银行业：香港本地银行价值在提升

aimer31Jan2023价值在提升gFAhtiseccom热点速评FlashAnalysis(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)投资建议：H股香港本地银行的股价上升幅度落后于其他子板块，我们认为股价尚未反映与内地通关及复常等积极因素，同时地产融资仍在边际改善中，我们认为香港本地银行在信贷增长及资产质量改善方面有望持续发力。建议关注恒生银行、中银香港。H股中的招商银行估值已经在FY23PB1.2x左右，建议回调时再低吸。行情回顾：2023.1.9-1.29，覆盖的H股银行算术平均+5.0%，恒生指数+6.1%，跑输1.1pct。涨幅前三包括招商银行、汇丰银行、中信银行。覆盖的34家A股银行算术平均+1.1%，沪深300+5.0%，上证综指+3.4%，分别跑输3.9pc和2.3pct。涨幅前三名为招商银行、无锡银行和江阴银行，跌幅前三名为成都银行、常熟银行和杭州银行。其中股份行(+2.0%)和农商行(2.4%)平均涨幅超过行业平均涨幅，国有大行(+0.2%)和城商行(+0.7%)，不及行业平均涨幅。南北向资金监测：2023.1.9-1.29南向H股持股增加最多的是工商银行、农业银行、中国银行，持股减少最多的是建设银行、中信银行、邮储银行。上周北向A股持股增加最多的是农业银行、邮储银行、中国银行，持股减少最多的是北京银行、长沙银行和宁波银行。信贷展望：我们重申1/9周报中的信贷展望，预计1月信贷投放量偏弱，1季度有望超预期。预计1月信贷偏弱。原因包括感染率对劳动力供给进而影响工程施工开工和企业融资提款，基数原因，春节提早，以及存在项目预支情况。这一点在对国有大行的调研中也得到了确认。预计1季度信贷投放有望超预期。主要考虑到房地产融资利好以及刺激需求的政策不断加码出台，以及感染恢复后的消费复苏叠加银行机构对消费贷的优惠推广。调研中我们获悉，银行对地产的融资总量确有改善，但依然聚焦优质房地产企业融资和并购项目，考察项目所处地理位置、销售情况和建设情况。内地宏观经济状况：消费复苏各线城市同比回暖，但难言修复至疫情前水平。商品房成交面积同比跌幅扩大，土地成交面积和溢价率均继续下降。基建相关指标在节前也较弱，节后或有所回暖。量的方面而言，出口疲弱，进口相对平稳，进出口运价也都再度回落。香港宏观经济状况：香港与内地通关，彭博调查显示，经济学家上调对香港2023年经济增长预测至3.3%，去年11月份预测为2.7%。李家超称目标在2023年内取消所有防疫限制，带领香港迈向全面复常。香港2022年10-12月失业率回落0.2pct至3.5%，连续8个月下跌。财政司长陈茂波指出有信心见到香港经济于Q2强劲反弹，访港内旅客会持续上升。资金面紧平衡：但市场利率依然小幅上行。央行的公开市场操作，以及税期渐近尾声，共同缓解了资金偏紧的局面。1.28-29节后净回笼3480亿。WIND数据显示2月3日逆回购到期量2.3万亿。因此央行市场操作量的方面来看，预计处于紧平衡的状态。价：1.9-29，1年期国债收益率上升5bp至2.15%，10年期国债收益率上升8bp至2.92%，10Y-1Y期限利差小幅扩大。1月9日至今，银行间质押式回购利率，7天期限下行9bp，其余期限(1天、14天、21天、1个月、3个月)均有上行。同业存单3个月和6个月期限利率变化不大。1年期利率上行5bp，其中农商行上行10bp，股份行上行7bp，国有银行上行6bp。231Jan202321.442.02.42.03.47.0-1.92.02.75.03.43.042.02.42.03.47.0-1.92.02.75.03.43.00.60.3周度行情回顾2023/1/92023/1/2922023/1/92023/1/292023/1/22023/1/6.72022/12/232022/12/32022/12/232022/12/30NameIndustrialandCommercialBankofChinaAgriculturalBankofChinaBankofChinaChinaConstructionBankBankofCommunicationsPostalSavingsBankofChinaChinaMerchantsBankChinaEverbrightBankCompanyChinaCiticBankCorporationHSBCHoldingsPLCStandardCharteredPLCBOCHongKong(Holdings)HangSengBankTheBankofEastAsia5.44.00.7 0.8 0.7 -0.6-0.2-0.6 - 0.9 0.8 2.52.09.53.71288.HK3988.HK0939.HK3328.HK1658.HK3968.HK6818.HK0998.HK0005.HK2888.HK2388.HK0011.HK0023.HK6.1HSI6.1HSI.HIHSIreturn2022/12/192022/12/262023/1/22023/1/9TickerName2022/12/232022/12/302023/1/62023/1/296013986012886019889IndustrialandCommercialBankofChinaLimitedAgriculturalBankofChinaLimitedBankofChinaLimitedChinaConstructionBankCorporation0.7601328BankofCommunications0.76013288000300.SH000001.SHPostalSavingsBankofChina8000300.SH000001.SHSOBsaverageCSI300SHComposite3.02.9601166SHComposite3.02.9601166IndustrialBankCo.,Ltd. -1.9-3.2-3.9 -3.2-3.2-3.9 4.7-3.7-3.2-3.9-4.000ChinaCiticBankCorporationLimited006018180.3ChinaEverbrightBank06018180.311.1-0.72.4Ping11.1-0.72.4601916000300.SH000001.SHChinaZheshang601916000300.SH000001.SHJSBsaverageCSI300SH1.02.71.01.80.6002141.5600919 9601833.20.90029488601187BankofNingboCo.,Ltd.BankofNanjingCo.,Ltd.BankofJiangsuCo.,Ltd.BankofShanghaiCo.,Ltd.BankofHangzhouCo.,Ltd.BankofChengduCo.,Ltd.BankofChangshaCo.,Ltd.BankofQingdaoCo.,Ltd.BankofXi'anCo.,Ltd.BankofSuzhouCo.,Ltd.XiamenBankCo.,LtdBankofChongqingCo.,Ltd2.2601665000300.2.2601665000300.SH000001.SH3.2CSI300SHCompositeWuxiRuralCommercialBankCo.,LtdJiangsuCSI300SHCompositeWuxiRuralCommercialBankCo.,LtdJiangsuJiangyinRuralCommercialBankCo.,Ltd.JiangsuChangshuRuralCommercialBankCo.,Ltd.JiangsuSuzhouRuralCommercialBankCo.,LtdJiangsuZhangjiagangRuralCommercialBankCo.,Lt6.1-2.600280780028392.00.31.01.56018252.4ShanghaiRuralCommercialBankCo.,Ltd.Ruralcommercialbanks331Jan20233南向资金er398HK288HK3988HK3328HK6818HKK3HK2888HK2388HK3968HK658HK998HK939HK北向资金ker601288CH601658CH601988CH601818CH600036CH601398CH000001CH600000CH601328CH601998CH601916CH600919CH601009CH601166CH601665CH002839CH601229CH002958CH601825CH601838CH601577CH601187CH002807CH600926CH601963CH600928CH002948CH002966CH601939CH002142CH601128CH601169CHICBC-HABC-HBANKOFCHINA-HBANKCOMM-HCEBBANK-HHOLDINGSPLHANGSENGBANKBANKEASTASIASTANDARDCHARTERBOCHONGKONGHOCMBANK-HPOSTALSAVINGS-HCITICBANK-HCCB-HAGRICULTURAL-ALSAVINGSABANKOFCHINA-ACHINAEVERBRIG-ACHINAMERCHBK-AINDCOMMBK-APINGANBANK-ASHANGPUDONG-ABANKOFCOMMUN-ACHINACITICBK-ACHINAZHESHANG-ABANKOFJIANGS-ABANKOFNANJIN-AINDUSTRIALBANK-AQILUBANKCOL-AJIANGSUZHANGJ-ABANKOFSHANGH-AQINGDAORURAL-ASHANGHAIRURAL-ABANKOFCHENGD-ABANKOFCHANGS-AXIAMENBANKCO-AJIANGSUJIANGY-ABANKOFHANGZH-ABANKOFCHONGQ-ABANKOFXI'AN-ABANKOFQINGDA-ABANKOFSUZHOU-ACHINACONSTBA-ABANKOFNINGBO-AJIANGSUCHANGS-ABANKOFBEIJING-AAmountofHKDmn)90,5146,5352,6803,2823,059107,820462018,4715,8340,318111,915Amountof(Rmbmn)7,7693,8914,8672,43964,3048,78419,9805,2165,5600681005,5443,12114,47907902,7309413,6058874222,04409222,22613,8419062,977ingin21,247,421,8125,842,589,0634,283,897,688671,226,2081,223,767,3541,898,238,1853,612,7233,026,21595,47066,961,786173,948,1441,084,385,1772,758,706,78021,987,248,489oldingin2,665,108,549798,101,3171,513,106,254788,080,3191,570,199,8312,031,684,5921,321,511,473709,666,5281,141,204,886210,838,998367,314,854738,032,258293,331,230807,340,47771,422,92580,966,965452,332,83755,448,863157,952,671252,156,057114,110,15148,894,02399,776,006153,917,46515,668,25261,75220,816,026117,080,387395,590,287416,917,122122,260,273697,891,683ofIssued24.47%9.00%5.12% 1%9.65%9.34%0.18%0.10%0.00%0.62%3.78%5.45%8.52%%ofIssued0.89%7.07%0.71%1.90%7.61%0.75%6.80%2.41%2.90%0.61%5.02%3.32%3.88%3.07%3.73%3.26%0.99%3.41%6.76%5.51%4.59%3.03%2.26%0.00%0.58%6.31%4.62%3.30%HKDmn)801900171322-1,965(Rmbmn)288892474264340-1-192gnge191,318,00085,552,00046,175,00017,376,0001,321,2861,154,355213,40020,400-2,100-6,227,000-6,801,032-8,161,845-12,303,137-388,646,201haregge112,117,27480,280,17654,228,45148,951,60648,171,14045,458,22339,427,39635,728,62633,414,24125,523,69723,163,64722,600,31814,670,15014,121,64911,931,31511,553,3899,991,5889,906,6357,254,3194,553,1944,418,9013,871,5873,686,4732,782,485565,7440-417,486-2,718,748-3,241,366-5,301,460-10,735,855-13,025,884infissued0.22%0.28%0.06%0.05%0.01%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%-0.06%-0.04%-0.08%einofissued0.04%0.11%0.03%0.12%0.23%0.02%0.20%0.12%0.09%0.07%0.14%0.15%0.14%0.07%0.26%0.53%0.07%0.18%0.08%0.12%0.11%0.15%0.17%0.05%0.03%0.00%-0.01%-0.07%-0.03%-0.08%-0.39%-0.06%(1/18/2023)4.26 .83 .964.89 56.8 9.9767.55 6.948.7 5.38 3.74.09(1/20/2023).92 4.9 3.22 41.05 4.3315.13 7.36 4.87 5.07 3.01 7.5210.6617.96 4.29 4.82 6.05 .97 5.9714.36 6.94 5.87 4.2313.28 7.08 3.51 3.48 7.87 5.6333.217.434.27(1/4/2023)4.13 .72 .91 4.68 .45 131.6 9.79 27.2546.15 5.13 3.565(1/6/2023).924.73 3.21 3.0838.384.3414.62 7.344.81 5.04 .92 7.5710.76 4.234.68 5.96 5.9415.13 6.86 5.834.0513.55 6.86 3.49 3.39 7.98 5.6732.637.634.284.04% 2%4.49%2.04%3.60%-2.74% 4%2.58%-1.28%5.53%4.87%5.06%0%0.00%3.59%0.31%0.65%6.96%-0.23%3.49%0.27%1.25%0.60%3.08%-0.66%-0.93%-0.77%1.42%2.99%1.51%2.41%0.51%-5.09%1.17%0.69%4.44%-1.99%3.21%0.57%2.65%-1.38%-0.71%1.78%-2.62%-0.23%431Jan20234APPENDIX1SummaryInvestmentadvice:TheriseinthesharepriceofH-shareHongKonglocalbankslaggedbehindothersub-sectors,webelievethatthesharepricehasnotyetreflectedthepositivefactorssuchasthereturntonormalcyinHongKongandthecustomsclearancewiththeMainland,whilepropertyfinancingisstillinmarginalimprovement,webelievethatHongKonglocalbanksareexpectedtocontinuetomakeeffortsincreditgrowthandassetqualityimprovement.WerecommendfocusingonHSB,BOCHK.ChinaMerchantsBankvaluationinH-shareisalreadyaroundFY23PB1.2x,wesuggesttobuyatlowpricewhenthepullback.MacroandIndustryReview:CreditOutlook:Wereiterateourcreditoutlookfromour1/9weeklyreport,expectingweakJanuaryloanissuance,with1Qtobeatexpectations.Mainlandmacroeconomicconditions:consumptionrecoveryinalltiercitiesreboundedYoY,butitishardtosaythatitisrepairedtopre-epidemiclevels.TheareaofcommercialhousingtransactionsfellatanexpandedrateYoY,andboththeareaoflandtransactionsandpremiumratecontinuedtodecline.Infrastructure-relatedindicatorswerealsoweakerbeforetheholidaysandmaypickupaftertheholidays.Intermsofvolume,exportsdatawereweak,importsdatawererelativelystable,andbothimportandexportfreightratesfellagain.HongKongmacroeconomicconditions:HongKongclearedcustomswiththeMainland,andeconomistsraisedtheirforecastforHongKong'seconomicgrowthto3.3%in2023,comparedwith2.7%forecastinNovemberlastyear,accordingtoBloombergsurvey.LeeKa-chiusaidthegoalistoremoveallanti-epidemicrestrictionswithin2023,leadingHongKongtomovetowardfullrestorationofnormalcy.HongKong'sunemploymentratefellback0.2pctto3.5%inOctober-December2022,downfor8consecutivemonths.FinancialSecretaryPaulChanpointsoutheisconfidenttoseeHongKongeconomyreboundingstronglyinQ2andinboundvisitorstoHongKongwillcontinuetorise.Fundingisintightbalance.Risk:Theeffectofthepolicyislessthanexpected.56下下m789