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1In1812,NapoleonBonaparte,EmperoroftheFrench,ledhisGrandArmyintoRussia.HewaspreparedforthefierceresistanceoftheRussianpeopledefendingtheirhomeland.HepreparedforthelongmarchacrossRussiansoiltoMoscow,thecapitalcity. ButhewasnotpreparedforthedevastatingenemythatmethiminMoscow--theraw,bitter,bleakRussianwinter.In1941,AdolfHitler,leaderofNaziGermany,launchedanattackagainsttheSovietUnion,asRussiathenwascalled.Hitler'smilitarymightwasunequaled.HiswarmachinehadmoweddownresistanceinmostofEurope.Hitlerexpectedashortcampaignbut,Napoleonbeforehim,wastaughtapainfullesson.TheRussianwinteragaincametotheaidoftheSovietsoldiers.2Eventheautomobileindustry,whichhasremainedlargelyunchangedforthelastseventyyears,isabouttofeeltheeffectsofthecomputerrevolution.Theautomobileindustryranksasamongthemostlucrativeandpowerfulindustriesofthetwentiethcentury.Therearepresently500millioncarsonearth,oronecarforeverypeople.Salesoftheautomobileindustrystandataboutatrilliondollars,makingittheworld'sbiggestmanufacturingindustry.Thecar,andtheroadsittravelson,willberevolutionizedinthetwenty-firstcentury.Thekeytomorrow's"smartcar"willbesenors.Wewillseevehiclesandroadsthatseeandhearandfeelandsmellandtalk andact, predictsBillSpreitzer, technicaldirector of GeneralMotorsCorporation'sITSprogram,whichisdesigningthesmartcarandroadofthefuture.3Mymentor,CurtCarlson,isthewealthiestmaninMinnesota,ownerofahotelandtravelcompanywithsalesintheneighborhoodof$9billion.IhadtogettoameetinginNewY orkday,andCurtgenerouslyofferedmearideinhisjet.IthappenedtobeadayMinnesotawashitwithoneoftheworstsnowstormsinyears.Minneapolis-St.PaulInternationalAirportwasclosedforthefirsttimeindecades.Then,thoughthestormcontinuedtopoundus,theairportopenedarunwayforsmallcraftonly.Asweweretaxiingdownittotakeoff,Curtturnedtomeandsaidgleefully,"Look,Harvey,notracksinthesnow!"CurtCarlson,70yearsoldatthetime,richbeyondanyone'sdreams,couldstillsparklewithexcitementaboutbeingfirst.Frommystandpoint,that'swhatit'sallabout.Preparetowin.Neverstoplearning.Believe yourself,evenwhennooneelsedoes.Findawaytomakeadifference.Thengooutandmakeyourowntracksinthesnow.4ThemerefactthatAmericastillattractsmillionsofpeopleisevidencethatitisnotindecline.Peoplearen'tattractedtoaplaceofdecline.SignsofdeclinearesuretobefoundinaplaceascomplexasAmerica:debt,crime,thehomeless,drugs,dropouts.ButthemaincharacteristicofAmerica,thefirstandmostenduringimpression,isdynamism,energy,aggressiveness,forwardmovement.Itissohardtothinkofthisnationindeclinewhenyouknowthattherearevastregionsofplanetwhichareabsolutelyparalyzed,incapableofanyimprovementatall.ItisdifficultformetoagreewithPaulKennedy'sthesisinTheRiseandFallofGreatPowersthatAmericamustinevitablyfollowhistoricalprecedent.That'sthewayhistoryusedtobe --powerfulnationsdeclinedandgavewaytootherempires.Butmaybethereisanotherwaytolookatwhatishappening.Ihaveasensethatwhatisgoingonhereconcernsmuchmorethanthefateofanation.ItmaybethattheEuro-centeredAmericannationisdecliningasitgiveswaytoanewPacificcivilizationthatwillinclude,butnotbelimitedto,America.Historicallyspeaking,Americamaynotdecline,butinsteadfusewiththePacificculturetocreateakindofvastPacificcollage,amixofHispanicandAsiancultureslinkedthroughthemostmoderncommunicationtechnologies.5ForthirtyyearsnowIhavebeenstudyingmyfellowmen. Idonotknowverymuchaboutthem.Ishrugmyshoulderswhenpeopletellmethattheirfirstimpressionsofapersonarealwaysright.Ithinktheymusthavesmallinsightorgreatvanity.FormyownpartIfindthatthelongerIpeoplethemoretheypuzzleme.ThesereflectionshaveoccurredtomebecauseIreadinthismorning'spaperthatEdwardHydeBurtonhaddiedatKobe.HewasamerchantandhehadbeeninbusinessinJapanformanyyears.Iknewhimverylittle,butheinterestedmebecauseoncehegavemeagreatsurprise.UnlessIhadheardthestoryfromhisownlips,Ishouldneverhavebelievedthathewascapableofsuchanaction.Itwasmorestartlingbecausebothinappearanceandmannerhesuggestedaverydefinitetype.Hereifeverwasamanallofapiece.Hewasatinylittlefellow,notmuchmorethanfivefeetfourinheight,andveryslender,withwhitehair,aredfacemuchwrinkled,andblueeyes.IsupposehewasaboutsixtywhenIknewhim.Hewasalwaysneatlyandquietlydressedaccordancewithhisageandstation.ThoughhisofficeswereinKobe,BurtonoftencamedowntoY okohama.Ihappenedonoccasiontobespendingafewdaysthere,waitingforaship,andIwasintroducedtohimattheBritishClub.Weplayedbridgetogether.Heplayedagoodgameandagenerousone.Hedidnottalkverymuch,eitherthenorlaterwhenwewerehavingdrinks,butwhathesaidwassensible.Hehadaquiet,dryhumor.Heseemedtobepopularattheclubandafterwards,whenhehadgone,theydescribedhimasoneofthebest.IthappenedthatwewerebothstayingattheGrandHotelandnextdayheaskedmetodinewithhim.Imethiswife,fat,elderly,andsmiling,andhistwodaughters.Itwasevidentlyaunitedandaffectionatefamily.IthinkthechiefthingthatstruckmeaboutBurtonwashiskindliness.Therewassomething verypleasinginhismildblueeyes.voicewasgentle;youcouldnotimaginethathecouldpossiblyraiseitinanger;hissmilewasbenign.Herewasamanwhoattractedyoubecauseyoufeltinhimarealloveforhisfellows.Atthesametimehelikedhisgameofcardsandhiscocktail,hecouldtellwithpointagoodandspicystory,andinhisyouthhehadbeensomethingofanathlete.Hewasarichmanandhehadmadeeverypennyhimself.Isupposeonethingthatmadeyoulikehimwasthathewassosmallandfrail;hearousedyourinstinctsofprotection.feltthathecouldnotbeartohurtafly.6AsGodbeypointsout,thestresswefeelarisesnotfromashortageoftime,butfromthesurfeitofthingswetrytocramintoit."It'sthekidinthecandystore,"hesays."There'sjustsomanygoodthingstodo.Thearrayofchoicesisstunning.Ourfreetimeisincreasing,butnotasfastasoursenseofthenecessary."Amoresuccessfulremedymaylieinunderstandingtheproblemratherthanevadingit.Beforetheindustrialrevolution,peoplelivedinsmallcommunitieswithlimitedcommunications.Withintheconfinesoftheirvillage,theycouldreasonablyexpecttoknoweverythingthatwastobeknown,seeeverythingthatwastobeseen,anddoeverythingthatwastobedone.Today,beingcuriousbynature,wearestilltryingtodothesame.Buttheglobalvillageisaworldoflimitlesspossibilities,andwecanneverachieveouraim.Itisnotmoretimeweneed:itisfewerdesires.Weneedtoswitchoffthecell-phoneandleavethechildrentoplaybythemselves.Weneedtobuyless,readlessandtravelless.Weneedtosetboundariesforourselves,orbedoomedtomountingdespair.7Ifoundmyselffullyawakeat5a.m.yesterdayandwentfo
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