美国能源部+陆上风电市场报告：2022年版-91正式版

Land-BasedWindMarketReport:2022EditionThisreportisbeingdisseminatedbytheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE).Assuch,thisdocumentwaspreparedincompliancewithSection515oftheTreasuryandGeneralGovernmentAppropriationsActforfiscalyear2001(publiclaw106-554)andinformationqualityguidelinesissuedbyDOE.Thoughthisreportdoesnotconstitute“influential”information,asthattermisdefinedinDOE’sinformationqualityguidelinesortheOfficeofManagementandBudget’sInformationQualityBulletinforPeerReview,thestudywasreviewedbothinternallyandexternallypriortopublication.Forpurposesofreview,thestudybenefitedfromtheadviceandcommentsofelevenindustrystakeholders,U.S.Governmentemployees,andnationallaboratorystaff.NOTICEThisreportwaspreparedasanaccountofworksponsoredbyanagencyoftheUnitedStatesgovernment.NeithertheUnitedStatesgovernmentnoranyagencythereof,noranyoftheiremployees,makesanywarranty,expressorimplied,orassumesanylegalliabilityorresponsibilityfortheaccuracy,completeness,orusefulnessofanyinformation,apparatus,product,orprocessdisclosed,orrepresentsthatitsusewouldnotinfringeprivatelyownedrights.Referencehereintoanyspecificcommercialproduct,process,orservicebytradename,trademark,manufacturer,orotherwisedoesnotnecessarilyconstituteorimplyitsendorsement,recommendation,orfavoringbytheUnitedStatesgovernmentoranyagencythereof.TheviewsandopinionsofauthorsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectthoseoftheUnitedStatesgovernmentoranyagencythereof.AvailableelectronicallyatSciTechConnect:/scitechAvailableforaprocessingfeetoU.S.DepartmentofEnergyanditscontractors,inpaper,from:U.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofScientificandTechnicalInformationP.O.Box62OakRidge,TN37831-0062OSTI:Phone:865.576.8401Fax:865.576.5728Email:reports@Availableforsaletothepublic,inpaper,from:U.S.DepartmentofCommerceNationalTechnicalInformationService5301ShawneeRoadAlexandria,VA22312NTIS:Phone:800.553.6847or703.605.6000Fax:703.605.6900Email:orders@iiLand-BasedWindMarketReportPreparationandAuthorshipThisreportwaspreparedbyLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryfortheWindEnergyTechnologiesOfficeoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy’sOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy.Correspondingauthorsofthereportare:RyanWiserandMarkBolinger,LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory.Thefullauthorlistincludes:RyanWiser,MarkBolinger,BenHoen,DevMillstein,JoeRand,GalenBarbose,NaïmDarghouth,WillGorman,SeongeunJeong,andBenPaulos.iiiLand-BasedWindMarketReportAcknowledgmentsFortheirsupportofthisongoingreportseries,theauthorsthanktheentireU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)WindEnergyTechnologiesOfficeteam.Inparticular,weacknowledgeGageReberandPatrickGilman.Forreviewingelementsofthisreportorprovidingkeyinput,wealsothank:ManussaweeSukunta(U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration);AndrewDavid(SilveradoPolicyAccelerator);CharlieSmith(EnergySystemsIntegrationGroup);FengZhao(GlobalWindEnergyCouncil);DavidMilborrow(consultant);JohnHensley(AmericanCleanPowerAssociation);MattoxHall(Vestas);AaronBarr(WoodMackenzie);andPatrickGilman,GageReber,andLizHartman(DOE).Forprovidingdatathatunderlieaspectsofthereport,wethanktheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,BloombergNEF,WoodMackenzie,GlobalWindEnergyCouncil,andtheAmericanCleanPowerAssociation.ThanksalsotoDonnaHeimiller(NREL)forassistanceinmappingwindresourcequality;andtoAmyHowerton,CarolLaurieandAlexsandraLemke(NREL),andLizHartmanandHeatherDoty(DOE)forassistancewithlayout,formatting,production,andcommunications.LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory’scontributionstothisreportwerefundedbytheWindEnergyTechnologiesOffice,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyoftheDOEunderContractNo.DE-AC02-05CH11231.Theauthorsaresolelyresponsibleforanyomissionsorerrorscontainedherein.ivLand-BasedWindMarketReportListofAcronymsACP AmericanCleanPowerAssociationBPA BonnevillePowerAdministrationCAISO CaliforniaIndependentSystemOperatorCOD commercialoperationdateCCA communitychoiceaggregatorDOE U.S.DepartmentofEnergyEIA U.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationERCOT ElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexasFAA FederalAviationAdministrationFERC FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionGE GeneralElectricCorporationGW gigawattHTS HarmonizedTariffScheduleIOU investor-ownedutilityIPP independentpowerproducerISO independentsystemoperatorISO-NE NewEnglandIndependentSystemOperatorITC investmenttaxcreditkV kilovoltkW kilowattkWh kilowatt-hourLCOE levelizedcostofenergym2 squaremeterMISO MidcontinentIndependentSystemOperatorMW megawattMWh megawatt-hourNREL NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryNYISO NewYorkIndependentSystemOperatorO&M operationsandmaintenanceOEM originalequipmentmanufacturerPJM PJMInterconnectionPOU publiclyownedutilityPPA powerpurchaseagreementPTC productiontaxcreditREC renewableenergycertificatevLand-BasedWindMarketReportRPS renewablesportfoliostandardRTO regionaltransmissionorganizationSGRE SiemensGamesaRenewableEnergySPP SouthwestPowerPoolwattWAPA WesternAreaPowerAdministrationWECC WesternElectricityCoordinatingCouncilviLand-BasedWindMarketReportExecutiveSummaryWindpoweradditionsintheUnitedStatestotaled13.4gigawatts(GW)in2021.Recentgrowthissupportedbytheindustry’sprimaryfederalincentive—theproductiontaxcredit(PTC)—aswellasamyriadofstate-levelpolicies.Long-termimprovementsinthecostandperformanceofwindpowertechnologieshavealsobeenkeydriversforwindcapacityadditions,evenassupplychainconstraintsduetoincreasedcommodityandtransportationcostsandCOVID-19restrictionspushcostshigher.Keyfindingsfromthisyear’sLand-BasedWindMarketReport—whichprimarilyfocusesonland-based,utility-scalewind—include:InstallationTrendsU.S.windpowercapacitygrewatastrongpacein2021,with13.4GWofnewcapacityaddedand$20billioninvested.Cumulativewindcapacitygrewtonearly136gigawatts(GW)bytheendof2021.Inaddition,1.6GWofexistingwindplantswerepartiallyrepoweredin2021,mostlybyupgradingrotorsandnacellecomponents.WindpowerrepresentedthesecondlargestsourceofU.S.electric-powercapacityadditionsin2021,at32%,behindsolar’s45%.Windpowerconstituted32%ofallgenerationandstoragecapacityadditionsin2021.Overthelastdecade,windrepresented30%oftotalcapacityadditions,andalargerfractionofnewcapacityinSPP(83%),ERCOT(52%),MISO(52%),andthenon-ISOWest(33%).1Globally,theUnitedStatesagainrankedsecondinannualwindcapacity,butremainedwellbehindthemarketleadersinwindenergypenetration.Globalgrid-connectedwindadditionstotaled94GWin2021,yieldingacumulative839GW.TheUnitedStatesremainedthesecond-leadingmarketintermsofannualandcumulativecapacity,behindChina.Anumberofcountrieshaveachievedhighlevelsofwindpenetration,withwindsupplying44%ofDenmark’stotalelectricitygenerationin2021,andover20%inIreland,Portugal,Spain,Germany,andtheU.K.IntheUnitedStates,windsupplied9.1%.Texasinstalledthemostwindcapacityin2021with3,343MW,followedbyOklahoma,NewMexicoandKansas;elevenstatesexceeded20%windenergypenetration.Texasalsoremainedtheleaderonacumulativebasis,withnearly36GWofcapacity.Notably,thewindcapacityinstalledinIowasupplied55%ofallin-stateelectricitygenerationin2021,whileSouthDakota(52%),Kansas(45%),Oklahoma(41%),andNorthDakota(34%)wereallabove30%.Withinindependentsystemoperators(ISOs),windpenetration(expressedasapercentageofload)was34.8%inSPP,24.2%inERCOT,12.0%inMISO,8.4%inCAISO,3.5%inPJM,3.0%inISO-NE,and2.7%inNYISO.Hybridwindplantsthatpairwindwithstorageandotherresourcessawlimitedgrowthin2021,withjusttwonewprojectscompleted.Therewere41hybridwindpowerplantsinoperationattheendof2021,representing2.4GWofwindand0.9GWofco-locatedassets.Themostcommonwindhybridprojectcombineswindandstoragetechnology,where1.4GWofwindhasbeenpairedwith0.2GWofbatterystorage.Theaveragestoragedurationoftheseprojectsis0.6hours,suggestingafocusonancillaryservicesandlimitedcapacitytoshiftlargeamountsofenergyacrosstime.Whileonlytwonewwindhybridswerecommissionedin2021,solarhybridsexpandedrapidlywith67newPV+storageprojectscomingonlinein2021.ThenineregionsmostcommonlyusedinthisreportaretheSouthwestPowerPool(SPP),ElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexas(ERCOT),MidcontinentIndependentSystemOperator(MISO),CaliforniaIndependentSystemOperator(CAISO),ISONewEngland(ISO-NE),PJMInterconnection(PJM),andNewYorkIndependentSystemOperator(NYISO),andthenon-ISOWestandSoutheast.viiLand-BasedWindMarketReportArecord-high247GWofwindpowercapacitynowexistsintransmissioninterconnectionqueues,butsolarandstoragearegrowingatamuchmorerapidpace.Attheendof2021,therewere247GWofwindcapacityseekingtransmissioninterconnection,including77GWofoffshorewindand19GWofhybridwindprojects(inthelattercase,mostlywindpairedwithstorage).In2021,73GWofwindcapacityenteredinterconnectionqueues.Energystorageinterconnectionrequestshaveincreasedrapidlyinrecentyears,bothforstand-aloneandhybridplants,most-oftenpairingsolarwithstorage.TheWest(non-ISO),SPP,andNYISOregionshadthegreatestquantityofwindintheirqueuesattheendof2021.Roughlyone-thirdofallwindcapacityaddedtoqueuesin2021wasforoffshorewindplants.IndustryTrendsJustfourturbinemanufacturers,ledbyGE,suppliedalloftheU.S.windpowercapacityinstalledin2021.In2021,GEcaptured47%oftheU.S.marketforturbineinstallations,followedbyVestasat26%andSiemens-GamesaRenewableEnergy(SGRE)andNordex,bothat13%.2Thedomesticwindindustrysupplychaincontractedin2021,witha50%declineinblademanufacturingcapability.Domesticnacelleassemblyandtowermanufacturingcapabilitydeclinedmodestlyin2021,toanequivalent12.3GWand9.2GWperyear,respectively.Blademanufacturingcapabilityplummetedby50%,however,asthreedomesticmanufacturingfacilitiesclosedoridled,andstoodat4.6GWperyear.Morebroadly,fiercecompetitionandsupply-chainconstraintsresultedinlowprofitmarginsforturbinemanufacturers.Nonetheless,wind-relatedjobtotalsintheUnitedStatesincreasedin2021,to120,164.Domesticmanufacturingcontentisstrongforsomewindturbinecomponents,buttheU.S.windindustryremainsreliantonimports,whichtotaled$3.1billionin2021.TheUnitedStatesimportswindequipmentfrommanycountries,includingmostprominentlyin2021:Mexico,Spain,andIndia.Domesticcontentishighestfornacelleassembly(>85%)andtowers(55%–70%).Forblades,itdeclinedprecipitouslytojust15–25%in2021ascompetitivepressuresmadebladeimportsmoreeconomicalthandomesticallyproducedblades.Independentpowerproducersownthemajorityofwindassetsbuiltin2021,followinghistoricaltrends.Independentpowerproducers(IPPs)own75%ofthenewwindcapacityinstalledintheUnitedStatesin2021,withtheremainingassets(25%)ownedbyinvestor-ownedutilities.Directretailsalesandmerchantofftakearrangementsforwind,incombination,matchedorsurpassedlong-termcontractedwindsalestoutilitiesin2021.Electricutilitieseitherown(25%)orbuyelectricity(19%)fromwindprojectsthat,intotal,represent44%ofthenewwindcapacityinstalledin2021.Butdirectretailpurchasersofwind—includingcorporateofftakers—accountforatleast35%,whilemerchant/quasi-merchantprojectsandpowermarketersmakeupatleastanother7%and2%,respectively.Theremainder(11%)ispresentlyundisclosed.TechnologyTrendsTurbinecapacity,rotordiameter,andhubheighthaveallincreasedsignificantlyoverthelongterm.Tooptimizeprojectcostandperformance,andthusminimizeoverallcostofenergy,turbinescontinuetogrowinsize.Theaveragerated(nameplate)capacityofnewlyinstalledwindturbinesintheUnitedStatesin2021was3.0MW,up9%fromthepreviousyearand319%since1998−1999.Theaveragerotordiameterofnewlyinstalledturbinesin2021was127.5meters,a2%increaseover2020and164%over1998−1999,whiletheaveragehubheightwas93.9meters,up4%from2020and66%since1998−1999.Numericalvaluespresentedhereandelsewheremaynotaddto100%,duetorounding.viiiLand-BasedWindMarketReportTurbinesoriginallydesignedforlowerwindspeedsitesdominatethemarket,butthetrendtowardslowerspecificpowerhasreversedoverthelasttwoyears.Withgrowthinsweptrotorareaoutpacinggrowthinnameplatecapacity,therehasbeenadeclineintheaverage“specificpower”3(inW/m2),from393W/m2amongprojectsinstalledin1998–1999to231W/m2amongprojectsinstalledin2021—thoughspecificpowerhasmodestlyincreasedoverthelasttwoyears.Turbineswithlowspecificpowerwereoriginallydesignedforlowerwindspeedsites,butarenowbeingusedatmanysitesasthemostattractivetechnology.Windturbinesweredeployedinsomewhatlowerwind-speedsitesin2021thanintheprevioussevenyears.Windturbinesinstalledin2021werelocatedinsiteswithanaverageestimatedlong-termwindspeedof8.0meterspersecondataheightof100metersabovetheground—thisisthelowestaveragelong-termwindspeedamongnewlybuiltprojectsinthelasteightyears.FederalAviationAdministration(FAA)andindustrydataonprojectsthatareeitherunderconstructionorindevelopmentsuggestthatthesiteslikelytobebuiltoutoverthenextfewyearswill,onaverage,haveevenloweraveragewindspeeds.Increasinghubheightshelptopartiallyoffsetthesetrends,enablingturbinestoaccesshigherwindspeeds.Low-specific-powerturbinesaredeployedonawidespreadbasis;tallertowersareseeingincreaseduseinawidervarietyofsites.Lowspecificpowerturbinescontinuetobedeployedinallregions,andatbothlowerandhigherwindspeedsites.Thetallesttowers(i.e.,thoseabove100meters)arefoundingreaterrelativefrequencyintheupperMidwestandNortheasternregions.Windprojectsplannedforthenearfuturearepoisedtocontinuethetrendofever-tallerturbines.Theaverage“tipheight”(fromgroundtobladetipextendeddirectlyoverhead)amongprojectsthatcameonlinein2021is517feet(158meters).FAAdatasuggestthatfutureprojectswilldeployeventallerturbines.Among“proposed”turbinesintheFAApermittingprocess,theaveragetipheightreachesanaverageof643feet(196meters).In2021,twelvewindprojectswerepartiallyrepowered,mostofwhichnowfeaturesignificantlylargerrotorsandlowerspecificpowerratings.Partiallyrepoweredprojectsin2021totaled1.6GWpriortorepowering,adeclinefromtheroughly3GWofprojectspartiallyrepoweredineachoftheprevioustwoyears.Ofthechangesmadetotheturbines,largerrotorsdominated,reducingspecificpowerfrom312to223W/m2.Theprimarymotivationsforpartialrepoweringhavebeentore-qualifyforthePTC,whileatthesametimeincreasingenergyproductionandextendingtheusefullifeoftheprojects.PerformanceTrendsTheaveragecapacityfactorin2021was35%onafleet-widebasisand39%amongwindprojectsbuiltinrecentyears.Theaverage2021capacityfactoramongprojectsbuiltfrom2014to2020was39%,comparedtoanaverageof26%amongprojectsbuiltfrom2004to2011,and19%amongprojectsbuiltfrom1998to2001.Thisimprovementamongmore-recentlybuiltprojectshaspushedthecumulativefleet-widecapacityfactorhigherovertime;itwas35%in2021.The2021capacityfactorforprojectsbuiltin2020was38%,somewhatlowerthanforprojectsbuiltfrom2014to2020.Stateandregionalvariationsincapacityfactorsreflectthestrengthofthewindresource;capacityfactorsarehighestinthecentralpartofthecountry.Basedonprojectsbuiltfrom2016to2020,averagecapacityfactorsin2021werehighestincentralstatesandlowerclosertothecoasts.Notsurprisingly,thestateandregionalrankingsareroughlyconsistentwiththerelativequalityofthewindresourceineachregion.Awindturbine’sspecificpoweristheratioofitsnameplatecapacityratingtoitsrotor-sweptarea.Allelseequal,adeclineinspecificpowershouldleadtoanincreaseincapacityfactor.ixLand-BasedWindMarketReportTurbinedesignandsitecharacteristicsinfluenceperformance,withdecliningspecificpowerleadingtosizableincreasesincapacityfactoroverthelongterm.Thedeclineinspecificpowerhasbeenamajorcontributortohighercapacityfactors,buthasbeenoffsetinpartbyatendencytowardbuildingprojectsatsiteswithlowerannualaveragewindspeeds.Asaresult,averagecapacityfactorsoverthelasteightyearshavebeenreasonablestable,withsomeevidenceofmodestdeclinesmostrecentlyasspecificpowerhasdriftedupwardsandsitequalityhasmodestlydecreased.Windpowercurtailmentin2021acrosssevenregionsaveraged4.8%,upfromalowof2.1%in2016.AcrossallISOs,windenergycurtailmentin2021stoodat4.8%—generallyrisingoverthelastfiveyears.Thisaveragemasksvariationacrossregionsandprojects.SPP(6.4%),ERCOT(5.2%),andMISO(4.7%)experiencedthehighestratesofwindcurtailment,whiletheotherfourISOswereeachat2%orless.2021wasanaveragewindresourceyearacrossmostofthecountry.Thestrengthofthewindresourcevariesfromyeartoyear;moreover,thedegreeofinter-annualvariationdiffersfromsitetosite(and,hence,alsoregiontoregion).Thistemporalandspatialvariationimpactsprojectperformancefromyeartoyear.In2021,thenationalwindindexstoodatitslong-termaverage,asmostregionsexperiencedafairlyaveragewindyear(CAISOandNYISOexcepted).Windprojectperformancedegradationalsoexplainswhyolderprojectsdidnotperformaswellin2021.Capacityfactordatasuggestsomeamountofperformancedeclinewithprojectage,thoughperhapsmostlyonceprojectsagebeyond10years.Theapparentdeclineincapacityfactorsasprojectsprogressintotheirseconddecadepartiallyexplainswhyolderprojects—e.g.,thosebuiltfrom1998to2001—didnotperformaswellasnewerprojectsin2021.Fromyear15to20,projectperformanceappearstoaverageroughly75%ofearly-yearperformance.CostTrendsWindturbinepricesincreasedbyanaverageof5%to10%in2021givensupplychainpressures.Windturbinepricesdeclinedby50%between2008and2020.However,recentsupply-chainpressuresandrisingcommoditypricesledtoincreasedturbinepricesin2021.Dataindicaterecentpricinggenerallyintherangeof$800/kWto$950/kW,4roughly5%to10%higherthanayearprior.Installedprojectcostsin2021heldsteadyatanaverageof$1,500/kWevenasturbinepricesrose.Thecapacity-weightedaverageinstalledcostwithinasampleof2021projectsstoodat$1,500/kW.Thisisadecreaseofmorethan40%fromthepeakinaveragecostsin2009and2010,butisroughlyonparwiththecostsexperiencedintheearly2000s—albeitwithmuchlargerturbinesandimprovedperformancetoday.Installedcostshavelargelyheldsteadyoverthelastfouryears.Giventhetime-lagbetweenturbineordersandprojectcommissioning,installedprojectcostsmayrisein2022.Installedcostsdifferedbyregion,from$1,350/kWto$1,600/kW.ERCOTandthe(non-California)Westernstateshostedthelowest-costprojectsbuiltin2021,withaveragecostsof$1,350/kWand$1,380/kWrespectively.Higheraveragecostswereexperiencedinotherregionsforprojectsinstalledin2021;forexample,averagecostsinSPPandMISOwere$1,500/kWand$1,600/kW,respectively.Installedcosts(permegawatt)generallydeclinewithprojectsize;arelowestforprojectsover200MW.Installedcostsexhibiteconomiesofscale,withcostsdecliningasprojectcapacityincreases.Operationsandmaintenancecostsvariedbyprojectageandcommercialoperationsdate.Despitelimiteddataavailability,projectsinstalledoverthepast15yearshave,onaverage,incurredloweroperationsandmaintenance(O&M)coststhanolderprojectsintheirfirstyearsofoperation.ThedataalsosuggestthatO&Mcoststendtoincreaseasprojectsage,atleastfortheolderprojectsinthesample.Allcostfigurespresentedinthereportaredenominatedinreal2021dollars.xLand-BasedWindMarketReportPowerSalesPriceandLevelizedCostTrendsWindpowerpurchaseagreementpriceshavebeendriftinghighersinceabout2018,witharecentrangefrombelow$20/MWhtomorethan$30/MWh.ThecombinationofdecliningCapExandOpExandimprovedperformancedrovewindPPApricestoall-timelowsthrough2018,thoughpriceshavesincestabilizedandevenincreasedsomewhat—inpartduetosupply-chainpressuresandperhapsalsoduetotheongoingphase-downofthePTC.IntheCentralregionofthecountry,recentpricingisaround$20/MWh.IntheWestandEast,pricestendtoaverageabove$30/MWh.LevelTenEnergy’sPPApriceindicesconfirmrisingPPAprices,andregionalvariations.IncontrasttothePPAssummarizedabove,whichprincipallyinvolveutilitypurchasers,LevelTenEnergyprovidesanindexofwindPPAoffersmadetolarge,end-usecustomers.Thesedataalsoshowthatpriceshavegenerallyrisenoverthelastcoupleyears,andvarybyISO.Amongregionsreportingdata,CAISOfeaturesthehighestpricing(~$52/MWhonceconvertedto2021dollarterms);thelowestpricesarefoundinERCOTandSPP(~$25/MWhin2021dollars).Inrealdollarterms,LevelTen’sreportedpricetrendssince2018aresimilartothereal-dollardenominatedPPAtrendsdescribedinthepriorsection.The(unsubsidized)averagelevelizedcostofwindenergyhasfallentoaround$32/MWh.Trendsinthelevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)generallyfollowPPAtrends,atleastoverthelongterm.Wind’sLCOEgenerallydecreasedfrom1998to2005,rosethrough2009,andthendeclinedthrough2018,withasubsequentplateauoverthelastseveralyears.ThenationalaverageLCOEofwindprojectsbuiltin2021—excludingthePTC—was$32/MWh.Assupplychainpressurescontinue,LCOEmaybeexpectedtoriseinthenearterm.Levelizedcostsvarybyregion,withthelowestcostsinERCOT,SPP,andthenon-ISOWest.ThelowestLCOEsforprojectsconstructedin2021—onlyconsideringregionswithalargersample—arefoundinERCOT($28/MWh),SPP($30/MWh),andthenon-ISOWest($29/MWh).CostandValueComparisonsDespitelowPPAprices,windfacescompetitionfromsolarandgas.Theonce-widegapbetweenwindandsolarPPApriceshasnarrowedconsiderablyinrecentyears,assolarpriceshavefallenmorerapidlythanwindprices.Withthesupportoffederaltaxincentives,bothwindandsolarPPApricesarenowbelowtheprojectedcostofburningnaturalgasingas-firedcombinedcycleunits.Thegrid-systemmarketvalueofwindreboundedin2021tolevelslastseenin2018,andisroughlyconsistentwithrecentPPApricesofunder$20/MWhto$40/MWh.Followingthesharpdropinwholesaleelectricityprices(and,hence,windenergymarketvalue)in2009,averagewindPPApricestendedtoexceedthewholesalemarketvalueofwindthrough2012.ContinueddeclinesinwindPPApricesbroughtthosepricesbackinlinewiththemarketvalueofwindin2013,andwindhasgenerallyremainedcompetitiveinsubsequentyears.In2021,windenergyvaluereboundedfromthe2020lowassociatedwiththepandemic.Thenationalaveragemarketvalueofwindin2021was$26/MWh.Withhighnaturalgasandwholesalepowerpricessofarin2022,wind’saveragemarketvaluemayincreaseagainthisyear.Thegrid-systemmarketvalueofwindin2021variedbyprojectlocation,fromanaverageof$16/MWhinMISOto$48/MWhinCAISO.Regionally,windmarketvaluein2021waslowestinMISOandSPP(averageof$16/MWhand$19/MWh,respectively)andhighestinCAISOandISO-NE($48/MWhand$44/MWh).ThemarketvalueacrossallwindprojectslocatedinISOsspanned$7/MWhto$48/MWhin2021(10th–90thpercentilerange).Withinaregion,transmissioncongestioncannoticeablyreducethegrid-valueofwindplants.Insomesituations,windpatternsarelocallydifferentiated,andcanleadtovalueenhancementsorreductionsversusplantslocatedelsewhere.xiLand-BasedWindMarketReportThegrid-systemmarketvalueofwindtendstodeclinewithwindpenetration,impactedbygenerationprofile,transmissioncongestion,and