经典大摩Ford汽车析战略报告

PresentationtotheAutomotiveNewsWorldCongressStephenJ.Girsky

January2004DisclosuresAnalystCertificationAnalystCertificationThefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:StephenJ.Girsky.ImportantUSRegulartoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompaniesTheinformationandopinionsinthisreportwerepreparedbyMorganStanley&Co.Incorporated(“MorganStanley”).AsofNovember28,2003,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinthisreport:Delphi,GeneralMotors,GoodyearTire&Rubber,JohnsonControls,MagnaIntlInc.,TBCandTowerAutomotive.Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicofferingofsecuritiesofDaimlerChryslerAG,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,StandardMotorProductsandTenneco.Withinthelast12months,MorganStanley,MorganStanleyoranaffiliatehasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology,AmericanAxleandMfg.,BorgWarnerInc.,DaimlerChryslerAG,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,StandardMotorProducts,SuperiorIndustries,Tenneco,TowerAutomotiveandVisteonCorporation.Inthenext3months,MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromAftermarketTechnology,AmericanAxleandMfg.,ArvinMeritor,AutoNation,BorgWarnerInc.,DaimlerChryslerAG,DanaCorp.,Delphi,Ford,GeneralMotors,GenuinePartsCo.,GoodyearTire&Rubber,JohnsonControls,LearCorp.,LithiaMotors,MagnaIntlInc.,StandardMotorProducts,SuperiorIndustries,Tenneco,TowerAutomotive,UnitedAutoGroupandVisteonCorporation.Theresearchanalysts,strategist,orresearchassociatesprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationoftheresearchreporthavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingqualityofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandinvestmentbankingrevenues.MorganStanley&Co.IncorporatedmakesamarketinthesecuritiesofAftermarketTechnology,Delphi,DuraAutomotive,Ford,GeneralMotors,MagnaIntl.,TBCandTowerAutomotive.GlobalStockRatingsDistribution(asofDecember31,2003)(Continued)DisclosuresDisclosuresMorganStanleyisinvolvedinmanybusinessesthatmayrelatetocompaniesmentionedinthisreport.Thesebusinessesincludespecializedtrading,riskarbitrageandotherproprietarytrading,fundmanagement,investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking.MorganStanleymakeseveryefforttousereliable,comprehensiveinformation,butwemakenorepresentationthatitisaccurateorcomplete.Wehavenoobligationtotellyouwhenopinionsorinformationinthisreportchangeapartfromwhenweintendtodiscontinueresearchcoverageofsubjectcompany.ReportspreparedbyMorganStanleyresearchpersonnelarebasedonpublicinformation.Factsandviewspresentedinthisreporthavenotbeenreviewedby,andmaynotreflectinformationknownto,professionalsinotherMorganStanleybusinessareas,includinginvestmentbankingpersonnel.Thevalueofandincomefromyourinvestmentsmayvarybecauseofchangesininterestratesorforeignexchangerates,securitiespricesormarketindexes,operationalorfinancialconditionsofcompaniesorotherfactors.Theremaybetimelimitationsontheexerciseofoptionsorotherrightsinyoursecuritiestransactions.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformance.Estimatesoffutureperformancearebasedonassumptionsthatmaynotberealized.ThispublicationisdisseminatedinJapanbyMorganStanleyJapanLimitedand/orMorganStanleyNipponSecuritiesLimited;inSingaporebyorganStanleyDeanWitterAsia(Singapore)Pte.,regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore;inAustraliabyMorganStanleyDeanWitterAustraliaLimitedA.B.N.67003734576,alicenseddealer,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents;incertainprovincesofCanadabyMorganStanleyCanadaLimited,whichhasapprovedof,andhasagreedtotakeresponsibilityfor,thecontentsofthispublicationinCanada;inSpainbyMorganStanley,S.V.,S.A.,aMorganStanleygroupcompany,whichissupervisedbytheSpanishSecuritiesMarketsCommission(CNMV)andstatesthatthisdocumenthasbeenwrittenanddistributedinaccordancewiththerulesofconductapplicabletofinancialresearchasestablishedunderSpanishregulations;intheUnitedStatesbyMorganStanley&Co.IncorporatedandMorganStanleyDWInc.,whichacceptresponsibilityforitscontents;andintheUnitedKingdom,thispublicationisapprovedbyMorganStanley&Co.InternationalLimited,solelyforthepurposesofsection21oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000.PrivateU.K.investorsshouldobtaintheadviceoftheirMorganStanley&Co.InternationalLimitedrepresentativeabouttheinvestmentconcerned.Thetrademarksandservicemarkscontainedhereinarethepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.Third-partydataprovidersmakenowarrantiesorrepresentationsofanykindrelatingtotheaccuracy,completeness,ortimelinessofthedatatheyprovideandshallnothaveliabilityforanydamagesofanykindrelatingtosuchdata.TheGlobalIndustryClassificationStandard("GICS")wasdevelopedbyandistheexclusivepropertyofMSCIandS&P.Thisreportoranyportionhereofmaynotbereprinted,soldorredistributedwithoutthewrittenconsentofMorganStanley.Additionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableonrequest.OverviewAutoOutlook:Sameproblems;LessofthemGlobalDilemma:Mostparticipantsspendingforgrowthyettheindustrydoesnotgrow.Demandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery.Competitivepressuresarelikelytoremaindifficult.Weakerdollarcouldlevelprovidesomeoffset.Higherratescreateriskofweakerdemand,weakermixandlowerfinancecompanyearnings.BigThreeopportunity:Actualqualityisbetterthanperceivedquality.GlobalLightVehicleSales:SlowGrowthCAGR1.2%Source:LMC~J.D.Power&MorganStanleyResearchGlobalSalesForecasts:2003-2004Source:GlobalInsight&MorganStanleyResearch*NoteforecastsarederivedfromGlobalInsightU.S.Sales16.7mmUnitsFY03E16.8mmUnitsFY04ESource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchJapaneseSAAR5.6mmUnitsFY03E5.7mmUnitsFY04ESource:MorganStanleyResearchWesternEuropeanSAAR14.1mmFY03E14.2mmFY04ESource:MorganStanleyResearchGlobalExcessCapacityat25%-30%or20mmunitsSource:Autofacts&MorganStanleyResearchCapEx/D&AFY2003E:OEMsSpendingforGrowthSource:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch*AdjustedtofitscaleZeroSumGameGlobalDilemma:Mostparticipantsarespendingforgrowth,yettheindustrydoesnotgrow.Slowgrowth&excesscapacitysuggestdeflation/revenuepressuresarelikelytocontinue.Noteverybodycanbeawinner.Winnerswillbelowcostproducerswhodeliveragoodproductthatconsumersarewillingtopayfor.ModestDemandGrowthDemandgrowthislikelytobemodestdespiteeconomicrecovery:Autosalesdidnotweakenmateriallyinthemostrecentrecessionandthus,significantpent-updemandwasnevercreated.Thenumberofoff-leasevehiclesisfallingsharply––fewerconsumersarebeingforcedbacktoadealertobuyorleaseanewvehicle.Extendedfinancingtermsarelikelytoprolongvehicleturnover.Economicconditionsappearmixed.LightVehicleSalesTrendLineDemandSource:MorganStanleyResearchLightVehicleSalesCycle:TroughtoTroughSource:R.L.Polk,GlobalInsight&MorganStanleyResearchWeightedMedianAgeofaVehiclevs.Sales1YearLeadCorrelation77.6%Source:Polk&MorganStanleyResearchOffLeaseVehiclesBegintoDeclineSource:Manheim&MorganStanleyResearchFewerConsumersBeingForcedBacktotheDealershipsAverageMaturityofVehicleLoans(months)Source:FederalReserveBoard&MorganStanleyResearchTakingLongertoEstablishConsumerEquitySource:FRB&MorganStanleyResearchEconomicConditionsBetterthantheywere,butstillnotrobustSource:CPI&MorganStanleyResearchPeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03InterestRatesConsumerConfidenceGasolinePricesUsedCarPricesEmploymentAffordabilityNear25YearBestNumberofWeeksofIncometoPurchaseaVehicleSource:FRB&MorganStanleyResearchIntenseCompetitionCompetitivepressuresarelikelytoremaindifficult:Capacitygrowthtocontinuein2004.Pricingislikelytoremaindifficultalthoughaweakdollarmayprovideamodestoffset.Marketsharepressurestocontinueaswell.NACapacityAdditions,DespiteFlatSlsOutlookSource:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004FordGM(211)(98)80=100,000unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030NetIncreaseOf853,000UnitsorRoughly5.1%ofNAsales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai2356ExcessCapacity&MoreIsOnTheWayEvery1%Pt.ofMarketShareTranslatesinto$1.0bninProfits853,000UnitsofAddedCapacityis5.1%ofNACapacity,or$5bninPretaxProfitsNAPretaxProfitBigThreeFY03E(inMM)$1,971Source:MorganStanleyResearchEstimatesRevenuePressuresWorstSince1970’’sNewCarCPIvs.DomesticLightVehicleSalesSource:CPI&MorganStanleyResearchY/YChangeinMonthlyNewCarCPISource:CPI&MorganStanleyResearchPriceReductionsPressureManufacturersEvery1%DeclineinPricesisWorth$1.0bnatGM$850mmatFord$550mmatDCXSource:MorganStanleyResearchBigThreeMarketShareContinuestoSlide76.0%60.2%61.7%Every1%PointofShareisWorthRoughly$1bninProfitSource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchMarketShareWinners/Losers––FY03Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchBigThreeShareofSalesbySegment:FY-03vs.FY-02Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchUSDollarperEuro:Jan03-PresentSource:FactSet&MorganStanleyResearchSource:FactSet&MorganStanleyResearchYentoUSDollarPriceSensitivity:YTD03Source:CompanyData&MorganStanleyResearchNote:*IncludesAcura,Infiniti,LexusWeakerDollarCouldHelpaLittleSource:MorganStanleyResearchGlobalOperatingMarginsFY02Source:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch*MorganStanleyEstimatesExcludingPension&OPEBExpensefortheBigThreePorscheNissanBMWHondaToyotaHyundaiGMPeugeotKiaVWDCXRenaultFordFiat16.4%10.6%8.9%8.4%8.1%6.1%5.7%5.0%4.7%4.0%3.8%1.7%1.8%-6.2%HigherRatesCouldbeaNegativeHigherratescreateriskofweakerdemand,weakermixandlowerfinancecompanyearningsExtendedtermssuggestlongerreplacementrates.Every1%increaseinfinancingrateson5-yearloansisworth$730-750pervehicle.AutoFinanceTerms:Fall2001vs.NowSource:FRB&MorganStanleyResearchGMAC/FMCCBorrowingCostsSource:FRB&MorganStanleyResearchBig3Opportunity:ActualQualityisBetterthanPerceivedQualitySource:JDPower,CNW&MorganStanleyResearchTheBigThree:Positives&NegativesEachCompanyFacesUniqueChallenges:GMhasoperationalmomentumandhasmadesignificantstridesrelativetoitsfixedlegacycosts.Ford’sshareislikelytoremainunderpressure.Whileearningsandcostcuttinghavebeenstrong,cashflowneedstocatchup.DCXcontinuestostrugglewithitsproductline.Qualityissues,bothperceived(Chrysler)andactual(Mercedes)continuetolinger.BigThreeRelativeStockPerformance:2003Source:FactSet&MorganStanleyResearchGeneralMotorsGMstillappearstohaveavariablecostadvantagevs.F&DCXandafixedcostdisadvantage.GM’saggressivefundingofpensionandhealthcarehavehelpedtonarrowthefixedcostdisadvantage.SignificantnewproductlaunchesgiveGMitsbestchanceofgainingshare/reducingincentivesinyears.GMisgoinginto2004withaboveaverageinventory.Financecompanyearningsarelikelytodeclineduetohigherinterestratesandlowermortgagerefinancingactivity.GMMarketShare35.5%28.0%28.4%Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchU.S.Healthcare&PensionCost/UnitFY03Source:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearch$1,134$601$1,159$814$889$740$1,899$902$1074$185$88GMPensionFundedStatus:2003UpdateSource:CompanyData&MorganStanleyResearchGMHasBuiltInventoryin2003Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchFinancialServiceEarningsUnlikelytoMatch2003Source:Companydata&MorganStanleyResearchGMNew/Replacement/RedesignedProductsSource:CompanyData,Ward’sAutomotive&MorganStanleyResearchFordMotorCompanyEarningshaveexceededexpectations.Nowcashflowneedstocatchup.WiththeexceptionoftheF-Series,newproductsarelimiteduntilyear-end,suggestingsharepressureislikelytocontinue.InternationalOperations/PremierAutoGroupneedtostartpullingtheirweight.Stabilityinmanagementranksisimportant.FMarketShareSource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearch19.6%19.5%20.2%25.7%Fvs.GMCashFlowSource:Companyreports&MorganStanleyResearchFAutoPre-TaxProfit,1999-2004ESource:CompanyData&MorganStanleyResearchFGeographicPre-taxProfit:3Q03vs.3Q02Source:Companyreports&MorganStanleyResearchFNew/Replacement/RedesignedProductsSource:CompanyData,Ward’sAutomotive&MorganStanleyResearchFNewProductMonitorSource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchGM/FordOutlook;WhatTheySayGMexpectsmarketstogrowaroundtheworldandtheirmarketsharetogrowineveryregion.FordexpectsprofitstodeclineinNorthAmerica.Theywerenotspecificbutsuggestcostissueslingering.GMexpectsEuropeanprofitstogrowby$300-400mm($500-$700mmpretax)in2004,whileFordexpectsprofitstogrowby$900-1,000mm.Itisunclearhowthisprofitgrowthcanoccurgiventhedifficultmarketconditionsthere.DaimlerChryslerProductlinehasbeenplayingdefenseforsometime.Offenseneedstogetonthefield.Chryslerfacesperceivedqualityproblems.Mercedeshasactualqualityproblems.Affiliateissuesmayloomlargein2004.CommercialtruckbusinessatDCXcouldbeapositivesourceofearningsforthecompanyin2004.DCXMarketShare12.2%12.8%13.1%Source:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchDCXCar&Lt.TruckSalesAsA%ofParentCarsLightTrucksSource:Autodata&MorganStanleyResearchChrysler&DCXOperatingMarginsSource:Companyreports&MorganStanleyResearchDCXNew/Replacement/RedesignedProductsSource:CompanyData,Ward’sAutomotive&MorganStanleyResearchImplicationsGMwillcontinuetopursueits““growourwayout””strategy.DCXimprovedcoststructureiskeepingitinthegame.Newproductiscriticaltoalleviatingrevenuepressure.ForeignOEMsarelikelytocontinuetoaddcapacityinNA.Fordlikelytobeplayingdefenseforonemoreyear.Thecompanyneedstohangonandcontinuetoattacktheircostsuntilnewproductarrives.Onthebrightside,theBigThreeproductisthebestitseverbeen.Source:MorganStanleyResearchSuppliers’’RelativeStockPerformance:2003Source:FactSet&MorganStanleyResearchDealers’RelativeStockPerformance:2003Source:FactSet&MorganStanleyResearchExpectations:YearAgovs.TodaySource:MorganStanleyResearch9、静静夜夜四四无无邻邻，，荒荒居居旧旧业业贫贫。。。。12月月-2212月月-22Sunday,December25,202210、雨雨中中黄黄叶叶树树，，灯灯下下白白头头人人。。。。22:59:2822:59:2822:5912/25/202210:59:28PM11、以我独独沈久，，愧君相相见频。。。12月-2222:59:2822:59Dec-2225-Dec-2212、故人江江海别，，几度隔隔山川。。。22:59:2822:59:2822:59Sunday,December25,202213、乍见翻翻疑梦，，相悲各各问年。。。12月-2212月-2222:59:2822:59:28December25,202214、他乡生白发发，旧国见青青山。。25十二月月202210:59:28下午午22:59:2812月-2215、比不了得得就不比，，得不到的的就不要。。。。十二月2210:59下午12月-2222:59December25,202216、行动出成成果，工作作出财富。。。2022/12/2522:59:2822:59:2825December202217、做做前前，，能能够够环环视视四四周周；；做做时时，，你你只只能能或或者者最最好好沿沿着着以以脚脚为为起起点点的的射射线线向向前前。。。。10:59:28下下午午10:59下下午午22:59:2812月月-229、没没有有失失败败，，只只有有暂暂时时停停止止成成功功！！。。12月-2212月-22Sunday,De