某公司增长的思考英文版

ThinkingaboutGrowthTechniekenvanStrategischeAnalyseProf.WouterDePloeyI. WhygrowII. TheevolutionofgrowthportfoliosIII. WhatgreatgrowersdoProfitablegrowthdrivesprincipalbusinessobjectivesOrganisationalvitalityCompetitivesustainabilityShareholdervalueJobcreationValue-creatingrevenuegrowthdrivesprincipalbusinessobjectives.Growthisnotanendinitself.‘Growthispureoxygen.Itcreatesavital,enthusiasticcorporationwherepeopleseegenuineopportunity.Theytakebiggerchances.Theyworkharderandsmarter.Inthatwaygrowthismorethanoursinglemostimportantfinancialdriver,it’sanessentialpartofourcorporateculture.It’swhysomanytalentedleaderswanttoworkforPepsiCoratherthanlotsofotherfinecorporations.’WayneCalloway,formerPepsiCoCEOGrowthdrivesorganisationalvitalityI. WhygrowII. TheevolutionofgrowthportfoliosIII. WhatgreatgrowersdoThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrowthacross3HorizonsBuildingbusinessesthroughastaircaseofinitiativesAcompanyasaportfolioofstaircasesConcurrentmanagementacross

3Horizons

Timeframe(years)ProfitHorizon3Createviable

optionsHorizon2Buildemerging

businessesHorizon1Extendanddefendcorebusinesses3HorizonsofgrowthHorizon1Extendanddefend

corebusinessesHorizon2BuildemergingbusinessesHorizon3Createviable

optionsTypesofbusinessesCorebusinessesunderpinningcurrentprofitabilityNewbusinessesandextensionsofexistingbusinessesfuellingrevenuegrowthOptionstobuildfuturebusinessesManagementimperativeUnlockincrementalgrowth,thenmanageforvalueasthebusinessdeclinesExerciseoptions,assemblerequiredcapabilities,anddrivebusiness-buildinginitiativesSourceoptions(ideas,relationships,assets)forfuturegrowthandtestviabilityofbusinessconceptsPrimaryfocusBottom-lineperformanceandprofitabilityTop-linegrowthandcapitalefficiencyFuturepotentialandrobustnessacrossmultiplescenariosBalancedgrowthatCoca-ColaAmatil

TimeframeAustralasia1965Australia(69)1988NewZealand(55)WesternEurope1982Austria(42)1995Switzerland(35)ProfitYearofentry(consumptionofCoca-ColaAmatilproductsinlitrespercapita)Horizon3CreateviableoptionsHorizon2Buildemerging

businessesEasternEurope1991Hungary(30)1991CzechRepublic(14)1992Slovakia(11)1994Slovenia(25)1995Poland(8)1995Romania(15)1995Croatia(14)SoutheastAsia1991Indonesia(2)1997Philippines(15)FormerSovietrepublics1994Belarus(2)1994Ukraine(1)China/IndiaOptionwithRobert

Kuok?OptionwithSanMiguelOther(e.g.,furtherfranchises,smartcards,newproducts)Horizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesFinancialcharacteristicsHorizons2and3:Coca-ColaAmatilexample(Dec96)Forecastcashcontribution19961996A$Millions19271-12Forecastcashcontribution20151996A$Millions334727228CapexLowHighMediumRealgrowthinpre-capexcashflow1996–201555%227%911%Estimatedmarketvalue30%50%20%TimeframeProfitHorizon3FormerSovietrepublicsChina/AsiaOther(e.g.,furtherfranchises,smartcards,newproducts)Horizon2EasternEuropeIndonesiaHorizon1AustralasiaWesternEuropeChallengeofsimultaneouslymanaging3Horizons•Profit•ROIC•Revenue•NPV•Optionvalue•Businessmaintainers•Businessbuilders•Championsandvisionaries•Fullyassembledcapabilityplatform•Capabilitiesbeingacquiredordeveloped•CapabilityrequirementsmaybeunclearMetricsPeopleCapabilitiesHorizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesHorizon2BuildemergingbusinessesHorizon3CreateviableoptionsProfitTimeframeUnsustainablepatternsWeakStrongStrong,butunderattackRunningoutofsteamIdeasbutnotbuildingbusinessesFailingtoseedforthefutureLosingtherighttogrowLotsofexcitingoptionsbutnobodybuildingabusinessBuildingnextgenerationofbusinesses,butnotsecuringlong-termfutureOverfocusedoncorebusiness,restrictingfutureprospectsExcessivefocusongrowthatexpenseofcorebusinessCorebusinessunderseriousthreatwithnoemergingnewbusinessesUndersiege************************************ThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrowthacross3HorizonsBuildingbusinessesthroughastaircaseofinitiativesAcompanyasaportfolioofstaircasesGrowthstaircasedynamicsEachsteponstaircase•Capturesanopportunity•Buildsnewcapabilities•CreatesnewoptionsforthenextstepCapabilityplatformBusiness-specificcompetences,growth-enablingcompetences,privilegedassets,specialrelationshipsNewcapabilitiesRequiredfuturecapabilitiesExistingcapabilitiesExistingcapabilitiescapabilitiesNewNewcapabilitiesRequiredfuturecapabilitiesRequiredfuturecapabilitiesRequiredfuturecapabilitiesAspirationCoca-ColaAmatil’’sEuropeanstaircaseRelationshipandcredibilitywithTheCoca-ColaCompanyCapabilitiesdevelopmentStrongbrandsRegionaleconomiesofscaleanddistributionManufacturingexpertise‘Ihaveavisionthatbytheyear2000,CCA’soutputinEuropewillgofrom400millionunitcasesatthemomentto1billion’’MuhtarKent,CCAEuropeanManagingDirectorLimitedplatformofbeveragecapabilities1964-7219821991-931987-911994-96Acquires4AustralianCoca-ColafranchisesAcquiresAustrianfranchisesGrazViennaAcquiresfurtherAustrianfranchisesHungaryCzechRepublicSlovakiaAcquiresfranchisesinBelarusUkraineSloveniaPoland(66%)Romania(50%)CroatiaSwitzerlandAcquiresfranchisesinMödlingStPoltenLandeggSteyrGmundenKlangenfurtDombirnSalzburgSeedgrowthoptionsTestbusinessmodelReplicateprovenbusinessmodelManageforprofitabilitySourceandsecureoptionsforfuturegrowthTestcommercialviabilityofbusinessconceptRealisegrowthpotentialthroughbusiness-buildinginitiativesMaximisegrowthpotentialbyunlockingincrementalgrowth,thenmanagevalueindeclineGenericgrowthstaircaseHungaryCzechRepublicSlovakiaAcquiresfranchisesinSeedgrowthoptionsTestbusinessmodelReplicateprovenbusinessmodelManageforprofitabilityCoca-ColaAmatil’’sEuropeanstaircase1964-7219821991-931987-911994-96Acquires4AustralianCoca-ColafranchisesAcquiresAustrianfranchisesAcquiresfurtherAustrianfranchisesBelarusUkraineSloveniaPolandRomaniaCroatiaSwitzerlandAcquiresfranchisesinMöödlingStPoltenLandeggSteyrGmundenKlangenfurtDombirnSalzburgGrazViennaSourcesofvaluecreation:Coca-ColaAmatilSuperiorfront-lineexecutionPositionaladvantageInsight/foresightSeedgrowthoptionsReplicateprovenbusinessmodelManageforprofitabilityTestbusinessmodel‘Althoughthecurrentlevelofsoftdrinkconsumptionislow……thelocalsoftdrinkmarketisexpectedtogrowdramaticallyinthe1990s’’DeanWills,Chairman1991annualreportExample:In1991,CCAstartedanewstaircaseinIndonesia,wherepercapitasoftdrinkconsumptionwas~2%ofAustralia’’sconsumption‘Theadvantagesofoperatingintwoterritoriesadjoiningoneanother,versustwoinisolation,aretangible’’DeanWills,Chairman1994annualreportExample:InEurope,CCA’’sgrowthformulaisbasedonsecuringcontiguousfranchisesanddrivingoutcostviarationalisation‘TheCoca-ColaCompanymeasurestheperformanceofitsbottlersagainst3simplecriteria(expandingsalesofCoca-Colaproducts,boostingpercapitaconsumption,investinginCoca-Colabrands).Coca-ColaAmatilisastarperformeronallthreecounts.TheAustraliancompanyisthecurrentdarlingoftheCokesystem’’BRW,13September,1991Example:CCA’’sfront-linemarketingskillsareamongthebestintheworldThreekeyconceptsBalancinggrowthacross3HorizonsBuildingbusinessesthroughastaircaseofinitiativesAcompanyasaportfolioofstaircasesMappingstaircasestoHorizonsTimeframeProfitHorizon1Horizon2Horizon3CreateviableoptionsSeedgrowthoptionsReplicateprovenbusinessmodelManageforprofitabilityTestbusinessmodelBuildemergingbusinessesExtendanddefendcorebusinesses3HorizonsasaportfolioofstaircasesHorizon1ExtendanddefendcorebusinessesHorizon2BuildemergingbusinessesHorizon3CreateviableoptionsTimeframeMaturestaircasesDevelopingstaircasesEmbryonicstaircasesProfitCoca-ColaAmatil’sportfolioofstaircases4morefranchisesinAustria1990–91Horizon1Horizon2Horizon3Coca-ColaAmatilHorizonsCoca-ColaAmatilstaircasesAcquisitionandoperationof4AustralianfranchisesAustralianfranchisesFijiNZfranchiseRemainderofNZandAustralianfranchisesPNG1964–851986–881989–9019912jointventuresinIndonesiaControlofJVsJakartaandNorthSumatrafranchisesConsoli-dationinto1nationalfranchise1991199219931995ViennaandGraz4AustrianfranchisesSwitzerland19821987–891995–96CzechandHungarySlovakiaSloveniaPolandCroatiaRomania1991199219941995–96UkraineBelarusInfra-structureFormerSovietrepublicsEasternEuropeWesternEuropeIndonesiaAustralasiaWesternEuropeAustralasiaEasternEuropeIndonesiaFormerSovietrepublics19941995-96Disney’’sportfolioevolutionAnimationCharacterlicensing19201930194019501960197019801990MusicpublishingBookpublishingDisneystoresDirectmailSoftwaredevelopment,visualeffectsAnimatedfeaturefilmsTelevisionshowsMotionpicturesTouchstonefilms,homevideosDisneychannelMiramaxacquisitionABCTVnetworkDisneylandWaltDisneyWorldEPCOTDisney/MGMStudiosAnimalKingdom,DisneyAmericaHoteldevelopmentDisneyInstitutevacationsResortsCruiselines,plannedcommunitiesTokyoDisney-landEuroDisneyKCAL–TVHockeyBaseballLivetheatreHollywoodPicturesHollywoodRecordsFilmedentertainmentThemeparksVacations,resorts&propertydevelopmentLiveentertainmentBroadcastingMerchandising,music,andpublishingI.WhygrowII.TheevolutionofgrowthportfoliosIII. WhatgreatgrowersdoCharacteristicsofsuccessfulgrowthcompaniesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesCommittogrowthTherighttogrowStretchtargetsandvaluesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesEarntherighttogrowAchieveandsustainoperationalexcellenceDivestunprofitableordistractingbusinessesBuildthefaithofinvestorsandfinanciersCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesTherighttogrowStretchtargetsandvaluesDivestunprofitableordistractingbusinesses‘90%oftheSaraLeeCorporationof1974isgone.’’(22significantdivestmentsinpast15years)JohnBryan,CEO‘...Wedivestanypartofthebusinesswearenothappywith...weareverydisciplined.Weareconvincedthatthebenefitsofworldwideleadershiparesogreatthatwecan’taffordtowastetime,money,andmanagementtalentwherethatleadershipisnotachievable.’AlfredZeien,CEO‘Wehavedivestedintheeighties$10billionworthofmarginalbusinessesandmade$19billionofacquisitions.’’JackWelch,CEO‘WedonothangontobusinesseswherewecannotbeNumber1or2.’RichardGibb,President,SignalDivisionWinningconfidenceofshareholdersatDisneyStrategyTargetaudienceExampleMajorshareholder,SidBassEisnerandWellsflewtomeetBassafter2daysonjobtogainhissupportBroaderinvestmentcommunityActiveparticipationin‘‘Disneymagic’IndividualshareholdersConcernedinvestmentcommunityOne-on-onediscussionsRoadshowpresentationsTargetedpressconferencesEisner,Wells,&KatzenbergheldbrokersmeetingstogainsupportforSilverScreenfilmfinancingAnnualgeneralmeetingsareabigfamilyeventatAnaheim(1984attendedby~8000)WhenDisneyfacedaseriesofdisruptions(Wells’’sdeath,Katzenberg’’sdeparture,Eisner’’sheartsurgery),itheldpressconferencesRaisethebarthroughstretchtargetsandvaluesSetstretchtargetsKillerfinancialtargetsInspiringaspirationthatevolvesovertimeBalancewithstrongvaluesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesTherighttogrowStretchtargetsandvaluesInspiringaspiration‘Youreallyneedtoarticulateavisionandwillittohappen.Ourpeoplegetintoxicatedwithavision.Thatvisionischargedbysomethingthatisdream-drivenandgivestheorganisationdirectionforthefuture.’‘Onekeyobjective—tobetheworld’spremierpackagingcompany.’‘Betheworld’spremierentertainmentcompany.’‘Tobetterhumanityastheworld’’sleadinghealthcarecompany.’‘Iwanttobuildabusinessthatcangrowforever.’BuildgrowthenginesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesOpportunitypipelinePlatformofcapabilitiesExpansive

mindsetEmbraceanexpansivemindsetRecogniseandutilise7degreesofstrategicfreedomBreakconstrainingmindsetsBroadentraditionalmarketdefinitionsIndustryboundariesGeographicboundariesBusinesssystemboundariesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipExpansive

mindsetOpportunitypipelineBuildgrowthenginesFanorganisationalpassionPlatformofcapabilitiesMovesintonewcompetitivearenasExistingcompetitivearenavsExpansion

intonewgeographiesExistinggeographyvsImprove-mentofindustrystructureExistingindustrystructurevsInnovationinvaluedeliverysystemExistingvaluedeliverysystemvsInnovationinproductsandservicesExistingproductsandservicesvsNewcustomersExistingcustomersvsSevendegreesofstrategicfreedomCurrentbusinessGillette’’ssevendegreesofstrategicfreedomDroveconsolidationofstationeryindustrywithacquisitionsofPapermate,Waterman,andParkerAcquiredWilkinsonSwordoutsideUSandECin1991UseofdualsaleschannelswithOral-BandBraunbothsellingelectricdentalcaresystemSaleofWatermanpensthroughParker’’scorporategiftchannelsSuccessfullymigratedconsumerstonewer,highermarginshavingproductsLeveragedGillettebrandinadjacentproductsToiletries,stationery,smallelectricalappliances,oralcare,andnowbatteries70%ofsalesandprofitsgeneratedoutsideUSDominantandprofitablepositionsinmostemergingmarketsBuiltfemalecustomerbasewithSensortechnologyMovesintonewcompetitivearenasExistingcompetitivearenavsExpansion

intonewgeographiesExistinggeographyvsImprove-mentofindustrystructureExistingindustrystructurevsInnovationinvaluedeliverysystemExistingvaluedeliverysystemvsInnovationinproductsandservicesExistingproductsandservicesvsNewcustomersExistingcustomersvsCurrentbusinessMassivebrandandvolumebuildingthroughadvertisingandpromotionBroadentraditionalmarketdefinitions5%ofthepersonaluse/personalcareconsumerproductsmarket20%ofmen’sgroomingproductsmarket60%ofthebladeandrazormarketBladesandrazorsBladesandrazorsShavingcreamDeodorant/antiperspirantAftershaveMen’sgroomingproductsWomen’sshavingandgroomingproductsShampoo/haircareOralcareCCA’sexpansivemindsetwithfocusedproductofferingFrom……Non-beveragesalesdecreasedfrom$1.4billionto0Poultrysold1989BeveragesPackagingsold1990Printingsold1990Tobaccosold1989DiversifiedAustralianconglomeratein1985Snackfoodssold1992…ToBeveragesalesincreasedfrom$0.3billionto$3.0billionSpecialistglobalbeverageleaderin199616countries368millionconsumersIndonesiaPNGEuropeFijiAustraliaFilltheopportunitypipelineResourceprocessestofilltheopportunitypipelineDesigncompetitivelydefensiblebusinessconceptsCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipPlatformofcapabilitiesExpansivemindsetOpportunitypipelineBuildgrowthenginesCapitalOne’s‘GoldenGate’processGrowthopportunities(GO)groupIdeagenerationInitialevaluationLedbyVPofnewbusinessdevelopment35full-timeanalystsIdentifiesgrowthopportunities‘Goldengate’’groupanalysesotherindustriesforopportunitiesEmployeesencouragedtopursueopportunities‘GO’’groupanalysesideasEachscreenedideaalloweda4-week‘‘sniff’’byteamof2/3analystsBestideassetupaspilotbusinessesandassigneda‘‘CEO’’GoalExamine100ideasperyeartoinvent1newbusinessAssembleaplatformofcapabilitiesDefinecapabilitiesbroadlyAssembleneededcapabilitiesBundlecapabilitiesfordistinctivenessCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesOpportunitypipelineExpansivemindsetPlatformofcapabilitiesCapabilityplatformGrowth-enablingcompetencesPrivilegedassetsSpecialrelationshipsBusiness-specificcompetencesDefinecapabilitiesbroadlyBrandsNetworksInfrastructureInformationIntellectualpropertyAccess-conveyingrelationshipsComplementarycapabilityrelationshipsAcquisitionFinancing,riskmanagement,anddealstructuringCapitalproductivityRegulatorymanagementLicensesILLUSTRATIVEDisneybrandnameGovernmentrelations(Florida)Promotionpartners——e.g.,McDonald’’s,MattelTalent——actors,animatorsPrivilegedassetsSpecialrelationshipsDisneycharactersFilmarchivesThemeparksandpropertiesNOTEXHAUSTIVEFinancialdealstructuringCross-promotionalmarketingskillsGrowth-enablingcompetencesBusiness-specificcompetencesThemeparkservicequalityWorld-classanimationskillsPropertydevelopmentDisney’’sbundleofcapabilitiesCultivateentrepreneurshipCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesReinforcingsystemsandincentivesConnectedcommunitiesBusinessbuildersConnectedcommunitiesCreateconnectedcommunitiesOrganisearoundsmallcommunitiesLinkcommunitiestoachievesynergyandscaleadvantagesCommittogrowthCultivateentre-preneurshipBuildgrowthenginesReinforcingsystemsandincentivesBusinessbuildersCreatingconnectivityamongcommunitiesBuildinstitutionalfoundationValues,vision,andidentityCreateeconomiesofscaleSharingresourcesIncreaseperformanceofeachunitTransferringbestpracticeBuildastronggeneralmanagementgroup;createopportunitiesforadvance-mentandrejuvenationMovingpeoplearound