非洲的大趋势和冲突动态：外交干预中的多极化和授权英

rMegatrendsandConflictDynamicsinAfrica:MultipolarityandDelegationinForeignInterventionsWorkingPaper02Dr.BenediktErforthProjectDirectoratMegatrendsAfrikaandSeniorResearcherwiththeInter-andTransnationalCooperationProgrammeatIDOSbenedikt.erforth@idos-research.deAnnaHörter,M.A.ResearchAssistantatMegatrendsAfrikaandtheAfricaandMiddleEastResearchDivisionatSWPanna.hoerter@Dr.WolframLacherProjectDirectoratMegatrendsAfrikaandSeniorAssociatewiththeAfricaandMiddleEastResearchDivisionatSWPwolfram.lacher@LisaTschörner,M.A.AssociatewithMegatrendsAfrikaandtheAfricaandMiddleEastResearchDivisionatSWPlisa.tschoerner@Introduction1Conceptualcontroversies3Megatrendsanddelegation6Consequences:Blurredboundaries,conflictdynamics,andaccountability7Blurredboundaries7Conflictdynamics10Civiliancasualties11Deniabilityandaccountability11Multipolarityandmotivationsforremotewarfare13Consequencesofremoteandhybridwarfareamidstmultipolarity14anisationaretransformingallasrealteringpatalsurrogateslobalpowerpoliticsisshiftingtolinnovationisdrivingthediffusionofnewweaponry.Digitalisationisfacilitatingthespreadofsurveillancetechnologyanddisinformationthroughsocialmedia.Finally,globalisation,understoodastheintensificationandaccelera-nedatendencyinWesternsocietiestowardsquitousandmoreriskaverseinterventiontotackleperceivedthreatsworldwide.1digitalinfluenceoperationsundertakenbysubcontracsorcounteringthoseofanalterpowerrelationsbetweenlocalactorsinAfricanconflicts.gatedinterventionhavebeenondisplayinretaryassistancetoSomalipartiesincreasedsubeatandmiddlepowerrivalriesbecomingevermoreprominentagainstofocustesonthecontinentersinAfycapeTechnologicalinnovationhasfacilitatedboththemultiplicationofinterveningpowersstateshavewageddronecampaignswithoutacknowledgingtheirintervention,includingwingpopularityofthesloganAfricansolutionstoAfricanntationwithvariousmodelsofaticformssuchassupportformilitiasorthemobilisationofExamplesincludeFrancescooperaionostensiblyprivatemilitarycontractorswhosecomdinglyportraysastrainingmiserventionswithouthavingtobegivenconflicteofactorscombinedwithceofinfluenceoperationswagedprimarilyviasocialmedia,supplementedbymoretraditionaltifiedbehindsuchdisinformationcampaignsAssuchpracticesbecomemorecommon,uchcampaignstargetcountriesinpublicopinionelsewhereonthecontinentectsthataredirectlylinkedtotheaforementionedodelegatewarfaretoeactionsoflocalactorstoictdynamicsincludingonsandinsurgentstionidentifiesquestionsandtopicsthatmeritfurtherinvestigation.rydeshasorewersThemilitarypracticesandtechnologiesthathaveaccompaniedthisdevelopmenthasnent.8Othersinclude“delegation”,9“proxy”,“surrogate”,10“vicarious”,11“risk-transfer”,12“liquid”,13“indirect”,“low-risk”,or“light-footprint”warfare.Thesetermsareeitherneolo-hasbeencriticisedascreatingsemanticconfusionorbuzzwords”,16whichremaincon-tuallyvagueandanalyticallyweakcanbedifferentiatedintheliteraturetionwhichalsoincludesothertechniquesforoutsourcimisingtherisktoonesownmilitaryduenoenceeprivatemilitarycompaniesregionalstatesandtheirsecuanincreasedrttoothermilitaryationtobothtechnologicalandhumansurrogates.yenvironmentsratherthanexercisingdirectcontroloverterritories.28Moreover,technologicalinnovationhasopenedupnewpossibili-andattackmobiletargetsFinallyprivateanimportantindustrywithclientsrangingfromgovernmentstotransnationalcorporations.31tualdebateconcernsthenotionofhybridwarfareandrelatedtermsarystrategicthinkingfromropeanactorsThepopulareviefcydebateprovokedaproliferationofdifferingconceptualisalatedincludinggreyzoneirregular“protracted”or“ambiguouswarfare”,addingtoryovertandcovertmeasurestotargetnotonlyocoinedcriticalinfrastructure–andinfluencecampaigns.40InfluenceordisinformationcampaignsluencebycontrollingnarrativesintheinformationnggroupsinsocietyHeretheconceptsofhyrmationwarfareintertwinevolvedacombinationofregularmilitaryandnon-conventionalmeasures.44Moreover,allcouldcontributetoescalation.45nngofremotewarfareAfterallforeignvonunarzonesinvolvelowcostlowriskinterventionsatarmstenoutsourcedtonon-stateactors.llinksemglobalisationshiftsinglobalpowerrelationsdigitalisationandtechnologicalinnovationinweaponry.Globalisation,understoodastheac-celerationandintensificationofglobalconnectionshascausedheightenedthreatpercep-ghavereinforcedaMeanwhilelongtermtrendsineconomicdevelopmentandwealthaccumulationhavemilitaryinterventionInotherwordsconymultipolarityThetesreluctantorunabletousemultilateralinstitutionstoenforcerulesgoverningmilitaryowsmiddlepowerstointerveneatrelativelylowcostandriskfdeniabilityattheinternationallevelTechnologicalinnovationhasfacilitatedthetrendtowardsarm’s-lengthinterventionsthroughthedevelopmentofcombatdronescoupledwiththegrowingsophisticationofsurveillanceandreconnaissancetechnology.Advancesininformationtechnologyanddigi-wingroleofelectronicwarfareoperationsInAfricainparticulardigitalisationisaccompaniedbyanotheridlybecomemoreurbanandtondigitaltechnologyforcriticalinfrastructureandinformationecosystemsareinbletothekindofhybridwarfaretacticsseeninindustrialisedcountriesaybeturnedagainstthosepartakinginitTodayauthorierestsictsslyawhilethemajorityofthepopulationresortstotraditionalmediaoutlets.Similarly,criticalinfrastructureonthecon-olessreliantondigitalinterconnecttackscouldbecomemorecommonasdigitalisationproceedsapaceonthecontinent.54hybriddynamicsremainslimited.sblurredthedistinctionbetweencombatantsandciviliansUndertheUSledestrikesoutsideactivewarzoneswerenofenceAttheyintoaconstantthreatforentirecommuareasdesignatedforcounterterrorismoperationsConsideringtheincreasedisconstantifestitselfonaglobalscalehiphasalsoquestionedthenotionofdistanceattachedtoremotewaroliticalconsequenceswithininterveningstatesNotonlyedCrimeheapplicationofdomesticcounterinsurgencymeasuresaimedatregulatingterroristthreats,fwarfareFordroneoperomesaubiquitouscondiionhybridwarfarealsoblursthetandofficiallyacknowlseektomouldthesociopoliticalenvironibleiatethebeginningorendofhostilitiesiesityrRemoteRemotewarfareanddelegationinAfricaipheralMilitaryinterventionsinAfricawerethereforeoftenconsiderederwasanattractiveoptionforpolicingremoteareas.hoicetinenttancetolocalpartnersandincreasinglydronesecurityforcivilianspacingwithseveralEUnuedtoexpandshadunintendedconsequencessuchasincreaseadasalandcovertordeniableinterventioninparticularformilitaryinterventionandtherebycontributestotheescalationofterargumentshowevermaintainthatalowerthresholdcouldalsomeanacasualtyconflictsuchasgenocideTheeithersideoftheargumentremainslargelyanecdotaltodate.thatremotewarfarecanhaveunintendedandcounterproductiveconsequencesonconflictdynamicsInPakistanUStedagainstthecivilianpulationAsextremistgroupsrelocatedgeographicallydronestrikesledtoradicalisafortsinMalihaveattimesdisplacedratherthandismantledjihadibouringcountriesThemultitudeofexteralactorsinvolvedinremoteformsofwarfareandthecombinationoftheirlightfootprintavyandsaturatingeffectsinNigerwithpotentiallydestabilisliferationofintervenwersemployingremotewarfareundoubtedlyimprovesthenegotiatingpositionofwiththewell-establishedprincipal-agentproblemwhenpursuingtheirinterventionsghproxiesincludinghostgovernmentseareexceptionstothisrulenesallowcashstrappedAfricangovernmentsyAprominentexamplewherethisprovedcriticalinerargetcriticscasualtiesofficiallyrecognisedaslinkedtorikesorSpecialForcesoperationsaresignificantlylowerthanaccountscompiledetedbydronesrunsasystematicdatacollectionmechanismandofficialstatisticsonciviliancas-evereeconomiceducationalandmentalhealthimplicationsoftheoptionscasualtieswhileniedbyinrgescalekillingsofciviliansandtheuseofotherinternationallybannedtacssecretiveactivitiesThepossibilityofpublicscrutinyorprosecutionunncreasingtheopportunityfortheabuseoftysituationsininterventioncontextsaswellasconceptualandhodologicalchallengesfurtherhamperthecollectionofreliableandtimelydataonthexecobstructinvestigationintocivilianharmandtolegitimisefutureinterventionsActerveningpowersdonotadmittoenactivelydenyhavingamilitarypresenceatallPlausibleandimplausibledeniabilityhavebeenaparticularhallmarkofrecentinterven-etoconcealtheirowninvolveentsabilitytocountertheassaultsilityassociatedwithrelackoftransparencyandtotheambiguouscommunicationpoliciesassociatedwitharm’slengthintervention.102Suchenvironmentsarevulnerabletodisinformationcampaigns.103Acreditingmultilateralinstitutions,capitalisingonexistinganti-Frenchnarratives,andfur-ringproRussiansentimentthemultipolarity,particularlyinAfricaandtheMiddleEast.eefthetrendtowardsremotewarfareothenegaroadowingtothegrowingmediatisationofwarions