Accenture+2023年银行业十大趋势

AccentureBankingTop10Trendsfor2023ThegravityofrisingratesForewordThefivekeyforcesofchangeTheOngoingTechnologyTheOngoingTechnologyRevolutionTheMetaverseContinuumSustainabilityReinventionCompaniesaremakingthestrategicdecisiontocontinuouslyreinventthemselvesbydigitallytransformingeverypartoftheirbusinesswithtechnology,data,automationandAI.Theyarebreakingdowninternalsilosandconnectingfunctionsanddataacrossthevaluechain—creatingnewwaysofoperatingandservingcustomersandtheirpeople,anddiscoveringnewbusinessmodelsandgrowthopportunities.Withthisstrategy,bankscansetanewperformancefrontierforthemselves—andfortheindustry.Leadingbanksarecreatingstrongerworkforceswithathree-prongedstrategy:theyaccesstalent,insideandoutsidetheorganization;unlockthepotentialofexistingtalentwithtechnologyandbydevelopingtheirskills;andcreatenewtalentbylookingatpeople’spotentialbeyondtheircurrentskills.Sustainabilityspansenvironmental,social,andgovernance(ESG)issues—fromtransitioningtoazero-carboneconomytohumanrights,andbeyondtoinclusionanddiversity.Whencompaniesandgovernmentsembedsustainabilityintotheiroperations,theycancreaterealvalueandmakeadifference.Thisisafast-evolvingspectrumofdigitally-enhancedworlds,realitiesandbusinessmodels—stretchingfromadigitallayeronrealitytocompletelyvirtualenvironmentsthatofferseveryenterpriseopportunitiesforchangeandgrowth.Banksshouldstarttocreateastrategynowtorealizethebusinesspotentialofthemetaversecontinuumtomorrow.NewtechnologiesandexpandingITaredisruptingallaspectsofbusiness,drivingthenextwavesofinnovationthatarebringingnewapproachesandsolutionstobusinessesineveryindustry.Banksshouldpreparethemselvestoharnessthesenewformsoftechnologyandcomputingforcompetitiveadvantage.Thesefivekeyforcesofchangearemanifestinthetentrendswhichwebelievewillhaveaprofoundinfluenceonbankingin2023andarelikelytocontinuetoshapeanddrivetheindustryformanyyearstocome.BankingTop10Trendsfor20232IntroductionLowrates–banking’sBigBangForcesofchangearereshapingbanking.Thelasttimethebankingindustryexperiencedsteeplyrisingratesoffaverylowbasewasbackin2005—beforethelaunchoftheiPhone,whichseemslikeaneonago.Overthepast17yearslowrateshavehadtheeffectofaBigBang,shatteringthefundamentalequationofbanking(depositsdrivelendingpower),severingtheconnectionsbetweenrelatedofferings,anddramaticallydisruptingvaluationsandmarkets.BankingTop10Trendsfor20233Untilthefinancialcrisisof2008/9,interestratesUntilthefinancialcrisisof2008/9,interestrateswerethegravitationalforcethatkeptbanking’sintegrateddeposit/lendingmodelworkingdependably.Withoutthisgravity,powerfuldistortionsshooktheindustry.Banksweredeprivedofamajorsourceofrevenue,causingthemtoshifttheirfocusfromthetotalityofcustomers’financialneedstoisolatedproductsthatcontinuedtogeneratefees.Thisinturnstrengthenedtheproductsiloswithinmostbanks.Atthesametime,thefintechuniverseexploded.Amultitudeofbrilliantinnovatorswithsky-highvaluationsburstontothescene,awashwithcheapcapitalandprioritizingscaleoverfinancialreturns.Ignoringtime-honoredbusinessmodels,theytargetedonlyparticularpartsofthevaluechain.Theresultwasaneruptionofinnovationandcompetition.Thecustomerexperiencewasimpactedprofoundly.Consumerswantingtotakeadvantageofthenewvaluethatwasbeingcreatedhadtoexpandtheirportfoliooffinancialserviceprovidersandconstructtheirfinancialjourneyusingamix-and-matchofthebestproductsdrawnfromthevarioussilos.Mostofthetrendsshapingbankingin2023areaffected,ifnotactuallycaused,bythereturnofpositiveinterestrates—thegravitythatkeepstheindustryinapredictableorbit.”happens,andthereareweekswhendecadesweeks.Banksarehavingtomanagenotonlymacro-economicandgeopoliticalchange,butalsoprofoundlongerlastingshiftsthataredrivenbytechnologicalinnovation.AtAccentureweareanopportunityforbankstoreimagineandrepositionthemselvesforthefutureWecallthemthefivekeyforcesofchange.Theyarereshapingindustries,breakingdownTheyalsoprovidemuchoftheenergybehindthetrendsthatareaffectingbankingin2023.tMichaelAbbottSeniorManagingDirector–GlobalBankingLeadForMichaelAbbottSeniorManagingDirector–GlobalBankingLeadmeantmoneywaseffectivelyfree—andworthverylittletobanks.Adepositbalanceof$25,000isworth$720ayearinincomewhentherateis3.75%;whenit’s0.25%itearnsonly$29ayear.1BankingTop10Trendsfor20234Someplayerstookthingstotheextreme,creatingmoneyfromnothing:mintingcryptocoinsandNFTs.Thevaluewasintheeyeofthebeholder—untilitwasn’t.Mostofthetrendsshapingbankingin2023areaffected,ifnotactuallycaused,bythereturnofpositiveinterestrates.Gravityhasbeenrestored,andtheconstellationofbankingproductsaredriftingintoamorefamiliarandpredictableorbit.Depositaccountsareonceagainfuelingtheindustryandbalancesheetssuddenlymatteragain.Theyearaheadwon’tbewithoutitssurprisesanddisruption;itdefinitelywon’tbeboring.Therevivalofinterestratesmaynotheraldareturntobusinessasusual,butitwillcertainlybewelcomedbymostbanks.BankingTop10Trendsfor2023HarnessingchangeLeadingbanksrecognizetheyneedtoacceleratechange—notonlytocompetebuttofindnewpathstogrowth.ThefivekeyforcesofchangewhichAccenturehasidentifiedashavingthegreatestimpactonthetransformationoforganizationsandbusinessasawholearegainingmomentum.ForC-suiteslookingtoforgeahead,theseforcesareshowingtheway.5RisingratesRisingratescatalyzeproductinnovationThelow,staticinterestratesthathavedominatedglobalmacroeconomicsforthepastdecadeandahalfmayhavebeenappreciatedbybusinessesandhomeowners,butthebenefitsforbankshavebeenlimited.Depositsgeneratedlittleprofitanddepositorseitherreceivedminimalinterestorevenhadtopaytokeeptheirmoneyinthebank.BankingTop10Trendsfor20236Forthesereasons,risinginterestrateswillbetherocketfuelthatignitesbanks’productinnovation.Bankswillquicklyscraptheirproductsilosandredirecttheirfocustothetotalityoftheircustomers’financialneeds.InnovationwillcomeintheformofofferingssimilartothatofAmazonPrime:apersonalized,integratedsetofproductsandservicesthatdeliveravaluepropositionamplifiedbyamultipliereffect.Theseinnovativeofferingsarelikelytoerodesilosanddrawonbothsidesofthebalancesheet.OneexampleisBankForthesereasons,risinginterestrateswillbetherocketfuelthatignitesbanks’productinnovation.Bankswillquicklyscraptheirproductsilosandredirecttheirfocustothetotalityoftheircustomers’financialneeds.InnovationwillcomeintheformofofferingssimilartothatofAmazonPrime:apersonalized,integratedsetofproductsandservicesthatdeliveravaluepropositionamplifiedbyamultipliereffect.Theseinnovativeofferingsarelikelytoerodesilosanddrawonbothsidesofthebalancesheet.OneexampleisBankofAmerica,whichusesintelligencetowrapatailoredcollectionofdepositandcreditproductsaroundthecustomerandthenoffersanintegratedloyaltyprogramthatrecognizesthetotalvalueofeachcustomer.Bothpartiesbenefit,withthebankreportingclosetoa99%retentionrate.2DiscoveryBankinSouthAfricahelpscustomersmanagetheirfinances,trackstheirprogressandrewardsthosewhodowellwithawiderangeofoffers,fromdiscountsonhealthyfoodpurchasestoreductionsonairfaresandholidayaccommodation.3Thisisjustthestart.LikeAmazonandotherbigtechs,banksarelikelytocontinuallyaddfeaturesandnewcapabilitiesthatscaleasthecustomerrelationshipdeepens:themoreyouuse,themoreyouget.Weexpecttheinnovatorstobemorecreative—perhaps,insteadofatoasterforopeninganewbankaccount,customerswillgetadiscountedNetflixsubscription.Theabsenceofinterestratecompetitioncausedbanking’sdrawbridgetocomeclatteringdown,allowingsedtheirattentiontothoseproductsthatwerestillgeneratingrevenue.Intheprocess,however,theybecamelesscustomer-centric,moresiloedandlessinnovativeAllofthesemadeitmoreForbanksthathavespentmanyyearsadaptingtoazero-gravityenvironmentinwhichmanyoftheindustry’snaturallawsseemedtohavelosttheirinfluence,thereturntoearthwillbewelcomed.What,inpracticalterms,doesitmeanforbanksin2023?Whilemostdeposit-takinginstitutionswillbenefitfromtheincreaseinrates,alldepositsarenotcreatedequal.Thebigprizeinthecurrentenvironmentisstickydepositswiththelowestpossibledepositbeta*.Stickinessusedtobeeasytoachieve,butinrecentyearsmanyofthebarrierstoswitchinghavebeenweakenedbytechnology.Digitalbankinghaseliminatedthepersonalconnection.ComparisonsiteslikeBankrateintheUS,MoneySuperMarketintheUKandBankBazaarinIndiamakeiteasyforcustomerstomovetheirmoneyinpursuitofthebestrates.Customerinertiaisnolongerenoughtoensureretention.Thebanksthatarelikelytosucceedoverthenextyearandbeyondwillbethosethatbringtheirsiloedproductsbackintoanintegratedoffering,fueledbydeposits,thatpowersgreaterbenefitsbyaddressingthetotalityofeachcustomer’sneeds.”*Depositbetaistheportionofachangeintheprevailinginterestratewhichabankpassesontoitscustomers.Itisameasureofthesensitivityofdepositpricingtomonetarypolicybenchmarkrates.7BankingTop10Trendsfor20237BankingTop10Trendsfor20238TheTherenaissanceofthebranchPriortothepandemic,fewbanksspenttimewonderingwhethertheirbranchnetworkwasablessingoracurse—itwassimplyanunavoidablepartofdoingbusiness.Thentheunthinkablehappenedandvirtuallyallbrancheswereshut.Today,mostbanksareasking:whatisthefutureofthebranch?BankingTop10Trendsfor20239Bankswillbeinvitingcustomersbackandwelcomingthemhome.Moreimportantly,theywillbeshiftingtheiremphasisfrommeetingspecificneedsandsellingindividualproductstotalkingaboutimprovingcustomers’generalfinancialwellbeing.BankswillusetheirbranchestoBankswillbeinvitingcustomersbackandwelcomingthemhome.Moreimportantly,theywillbeshiftingtheiremphasisfrommeetingspecificneedsandsellingindividualproductstotalkingaboutimprovingcustomers’generalfinancialwellbeing.Bankswillusetheirbranchestolearnmoreabouttheircustomers,showinterestandempathy,offeradviceandbuildloyalty.Thiswon’tbeapivotawayfromdigitalization;rather,ahorses-for-coursesapproachthatrecognizesthestrengthsofeachchannel.Customerstodaydomostoftheirbankingontheirmobiledevices,withonly3%ofinteractionshappeningface-to-face.However,anin-personmeetingremainsthepreferredoptionwhenopeningnewproducts—27%ofconsumerssaiditwastheirfirstchoice,aheadofmobileapps(22%)andwebsites(21%).6Theopportunityistomovebeyondamarketplacewherethevalueofacustomerisequaltothesumoftheproductstheyuse,toonewhereamultipliereffectisatwork.Thisiswherethebranchcomesintoitsown,butitwilltakearetrainedandre-orientedworkforcethatismotivated,engagedandfeelsappreciated.Itwillalsotakeamoretailoredandpurposefulcustomerjourneythanwesawbeforethepandemic.Thisjourneywill,inmanycases,includenon-financialproductsthathelpcustomersdealwithchallengesinareaslikehousing,mobility,e-commerceandmore.nsemarkets.Reducingthegeographicfootprintandencouragingcustomerstouseonlythebank’sdigitalchannelshadobviouscostbenefits.However,itcameattheexpenseofpersonalrelationshipsandadeeperunderstandingofthecustomer’sneedsandintent.Inanenvironmentwheredepositshavevaluetothebankandwheresomecustomersstillbelievetheirmoneyresidesintheirlocalbranch,theserelationshipsmatter.Treatingcustomersholistically,individuallyandintimatelycanmakeahugedifference—webelievethevalue,intermsofcreatingloyaltyandeasingtheneedtocompeteonprice,issignificantlygreaterthanthecost.Thepandemicshowedusthatwithoutface-to-faceinteraction,mostbanksstruggletomaintainclose,loyalrelationships.Digitalizationmadecustomersmoreself-reliant,butatthesametimeiterodedbanks’differentiation,facilitatedswitchingandgenerallymadebankingalotlesspersonal—theoppositeofwhatisneededtosucceedtoday.Theyearaheadwillseearenewedfocusonbranches.ManybankswillfollowtheleadofJPMorganChase,which18monthsagoreporteditwasmorethanhalfwaythroughits2018plantoopen400branchesinnewmarketsacrosstheUSbytheendof2022.5BankingTop10Trendsfor202310TheThemetaversedemystifiesIn2023themetaversewillnotcompletelytransformthebankingindustry.Whatwillhappen,however,isthemetaversewillcontinuetomature.Morebankswillshiftithigherupontheiragenda,fromasocialandtechnologicalcuriositytoaseriousopportunitythatwarrantscarefulexamination.BankingTop10Trendsfor202311asKookminBankdoes?Orshowcustomershowtheycanadoptsustainabilityinallaspectsoftheirlives,includingtheirfinances,asDBS’sLiveBetterdoes?Orusegamifiedexperiencestohelpyoungcustomersimprovetheirfinancialliteracy,asAllyBankdoeswithitsFintropolis?Thepotentialislimitless.•WeasKookminBankdoes?Orshowcustomershowtheycanadoptsustainabilityinallaspectsoftheirlives,includingtheirfinances,asDBS’sLiveBetterdoes?Orusegamifiedexperiencestohelpyoungcustomersimprovetheirfinancialliteracy,asAllyBankdoeswithitsFintropolis?Thepotentialislimitless.•Wecannotbecertainhowthisnewchannelwillevolveintheyearstocomeorhowitwillreinventbanking,butfewaredisputingthatthechangewillberapidandfar-reaching.Thiswillbeespeciallytrueforpayments—nothowwepay,butratherhowwegetpaid.Trustedstandardsforacceptancewillneedtoemergeandtheformandmethodofpaymentswillchange:willweuseacardtopayinthemetaverseorwillweAirDropmoneytoeachother?Thesequestionswillreceivealotofattentionfrombankersinthenext12months—47%ofthembelievecustomerswilluseAR/VRasanalternativepaymentschannelby2030.8•Bankinginthemetaversewilldelivervalue.It’shardtoimagineeverythingitwillencompassandit’sstillawayoff,butthetrajectoryisemerging.TherapperSnoopDoggboughtlandandbuiltavirtualmansionontheSandboxplatform,afterwhichafanboughtaneighboringplotforaround$450,000.9Thequestionforbankersis:wouldyoulendthat$450,000?Wouldyouinsuretheproperty?Therevenuestreamscouldbesubstantial,andwith400millionactivemonthlyusers10andover20banks11havingalreadysetuponthemetaverse,someoneissuretograbtheopportunity.isoneofthefivekeyforcesdrivingchangeacrossallpwithadefinitiveanswertotheobviousquestion:howcanwemakeestimatesaretobebelievedsomeanalystshaveprojectedthatthetotaladdressableyears—thentheopportunityissimplytoobigtoignore.7It’ssignificantthatthenaturalevolutionofthemetaverseasabankingchannelisfollowingasimilarplaybooktobanks’moveonlineandtheiradoptionofmobile.However,it’shappeningmuchfaster.Manyarestillskeptical,butwhenmobileburstontothescene,fewthoughtitwouldbefeasibletoshrinkbanks’onlineexperiencesintoaspacelittlebiggerthanthepalmoftheirhand.Justasmobiledid,sothemetaverseisopeninganewworldofpossibilities.Webelievemostbankswillapproachtheopportunitywithafour-stepstrategy:enable,engage,inventandimagine.•Atitsmostbasiclevel,themetaverseenablesbankstointeractwiththeiremployeesandcustomersinaninfinitelyricherenvironment.Justimagineasimulationwhereabranchteamistotallyimmersedinrespondingtoabankrobberyasithappens—thereisnocomparisonbetweenthatandusingconventionaltrainingmedia.•Themetaversemaybeourbestopportunitytoputhumanitybackintobanking.WhatifyoucouldengageinaVRconversationwithacustomerintheirlivingroom,BankingTop10Trendsfor202312RightRightculture,righttalentBanks’monolithiccultureshavebeenshakenandexposedbyrecentevents.Thepandemicandtheaccompanyingwork-from-homeupheavaldidalotmorethandramaticallyacceleratebanks’technologicaltransformationandeliminateemployees’commute.Italsotransformedhowworkisperformedandmanaged,employees’levelsofautonomy,theirexpectationsregardingflexibilityandawork-lifebalance,andthesourcingoftalent.Takentogether,theseposeanunprecedentedchallengetoleadershipandthestatusquo.Whileweareseeingmanybanksreducingthesizeoftheirworkforce,theyarealsoincreasingtheaveragecostoftheiremployees.Theirpeoplearebecomingmoredemanding,lessaccepting—andmorelikelytoleave.Thisalteredenvironmentcallsforanewmindsetandadifferentapproach.Intheyearaheadweexpecttoseemorebankschangingtheirtalentstrategy:acknowledgingtherealitiesoftheemploymentmarketandtakingamoredeliberateapproachtoaligningtalentwiththedemandsofWhileweareseeingmanybanksreducingthesizeoftheirworkforce,theyarealsoincreasingtheaveragecostoftheiremployees.Theirpeoplearebecomingmoredemanding,lessaccepting—andmorelikelytoleave.Thisalteredenvironmentcallsforanewmindsetandadifferentapproach.Intheyearaheadweexpecttoseemorebankschangingtheirtalentstrategy:acknowledgingtherealitiesoftheemploymentmarketandtakingamoredeliberateapproachtoaligningtalentwiththedemandsofthebusinessstrategy.Successfulemployerswillhaveadetailedworkforceplanthatchangesthesize,costandskillsoftheirworkforce,andtheywilljoinuptheirstrategiesforsourcing,selection,mobility,developmentandretention.Theywillrethinktheirtraditionalverticaljobhierarchiesandexperimentwithcross-functionalteamsinwhichskillsarepre-eminent.Theywilldesignfluidorganizationalmodelsthatsupportmovementandprogression,agilewaysofworkingandseamlesscollaborationacrosssilos.Theywillalsotakeafreshlookattheirtalentcosts,whicharetoohighandtoofixed.Addressingthiswithintheirexistingworkmodelhas,overtime,yieldeddiminishingreturns;thealternativeistotransformwhatworkgetsdoneandhow.Agrowingnumberofbanks,whichinthepastmighthavevariabilizedtheirmanual-intensivefunctionsbytakingadvantageofcostarbitrage,arenowmorelikelytooffloadworkthatwillsimplygoawayovertime.Byactingnowtogetaheadoftheinevitable,theycanfocusinsteadonstrategicwork.Manyofthepositivechangesthatemployeesexperiencedasaresultofthepandemicilywithinbankscurrentcultureemployeesincreasinglywanttoworkwithinansientteamsacquiringnewskillsandmakingfrequentchangestotheircareerpaths.What’smore,banks’ambitionsarebeingstuntedbythedifficultyofattractingandretainingthepeopletheyneed.Aglobalsurveyrevealedin2021thatmorethan40%ofemployeeswerethinkingofleavingtheircurrentjobs.12Anotherfoundthatfinancialservicesworkersaremoreambivalent(29%vs.12%)andlessoptimistic(24%vs42%)thantheglobalworkforceasawhole.13Andathirdstudyshowedthatonly10%ofGenZandMillennialsareinterestedinacareerinfinancialservices.14Whiletheseissuesapplyacrossthebusiness,theyareespeciallypertinentwhenitcomestopriorityworkforcesthatmakeadifferencetothebank’sperformance.Revenue-generatingrolessuchaswealthandcorporaterelationshipmanagementareobviouscandidatesforspecialattention,whilesustainablefinanceisalreadyexperiencingred-hotdemand.Manybankshaverespondedbystrivingtodothefamiliarthingsbetter.Thisisunlikelytowork.Theongoingdigitalizationofbankshasshiftedthebalanceoftheirskillsprofilebyautomatingmanyroutineclericaltasksandatthesametimecreatingnewrolesrequiringscarcespecialistskills.Talent—oneofthefivekeyforcesofchangewhichbankscanharnesstounlocktheirfullpotential—willmakeever-increasingdemandsonbanks’leadershipinthemonthsandyearsahead.Ifitisn’tgiventhepriorityitdeserves,itwillquicklyassertitselfasaburningplatform.Thepandemichasforever