheLevel-of-AnalysisProbleminInternationalRelations,heraisedtwomainlevels:theinternationalsystemandthestate.Hethoughtthatastate'sforeignpolicyisaffectedbythesetwolevels:Theinternationalsystemlevelonamacrolevelshowstheinternationalrelationsasawhole,thatis,theoverallglobalpatternsofbehavioramongstatesandthelevelofinterdependenceamongthem.Thenation-statelevelonamicrolevelreflectsconditionsandprocesseswithinstatesthataffectforeignpolicychoices.6Singercomparedthetwowithflowersandgarden,rocksandquarry,treesandforest,housesandneighborhood,carsandtrafficjam,delinquentsandgang,legislatorsandlegislature?AfterSinger,researchersfurtherdevelopedthelevelofanalysisapproach.ThereappearedJamesRosenau'sfive-foldanalysis(individual,role,government,society,andtheinternationalsystem),BruceRucsettandHarveyStar'ssix-foldanalysis(individualdecision-makers,roleofdecision-makers,structuralofthenationalgovernment,domesticsociety,internationalrelations,worldsystem).8Althoughthelevelofanalysisapproachisgettingmoreandmoredetailedandsystematic,howmanylevelsareappropriatedependsonthenatureoftheobjectofinterest.System-levelState-level4ThenatureoftheworldHowcountriesIndividual-level*J[[limancharacteristicsmakeforeignpolicy【教学目的】本案例旨在使学生掌握一种观察和解读国际问题的基本方法，通过归纳不同层面上的要素，条理清晰、步步深入地分析某个具体的国际关系案例。【思考题】你觉得要解释清楚一个国际关系事件，一般需要使用几个层次？如何用层次分析法解释伊