凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设某某年凯捷大学原创》

StructuredProblemSolving&HypothesisGenerationGoalsofthismoduleLayoutasystematicapproachtosolvingbusinessproblems–“StructuredProblemSolving”Establishacommon“modusoperandus”forConsultingteamsPracticethesuggestedprocessonareal-lifeexampleStrategyisaboutthrivinginachangingworld…“Thepicture’sprettybleak,gentlemen...Theworld’sclimatesarechanging,themammalsaretakingover,andweallhaveabrainaboutthesizeofawalnut.”…whichisallabout“decisionmaking”“Strategyisaboutmakingdecisions”Thebeststrategy“makers”areabletoblendanalytictechniqueswithanunderstandingofthefutureuncertaintiesandsimplegoodluckBasedonoftenimperfectinformationtheymakedecisionsandthendriveimplementationTherearetwobasicapproachestoproblemsolving;butbothcanworkThe“there'saponyinheresomewhere”approachThestructuredanalyticapproachPotentialforrichpowerfulsolutionsScurryaroundanalyzingtonsofdatatoseeifyoucanfindsomethingusefulGetthedataPotentialforgood(andmixed)solutionsDefineproblemandhypothesesDefiningtheissueisthefirststepinthejourneytofinalrecommendationsDevelopConclusionsandMakeRecommendationstoImplementFindInsightsAnalyseDataGatherDataFormHypothesesSowhat?—aha,newthoughtWhatyoushoulddo…andhowDefinetheIssuesWhatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight?FactualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypothesesAnalysewhatthedatatellsusStatementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysisHypothesisformationensuresthatouranalysisisfocusedonourclient’sproblemFormHypothesesDefinetheIssuesGatherDataAnalyseDataFindInsightsDevelopConclusionsandMakeRecommendationstoImplementSowhat?—aha,newthoughtWhatyoushoulddo…andhowWhatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight?FactualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypothesesAnalysewhatthedatatellsusStatementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysisHypothesesaredevelopedinthreestepsWhataretherealstrategicissues?Whatistheimpactontheorganisation?Whatarethepriorities?Wethink...Itlookslike...Therightanswermaybe...Theoptionscouldbe...Webelievethistobetrue...Aseriesofstatements,notyetbackedbydataBasedoninitialdatasearchorexpertopinionsAnumberofassertionsneedtobetrueforahypothesistobevalid.Isthereamarketforwhitelabelinsuranceproducts?DirectchannelsaregrowingRetailershaveastrongchannelandbrandThereareexistingproductsChubbInsurancecanaccessnewbusinessbyusingthebrandstrengthofTescoresultingIslowcostofacquisitionandprofitablebusinessDefinethequestionReviewandDescribeMultipleAssertionsFormthehypothesis123AhypothesisshouldidentifynotonlytheissuebutalsothecauseandtheimpactThinkthroughthesethreestagesasyoucreateahypothesistohelpyouplanouthowyouwilltestit:Whatistheissue?Whatistheunderlyingopportunity?Whereistheadvantage?Whatdoyouthinkcausestheissue?Whatarethekeydriversoftheprocess?Whatistheimpactoftheissue?Howcanwetellthereisanopportunity?Whydowecare?“xisanopportunity...”“…dueto...”“…resultingin...”TheStructuredProblemSolvingProcesscoversthelifecycleofaconsultingengagementDefinetheProblemStructuretheProblemDevelopaHypothesisExecutetheAnalysisDevelopaRecommendationCreatetheCommunicationDeliverCommunicationFollowUpwithClientCoveredincurrentmoduleCoveredlaterintheweekTheBasics-ProblemSolvingApproachDEFINETHEPROBLEMSTRUCTURETHEANALYSISFINDTHESOLUTIONOurproblemsolvingapproachproducesresultsthroughansweringasimpleseriesofquestionsIsthereaproblemoropportunity?Ifsowheredoesitlie?Whydoesitexist?Whatcouldwedoaboutit?Whatshouldwedoaboutit?Fine,butIWIKH2dothis...Source:BarbaraMinto,““ThePyramidPrinciple””.Alwaysask:“AretheyMutuallyExclusiveandComprehensivelyExhaustive(MECE)?”Logicalpyramidsarebasictoolsforthisapproach,helpingyoutodefine,structureandsolvetheclient’sproblem1.Ideasatanylevelinthepyramidmustalwaysbesummariesoftheideasgroupedbelowthem2.Ideasineachgroupingmustalwaysbethesamekindofidea,andtheymustanswerthesamequestionimpliedbytheirsummary3.Ideasineachgroupingmustalwaysbeinalogicalorder:MainAssertionKeyLineDeductivelyorinductivelyTracecourseortimeorderDivideorstructuralorder(e.g.,Sales,Marketing,Manufacturing,etc.)Classifyordegreeorder(e.g.,mostimportant,2ndmostimportant,etc.)Logicalpyramidsincreasetheeffectivenessofproblemsolving,resultsdeliveryandcommunication……VerticalstructureHorizontalstructureKeyline/narrative…buthelpensurethoroughanalysis………whiledecreasingcomplexity………andincreasingthepowerofpresentationsLogicalpyramidshavesimplerules……TheeffectivenessofourworkdependsheavilyonhowcompellinglywecanarguethatthesolutionweputforwardservestheclientbestThereasoningwehavetoapplytocometooursolutioniscomplexanddifficulttosummarizeforbriefclientinteractionsTobuildsuccinctandcompellingpresentationsofourwork,weuselogicalpyramidsasthepreferredcommunicationstyle:PyramidsmakeinformationmorememorableandmeaningfulTheyleadtoaclearerdefinitionoftheproblemswesolveTheystructureoursolutionstotheseproblemsandmakethemmorecompellingSource:BarbaraMinto,““ThePyramidPrinciple””.…whichwillmakeyourwork/lifemucheasiertohandleDefineandStructuretheProblem“Ifyoudon’’tknowwhereyouaregoing,anyroadwilltakeyouthere.”-AnonymousWhyproblemdefinitionmattersInstructuringaproblem,breakitintosmaller,easier-to-handlecomponentsANDstartwiththerightdefinitionsUSCarMarketLightTrucksPassengerCarsBig3MiniVansSportUtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerButbecareful——whydoesthisnotwork?"MutuallyExclusiveandComprehensivelyExhaustive"ThemostimportantruleforanystructureyouimposeDivideClarifyDiagnostic

FrameworkCauseEffectFrameworkStructural

FrameworkProblemStructureTohelpyousolveaproblem,yourstructuremust:DisaggregatetheproblemintosmallerandeasiertosolvecomponentsBea“MECE”descriptionoftheproblemanditspossiblesolutionsTraceCauseTherearethreewaystostructureabusinessproblemSource:BarbaraMinto,““ThePyramidPrinciple”.HeadHurtsPhysicalMentalExternalInternalStress,TensionHypochondriaBumped,BruisedHeadAllergiesBadWeather,SinusHeadache,Flu,ColdBrainTumorWaterontheBrainExample1——disaggregatetheproblemintoadiagnosticsolutiontreeSCooPSource:BarbaraMinto,““ThePyramidPrinciple”.StoreiswithinshoppingradiusdonotknowaboutthestoreknowaboutthestorenevervisitthestoreenterthestoredonotbuymakeapurchasedonotcomebackmakerepeatpurchasesLocationAdvertisingSignage,CIConversionCustomerValueRootCauseExample2(tracecause)——disaggregatetheproblemintoacause-effectframeworkHowcanTESCOimproveitssalesproductivity(sales/sq.ft.)?AccounttypePacksizeREPURCHASETargetmarketpersuadedtorepurchase?DISTRIBUTIONBrandmadeavailable?TRIALTargetmarketinducedtotry?AWARENESSTargetmarketaware?ProductrejectionPrice/valuerejectionFrequencyofuseOccasionofuseConsumerprofilePackDisplayPromotiontypePromotiontuningSell-ineffectivenessFeedbackIfalllinesofinquiryfailtorevealaproblemsource,gobacktoconsiderwhethertargetmarketandconsumerbenefithavebeenaccuratelydefined.AttributeawarenessAdvertisingrecallAdvertisingspendingrateMediamixRegionalweightAdvertisingcommunicationTargetmarketConsumerbenefitRegionSalesforcecoverageSalesforcedirectionTradetermsExample3——disaggregatetheproblemintoanintrinsicstructureWhydoesWimpy’’snotshowtheanticipatedfinancialperformance?ChannelSource:BarbaraMinto,““ThePyramidPrinciple””.Productspec.SellingpriceBrandnamePackagingPOSITIONINGBrandproperlypositionedforthemarket?Exercise1——Kmartvs.Wal*Mart:defineandstructureKmart’sbusinessproblemSituationKmartandWal*MartoperatesimilarchainsofFulllineDiscountstoresDifferentpricingstrategies:Kmartfollowsapromotionalpricingstrategyofweeklysales,offeringdiscountsonselecteditems,Wal*MartfollowsanEDLPstrategy(EDLP=EveryDayLowPrices);Kmart'sregularpricesarehigherthanWal*Mart’s,itssalespricesarelowerWal*MarthasabetterpriceperceptionthanKmartKmarthasahigherGMthanWal*Mart(23%vs.21%)KmarthassignificantlyhigherSG&Aaspercentofsales,whicheliminateKmart'sGrossMarginadvantageoverWal*MartWal*Mart’’sscaleadvantageisnotdrivenbythenumberofstores,butbyitssalesperstore(bettersalespersquarefoot)KmarthassignificantlylowersalespersquarefootsalesthanWal*Mart($170vs$250).WithWal*Mart’’ssalesproductivity,KmartwouldbeaboutasprofitableasWal*MartComplicationKmartisoperatingatbreak-even,andWal*Mart’’saggressiveexpansionputsmoreandmoreofKmart'sstoresintodirectcompetitionwithWal*Mart,decreasingtheirstorecontributionandKmart'soverallprofitabilityQuestion?????StructureKmart'sproblemtohelpitsmanagementdeviseasolution,includingidentifyingthekeyquestionthatourstudymustanswerExercise1——

defineandstructureKmart’sproblem:firststepistologicallyorganizethefactsCompanyCompetitorCustomerHigherGMthanWalMart(+)HigherSG&AexpensesthanWalMart(-)AgingstoresHi/LopricingstrategyLowernetincomethanWalMartErodingsame-storesalesvs.WalMartSales/sq.ft.higherthanKmartAggressiveexpansionintoKmartterritoriesEDLPpricingstrategyCustomersperceiveWalMartpricesbetterthanKmartExercise1——

defineandstructureKmart’sproblem:secondstepistoiteratetodriveinsightcreationAlthoughKmart’sHi/LopricingstrategyleadstohighGM,highSG&AhasledtoerodingsalesproductivityHigherGMthanWalMart(+)HigherSG&AexpensesthanWalMart(-)AgingstoresHi/LopricingstrategyLowernetincomethanWalMartErodingsame-storesalesvs.WalMartSales/sq.ft.higherthanKmartAggressiveexpansionintoKmartterritoriesEDLPpricingstrategyCustomersperceiveWalMartpricesbetterthanKmartWalMartisaggressivelyexpanding,withhighlyproductivestoresandadifferentpricingstrategythanKMartCustomersperceiveWalMartdelivershighervalueinsomeareasHowcanKmartimproveitssalesproductivity(sales/sq.ft.)?Exercise4—summaryperformancedataforacreditcardissuer…what’’stheproblem?Note:Allfiguresin1000s.AssumenopriceinflationandthatinterestrateshaveremainedconstantThe80/20Rule…80%oftheanswerisin20%ofthedataOftenwemissthegoldminebecausewearebusytryingtovaluetheshackbuiltontopofitThisdata,takenfromarealclient(butrebased,)tellsthewholesorrystoryoftheirstrategicprobleminonepictureExercise5—usinga“quickanddirty”approachcanproducesurprisinglyaccurateresults30million?300million?3billion?30billion?300billion?HowMany(Retail)LitresofPetrolAreSoldinFrancePerYear?Data:FrenchPopulation~60million.1Gallon=3.8LitresDevelopaHypothesisExplicitlytiesyouranalysistoyourproblemdefinitionWhyhypothesesmatterTheykeepyoureffortHelpsdefinethelevelofaccuracythatmattersEnsuresyouanalyzenomorethanisneededtodisprovehypotheseswithinareasonabledoubtAllowsquickcheckbeforemassivedatacollectionandcrunching:“Ifweconfirmourbeliefinthehypothesis,willwebeabletoactonit?”KeepsyouefficientOntargetAccurateMinimalActionableOnTimeSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.1.Rule2.Case3.ResultRuleCaseResultIfweputthepricetoohigh,saleswillgodownWehaveputpricestoohighTherefore,saleswillgodownCaseResultRuleWehaveputpricesupSaleshavegonedownSaleshavegonedownbecausethepriceistoohighSaleshavegonedownSalesgodownwhenpricesaretoohighProbablywehaveputpricestoohighHypothesisResultRuleCaseAbductionisavariationondeductiveandinductivereasoningandapowerfultooltodevelophypothesesDeductionInductionAbduction1.Case2.Result3.Rule1.Result2.Rule3.CaseDEVELOPAHYPOTHESISWhatdifferentiatesagoodhypothesisfromabadone?Ontarget:Answersthecorequestionontheclients’’mindAccurate:EmbracestheentirerangeofcompetitiveorprofitdriversMinimal:“Occam’srazor”Actionable:CanbequantifiedandtestedOntimeGoodHypothesesAreCannotberefutedCannotpossiblybequantifiedRequireyouto““BoiltheOcean””AresoobviousthatnobodycanintelligentlydisagreewithitOrlooklikeanabstractmodelofaprocessconsistingofboxes,arrowsandcloudsBadHypothesesDEVELOPAHYPOTHESISHowtofindagoodhypothesisThereareprovenprocessestogeneratehypotheses:TalktolotsofpeopleaboutthecoreproblemHaveabrainstormingcaseteammeetingTaguchimethod——ask““5Why’s”Startwithgeneralvaliditychecksforyourhypotheses:Assumeperfectrationality—howoughtthebusinesssystemtobehave?Lookforanalogies(otherindustriesorproblems)Imaginethatyouhadperfectinformation——whatwouldtheidealanalysislooklike?TryLateralThinking:ThinkabouttheproblemfromadifferentangleDEVELOPAHYPOTHESISWhatifyourhypothesisisprovenwrong?YouWin!Hypothesis-driventhinkingrequiresfrequentreviewsoftheprevailingandcurrenthypotheses:Dowestillthinktheyareright?Arewemakingprogresstowardsdisprovingthem?Aretheyattherightlevelofgenerality/predictiveness?Havingprovenahypothesiswrongmeansyouhavemadeabigsteptowardsansweringyourquestion!“Awisemansometimeschangeshismind,butafoolnever.”-ArabicProverbSummaryTobedeveloped––thankyou!!9、静夜四无邻邻，荒居旧业业贫。。1月-231月-23Friday,January6,202310、雨中黄叶叶树，灯下下白头人。。。21:01:4721:01:4721:011/6/20239:01:47PM11、以我独沈久久，愧君相见见频。。1月-2321:01:4721:01Jan-2306-Jan-2312、故人江江海别，，几度隔隔山川。。。21:01:4721:01:4721:01Friday,January6,202313、乍见翻疑梦梦，相悲各问问年。。1月-231月-2321:01:4721:01:47January6,202314、他乡生白白发，旧国国见青山。。。06一月月20239:01:47下下午21:01:471月-2315、比不不了得得就不不比，，得不不到的的就不不要。。。。。一月239:01下下午午1月-2321:01January6,202316、行动出成果果，工作出财财富。。2023/1/621:01:4721:01:4706January202317、做前，，能够环环视四周周；做时时，你只只能或者者最好沿沿着以脚脚为起点点的射线线向前。。。9:01:47下午午9:01下午午21:01:471月-239、没有失失败，只只有暂时时停止成