曼昆经济学原理宏观经济学分册英文原 课件

©2007ThomsonSouth-Western©2007ThomsonSouth-WesternMeasuringtheCostofLivingInflationreferstoasituationinwhichtheeconomy’soverallpricelevelisrising.Theinflationrateisthepercentagechangeinthepricelevelfromthepreviousperiod.MeasuringtheCostofLivingInTHECONSUMERPRICEINDEXTheconsumerpriceindex(CPI)

isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.TheBureauofLaborStatistics

reportstheCPIeachmonth.Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime.THECONSUMERPRICEINDEXThecoTHECONSUMERPRICEINDEXWhentheCPIrises,thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving.THECONSUMERPRICEINDEXWhentHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated1.Fixthebasket.Determinewhatpricesaremostimportanttothetypicalconsumer.TheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS)identifiesamarketbasketofgoodsandservicesthetypicalconsumerbuys.TheBLSconductsmonthlyconsumersurveystosettheweightsforthepricesofthosegoodsandservices.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated2.Findtheprices.Findthepricesofeachofthegoodsandservicesinthebasketforeachpointintime.3.Computethebasket’scost.Usethedataonpricestocalculatethecostofthebasketofgoodsandservicesatdifferenttimes.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated4.Chooseabaseyearandcomputetheindex.Designateoneyearasthebaseyear,makingitthebenchmarkagainstwhichotheryearsarecompared.Computetheindexbydividingthepriceofthebasketinoneyearbythepriceinthebaseyearandmultiplyingby100.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated5.Computetheinflationrate.Theinflationrateisthepercentagechangeinthepriceindexfromtheprecedingperiod.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculatedTheinflationrateiscalculatedasfollows:HowtheConsumerPriceIndexITable1CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate:AnExampleTable1CalculatingtheConsumTable1CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate:AnExampleTable1CalculatingtheConsumHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculatedCalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate:AnotherExampleBaseYearis2002.Basketofgoodsin2002costs$1,200.Thesamebasketin2004costs$1,236.CPI=($1,236/$1,200)100=103.Pricesincreased3percentbetween2002and2004.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIFYI:WhatIsintheCPI’sBasket?17%Transportation15%FoodandbeveragesMedicalcare6%Recreation6%Apparel4%Othergoodsandservices4%42%Housing6%EducationandcommunicationFYI:WhatIsintheCPI’sBaskProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingTheCPIisanaccuratemeasureoftheselectedgoodsthatmakeupthetypicalbundle,butitisnotaperfectmeasureofthecostofliving.SubstitutionbiasIntroductionofnewgoodsUnmeasuredqualitychangesProblemsinMeasuringtheCostProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingSubstitutionBiasThebasketdoesnotchangetoreflectconsumerreactiontochangesinrelativeprices.Consumerssubstitutetowardgoodsthathavebecomerelativelylessexpensive.Theindexoverstatestheincreaseincostoflivingbynotconsideringconsumersubstitution.ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingIntroductionofNewGoodsThebasketdoesnotreflectthechangeinpurchasingpowerbroughtonbytheintroductionofnewproducts.Newproductsresultingreatervariety,whichinturnmakeseachdollarmorevaluable.Consumersneedfewerdollarstomaintainanygivenstandardofliving.ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingUnmeasuredQualityChangesIfthequalityofagoodrisesfromoneyeartothenext,thevalueofadollarrises,evenifthepriceofthegoodstaysthesame.Ifthequalityofagoodfallsfromoneyeartothenext,thevalueofadollarfalls,evenifthepriceofthegoodstaysthesame.TheBLStriestoadjustthepriceforconstantquality,butsuchdifferencesarehardtomeasure.ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingThesubstitutionbias,introductionofnewgoods,andunmeasuredqualitychangescausetheCPItooverstatethetruecostofliving.TheissueisimportantbecausemanygovernmentprogramsusetheCPItoadjustforchangesintheoveralllevelofprices.TheCPIoverstatesinflationbyabout1percentagepointperyear.ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexTheBLScalculatesotherpricesindexes:Theindexfordifferentregionswithinthecountry.Theproducerpriceindex,whichmeasuresthecostofabasketofgoodsandservicesboughtbyfirmsratherthanconsumers.TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexEconomistsandpolicymakersmonitorboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising.Therearetwoimportantdifferencesbetweentheindexesthatcancausethemtodiverge.TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexTheGDPdeflatorreflectsthepricesofallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically,whereas...…theconsumerpriceindexreflectsthepricesofallgoodsandservicesboughtbyconsumers.TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexTheconsumerpriceindexcomparesthepriceofafixedbasketofgoodsandservicestothepriceofthebasketinthebaseyear(onlyoccasionallydoestheBLSchangethebasket)...…whereastheGDPdeflatorcomparesthepriceofcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservicestothepriceofthesamegoodsandservicesinthebaseyear.TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoFigure2TwoMeasuresofInflation1965PercentperYear15CPIGDPdeflator105019701975198019851990200019952005Figure2TwoMeasuresofInflaCORRECTINGECONOMICVARIABLESFORTHEEFFECTSOFINFLATIONPriceindexesareusedtocorrectfortheeffectsofinflationwhencomparingdollarfiguresfromdifferenttimes.CORRECTINGECONOMICVARIABLESDollarFiguresfromDifferentTimesDothefollowingtoconvertdollarvaluesfromyearTintotoday’sdollars:Amountintoday’sdollarsAmountinyearT’sdollarsPriceleveltodayPricelevelinyearT=DollarFiguresfromDifferentDollarFiguresfromDifferentTimesDothefollowingtoconvert(inflate)BabeRuth’swagesin1931todollarsin2005:SalarySalaryPricelevelin2005Pricelevelin193120051931===$80,.$0001951521,026,316DollarFiguresfromDifferentIndexationWhensomedollaramountisautomaticallycorrectedforinflationbylaworcontract,theamountissaidtobeindexedforinflation.IndexationWhensomedollaramoTable2TheMostPopularMoviesofAllTimes,InflationAdjustedTable2TheMostPopularMovieRealandNominalInterestRatesInterestrepresentsapaymentinthefutureforatransferofmoneyinthepast.RealandNominalInterestRateRealandNominalInterestRatesThenominalinterestrateistheinterestrateusuallyreportedandnotcorrectedforinflation.Itistheinterestratethatabankpays.Therealinterestrateistheinterestratethatiscorrectedfortheeffectsofinflation.RealandNominalInterestRateRealandNominalInterestRatesYouborrowed$1,000foroneyear.Nominalinterestratewas15%.Duringtheyearinflationwas10%.Realinterestrate=Nominalinterestrate–Inflation=15%–10%=5%RealandNominalInterestRateFigure3RealandNominalInterestRates1965InterestRates(percentperyear)15%Realinterestrate1050519701975198019851990199520002005NominalinterestrateFigure3RealandNominalInteTheconsumerpriceindexshowsthecostofabasketofgoodsandservicesrelativetothecostofthesamebasketinthebaseyear.Theindexisusedtomeasuretheoveralllevelofpricesintheeconomy.ThepercentagechangeintheCPImeasurestheinflationrate.TheconsumerpriceindexshowsTheconsumerpriceindexisanimperfectmeasureofthecostoflivingforthefollowingthreereasons:substitutionbias,theintroductionofnewgoods,andunmeasuredchangesinquality.Becauseofmeasurementproblems,theCPIoverstatesannualinflationbyabout1percentagepoint.TheconsumerpriceindexisanTheGDPdeflatordiffersfromtheCPIbecauseitincludesgoodsandservicesproducedratherthangoodsandservicesconsumed.Inaddition,theCPIusesafixedbasketofgoods,whiletheGDPdeflatorautomaticallychangesthegroupofgoodsandservicesovertimeasthecompositionofGDPchanges.TheGDPdeflatordiffersfromDollarfiguresfromdifferentpointsintimedonotrepresentavalidcomparisonofpurchasingpower.Variouslawsandprivatecontractsusepriceindexestocorrectfortheeffectsofinflation.Therealinterestrateequalsthenominalinterestrateminustherateofinflation.Dollarfiguresfromdifferent©2007ThomsonSouth-Western©2007ThomsonSouth-WesternMeasuringtheCostofLivingInflationreferstoasituationinwhichtheeconomy’soverallpricelevelisrising.Theinflationrateisthepercentagechangeinthepricelevelfromthepreviousperiod.MeasuringtheCostofLivingInTHECONSUMERPRICEINDEXTheconsumerpriceindex(CPI)

isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.TheBureauofLaborStatistics

reportstheCPIeachmonth.Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime.THECONSUMERPRICEINDEXThecoTHECONSUMERPRICEINDEXWhentheCPIrises,thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving.THECONSUMERPRICEINDEXWhentHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated1.Fixthebasket.Determinewhatpricesaremostimportanttothetypicalconsumer.TheBureauofLaborStatistics(BLS)identifiesamarketbasketofgoodsandservicesthetypicalconsumerbuys.TheBLSconductsmonthlyconsumersurveystosettheweightsforthepricesofthosegoodsandservices.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated2.Findtheprices.Findthepricesofeachofthegoodsandservicesinthebasketforeachpointintime.3.Computethebasket’scost.Usethedataonpricestocalculatethecostofthebasketofgoodsandservicesatdifferenttimes.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated4.Chooseabaseyearandcomputetheindex.Designateoneyearasthebaseyear,makingitthebenchmarkagainstwhichotheryearsarecompared.Computetheindexbydividingthepriceofthebasketinoneyearbythepriceinthebaseyearandmultiplyingby100.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculated5.Computetheinflationrate.Theinflationrateisthepercentagechangeinthepriceindexfromtheprecedingperiod.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculatedTheinflationrateiscalculatedasfollows:HowtheConsumerPriceIndexITable1CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate:AnExampleTable1CalculatingtheConsumTable1CalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate:AnExampleTable1CalculatingtheConsumHowtheConsumerPriceIndexIsCalculatedCalculatingtheConsumerPriceIndexandtheInflationRate:AnotherExampleBaseYearis2002.Basketofgoodsin2002costs$1,200.Thesamebasketin2004costs$1,236.CPI=($1,236/$1,200)100=103.Pricesincreased3percentbetween2002and2004.HowtheConsumerPriceIndexIFYI:WhatIsintheCPI’sBasket?17%Transportation15%FoodandbeveragesMedicalcare6%Recreation6%Apparel4%Othergoodsandservices4%42%Housing6%EducationandcommunicationFYI:WhatIsintheCPI’sBaskProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingTheCPIisanaccuratemeasureoftheselectedgoodsthatmakeupthetypicalbundle,butitisnotaperfectmeasureofthecostofliving.SubstitutionbiasIntroductionofnewgoodsUnmeasuredqualitychangesProblemsinMeasuringtheCostProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingSubstitutionBiasThebasketdoesnotchangetoreflectconsumerreactiontochangesinrelativeprices.Consumerssubstitutetowardgoodsthathavebecomerelativelylessexpensive.Theindexoverstatestheincreaseincostoflivingbynotconsideringconsumersubstitution.ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingIntroductionofNewGoodsThebasketdoesnotreflectthechangeinpurchasingpowerbroughtonbytheintroductionofnewproducts.Newproductsresultingreatervariety,whichinturnmakeseachdollarmorevaluable.Consumersneedfewerdollarstomaintainanygivenstandardofliving.ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingUnmeasuredQualityChangesIfthequalityofagoodrisesfromoneyeartothenext,thevalueofadollarrises,evenifthepriceofthegoodstaysthesame.Ifthequalityofagoodfallsfromoneyeartothenext,thevalueofadollarfalls,evenifthepriceofthegoodstaysthesame.TheBLStriestoadjustthepriceforconstantquality,butsuchdifferencesarehardtomeasure.ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostProblemsinMeasuringtheCostofLivingThesubstitutionbias,introductionofnewgoods,andunmeasuredqualitychangescausetheCPItooverstatethetruecostofliving.TheissueisimportantbecausemanygovernmentprogramsusetheCPItoadjustforchangesintheoveralllevelofprices.TheCPIoverstatesinflationbyabout1percentagepointperyear.ProblemsinMeasuringtheCostTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexTheBLScalculatesotherpricesindexes:Theindexfordifferentregionswithinthecountry.Theproducerpriceindex,whichmeasuresthecostofabasketofgoodsandservicesboughtbyfirmsratherthanconsumers.TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexEconomistsandpolicymakersmonitorboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising.Therearetwoimportantdifferencesbetweentheindexesthatcancausethemtodiverge.TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexTheGDPdeflatorreflectsthepricesofallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically,whereas...…theconsumerpriceindexreflectsthepricesofallgoodsandservicesboughtbyconsumers.TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoTheGDPDeflatorversustheConsumerPriceIndexTheconsumerpriceindexcomparesthepriceofafixedbasketofgoodsandservicestothepriceofthebasketinthebaseyear(onlyoccasionallydoestheBLSchangethebasket)...…whereastheGDPdeflatorcomparesthepriceofcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservicestothepriceofthesamegoodsandservicesinthebaseyear.TheGDPDeflatorversustheCoFigure2TwoMeasuresofInflation1965PercentperYear15CPIGDPdeflator105019701975198019851990200019952005Figure2TwoMeasuresofInflaCORRECTINGECONOMICVARIABLESFORTHEEFFECTSOFINFLATIONPriceindexesareusedtocorrectfortheeffectsofinflationwhencomparingdollarfiguresfromdifferenttimes.CORRECTINGECONOMICVARIABLESDollarFiguresfromDifferentTimesDothefollowingtoconvertdollarvaluesfromyearTintotoday’sdollars:Amountintoday’sdollarsAmountinyearT’sdollarsPriceleveltodayPricelevelinyearT=DollarFiguresfromDifferentDollarFiguresfromDifferentTimesDothefollowingtoconvert(inflate)BabeRuth’swagesin1931todollarsin2005:SalarySalaryPricelevelin2005Pricelevelin193120051931===$80,.$0001951521,026,316DollarFiguresfromDifferentIndexationWhensomedollaramountisautomaticallycorrectedforinflationbylaworcontract,theamountissaidtobeindexedforinflation.IndexationWhensomedollaramoTable2TheMostPopularMoviesofAllTimes,InflationAdjustedTable2TheMostPopularMovieRealandNominalInterestRatesInterestrepresentsapaymentinthefutureforatransferofmoneyinthepast.RealandNominalInterestRateRealandNominalInterestRatesThenominalinterestrateistheinterestrateusuallyreportedandnotcorrectedfo