2022年全球粮食展望报告

ISSN0251-1959Food OutlookISSN0251-1959BIANNUALREPORTONGLOBALFOODMARKETS

20222021115November2022Food OutlookBIANNUALREPORTONGLOBALFOODMARKETSFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsRome,2022Requiredcitation:FAO.2022.FoodOutlook–BiannualReportonGlobalFoodMarkets.FoodOutlook,November2022.Rome./10.4060/cc2864enThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthisinformationproductdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)concerningthelegalordevelopmentstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.Thementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturers,whetherornotthesehavebeenpatented,doesnotimplythatthesehavebeenendorsedorrecommendedbyFAOinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Theviewsexpressedinthisinformationproductarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofFAO.ISSN0251-1959[print]ISSN1560-8182[online]ISBN978-92-5-137171-8©FAO,2022Somerightsreserved.ThisworkismadeavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike3.0IGOlicence(CCSA3.0IGO;/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode).Underthetermsofthislicence,thisworkmaybecopied,redistributedandadaptedfornon-commercialpurposes,providedthattheworkisappropriatelycited.Inanyuseofthiswork,thereshouldbenosuggestionthatendorsesanyspecificorganization,productsorservices.Theuseofthelogoisnotpermitted.Iftheworkisadapted,thenitmustbelicensedunderthesameorequivalentCreativeCommonslicence.Ifatranslationofthisworkiscreated,itmustincludethefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththerequiredcitation:“ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbytheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO).isnotresponsibleforthecontentoraccuracyofthistranslation.Theoriginal[Language]editionshallbetheauthoritativeedition.”DisputesarisingunderthelicencethatcannotbesettledamicablywillberesolvedbymediationandarbitrationasdescribedinArticle8ofthelicenceexceptasotherwiseprovidedherein.TheapplicablemediationruleswillbethemediationrulesoftheWorldIntellectualPropertyOrganizationhttp://www./amc/en/mediation/rulesandanyarbitrationwillbeconductedinaccordancewiththeArbitrationRulesoftheUnitedNationsCommissiononInternationalLaw(UNCITRAL).Third-partymaterials.Userswishingtoreusematerialfromthisworkthatisattributedtoathirdparty,suchastables,figuresorimages,areresponsiblefordeterminingwhetherpermissionisneededforthatreuseandforobtainingpermissionfromthecopyrightholder.Theriskofclaimsresultingfrominfringementofanythird-party-ownedcomponentintheworkrestssolelywiththeuser.Sales,rmationproductsareavailableonthewebsite(/publications)andcanbepurchasedpublications-sales@.Requestsforcommercialuseshouldbesubmittedvia:/contact-us/licence-request.Queriesregardingrightsandlicensingshouldbesubmittedto:copyright@.Photocredits(lefttoright/toptobottom):©AllFreeDownload;©Shutterstock;©Shutterstock;©AllFreeDownload;©PEXELS;©PEXELS;©iStock;©AllFreeDownload;©FAO;©iStock;©Freepik;©iStock;©iStock;©iStock;©PEXELS;©ShutterstockHIGHLIGHTSCOARSEGRAINSWHEATF nCOARSEGRAINSWHEATAO’slatestforecastspointtosomewhateasingofmarketconditionsforbasicfoodstuffs.However,increasedclimatevariability,conflictsandgeopoliticaltensions,bleakeconomicprospects,soaringagriculturalinputcostsandexportcontinuetoposechallengestoglobalfoodcommoditymarket

aa

Aforecastfallinproductionistighteningtheglobalcoarsegraimarketsin2022/23,drivinganexpectedcontractioninglobalutilizationstocks.Worldtradeincoarsegrainsispredictedtodeclineslightly,mostlyreflectingexpectationsofweakerdemandandtighterexportsupplies. Althoughinclementweatherandhikesininputcostsareforecastlowerglobalproductionandexportableavailabilities,astilladequateglobalharvestandlargeinsareanticipatedtokeepricesuppliesabundantin2022/23.

a

Ananticipatedincreaseinworldproduction,amidalikelyslowriseutilization,issettopushtheglobalsurplusto4.9milliontonnesin2022/23.Globaltradeinsugarispredictedexpandmoderately,largelyspurredlargerexportavailabilitiescomparedthepreviousseason.OILCROPSFAO’spreliminaryforecastsforthe2022/23(October/September)seasonpointtoasomewhateasingmarketsituationforoilseedsandderivedproductsfromthepreviousseason,mainlyonaccountofexpectationsofproductionrecoveries.However,theoutlookremainsrelativelytightandissubjecttonumerousuncertainties.

FISHERIESfisheriesandisexpectedtogloballyby1.2in2022(+2.6and-0.2forfisheries).Continuedsupplylimitationsandhighinflationcouldcausepricestobutaslowingglobaleconomywilllikelyprice MARKETGlobalfoodimportbill Globalagriculutralinputimportbill OceanFreightMarketdevelopmentsGlobalfoodimportbillGlobalagriculutralinputimportbillOceanFreightMarketdevelopmentsAtUSD1.94trillion,theglobalimportbill(FIB)isforecasttoanotherrecordin2022.Theincreasewilllikelybelessthaninthepreviousowingtofallingpurchasingpowerofimportersatimewhenfoodpricesareatall-timehighs.Worryingly,manyvulnerablecountriesarepayingwhilereceivinglessfood.

Theglobalagriculturalinputimport(IIB)isforecasttoreachanall-timeofUSD424billionin2022,anear50-percentincreasefromandreachingmorethantwicelevelregisteredin2020.Thisincreaseisalmostentirelyonaccountsoaringcostsofinputs,whilegrowthimportedvolumesremainssubdued.

Despitegenerallybuoyanttradeinandoilseeds,aswellaschallenginglogisticsinsomeratesforthetransportationofdrybulkcommoditiestookasignificantstepdownoverthepastsixmonths,astensions,exportandfearsweighedonsentimentandcurbedcharteringMARKETSAGLANCE

1−9JFMAMJJASOND85201910020202014-2016=100160JFMAMJJASOND85201910020202014-2016=10016020221451302021115FAOFoodPriceIndexp81Coarsegrains 2Rice 3Oilcrops,oilsandmeals 4Sugar 5Meatandmeatproducts 6Milkandmilkproducts 7Fishandfisheryproducts 8MAJORPOLICYDEVELOPMENTS

10−33Grains 11Rice 22Meat 29Dairy 32STATISTICALTABLESMARKETINDICATORS

34-7172−85Oceanfreightrates 73Foodimportbill 76Agriculturalinputimportbill 79Thepriceindices 81FoodOutlookispublishedtwiceayear,normallyinJuneandNovember.TheJunereportcontainsamoredetailedmarketanalysiswhiletheNovemberreportonlyprovidessummarymarketassessments(Marketsataglance).FoodOutlookispublishedtwiceayear,normallyinJuneandNovember.TheJunereportcontainsamoredetailedmarketanalysiswhiletheNovemberreportonlyprovidessummarymarketassessments(Marketsataglance).ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSTheFoodOutlookreportisaproductoftheMarketsandDivisionoftheEconomicandSocialDevelopmentstream.ThisreportwaspreparedundertheoverallguidanceofBoubakerBen-Belhassen,DirectorandUpaliGalketiAratchilage,SeniorEconomist.Marketsummarieswerewrittenbyateamofeconomists,whosenamesappearundertheirrespectivecontributions.AcontributionbytheInternationalGrainsCouncilonoceanfreightratesforthemarketindicatorssectionisalsogratefullyacknowledged.Thereportbenefitedfromresearchsupportfrommanystaff,namely,DavidBedford,HaroutDekermendjian,GraceMariaKarumathy,LaviniaLucarelli,EmanueleMarocco,EmanueleMazzini,MarcoMilo,FabioPalmeri,andtheFisheriesandAquacultureStatisticsandGLOBEFISH.SpecialthanksgotoDavidBedfordandLaviniaLucarelliforpreparingthechartsandstatisticaltablesandtoValentinaBantiforheradministrativesupport.Additionally,theteamisgratefultoEttoreVecchioneforthedesktoppublishingandRosemaryD.Allisonforhervaluableeditorialassistance.glanceaatMarketsix FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBERglanceaatMarketsix FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBERMarketsataglanceMarketsataglanceforworldwheatin2022/23ata784milliontonnes,up0.6lastseason.SignificantharvestinCanadaandRussianFederationexpectedtomakeupthebulkofanddeclinesinseveralcountries,includingArgentina,Australia,Union,India,and,Ukraine.At775milliontonnes,totalwheatutilizationisseenexpandingmarginallyin2022/23,by0.32021/22,mostlydrivenbyhigherfoodconsumptionofwheat,whichistocontinuerisinginlinewithpopulationaswellasaindustrialuse.Bycontrast,highwheatpricestofeedgrains,maizeinwilllikelyfeeduseofwheatin2022/23,largelyinChinaand,toalesserextent,theUnitedStatesAmerica,suppliesBasedonthelatestglobalandutilizationglobalwheatinventoriesexpectedtoriseaboveopeninglevelsby2.0in2022/23to300milliontonnes,thehighestlevelonmostofaccumulationofwheatstocksisexpectedtooccurinChinaandtheRussianFederation.Excludingthesecountries,wheatinventoriesintheoftheworldtofallbythan8belowtheiropeninglevels,ledbydrawdownsexpectedinIndia,theUnionandtheUnitedStatesofAmerica,aswellasseveralcountriesinAfricaandAsia.wheattradein2022/23(July/June)istocontractby1.0the2021/22level,downto194milliontonnes,mostlyexportdisruptionsandexpectationsoflowerimportdemandinsomecountriesduetobiggerdomesticharvests.DespiteshipmentsduetotheBlackSeaGrainInitiative,wheatexportsUkrainein2022/23tobewellbelowaverageandlastlevelbecauseofapaceofexportsandongoinglogisticalchallenges.todomesticsuppliesexpectedtowheatsalesIndia,whilewilllikelycurbexports.Ontheimportside,anticipatedsmallerbyChina,theIslamicofIranandKazakhstan,onaccountofbiggernationalharvests,seentobewheatimportdemand.Foradditionalanalysesandupdates,see:FAOCerealSupplyandDemandBrief/worldfoodsituationCropProspectsandFoodSituation/giews/reports/crop-prospectsAMISMarketMonitor/amis-monitoringContact:ErinCollierJonathanPound(Production)

PRODUCTION,UTILIZATIONSTOCKSmilliontonnes800milliontonnes800million30075025075025070020070020065015065015012/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21 22/23f’cast12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21 22/23f’castProduction(leftaxis) Utilization(leftaxis)Stocks(rightaxis)Source:FAO100600WORLDWHEATMARKETATAGLANCE6002020/212021/222022/23Changeestim.f'cast2022/23over2021/22milliontonnes%WORLDBALANCEProduction775.0779.3783.80.6Trade189.4195.7193.7-1.0Totalutilization761.8773.0775.00.3Food525.5529.5535.31.1Feed147.9151.7146.8-3.2Otheruses88.591.892.91.3Endingstocks291.5293.7299.62.0SUPPLYANDDEMANDINDICATORSPercaputfoodconsumption:World(kg/yr)67.067.067.10.3LIFDC(kg/yr)58.257.957.6-0.537.737.938.0ratio(%)Majorexporters15.216.017.5stocks-to-disap-pearanceratio(%)FAOWHEATPRICE202020212022%ChangeINDEX(2014−2016=100)Jan−Oct.Jan/Oct2022overJan/Oct202110113216723.9TradereferstoexportsbasedonacommonJuly/Junemarketingseason.Maynotequalthedifferencebetweensupply(definedasproductionpluscarryoverstocks)andtotalutilizationduetodifferencesinindividualcountrymarketingyears.MajorexportersincludeArgentina,Australia,Canada,theEuropeanUnion,Kazakhstan,theRussianFederation,UkraineandtheßUnitedStatesofAmerica.DerivedfromtheInternationalGrainsCouncil(IGC)wheatindex.Source:FAO1FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20221COARSEGRAINSCOARSEGRAINSCOARSEGRAINCOARSEGRAINPRODUCTION,ANDSTOCKSWORLDCOARSEGRAINMARKETGLANCESource:FAOUtilization(leftaxis)Production(leftaxis)Stocks(rightaxis)22/23f’cast12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21100500175750250100032512501500 400milliontonnesmilliontonnesMarketsataglance2.8into1467Theaninledbyintheandtheofistotoaintheisofofistoby1.2thefirstinaisinuseofbyofainuseintheandtheduetoasasuseofuseofistoininandtheWithtoto5.3intoTheoftheistointheandtheItisaofintheisWorldtradeincoarsegrainsisforecasttodeclineby3.4intoinandofthebyofbyandbyOnthebytheasasandtoinintheistointoainthetoaandtheoftheSeabyandaninthetoforForadditionalanalysesandupdates,see:FAOCerealSupplyandDemandBrief/worldfoodsituationCropProspectsandFoodSituation/giews/reports/crop-prospectsAMISMarketMonitor/amis-monitoring

2020/212021/222022/23Changeestim.f'cast2021/22over2020/21milliontonnes%WORLDBALANCEProduction1483.61509.91467.2-2.8Trade238.9230.0222.3-3.4Totalutilization1486.51503.11485.0-1.2Food221.0223.0224.70.8Feed872.8878.2864.3-1.6Otheruses392.7401.9396.0-1.5Endingstocks350.8366.7347.5-5.3SUPPLYANDDEMANDINDICATORSPercaputfoodconsumption:World(kg/yr)28.228.528.2-1.2LIFDC(kg/yr)-2.923.324.722.4ratio(%)Majorexporters11.813.512.8stocks-to-disap-pearanceratio(%)FAOCOARSE202020212022%ChangeGRAINPRICEJan−Oct.Jan/Oct2022INDEX(2014−2016=100)overJan/Oct202110214517115.6TradereferstoexportsbasedonacommonJuly/Junemarketingseason.Contact:ErinCollierJonathanPound(Production)Contact:ErinCollierJonathanPound(Production)marketingyears.MajorexportersincludeArgentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,theEuropeanUnion,theRussianFederation,UkraineandtheUnitedStatesofAmerica.2Source:FAO23FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20223FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER2022FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20224FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20224MarketsataglanceMarketsataglancea518.3milliontonnes.WORLDRICEMARKETATAGLANCEWORLDRICEMARKETATAGLANCEaaForadditionalanalysesandupdates,see:FAORicePriceUpdate/markets-and-trade/commodities/rice/fao-rice-price-update/CerealSupplyandDemandBrief/worldfoodsituation/csdb/AMISMarketMonitorContact:ShirleyMustafa/amis-monitoringContact:ShirleyMustafa

RICEPRODUCTION,UTILIZATIONANDSTOCKSRICEPRODUCTION,UTILIZATIONANDSTOCKSSource:FAOUtilization(leftaxis)Production(leftaxis)Stocks(rightaxis)1002021/222022/23f’cast2013/14 2015/16 2017/18 2019/20425125450150475175500525 200milliontonnes,milledliontonnes,milledeq.2020/212021/222022/23Changeestim.f'cast2022/23over2021/22milliontonnes%WORLDBALANCEProduction 518.1525.1512.6-2.451.653.852.9-1.6utilization 510.3522.0518.3-0.7Food 417.5422.2426.51.0Endingstocks193.6196.9193.4-1.8ANDDEMANDINDICATORSPercaputfoodconsumption:World(kg/yr) 53.253.453.50.2LIFDC(kg/yr) 51.651.738.037.0ratio(%)28.529.729.6stocks-to-disappear-anceratio(%)202020212022%ChangeINDEXJan−Oct.Jan/Oct(2014−2016=100)2022overJan/Oct20211101061070.1Calendaryearexports(secondyearshown).Maynotequalthedifferencebetweensupply(definedasproductionpluscarryoverstocks)andutilizationduetodifferencesinindividualcountrymarketingAmericaandVietNam.marketingAmericaandVietNam.OILCROPSOILCROPSFAOMONTHLYINTERNATIONALPRICEINDICESFOROILSEEDS,VEGETABLEOILSANDMEALS/CAKES(2014-2016=100)502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Source:FAO100FAOMONTHLYINTERNATIONALPRICEINDICESFOROILSEEDS,VEGETABLEOILSANDMEALS/CAKES(2014-2016=100)502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Source:FAO100meals/cakesoilseeds150vegetableoils200250Marketsataglanceconditions,whereasthecropintheUnitedStatesofAmericacouldfallslightlybecauseofloweryields.InternationalrapeseedproductionispredictedtorisethankstofavourableoutlooksacrossAustralia,CanadaandtheEuropeanUnion.Bycontrast,worldsunflowerseedproductionisseendeclining,asthewarinUkrainehasdisruptedsowingactivitieswhileyieldsarealsoexpectedtofallasaresultofshortagesofinputs.Inthecaseofpalmoil,globaloutputisforecasttoriseaslingeringlabourshortageissuesinMalaysiacontinuetoconstrainthepotentialforahighergrowthrate.WORLDOILCROPANDPRODUCTMARKETATAGLANCESource:FAO2020/212021/222022/23 Change:estim. f’cast 2022/23WORLDOILCROPANDPRODUCTMARKETATAGLANCESource:FAO2020/212021/222022/23 Change:estim. f’cast 2022/23over2021/22milliontonnes %TOTALOILCROPSProductionOILSANDFATSProductionSupplyUtilizationTradeMajorexportersstocks-to-disappearanceratio(%)MEALSANDCAKESProductionSupplyUtilizationTradeMajorexportersstocks-to-disappearanceratio(%)617.8611.7 654.57.0241.6276.6245.9132.712.7245.1276.4243.5125.613.2255.4287.4251.9136.310.810.1160.2190.5160.2103.017.2157.4185.0160.3100.715.5170.2195.0164.4Jan–Dec(2014–2016=100)9.3 9.1 9.22020 2021 2022 Jan−Oct. Jan/Oct2022overJan/OctWiththeglobaloutputofoilcropderivedproductsseenexceedingconsumption,areplenishmentofworldstocksisenvisagedforbothoils/fatsandoilmealsbytheendofthe2022/23season,althoughthestocks-to-useratiosforbothproductsareanticipatedtoremainbelowtheirrespectivefive-yearaverages,implyingrelativelytightmarketoutlooks.Inlinewithsuchfundamentals,internationalpricesofoilseeds,vegetableoilsandoilmealscontinuedhoveringaroundmulti-yearhighlevelsinrecentmonths,afterspikingtoall-timehighsinearly2022.Inthecomingmonths,themarketsofoilcropsandtheirby-productswillbeinfluencedbynumerousuncertainties.Theseincludeclimaticconditionsinmajorgrowingregions,consumptionpatternsassociatedwithglobaleconomicprospects,thewarinUkraine,changesintradepolicies,thedirectionofbiodieseladmixturemandatesandcrudeoilprices.Foradditionalanalysesandupdates,see:OilcropsMonthlyPriceandPolicyUpdate/markets-and-trade/publications/en/?querystring=Oilseeds/amis-monitoring/amis-monitoringOilseeds9713916015.0Meals/cakes9211613315.1Contact:DiYangVegetableoils 99 165 195 20.9Note:ForexplanationsondefinitionsandcoveragekindlyrefertopreviousissuesofFoodOutlook.Source:FAO5FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20225FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER2022FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20226FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20226SUGARSUGARFAO’spreliminaryforecastforthe2022/23(October/September)seasonpegsworldsugarproductionat179.6milliontonnes,up4.5milliontonnes,or2.6percent,fromthe2021/22outturn.TheincreaseislargelyattributedtoexpectationsofasignificantrecoveryinBrazil’sproduction,theworld’slargestsugarproducerandexporter,andlargercropsinChinaandThailandthatmorethanoffsetlikelyreductionsintheEuropeanUnionandPakistan.WhileproductionprospectsinIndia,theworld’ssecondlargestsugarproducer,arefavourable,sugaroutputisanticipatedtofallshortofrecordlevelof2021/22,asadditionalvolumesofsugarcaneareforeseentobedivertedforethanolproduction.Globalsugarconsumptionisseenincreasingforathirdsuccessiveseasonin2022/23,up1milliontonnes,or0.6percent,fromthepreviousseason.Overall,theWORLDSUGARMARKETATAGLANCEyear-on-yeargrowthinconsumptionisexpectedtomostlyoriginateinAfrica,drivenbypopulationgrowthandurbanization,andAsia,reflectingrobustdemandfromthefoodprocessingindustry.thegrowthpaceofglobalsugarconsumptionwilllikelybemutedandlowerthanthelong-termtrend,amidtheprojectedsignificantdecelerationinglobaleconomicgrowthin2022/2023.Theslowerincreaseinconsumption,comparedtoproduction,expectedtopushthesugarmarketintoaglobalsurplusofWORLDSUGARMARKETATAGLANCE4.9milliontonnesin2022/23.Theforecastfortheworldsugartradein2022/23standsat61.2milliontonnes,whichcorrespondstoa1.8-percentincreaseovertheestimatedvolumefor2021/22.ForeseenhigherexportsfromBrazilandThailandwilllikelyoutweighexpectedlowershipmentsfromIndia,whichareforecasttobedownfromtheirrecordlevelin2021/22.Ontheimportside,itisanticipatedthatstrongpurchaseswillbemadebytraditionalimporters,inparticularChina,thelargestinternationalsugarbuyer,andIndonesia.ImportsbytheEuropeanUnionaresettoincreasefromlastyear,basedonprospectsofareduceddomesticsugaroutput.Afterreachingafive-yearhighinApril2022,internationalsugarpricesgenerallydecreasedinthefollowingmonths.Thepricedeclinesweremainlytheresultofaslowdownintheglobaleconomicactivitycoupledwithoverallgreaterworldavailabilities.Furtherdownwardpressureonsugarpriceswasexertedbylowerethanolprices,whichpromptedalargeruseofsugarcanetoproducesugarinBrazil,andtheweakeningoftheBrazilianrealagainsttheUnitedStateswhichpromptedgreaterexports.

INTERNATIONALSUGARPRICESINTERNATIONALSUGARPRICESSource:PricesrefertotheSugarNo.11contracttradedattheNewYorkIntercontinentalExchange(ICE)J F M A M J J A S O N D8201820201220191620212022UScentsperlb.242017202020/212021/22estim.2022/23f’castChange:2022/23over2021/22milliontonnes%WORLDBALANCEProduction 169.1 175.160.4 60.1utilization 170.1 173.7Endingstocks 102.4 103.7179.661.2SUPPLYANDDEMANDINDICATORSPercaputfoodconsumption:World(kg/yr) 21.7 22.0LIFDC(kg/yr) 12.8 12.860.2 59.721.912.762.1-0.2-1.24.0ISA2020 2021(UScents/lb)2022Jan−Oct.%ChangeJan/Oct2022overJan/Oct202112.9 17.718.56.2referstoexportsbasedonacommonOctober/Septembermarketingseason.Source:FAOMarketsatMarketsataglanceElMamounFabioPalmeriMEATANDMEATPRODUCTSMEATANDMEATPRODUCTSMarketsataMarketsataglance360milliontonnes(incarcassweightequivalent),upby1.2percentfrom2021.MuchoftheexpansionisforeseentooriginateinAsia,mainlyforpigmeatinChina,amidrecoveryfromtheAfricanswinefeverdisease,andinSouthAmerica,notablyforbovineandpoultrymeats,reflectingsolidinternationaldemand,whichwilllikelybeoffsetbyexpectedproductiondeclinesinEurope.Meatproductionsystemsworldwidecouldregistersetbacksin2022amidproducermarginerosionresultingfromrisinginputcosts,animaldiseasesandunfavourableweatherconditions.Insomecountries,thissituationhasledtohighandprematureliquidationofanimals,inducingcarcassweighttodecline,reducedoverallmeatproduction,orthescalingdownofproductiontoensurefinancialbuoyancy.WhileCOVID-19-relatedphysical-distancingrequirementshavebeensignificantlyrelaxed,theycontinuetodisruptmeatproductionvaluechainsandlimitthenormalmarketfunctioninginsomecountries.Worldmeattradein2022isforecasttototalnearly42milliontonnes,downby0.8percentfrom2021,principallyduetoapredicteddeclineinpigmeatimportsbyChinabecauseofrisinginternalproductionandlowerdomesticpricesearlierintheMeatimportsacrossothercountriesarelikelytobesubdued,reflectingeconomicdownturnsandhighworldmeatprices.Bycontrast,meatpurchasesbyseveralcountriesareexpectedtoincrease,includingtheUnitedKingdomofGreatBritainandNorthernIreland,theEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStatesofAmericaandtheRepublicofKorea,mainlybecauseofhigherinternaldemand.Nevertheless,tightsuppliesandhighdomesticdemandwilllikelylimitmeatshipmentsfromlargeexporters,suchastheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStatesofAmerica,CanadaandNewZealand.Bycontrast,highermeatexportsareforecastforBrazil,China,Türkiye,IndiaandThailand,benefittingfromhighdomesticavailabilitiesandthestrengthoftheUnitedStatesdollar.AfterrisingalmostuninterruptedlysinceOctober2020,theFAOMeatPriceIndexreachedanall-timehighinJune2022,drivenmainlybytightsuppliesacrossnearlyallmeattypesfromkeyexportingcountries.Meanwhile,globalmeatimportdemandhasbeensluggishinrecentmonths,impactedbyeconomicdownturns,highfoodimportcostsandfinancialconstraints,less-buoyantfoodservicesales,andincreaseddomesticavailabilityinafewlargemeat-producingcountries.Foradditionalanalysesandupdates,see:MeatMarketReviewhttps://www.f/markets-and-trade/publications/en/?news_files=113402Contact:UpaliGalketiAratchilageEmanueleMaroccoContact:UpaliGalketiAratchilageEmanueleMarocco

FAOINTERNATIONALMEATPRICEINDEX(2014−2016=100)FAOINTERNATIONALMEATPRICEINDEX(2014−2016=100)Source:FAOJ F M A M J J A S O N D90202010011020211202022130WORLDMEATMARKETATAGLANCEWORLDMEATMARKETATAGLANCE2020 estim.2020 estim.202f’casJune2tNov.Change:2022over2021milliontonnes(carcassweightequivalet)%WORLDBALANCEProduction 340.3 355.7360.5360.11.2Bovinemeat 71.9 72.873.273.91.4Poultrymeat 136.1 137.9138.8138.80.6Pigmeat 109.9 122.4125.6124.61.8Ovinemeat 16.2 16.316.616.50.941.7 42.042.341.6-0.8Bovinemeat 11.7 12.112.412.75.2Poultrymeat 15.5 15.8Pigmeat 13.0 12.712.211.3-11.3Ovinemeat 1.1 1.2SUPPLYANDDEMANDINDICATORSPercaputfoodconsumption:World(kg/year) 43.1 44.7-12.3 11.811.711.6-2.02020 2021(2014–2016=100)2022Jan−Oct.%ChangeJan/Oct2022Jan/Oct202196 10812012.2Source:FAO7FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20227FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER2022FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20228FOODOUTLOOKNOVEMBER20228MILKANDMILKPRODUCTSMILKANDMILKPRODUCTSWorldmilkproductionin2022isforecastat930milliontonnes,upby0.6percentfrom2021,theslowestgrowthpaceinthelasttwodecades.MuchoftheexpansionisforeseentooriginateinIndiaandPakistanonrisingdair