区域可持续发展与人地关系行为机制模型发展经济学

区域可持续发展与人地关系行为机制模型研究石敏俊筑波大学区域可持续发展与人地关系行为机制模型研究

区域可持续发展与农业环境政策人地关系行为机制模型框架的建立：外部社会经济因素影响人地关系变化的机制鄂尔多斯高原：人地关系行为机制模型与退耕还林对水土保持影响的比较静态模拟自然科学与社会科学相融合的必要性区域可持续发展与农业环境政策

欧美国家的农业环境政策石油农业的化肥农药高投入导致水质污染等环境问题价格支持政策导致农产品过剩农业环境政策的核心是推行农业粗放化经营，减少化肥农药投入，减少农产品产量对于实行粗放经营的农户给予政策补贴发展中国家的农业环境问题土地退化引起的农业环境问题沙漠化，水土流失，盐碱化环境负荷引起的农业环境问题水质污染，土壤污染土地退化的人为因素人口压力，农业技术水平依赖资源投入的静态增长导致农业粗放再生产和土地利用的平面扩张，土地利用超过环境容量时带来土地退化发展中国家的农业可持续发展解决土地退化问题的出路在于发展可持续集约农业可持续集约农业：通过集约化达到可持续集约化：对少量土地实行集约经营，技术密集投入，提高单位土地面积生产力水平，为大面积退化土地休生养息恢复生态、实现区域可持续发展提供条件保护环境与发展经济的关系发展中国家的农业环境政策解决土地退化问题的农业环境政策应当结合发展可持续集约农业来展开发展可持续集约农业的关键是技术进步，开发实用适用技术实用：实际农业活动中可应用的技术适用：适合当地条件适合当地农户采用的技术发展集约化（技术进步和技术推广）的政策补贴可作为环境保护投资进入环境经济核算人地关系行为机制模型框架：社会经济因素影响人地关系变化的机制影响人地关系和环境生态变化的社会经济因素人口增长市场和价格变动技术进步制度和政策收入和消费期望单一或综合的因果关系分析不能阐明社会经济因素影响人地关系变化的机制ResourceEnvironmentLandUseAgriculturalActivityInstitutionPolicyTechnologyMarketPriceResource

ConstraintImpact

onEnvironmentPopulationgrowth外部社会经济环境与人地关系变化LiteraturereviewFarmhouseholddecisionsonlanduseactivitiesandtechnologicalchoiceaffectthesoilqualityandthereforeplayanimportantroleinaggravatingorreducinglanddegradationprocess.Farmhouseholddecisionsaredependentonrelativepricesofoutput,inputandproductionfactors,andothersocio-economiccircumstancesthatareinfluencedbymacroeconomicandagriculturalpolicy.Agriculturalpoliciesaffectsoildegradationbyinfluencingthelevelofoutput,inputandfactorprices(Heerink,2001).社会经济因素影响环境变化化的机制政策和制度——外部社会经济济环境——农户经济行为为——资源环境变化化反馈：资源环环境变化——农户经济行为为（资源环境境退化对经济济福利的影响响，现在价值值与将来价值值的关系）外部社会经济济环境变化：：价格变动，，技术进步，，资金和信用用约束政策和制度：：经济政策和和环境政策，，资源分配和和资源利用秩秩序ConceptualframeworkPolicyreformSocio-economicenvironmentHouseholddecisionLanddegradationMacroandRegionalModelsHouseholdandVillageModelsBio-economicModelsBio-economichouseholdModelBio-economicvillageModelapproachEconometricestimationapproach:Lackofconsistentdata,especiallylongtimeseriesdataabouteffectofsoildegradation;Difficulttoderivefunctionformofthereduced-formequation.Metamodeling(Decisionrule)approach:Estimateastatisticalrelationshipbetweenexogenousandrelevantendogenousvariables;refertoablack-boxrepresentationofrelationshipbetweenexogenousandendogenousvariables;Bio-economicvillageModel-continueMathematicalprogrammingapproach:AmajoradvantageofLPModelisthatcancombineeconomicbehaviorandbiophysicalprocessinanintegratedframework.Leontiefinput-outputcoefficientspermitsthecombinationofincompatibleeconomicandbiophysicalproductionfunction.AdisadvantageofLPModelisthatmaygeneratevastamountof‘what-if’resultsifsomeofparametersofthemodelarenotknownwithgreataccuracy.鄂尔多斯高高原人地关关系行为机机制模型Bio-economicvillageLPModelShort-termanalysis:oneyearduetouncertaintyVillagemodel:appreciatelevelofanalysisObjectivefunction：maximizingbenefitofhouseholdsProductionfunction：Leontiefinput-outputcoefficientsConsumptionfunction：consumptionchoicebaseduponnutritionandpricesunderconstraintsofbasicnutritionintakedemandandhobbySoilconservationprocess：convertedlandsupplyFeedbackofsoilerosiontoproduction：nofeedbackprocessBio-economicvillageLPModel(1)s.t.(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)Variabledefinition:householddiscountedutility:period:crop:landtype:landendowment:theareaofcropproducedonlandtypeinperiod:theperunitpriceofcroporlivestockoutput:theyieldfunctionforproductionofcropcorlivestockv:avectorofinputsusedinproductionofcropcorlivestockv:theperunitinputpriceforinputVariabledefinition-continue:thecroporlivestockoutputusedforself-consumption:thecroporlivestockoutputusedforself-supply,suchasfodder,draftanimal:theproductionofunitsoflivestockatperiodt:livestock:thewagelevel,suchasseasonaloff-farmwage,constantoff-farmwagehiringlaborwage:theoff-farmlaborsupplyofseasonalpart-timelabororconstantoff-farmlabor:thehiringlaborsupply:familylabor:familylaborinputforfarmactivities:totallaborinputforfarmactivities:discountrateModulesofLPModelProcesses(73)Production(22):croppingcorrespondingtolandtypeCorn,Millet,Potato,Sunflower,Rapeseed,Beans,Goat,Sheep,Hog,CattleSale(11):Corn,Millet,Potato,Sunflower,Rapeseed,Goat,Sheep,Hog,Mutton,Pork,WoolSelf-consumption(6):Corn,Millet,Potato,Beans,Mutton,PorkPurchase(11):Wheat,Rice,Pork,Mutton,Beef,Vegetable,Fertilizers,Pesticide,seeds,CoalSelf-supply(5):Seeds,Fodder,Manure,FirewoodResourcesupply(17):Landsupply(6),Laborsupply(11)Landdegradation(1):SoilerosionModulesofLPModel-continueConstraints(70)Products(12):Resources(30):landconstraints(7);labortimeconstraints(13);laborallocationconstraints(10):familylabor(3),hiringlabor(7)Balance(25):Nutritionandhumandemand(10);Farminginput(11);Livestockinput(4)Rotation(2)Soilerosion(1)LanduseinGe-zhen-yanVillage,Zhunger,InnerMongoliaThepolicymeasureofconvertingslopefieldintoforestandpasturestartedSince2000,withsubsidyof100kggrainand20Yuanfood-forworkper6.7aCroppingsystemandlanduse

TotalFlatfieldTerracefieldSlopefieldSownareaYieldSownareaYieldSownareaYieldSownareaYield

hakg/hahakg/hahakg/hahakg/haCorn7.676,6604.279,2501.275,1002.133,750Millet6.871,8191.471,8505.411,808Rapeseed3.075802.006601.07500Sunflower2.438850.731,0001.69836Potato2.807,5001.077,1251.737,725Beans0.871,4000.471,5000.401,300Total23.70

4.27

7.00

12.43

Agricultureandfarmeconomy

farmtypeunitTotalFarmhouseholdPart-timehouseholdhouseholdperson21129populationperson814932laborperson563422off-farmlaborperson14410seasonaloff-farmlaborperson936constantoff-farmlaborperson514populationperhouseholdpersonperhousehold3.864.083.56cultivatedlandhaperhousehold1.191.430.87familyincomeYuanperhousehold8,9049,6457,998farmincomeYuanperhousehold5,9459,0182,188off-farmincomeYuanperhousehold2,9606275,810ratioofoff-farmincome%33%7%73%ratiooflivestockincomewithinfarmincome%66%69%51%PricesofagriculturalproductscommodityfarmgatepricesfarmpurchasepricescommodityfarmpurchasepricesCorn0.931.00Wheat2.00Millet0.821.60Rice2.20Potato0.501.00Beef15.00Sunflower2.00Fish14.00Rapeseed2.00Vegetable1.34Mutton8.0014.00Compoundfertilizer2.07Pork8.0010.00Carbamide1.45Wool200Carbonammonia0.72Goat240Cornseed4.86Sheep140Hog800

Soilerosion:EPICresult

SoilerosionvaluesderivedfromEPICModelFieldtypeFlatfieldTerraceSlopefieldSlope0%5%10%Maize0.4304.40012.520Millet0.5505.62015.770Sunflower0.5105.22015.090Rapeseed0.4604.67013.090Potato0.2002.0705.880Beans0.4604.67013.090Note:1)unitistonha-1.simulationresultsaremeansoftenyears.2)simulationresultsaremeansoftenyears.AgricultureandlandusesystemCrop-livestocksystem:corn-goat-sheep-hog.Cornmainlyinflatfieldforfeedandcommercialuse;milletinterraceandslopefieldforstaplefood;rapeseed,sunflowerinterraceandslopefieldforcommercialuse;potatoandbeansforself-consumption.Fieldtypeismostimportantfactoraffectingyield.Levelofinputandtechnologicalchoiceofvariouscropscorrespondtofieldtypes.Soilerosionmodulusdifferbetweenfieldtypesandvariouscrops.FarmeconomySmallholders:farmhouseholds(12)andpart-timehouseholds(9).Farmhouseholdsearnincomefromcrop-livestockactivity(livestockincome:70%).Part-timehouseholdsearnmostincomefromoff-farmactivity(73%).Off-farmjobopportunityislimited.Onlymembersofthevillagecangainrightoflandmanagement.Thereisfewmobilityoflandmanagementright.退耕还林还还草政策对对水土保持持影响的比比较静态模模拟模拟结果与与现状的拟拟合比较农产品价格格变动对土土地利用变变化影响的的比较静态态模拟结果果退耕还林还还草政策对对土地利用用变化和水水土保持影影响的比较较静态模拟拟结果退耕还林还还草补贴对对土地利用用变化和水水土保持影影响的比较较静态模拟拟结果非农就业机机会对土地地利用变化化和水土保保持影响的的比较静态态模拟结果果Comparisonbetweenactualsituationandbaserunresults

unitActualsituationin2002Baserun

TotalfamilyincomeYuan139,141194,403CropproductionCornflatmu64.00.0Cornterracemu19.07.4Cornslopemu32.00.0Feedcornflatmun.a66.0Feedcornterracemun.a53.1Feedcornslopemun.a34.9MilletTerracemu22.00.0MilletSlopemu81.146.6Potatoterracemu16.06.8Potatoslopemu26.00.0Sunflowerterracemu11.00.0Sunflowerslopemu25.460.7Rapeseedterracemu30.053.7Rapeseedslopemu16.00.0

Beanmu13.020.7LivestockGoatfamilylaborhead377.0348.4Shedsheephead123.0734.9Hoghead39.00.0

Grazingcattlehead4.04.0ThebaserunHouseholdsmayrealizeasignificantincreaseinincomewithoutincreaseinsoilerosioniftheyputamuchgreatweightonsedentarylivestockbyusingmaizeandstrawsasfodderinsteadofsellingmaizetoearncashincome,andchangetogrowmuchmorecashcropssuchassunflowerandrapeseedsinsteadofmillet.Oneofprobablereasonoffarmersself-sufficientchoiceisfromconstraintofinvestment.Anotherprobablereasonisfromfarmersriskaversion.PricechangeandlanddegradationChangesinpricesoflivestockwillaffectlivestockchoice,buthavenosignificanteffectsonlandusechoiceaswellassoilerosion.Changesinpriceratiosofcommercialcropsaffectlandusechoice,especiallylandusechoiceofslopefields,andthenhavesignificantimpactsonsoilerosion.Theeffectsofpricechangeonsoilerosiondependonratiooferosionmodulusbetweenconcerningcrops.Off-farmjobopportunityandsoilerosionIncreaseinoff-farmjobopportunitiesforseasonalpart-timelaborshavefeweffectsonlanduseactivities.Increaseinoff-farmjobopportunitiesforconstantoff-farmlaborswillinfluencelandusechoiceandthenlanddegradation.Whilethenumberofconstantoff-farmlaborscontinuestoincreaseandexceedsover25persons,cultivationofmilletinslopefieldswilltendtodecrease.Astheresult,soilerosionwilltendtodecreaseduetowithdrawalofcultivationinslopefieldsalongwithanincreaseinoff-farmjobopportunities.LandconversionpolicyandsoilerosionIntroducinglandconversionpolicywillaffectlandusechoiceofslopefieldsaswellasterracefields,andconcomitantlivestockchoice,thenhavesignificanteffectsonreducingsoilerosion.Subsidytowardsconvertedslopefieldswillencourageconversionofslopefieldsandhavesignificanteffectsonlandusechoice,livestockchoiceaswellassoilerosion.SubsidyandsoilerosionWhenintroducinglandconversionpolicywithoutsubsidy,farmincometendstodecreaseasacostforcombatingsoilerosion.Whileallowanceofmorethan160Yuanper6.67awaspaidforfarmers,soilerosionwillberelievedsignificantlywithanincreaseinfarmincome.Thesubsidyforconvertedslopefieldsinloessplateauincludes100kggrainwithapriceof1.4Yuanperkgand20Yuanoffood-forworkaidper6.7a,whichisequalto160Yuanper6.7a.ConclusionandimplicationAnintegratedbio-economichouseholdmodelmaysimulatetheeffectsofchangeinsocio-economicfactorsonlanddegradationbyinvolvingfarmeconomicbehaviorwithinanintegratedframework.Mathematicalprogrammingapproachisusefultodevelopabio-economichouseholdmodelbecauseitcancombinefarmeconomicbehaviorandbiophysicalprocess.Conclusionandimplication-continueThesoilconservationprogramtoconvertslopefieldsintoforestorpastureisaneffectivewayforcombatingsoilerosion.Areasonablesubsidyascompensationthatishigherthanprofitoflanduseactivityofconvertedslopefieldsmayencouragefarmersjointheconservationprogramandadoptofconversionactivity.Conclusionandimplication-continueFarmersmightgobacktocultivateslopefieldsthathavebeenconvertedintopasturewhenthesubsidystopped.Toconsolidatetheachievementofcombatingsoilerosion,howtodevelopalternativesectorsandtoincreasehouseholdincomeafterfarmersconvertedslopefieldsintopasturebecameaninevitableissue.Aconsiderablepolicyistoencourageandassistfarmerstodevelopsedentarylivestockbyusingcropsproducedfromfieldsasfodderandforagegrassfromtheconvertedslopefields.关于退耕还还林政策的的进一步思思考退耕还林政政策的巨大大作用短期内促进进了坡地退退耕，减少少了水土流流失退耕还林政政策的局限限性恢复林草植植被V.S.农地有效利利用与粮食食安全保障障退耕地有效效利用：粮食食安安全全保保障障退耕耕还还林林政政策策补补贴贴结结束束后后的的后后续续产产业业发发展展农民民收收入入保保障障退耕耕还还林林与与生生态态环环境境综综合合治治理理的的政政策策选选择择退耕耕还还林林政政策策与与区区域域可可持持续续发发展展结束束语语：：人人文文社社会会科科学学与与自自然然科科学学相相互互融融合合的的必必要要性性人文文社社会会科科学学与与自自然然科科学学相相互互融融合合的的可可能能性性相关关的的研研究究对对象象———人地地关关系系与与区区域域可可持持续续发发展展人文文社社会会科科学学与与自自然然科科学学相相互互融融合合的的必必要要性性人文文社社会会科科学学家家只只有有应应用用自自然然科科学学研研究究成成果果，，才才能能对对人人地地关关系系自自然然生生态态过过程程及及其其机机制制有有所所认认识识应用人文社社会科学研研究方法，，有助于在在自然科学学研究成果果基础上，，加深对人人地关系动动态过程及及区域可持持续发展策策略的认识识，提出政政策建议Thanks9、静夜四无邻邻，荒居旧业业贫。。12月-2212月-22Wednesday,December21,202210、雨中黄叶树树，灯下白头头人。。01:10:4201:10:4201:1012/21/20221:10:42AM11、以我我独沈沈久，，愧君君相见见频。。。12月月-2201:10:4301:10Dec-2221-Dec-2212、故人人江海海别，，几度度隔山山川。。。01:10:4301:10:4301:10Wednesday,December21,202213、乍乍见见翻翻疑疑梦梦，，相相悲悲各各问问年年。。。。12月月-2212月月-2201:10:4301:10:43December21,202214、他乡乡生白白发，，旧国国见青青山。。。21十十二二月20221:10:43上上午01:10:4312月月-2215、比不了得得就不比，，得不到的的就不要。。。。十二月221:10上上午12月-2201:10December21,202216、行动出出成果，，工作出出财富。。。2022/12/211:10:4301:10:4321December202217、做前，，能够环环视四周周；做时时，你只只能或者者最好沿沿着以脚脚为起点点的射线线向前。。。1:10:43上午午1:10上午午01:10:4312月-229、没有失失败，只只有暂时时停止成成功！。。12月月-2212月月-22Wednesday,December21,202210、很多事事情努力力了未必必有结果果，但是是不努力力却什么么改变也也没有。。。01:10:4301:10:4301:1012/21/20221:10:43AM11、成功就就是日复复一日那那一点点点小小努努力的积积累。。。12月-2201:10:4301:10Dec-2221-Dec-2212、世间成事，，