战略管理外部环境O

ChapterTwoExternalAnalysis:

TheIdentificationofOpportunitiesandThreats“Toassurevictory,always

carefullysurveythefield

beforebattle.”

-SunTzu©RoyaltyFree/Stockdisc/GettyImages2ExternalAnalysisrequiresanassessmentof:IndustryenvironmentinwhichcompanyoperatesCompetitivestructureofindustryCompetitivepositionofthecompanyCompetitivenessandpositionofmajorrivalsThecountryornationalenvironmentsinwhichcompanycompetesThewidersocioeconomicormacroenvironmentthatmayaffectthecompanyanditsindustrySocialGovernmentLegalInternationalTechnologicalExternalAnalysisThepurposeofexternalanalysisistoidentifythestrategicopportunitiesandthreatsintheorganization’soperatingenvironmentthatwillaffecthowitpursuesitsmission.3ExternalAnalysis:OpportunitiesandThreatsAnalyzingthedynamicsoftheindustryinwhichanorganizationcompetestohelpidentify:Opportunities

ConditionsintheenvironmentthatacompanycantakeadvantageoftobecomemoreprofitableThreats

Conditionsintheenvironmentthatendangertheintegrityandprofitabilityofthecompany’sbusiness4IndustryAnalysis:DefininganIndustry

IndustryAgroupofcompaniesofferingproductsorservicesthatareclosesubstitutesforeachotherandthatsatisfythesamebasiccustomerneedsIndustryboundariesmaychangeascustomerneedsevolveandtechnologychanges

SectorAgroupofcloselyrelatedindustries

MarketSegmentsDistinctgroupsofcustomerswithinanindustryCanbedifferentiatedfromeachotherwithdistinctattributesandspecificdemandsIndustryanalysisbeginsbyfocusingontheoverallindustry–beforeconsideringmarketsegmentorsector-levelissues5TheComputerSector:IndustriesandMarketSegmentsFigure2.16Porter’sFiveForcesModelSource:AdaptedandreprintedbypermissionofHarvardBusinessReview.From“HowCompetitiveForcesShapeStrategy,”byMichaelE.Porter,HarvardBusinessReview,March/April1979©bythePresidentandFellowsofHarvardCollege.Allrightsreserved.Figure2.27HowtheFiveForcesShapeCompetitionwithinanIndustryThestrongerthateachofthesefiveforcesis,themorelimitedistheabilityofestablishedcompaniestoraisepricesandearngreaterprofitswithintheirindustry.AweakcompetitiveforcemaybeviewedasanopportunityasitallowscompanytoearngreaterprofitsAstrongcompetitiveforcemaybeviewedasathreatasitdepressesindustryprofitsStrengthofforcesmaychangeAsindustryconditionschangeThroughitschoiceofstrategies,acompanymayalterthestrengthofoneormoreofthefiveforcestoitsadvantage.

8PotentialCompetitorsarecompaniesthatarenotcurrentlycompetinginanindustrybuthavethecapabilitytodosoiftheychoose.Barrierstonewentrantsinclude:

RiskofEntrybyPotentialCompetitorsEconomiesofScale–asfirmsexpandoutputunitcostsfallvia:Costreductions–throughmassproductionDiscountsonbulkpurchases–ofrawmaterialandstandardpartsCostadvantages–ofspreadingfixedandmarketingcostsoverlargevolumeBrandLoyaltyAchievedbycreatingwell-establishedcustomerpreferencesDifficultfornewentrantstotakemarketsharefromestablishedbrandsAbsoluteCostAdvantages–relativetonewentrantsAccumulatedexperience–inproductionandkeybusinessprocessesControlofparticularinputsrequiredforproductionLowerfinancialrisks–accesstocheaperfundsCustomerSwitchingCostsforBuyers–wheresignificantGovernmentRegulationMaybeabarriertoentercertainindustries9IndustryCompetitiveStructureNumberandsizedistributionofcompaniesConsolidatedversusfragmentedindustriesDemandConditionsGrowingdemand–tendstomoderatecompetitionandreducerivalryDecliningdemand–encouragesrivalryformarketshareandrevenueCostConditionsHighfixedcosts–profitabilityleveragedbysalesvolumeSlowdemandandgrowth–canresultinintenserivalryandlowerprofitsHeightofExitBarriers–

preventscompaniesfromleavingindustryWrite-offofinvestmentinassetsEconomicdependenceonindustryMaintainassets-toparticipateeffectivelyinanindustry

RivalryAmongEstablishedCompaniesCompetitiveRivalryreferstothecompetitivestrugglebetweencompaniesinthesameindustrytogainmarketsharefromeachother.Intensityofrivalryisafunctionof:Highfixedcostsofexit

Emotionalattachmenttoindustry

Bankruptcyregulations–allowingunprofitableassetstoremain10IndustryBuyersmaybetheconsumersorend-userswhoultimatelyusetheproductorintermediariesthatdistributeorretailtheproducts.Thesebuyersaremostpowerfulwhen:BargainingPowerofBuyersBuyersaredominant.Buyersarelargeandfewinnumber.Theindustrysupplyingtheproductiscomposedofmanysmallcompanies.Buyerspurchaseinlargequantities.Buyershavepurchasingpowerasleverageforpricereductions.Theindustryisdependantonthebuyers.Buyerspurchasealargepercentageofacompany’’stotalorders.Switchingcostsforbuyersarelow.Buyerscanplayoffthesupplyingcompaniesagainsteachother.Buyerscanpurchasefromseveralsupplyingcompaniesatonce.Buyerscanthreatentoentertheindustrythemselves.Buyersproducethemselvesandsupplytheirownproduct.Buyerscanusethreatofentryasatactictodrivepricesdown.11Suppliersareorganizationsthatprovideinputssuchasmaterialandlaborintotheindustry.Thesesuppliersaremostpowerfulwhen:BargainingPowerofSuppliersTheproductsuppliedisvitaltotheindustryandhasfewsubstitutes.Theindustryisnotanimportantcustomertosuppliers.Suppliersarenotsignificantlyaffectedbytheindustry.Switchingcostsforcompaniesintheindustryaresignificant.Companiesintheindustrycannotplaysuppliersagainsteachother.Supplierscanthreatentoentertheircustomers’’industry.Supplierscanusetheirinputstoproduceandcompetewithcompaniesalreadyintheindustry.Companiesintheindustrycannotthreatentoentersuppliers’’industry.12SubstituteProductsaretheproductsfromdifferentbusinessesorindustriesthatcansatisfysimilarcustomerneeds.SubstituteProductsTheexistenceofclosesubstitutesisastrongcompetitivethreat.Substituteslimitthepricethatcompaniescanchargefortheirproduct.Substitutesareaweakcompetitiveforceifanindustry’sproductshavefewclosesubstitutes.Otherthingsbeingequal,companiesintheindustryhavetheopportunitytoraisepricesandearnadditionalprofits.13StrategicGroupsWithinIndustriesStrategicGroupsaregroupsofcompaniesthatfollowabusinessmodelsimilartoothercompanieswithintheirstrategicgroup–butaredifferentfromthatofothercompaniesinotherstrategicgroups.ImplicationsofStrategicGroups––TheclosestcompetitorsarewithinthesameStrategicGroupandmaybeviewedbycustomersassubstitutesforeachother.EachStrategicGroupcanhavedifferentcompetitiveforcesandmayfaceadifferentsetofopportunitiesandthreats.MobilityBarriers–factorswithinanindustrythatinhibitthemovementofcompaniesbetweenstrategicgroupsIncludebarrierstoenteranothergrouporexitexistinggroupThebasicdifferencesbetweenbusinessmodelsindifferentstrategicgroupscanbecapturedbyarelativelysmallnumberofstrategicfactors.14StrategicGroupsinthePharmaceuticalIndustryFigure2.315StrategicGroupsinthePharmaceuticalIndustryHighRisk–HighReturnFocusondevelopingnewproprietarydrugsHeavyR&DspendingLowRisk––LowReturnFocusonlow-costcopiesofdrugswithexpiredpatentsProductionefficiency16StrategicBarriersinthePharmaceuticalIndustryStrategicBarrierLackofR&DSkillstodevelopnewproprietarydrugs17IndustryLifeCycleModelanalyzestheaffectsofindustryevolutiononcompetitiveforcesovertimeandischaracterizedbyfivedistinctlifecyclestages:IndustryLifeCycleAnalysisEmbryonic–industryjustbeginningtodevelopRivalrybasedonperfectingproducts,educatingcustomers,andopeningupdistributionchannels.Growth–first-timedemandtakes-offwithnewcustomersLowrivalryasfocusisonkeepingupwithhighindustrygrowth.Shakeout––demandapproachessaturation,replacementsRivalryintensifieswithemergenceofexcessproductivecapacity.Mature–markettotallysaturatedwithlowtonogrowthIndustryconsolidationbasedonmarketshare,drivingdownprice.Decline––industrygrowthbecomesnegativeRivalryfurtherintensifiesbasedonrateofdeclineandexitbarriers.18StagesintheIndustryLifeCycleStrengthandnatureoffiveforceschangeasindustryevolvesFigure2.419GrowthinDemandandCapacityIndustryShakeout:RivalryIntensifieswithgrowthinexcesscapacityAnticipatehowforceswillchangeandformulateappropriatestrategyFigure2.520LimitationsofModelsforIndustryAnalysisLifeCycleIssuesIndustrycyclesdonotalwaysfollowthelifecyclegeneralization.Inrapidgrowthsituationsembryonicstageissometimesskipped.Industrygrowthrevitalizedthroughinnovationorsocialchange.Thetimespanofthestagescanvaryfromindustrytoindustry.InnovationandChangePunctuatedEquilibriumoccurswhenanindustry’’slongtermstablestructureispunctuatedwithperiodsofrapidchangebyinnovation.Hypercompetitiveindustriesarecharacterizedbypermanentandongoinginnovationandcompetitivechange.CompanyDifferencesTherecanbesignificantvariancesintheprofitratesofindividualcompanieswithinanindustry.Inadditiontoindustryattractiveness,companyresourcesandcapabilitiesarealsoimportantdeterminantsofitsprofitability.Modelsprovideusefulwaysofthinkingaboutcompetitionwithinanindustry––butbeawareoftheirlimitations.21PunctuatedEquilibriumandCompetitiveStructurePeriodsoflongtermstabilityPeriodsoflongtermstabilityIndustryStructurerevolutionizedbyinnovationFigure2.622TheRoleoftheMacroenvironmentChangesintheforcesinthemacro-environmentcandirectlyimpact:TheFiveForcesRelativeStrengthsIndustryAttractivenessFigure2.723“Strategyisachoiceonhowtocompete.””-MichaelPorter©RoyaltyFree/Stockdisc/GettyImages24S-C-PModelBain&Mason,1960’’s25Porter’’sFiveForcesofCompetitionFrameworkSUPPLIERSPOTENTIALENTRANTSSUBSTITUTESBUYERSINDUSTRYCOMPETITORSRivalryamongexistingfirmsBargainingpowerofsuppliersBargainingpowerofbuyersThreatofnewentrantsThreatofsubstitutes26ApplyingFive-ForcesAnalysisForecastingIndustryProfitabilityPastprofitabilityapoorindicatoroffutureprofitability.Ifwecanforecastchangesinindustrystructurewecanpredictlikelyimpactoncompetitionandprofitability.StrategiestoImproveIndustryProfitabilityWhatstructuralvariablesaredepressingprofitabilityWhichcanbechangedbyindividualorcollectivestrategies?27AnyProblemswiththeFiveForceAnalysisModel?28LimitationsofFive-ForceAnalysisIndustry-levelfactorsvsFirm-levelfactorsSupply-sidevsdemandsideQualitativevsQuantitativeCooperativevscompetitiveStaticvsdynamicHomogeneousfirmsvsheterogeneousfirmsRoleofgovernment29TheValueNetCOMPANYCUSTOMERSSUPPLIERSCOMPLEMENTORSCOMPETITORS30DynamicCompetitionPorterframeworkassumesindustrystructuredrivescompetitivebehaviorIndustrystructureisstable.But---competitionalsochangesindustrystructureSchumpeterianCompetition:creativedestruction(創造性的破壞壞):innovationoverthrowsestablishedmarketleadersChristensen’sdisruptiveinnovation(破壞性的創新新)Hypercompetition:“intenseandrapidcompetitivemoves….cre