某咨询分析方法PenetrationCurve课件

Author:NancyGreenePenetrationCurve(S-Curve)March1998Copyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.1Author:NancyGreenePenetratiAgenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodologyCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.2AgendaConceptCopyright©1998

Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases:earlyadoption/trialmassadoptionsaturation/substitutiondeclineTheproductlife-cyclegeneratesaseriesofmarketpenetrationratesthattendtofollowaspecificpattern,calledanS-curve(orpenetrationcurve)Giventhepatternofpenetrationcurvesovertime,andgiventhatthisrelationshipholdstosomeextentinalmosteverycase,penetrationcurvescanbeapowerfultoolinpredictingthegrowthofnewproductsWhatisaPenetrationCurve?(S-Curve)3ProductscanbethoughtofasProductLife-Cycle

TimeVolumeProductscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases.Earlyadoption/trialMassadoptionSaturation/substitutionDeclineDrivenbypeoplewhoalwaysadoptnewthingsearlyandfueltheproduct’sinitialgrowthTheproductbecomesacceptedbythegeneralmarket;characterizedbyrapidproductgrowthTheproducthaseithersaturatedthemarket,orisalreadybeingsubstitutedforbyanotherproductthatisinanearlierphaseoftheproductlifecycleThedeclineoftheproduct,drivenbycompletesubstitutionfororreplacementwithanotherproduct4ProductLife-CycleTimeVolumePCharacteristicsofPenetrationCurves

Penetrationcanoccurattheexpenseofanexistingproduct,oritcandrivenewmarketstogrowSeveralfactorswillinfluencetheendstate,orsaturationpoint,ofaproduct:duration/speedofproductlife-cyclecompetitiveforcesinnovationculture/societyWhenconsideringpenetrationcurves,thereareafewcharacteristicstokeepinmind:5CharacteristicsofPenetrationAgenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology6AgendaConcept6ApplicationsofPenetrationCurves

Validating/determiningmarketgrowthforaneworestablishedproductShowingprecedentsforsuccessofaproductthroughexistingpenetrationcurvesPredictingthesaturationlevelforaproductDeterminingmarketentrystrategyortiming,giventhepredictedpenetrationofaproductDeterminingproductmanagementorphase-out,giventhespeedofnewproducts’adoptionPenetrationcurvescanbeusefulinaddressingaseriesofdifferentstrategicquestionswhicharisewhennewproductsenteramarket.7ApplicationsofPenetrationCuAgenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology8AgendaConcept8

In1994,theNationalInstitutesofHealth(NIH)issuedastatementconfirmingthatmostulcersarestronglyassociatedwiththepresenceofabacteria(H.Pylori).Whilepreviously,doctorshadbeenadvisedtotreatulcersymptomswithanti-secretorydrugs,NIHnowrecommendsthatulcerpatientswithH.Pyloriinfectionsalsobetreatedwithantibiotics.Thenewtreatmentcuresnotonlyulcersymptoms,buttheunderlyingcauseofthedisease.In1997,anewdevicewasgrantedapatentbytheU.S.PatentOfficewhichwilltesthumanbreathforthepresenceofH.PyloriabloodtestforH.PyloriisalreadyonthemarketdoctorsmayalsotestforH.Pyloriusingtissuesamplesobtainedthroughendoscopy,arelativelyinvasiveandpainfulmedicalprocedureOurclientisconsideringbuyingthepatentandbelievesthatthebreathtesttechnologyholdssignificantadvantagesoverbothbloodtestsandendoscopylessinvasivethanendoscopymoreaccuratethanbloodtestsSituation:HowlargeisthemarketforH.Pyloritestsovertime?KeyQuestion:ABaincaseteamusedpenetrationcurveanalysistoexaminehowquicklymedicalpracticeschange.DisguisedCaseSituation(1of2)9In1994,theNationalInstitu

Asearchoftheexistingliteraturerevealedthatin1995,only5%ofdoctorsweretestingpatientssuspectedofhavinganulcerforH.Pyloriin1991,thefigurewascloseto1%InordertodeterminehowquicklytheNIHreportwouldimpactdoctors’behavior,ourcaseteamsurveyeddoctorsinthefallof1997:60%saidtheyweretestingtheirsuspectedulcerpatientsforH.Pylori15%saidtheytreatedallsuspectedulcerpatientswithacourseofantibiotics---withoutfirsttestingforH.Pyloritheteamagreedthatthisrepresenteda“ceiling”ontesting:15%ofdoctorswouldalwaystreatH.PyloriwithouttestingforitResearch:Historicpenetration:1991=1%1995=5%1997=60%Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationCurveData:Combiningsecondaryresearchwithsurveys,theteamobtainedafewhistoricpenetrationpoints,aswellastheprojectedsaturationpoint.DisguisedCaseSituation(2of2)10AsearchoftheexistingliteH.PyloriTestingMarket

=datapoint=predictedpenetrationcurve

(basedonregression)Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationcurveanalysissmoothedtheknowndatapointsintoanS-curvethatshowedanaggressiveschedulefortheadoptionofH.Pyloritests.11H.PyloriTestingMarket=datAgenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology12AgendaConcept12

Gatherhistoricdataandsetupspreadsheet

Picksaturationpointthisshouldbethelogicalceilingonaproduct’spenetration(i.e.noteveryhomewillhaveacomputer,eveninthemostoptimisticofscenarios)saturationpoint=100%inthisexampleCalculatepenetrationratio(historicpercent)/(saturationpoint-historicpercent)198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatioMethodology(1of3)13Gatherhistoricdataandset

198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatio7.5957.5967.5977.597ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetrationratio)198919901991199219931994etc.25.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatio7.5957.5967.5967.5977.5977.598etc.ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetrationratio)PredictedPenetrationRatio0.9661.268etc.TakethenaturallogoftheyearsandthepenetrationratioRegressthelogofyearsvs.thelogofthepenetrationratioUseresultstocalculatepredictedpenetrationratiouseformulaforaline,andtakeanti-logantilogof(ln(year)xx-coefficient+b)Methodology(2of3)14198925.0%YearsHistoricPenetr

Calculatepredictedpenetrationusingthepredictedpenetrationratioandsaturationpoint((predictedpenetrationratioxsaturationpoint)/(1+predictedpenetrationratio))19891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200025.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.7407.5957.5967.5967.5977.5977.5987.5987.5997.5997.6007.6007.601ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetrationratio)PredictedPenetrationRatio0.9661.2681.6642.1822.8633.7554.9246.457PenetrationRatio49.1%55.9%62.5%68.6%74.1%79.0%83.1%86.6%PredictedPenetrationMethodology(3of3)15CalculatepredictedpenetratiAuthor:NancyGreenePenetrationCurve(S-Curve)March1998Copyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.16Author:NancyGreenePenetratiAgenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodologyCopyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.17AgendaConceptCopyright©1998

Productscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases:earlyadoption/trialmassadoptionsaturation/substitutiondeclineTheproductlife-cyclegeneratesaseriesofmarketpenetrationratesthattendtofollowaspecificpattern,calledanS-curve(orpenetrationcurve)Giventhepatternofpenetrationcurvesovertime,andgiventhatthisrelationshipholdstosomeextentinalmosteverycase,penetrationcurvescanbeapowerfultoolinpredictingthegrowthofnewproductsWhatisaPenetrationCurve?(S-Curve)18ProductscanbethoughtofasProductLife-Cycle

TimeVolumeProductscanbethoughtofasfollowingalife-cyclethathasseveraldistinctphases.Earlyadoption/trialMassadoptionSaturation/substitutionDeclineDrivenbypeoplewhoalwaysadoptnewthingsearlyandfueltheproduct’sinitialgrowthTheproductbecomesacceptedbythegeneralmarket;characterizedbyrapidproductgrowthTheproducthaseithersaturatedthemarket,orisalreadybeingsubstitutedforbyanotherproductthatisinanearlierphaseoftheproductlifecycleThedeclineoftheproduct,drivenbycompletesubstitutionfororreplacementwithanotherproduct19ProductLife-CycleTimeVolumePCharacteristicsofPenetrationCurves

Penetrationcanoccurattheexpenseofanexistingproduct,oritcandrivenewmarketstogrowSeveralfactorswillinfluencetheendstate,orsaturationpoint,ofaproduct:duration/speedofproductlife-cyclecompetitiveforcesinnovationculture/societyWhenconsideringpenetrationcurves,thereareafewcharacteristicstokeepinmind:20CharacteristicsofPenetrationAgenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology21AgendaConcept6ApplicationsofPenetrationCurves

Validating/determiningmarketgrowthforaneworestablishedproductShowingprecedentsforsuccessofaproductthroughexistingpenetrationcurvesPredictingthesaturationlevelforaproductDeterminingmarketentrystrategyortiming,giventhepredictedpenetrationofaproductDeterminingproductmanagementorphase-out,giventhespeedofnewproducts’adoptionPenetrationcurvescanbeusefulinaddressingaseriesofdifferentstrategicquestionswhicharisewhennewproductsenteramarket.22ApplicationsofPenetrationCuAgenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology23AgendaConcept8

In1994,theNationalInstitutesofHealth(NIH)issuedastatementconfirmingthatmostulcersarestronglyassociatedwiththepresenceofabacteria(H.Pylori).Whilepreviously,doctorshadbeenadvisedtotreatulcersymptomswithanti-secretorydrugs,NIHnowrecommendsthatulcerpatientswithH.Pyloriinfectionsalsobetreatedwithantibiotics.Thenewtreatmentcuresnotonlyulcersymptoms,buttheunderlyingcauseofthedisease.In1997,anewdevicewasgrantedapatentbytheU.S.PatentOfficewhichwilltesthumanbreathforthepresenceofH.PyloriabloodtestforH.PyloriisalreadyonthemarketdoctorsmayalsotestforH.Pyloriusingtissuesamplesobtainedthroughendoscopy,arelativelyinvasiveandpainfulmedicalprocedureOurclientisconsideringbuyingthepatentandbelievesthatthebreathtesttechnologyholdssignificantadvantagesoverbothbloodtestsandendoscopylessinvasivethanendoscopymoreaccuratethanbloodtestsSituation:HowlargeisthemarketforH.Pyloritestsovertime?KeyQuestion:ABaincaseteamusedpenetrationcurveanalysistoexaminehowquicklymedicalpracticeschange.DisguisedCaseSituation(1of2)24In1994,theNationalInstitu

Asearchoftheexistingliteraturerevealedthatin1995,only5%ofdoctorsweretestingpatientssuspectedofhavinganulcerforH.Pyloriin1991,thefigurewascloseto1%InordertodeterminehowquicklytheNIHreportwouldimpactdoctors’behavior,ourcaseteamsurveyeddoctorsinthefallof1997:60%saidtheyweretestingtheirsuspectedulcerpatientsforH.Pylori15%saidtheytreatedallsuspectedulcerpatientswithacourseofantibiotics---withoutfirsttestingforH.Pyloritheteamagreedthatthisrepresenteda“ceiling”ontesting:15%ofdoctorswouldalwaystreatH.PyloriwithouttestingforitResearch:Historicpenetration:1991=1%1995=5%1997=60%Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationCurveData:Combiningsecondaryresearchwithsurveys,theteamobtainedafewhistoricpenetrationpoints,aswellastheprojectedsaturationpoint.DisguisedCaseSituation(2of2)25AsearchoftheexistingliteH.PyloriTestingMarket

=datapoint=predictedpenetrationcurve

(basedonregression)Saturationpoint=85%PenetrationcurveanalysissmoothedtheknowndatapointsintoanS-curvethatshowedanaggressiveschedulefortheadoptionofH.Pyloritests.26H.PyloriTestingMarket=datAgenda

ConceptApplicationCaseexampleMethodology27AgendaConcept12

Gatherhistoricdataandsetupspreadsheet

Picksaturationpointthisshouldbethelogicalceilingonaproduct’spenetration(i.e.noteveryhomewillhaveacomputer,eveninthemostoptimisticofscenarios)saturationpoint=100%inthisexampleCalculatepenetrationratio(historicpercent)/(saturationpoint-historicpercent)198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoricPenetration0.3330.4080.5710.740PenetrationRatioMethodology(1of3)28Gatherhistoricdataandset

1989199019911