无线通讯领域之技术进步与产品开发趋势

Technologyandproductdevelopmenttrendsinwirelesscommunications

无线通讯领域的技术进步和产品开发趋势

JahanGhofraniha,Ph.D.Taiyuan,Shanxi,ChinaAug31-Sept3NorthwesternPolytechnicUniversity美国西北理工大学Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop2Outline主要内容Wirelesstechnologyoverview.无线通讯技术的回顾Trendsinwirelesscommunications.无线通讯的发展趋势Maintechnologiesaffectingthesetrends.影响这些发展趋势的主要技术Mainplayersinwirelesssemiconductorsector.无线半导体行业中的主要竞争对手Interactionofnetworkingtechnologyandmobilecommunications.互连网技术和移动通讯技术的相互作用Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop3TechnologyOverview技术回顾1G,2G,2.5G,3Gand4G.ANALOGAMPS,TACS,NTT1980199020002010years1G2G3G4G~2.4kbps~64kbps~2Mbps~1GbpsDIGITALIS-95,IS-136,GSM,PDCIMT-2000BroadbandwirelessNarrowband窄带Wideband宽带BroadbandAug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop4TechnologyOverview技术回顾1Gwasveryslowandmostlycarryoverfromthepast.1G非常慢，都是已发生图象2G,fasterdatarates(upto64kps)buttooslowforretrievingimagesandtext.2G比较快（可达64kps），但是还是太慢，不能回溯图象和文本Thewiderangedemandondataratesledto3Gstandard(highdatarates,2Mbps).对数据传输速率的广泛需求导致了3G标准的诞生（高速传输，2Mbps)4G,globalwirelesssystemgoalistooffercellularandnomadicbroadbandaccesseverywhere.4G全球无线系统的目标是让全世界每个地方都能够连接到离动宽带网上。Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop5WirelessTrendsinUserDomain从用户的角度看无线通讯的发展趋势Increasein2.5Gand3Ghandsets.2.5G和3G话机增加Enhancedmultimedia(Edge,GPRS,Cameraphones).多媒体效果加强（Edge,GPRS，可摄象话机等）FromGartnerReportAug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop6MobileWorldMarket移动通讯世界市场Enhancedphoneswillhavethemainmarketshare.功能强大的话机将占据主要的市场分额20032006Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop73GArchitectureImpact

3G结构的影响3Garchitecturewillchangethesemiconductortrendstowardsasinglechipimplementation.3G结构将使半导体技术朝着单芯片结构发展2Gand2.5GArchitecture2G和2.5G结构MediaBasebandRadioMemoryAug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop83GArchitectureImpact

3G结构的影响In3Gweseeasinglechipimplementation.在3G结构中我们看到的是单芯片结构

3GArchitecture3G结构MediaBasebandRadioMemoryAug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop9MarketDemandsLowCost

市场需求与降低成本Therewillbealotofpressureonhandsetmanufacturerstobringthecostdown.话机制造商将面临巨大的市场压力来降低成本2000Nokia8210 2002skyworksGSM/GPRS ChipsetBaseband:$15.62 -Baseband:$11.00PwrMgnt:$4.00 -PwrMgnt:$4.00Transceiver:$4.16 -Pwramp:$3.00PwrAmp:$2.67 -antenna:$2.00Antenna:$2.00Total: $28.45 -Total: $20.00Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop10RoleofBasebandSection基带的作用Basebandprocessingconstitutesthemaincostofthesystem.基带处理将是整个系统中成本最高的部分Basebandwilldominatethecostwhileitwillbethemainrevenuefactor.基带将继续是成本的主要部分，同时也将是收入的主要部分RFcontributionswilldecrease.RF的贡献将减少Basebandincludes;analoganddigitalBB,memory,powermanagementandmediaprocessor.基带包括：模拟和数字BB，存储器，电源管理和媒体处理器Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop11BasebandProcessing=Growth基带处理=增长Basebandiswhereallthewirelesschipsetmanufacturersarefocusing.基带是所有有无线芯片片制造商都都非常注目目的地带Thistranslatesintonewapproachestobasebandprocessing,newpowermanagementsystemsandinnovativememorysolutions.这也就是说说，基带处处理、电源源管理和存存储方式将将不断地进进行改进Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop12ImportantArchitecturesWirelessapplicationprocessorswillcombinevideoandgraphics.无线处理器器将集图象象和图表功功能与一体体。Whatisthetradeoff?那么为此而而付出什么么代价？Thereare3mainarchitectures:主要有三种种结构：Standaloneapplicationprocessors独立处理器器HighestPerformance.功能最强HighestCost.成本最高Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop13ImportantArchitectures2.Integratedapplicationprocessors集成处理器器LowCost.成本低HighPerformance.性能好3.Basebandapplicationprocessing基带处理LowestCost.成本最低LowestPerformance.性能最差Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop14RFPackagingTrendsRF包装发展趋趋势Enhancedphoneswillbethedrivingforceinthehandsetmarket.强化化话话机机将将占占据据话话机机市市场场的的主主流流RFchipswillalsomovetowardsasinglepackagesolution.RF芯片片也也将将朝朝着着单单包包装装的的方方向向发发展展Examplesare:Skyworks,RFMD,Agilent,Renesas,Motorola.例如如：：Skyworks,RFMD,Agilent,Renesas,MotorolaAug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop15InnovativeRFArchitectures创新新性性RF结构构Newmultiband/multimodehandsetswillneednewRFsolutions.新的的多多带带/多多制制式式话话机机将将需需要要新新的的RF结构构设设计计RFarchitecturesaddressthenewdemandbyusingSiGeandCMOSprocesses.RF结构构将将通通过过使使用用SiGe和CMOS处理理系系统统来来满满足足新新的的需需求求NewreconfigurablearchitectursandWCDMAbasebandprocessorswillcometohelp.另外外，，新新的的可可重重新新刻刻度度结结构构和和WCDMA基带带处处理理器器也也能能够够帮帮助助满满足足新新的的市市场场需需求求BulkAcousticalWaveFilters.大容容量量声声学学滤滤波波器器Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop16KeyPlayersinWirelessChipset无线线芯芯片片领领域域的的饿饿主主要要竞竞争争对对手手IntelTIQualcommMotorolaSTMicroPhilipsInfineonAgereSkyworksRFMDAug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop17KeySemiPASuppliers主要要半半导导体体PA供应应商商RFMDSkyworksRenesasMotorolaPhilipsAnadigicsAug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop18KeySemiTransceiverSuppliers主要要半半导导体体无无线线电电收收发发机机供供应应商商InfineonMotorolaQualcommSTMicroFujitsuNECToshibaAug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop19NetworkingTrends网络络化化发发展展趋趋势势WirelessLANswillconnectdevicestoeachotherandtotheinternet.无线线LAN将把把各各种种设设备备连连接接在在一一起起，，并并且且连连接接到到互互连连网网上上WirelessPANswillconnectdevicestoeachotherandperipherals.无线线PAN将把把各各种种设设备备连连接接在在一一起起，，并并连连接接到到外外围围设设备备上上Allofthesewillbeimpactedbyembeddedradiotechnologies.所有有这这些些都都将将受受到到嵌嵌入入无无线线电电技技术术的的影影响响Wirelesschipsetshipmentgrowthwillsurpasschipsetrevenue.无线线芯芯片片的的货货运运量量增增长长将将快快于于无无线线芯芯片片收收入入的的增增长长Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop20NetworkingTrends网络络化化发发展展趋趋势势Inorderforthenetworkchipsetrevenuetogrow,thetargetmarketshouldshiftfromPC.为了了促促使使网网络络芯芯片片销销售售收收入入的的增增长长，，目目标标市市场场应应该该从从个个人人电电脑脑转转移移到到其其他他领领域域BlueTooth:兰牙牙Thekeyideaisthemobility.主要要理理念念是是灵灵活活性性Wirereplacementandconnectionwithperipherals.有线线替替代代和和与与外外围围设设备备的的连连接接By2006,theestimatedrevenuewillbe2.0B到2006年年，，预预计计销销售售收收入入将将达达到到20亿亿美美圆圆Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop21BlueToothDrawbacks兰牙牙的的缺缺点点Lackofinteroperabilitybetweendifferentmanufacturers.不同同的的制制造造商商生生产产的的产产品品缺缺乏乏相相匹匹配配性性Securitycanbeeasilymodifiedbyadministrators.安全全性性能能很很容容易易被被管管理理者者修修改改Difficultsetup(HCIinterfaceispoor).启动动困困难难（（HCI接口口性性能能很很差差））Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop22KeyPlayersinBlueTooth兰牙牙领领域域的的主主要要竞竞争争对对手手CambridgeSiliconRadioPhilipsTISiliconWaveBroadcomInfineonMotorolaAug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop23NetworkingandWirelessCom网络络化化和和无无线线通通讯讯Allinonesolutionwillbethewaveofthefuture.一体体性性解解决决方方案案将将是是未未来来发发展展的的主主流流WCDMA,GSM/GPRS/EDGEhandsetswithbluetoothconnectivity.WCDMA,GSM/GPRS/EDGE话机机，，带带兰兰牙牙连连接接WLANandBTPDA’sandnotebooks.WLAN和BTPDA和笔笔记记本本SmartPhonescombinedwithPDA’s,BTandcellularandWLANcapabilities.带PDA，，BT和蜂蜂窝窝与与WLAN匹配配功功能能的的智智能能话话机机Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop24NetworkingandWirelessCom网络络化化和和无无线线通通讯讯Thewinnerinthefuturemarketisthecosteffectivesolutionthatwillbringallthesefunctionalityinonedevice.未来来市市场场的的胜胜利利者者将将是是能能够够将将所所有有这这些些功功能能集集于于一一体体，，而而且且成成本本效效益益比比最最佳佳的的生生产产商商从美美国国的的角角度度看看技技术术发发展展趋趋势势和和东东亚亚的的作作用用TechnologyTrendsandtheRoleofEastAsiaAnAmericanPerspectiveJahanGhofraniha,Ph.D.NPUChinaMobileWorkshopTiayuan,ShanxiAugust31-Sep3Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop26趋势势TrendsDigitaltechnologyhashadagreatimpactinourlivesandcontinuestoplayasignificantrole.数字字技技术术对对我我们们的的生生活活有有着着非非常常重重要要的的影影响响，，并并将将继继续续发发挥挥其其重重要要作作用用Intheglobalcontext,Technologyisconvergingandbecomingmoreuniform.在全全球球一一体体化化背背景景下下，，出出现现技技术术收收敛敛效效应应，，技技术术标标准准越越来来越越统统一一。。DigitalContentwillbethewavethatwillhitusnext.数字字化化的的内内容容将将是是影影响响我我们们生生活活的的下下一一个个冲冲击击波波Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop27Trends趋势势Bigcompaniesinsiliconvalleyarefocusingondigitalentertainmentastheirnextbigthing.硅谷的大公公司正在将将数字化娱娱乐作为下下一个开发发的重点ThebuzzisiPodratherthansimplePDAandnetworkentertainmentratherthannetworkedcomputers.要的是iPod，，而不是简单单的PDA；是网络娱乐乐，而不是是简单的网网络联机Intelisinvesting$200m,indigitalhomes.英特尔投资资2亿美圆圆构建其数数字家园Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop28Requirements要求HighFidelityincontentcreation:Morevisuallyexcitingcontents(movies,games,etc)byconvergingimage/signalprocessing,graphics,audio,etc.编辑内容的的高保真性性：通过将将影象/信信号处理，，图象，声声音等信号号的敛聚，，创造更加加具有视觉觉震撼性的的内容（电电影，游戏戏等）Highfidelityincompression:advancedcompressiontechniquesdeliverbetterqualitycontentwithsmallamountofinformation.压缩的高保真真性：能够用用更小的信息息量传递更加加高质量的内内容的先进压压缩技术Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop29Requirements要求Morecontentstoragespaceeverywhere:storagespaceisgettinglargerandmoreportable(inPC’s,digitalcameras,etc)andthepriceisgettinglower.越来越大的存存储量：存储储空间越来越越大，越来越越方便移动（（如个人电脑脑，数码相机机等），价格格越来越低Morecontentsanytimeandanywhere:combinationofwirelesshomenetworkingandbroadband,devicesareconnectedeverywhereanddifferentdevicescommunicatemoreseamlessly.随时随地，内内容丰富：无无线网络和宽宽带结合在一一起，设备互互联，设备间间的交流更加加通畅Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop30Requirements要求Moreinteractiveenvironment:interactiveTV,educationandlearning,games…更能够互动的的环境：互动动电视，教育育和学习，游游戏等等Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop31Challenges挑战Cybersecurity:Alldevicesareconnectedtointernetbutsecurityisthedrawbackofthisconnectivity(spam,virus,fraud,spyware,…)网络安全：所所有的设备都都连接到互连连网上，但是是安全成为这这种连接的致致命问题（垃垃圾邮件，病病毒，欺诈，，间谍文件等等）Piracy:intellectualpropertyforthecontentprovidersononehandandfilesharingontheotherhandhasbroughtaboutnewefforttomakepiracydifficultandunachievable.个人隐私：内内容提供者的的知识产权保保护与文件在在公众间的共共享之矛盾为为保护个人隐隐私提供了新新的课题，使使得保护个人人隐私非常困困难Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop32Challenges挑战RoyaltyandStandards:drivethecostofsimilarproducthighandmaynotbeacceptedbytheindustry.忠诚与标准：：使得同类产产品的成本增增加，可能导导致业界难以以接受DigitalEquality:widensthegapbetweentheinternetsavvygenerationandpeoplelivinginruralareasandlesseducated.数字世界的人人人平等：使使得互连网冲冲浪者和居住住在农村、受受教育程度较较低人群之间间的鸿沟越来来越大Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop33Opportunities机遇Innovativeproductsinnewdigitalhome.Easeofuseandportabilityarethekeyissues.新数码世界中中的创新性产产品。使用舒舒适与便携性性是重点Softwarethatmanagescontents.Aneasy-to-usesoftwarethatmanages1000ofimagesofadigitalcamera.内容管理软件件。使用方便便，可以管理理1000个个数码相机图图象的软件Homenetworkingfacilitator.Asystemthatcanhandlemanydevicestoexchangeand互连器，可以以控制多个设设备进行数据据交换的系统统Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop34Opportunities机遇Andshareinformation.Thegrowthestimateinthismarketisabout$5.3bin2007.信息共享。预预计到2007年市场增增长将达到53亿美圆Howwouldthesetrendsplayoutintheglobalcontext,especiallyinEastAsiawhereweseethehighestgrowthrateinthepastfewyears?在全球化进程程中，这种趋趋势将发挥什什么样的作用用？尤其是在在东亚地区，，过去几年这这里的增长速速度是全世界界最快的Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop35DevelopmentinEastAsia东亚的发展TheeffectofgrowthofEastAsiaisfeltallovertheworld.全世界都能感感受到东亚快快速增长所带带来的后果ThemainissueisiftheEuropeanandNorthAmericancountriescancompetewiththeEastAsiancountriesiftheywanttomaintainthewelfaresystemandgovernmentsponsoredindustries?主要问题是：：如果欧洲国国家和美洲国国家依然保留留其福利制度度和政府扶持持企业的政策策，这些国家家能否和东亚亚地区的国家家相竞争？Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop36KeyPlayers主要参与者Taiwan:台湾Moststrikingdevelopmentinthelast40years.过去40年间间取得的惊人人成就Mostsuccesfulindustrieshavebeen:semiconductorcompanies(TSMCinHsinChuandUMCinTaipei)thatcontrols¾ofthe$20bglobalcontractchipmarket.最成功的行业业包括：半导导体业（新竹竹的TSMC和台北的UMC），控制了全全球芯片市场场总容量200亿美圆中中的四分之三三Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop37KeyPlayers主要参与者Worldlargestnotebookmanufacturer.世界最大的笔笔记本制造基基地2ndLCDmanufacturer.世界第二大LCD制造基地Whathasfueledthisgrowth?什么原因促使使了这种发展展？Thestrongcultureofentrepreneurship.传统的敬业精精神LackofgovernmentfundedR&D.Survivalofthefitteststrategy.没有政府出资资的R&D，最好的策略胜胜出Ironically,therelationshipwithChinahasbeenhelpful.颇具讽刺意味味的是，与中中国大陆的关关系也对这种种发展提供了了帮助Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop38KeyPlayers主要参与者Biginvestmentsinchinahastiedtheeconomyofthetwocountriestogether.在中国的巨大大投资将这两两个国家绑在在了同一条战战船上SouthKorea:韩国Ithasachievedthesamelevelofdevelopmentin50yearsaswhatSpainachievedin200years.用50年的时时间取得了西西班牙用200年的时间间所取得的发发展成就Majormakerofmemorytechnology.存储技术的主主要设计者Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop39KeyPlayers主要参与者Cellphones,flatpaneldisplaysandcars.蜂窝电话，平平板显示器和和汽车StrategyhasbeentotargetUSmarketratherthanChinabyadoptingUScellphonestandards.策略是瞄准美美国市场，而而不是中国市市场，采用美美国蜂窝电话话标准Similarcopy-catstrategytoJapanbuteasingthisapproachandopeningthemarket(chaebol).同日本策略相相似，但是更更加谨慎，同同时开放市场场Aug31-Sept32006ChinaMobileWorkshop40KeyPlayer(USperspective)主要参与者（（从美国的角角度看）WouldliketobethesteppingstoneorahubforWesterncompaniesintoChina(CrystalValley,enclaveofdigitalm