科技硬件：CES的10大发现

1、GlobalResearch14 January2019UBS Global I/OEquitiesTech Hardware/Displays/SemisEquitiesTechnology Hardware & EquipmentGlobal10 key findings from CES 19Technology Hardware & EquipmentGlobalSober tone at CES regarding 2019 outlook1/US/ChinarelationshipswereclearlyattheforefrontofexecutivesmindsatCES19,

2、 with fewer attendees from China, and overall attendance slightly down YoY. 2/ Smartphones demand is weak across the board, and the recent procurement adjustments for the iPhone XR leads to some uncertainty regarding the 2H19 refresh mix (our assumption for now is 2 OLED models vs. 1 LCD iPhone). 3/

3、 PCs remain affectedbyIntelCPUshortagesinto1H19,whilstAMDsRyzenisgainingmomentum with OEMs. 4/ DRAM upstream and dowmstream inventories have increased and production cuts are not considered (unsurprisingly to us). We remain skeptical about the probability of a 2H19 memory recovery (we forecast prici

4、ng to trough only by 1H20).AI everywhere, OLED still the more likely way of the future for large displays5/AIspervasivenessinconsumerelectronicsandsmartappliancescontinuestorapidly progessusingbothmachinelearninganddeeplearningtoimproveuserexperience,as wellasmakingAIassistantsmoreandmoreubiquitous.

5、6/LGsrollableOLEDTVwas theShowstopper,andwecontinuetoexpectSamsungtoeventuallyjointheOLEDTV ranks with Quantum Dot Blue OLED technology. 7/ Micro LED and Mini LED still get airspace,butweremainoftheviewtheyarelikelytobenichetechnologies.Foldable products, wireless VR & smarter automotive concepts8/

6、Foldable mobile devices continue to attract interest, with Samsung taunting once againitscominginfoldingdevice(likelylaunchedFeb20th;productionweest.starting March)andRoyoleshowcasingafolding-outdevice.9/VRcouldbegettingclosertoa re-acceleration as more potent wireless headsets (for which computing

7、is done in the headset itself) are being brought to the market (Oculus and HTC both using cm). / Ave mart car cig anms vng and mty remainedkeyfocuswhilstsomenewEVannouncementscamethrough.We remain selective on Semis, smartphones supply chain &OLEDSee Page 2 for a complete list of our Most and Least

8、Preferred stocks.Nicolas Gaudois HYPERLINK mailto:nicolas.gaudois +852-29715681TimothyArcuri HYPERLINK mailto:timothy.arcuri +1-415-3525676Taewoo Lee HYPERLINK mailto:taewoo.lee +852-29716873PradeepRamani AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:pradeep.ramani +1-415-3525517Shingo Hirata, CFA HYPERLINK mai

9、lto:shingo.hirata +81-3-52086224Bill HYPERLINK mailto:bill.lu +852-29718360Kenji Yasui HYPERLINK mailto:kenji.yasui +81-3-52086211EricJ.Sheridan HYPERLINK mailto:eric.sheridan +1-212-7139310JohnRoy,Ph.D. HYPERLINK mailto:john.roy +1-212-7139440David Mulholland,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:david.mulholland +

10、44-20-75684069Sunny Lin HYPERLINK mailto:sunny.lin +886-2-87227346AliceChen HYPERLINK mailto:alice.chen +886-2-87227343 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesAsiaLimited. ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGIN ONPAGE17. UBSdoesandseekstodob

11、usinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Figure 1: Most and least

12、 preferred listCompanyTickerRatingPricePT19E PE20E PE19E PB20E PB19E EV/rev20E EV/revMost preferredAlphabetGOOG.OBuyUS$ 1,057US$ 1,40023.721.43.492.914.954.38AppleAAPL.OBuyUS$ 152US$ 18012.792.292.20ASMLASML.ASBuy14120018.415.24.634.224.984.35BroadcomAVGO.OBuyUS$ 251US$ 27510.58.8361.82361.195.474.8

13、4Catcher2474.TWBuyNT$ 212NT$ 450.841.461.16Hitachi6501.TBuy 3,346 6,25070.690.360.30HP IncHPQ.NBuyUS$ 21US$ 289.48.851.3818.070.560.55InfineonIFXGn.DEBuy182402.632.502.34KLA TencorKLAC.OBuyUS$ 94US$ 1369.993.253.25LG Innotek011070.KSBuyWon 88,800Won 150,0007.05.70.870.760.360.33Luxshare Precision002

14、475.SZBuyRmb 15Rmb 2116.613.33.262.661.431.20MarvellMRVL.OBuyUS$ 17US$ 2501.302.772.46MediaTek2454.TWBuyNT$ 228NT$ 35513.010.720.72Samsung SDI006400.KSBuyWon 231,000Won 315,00012.511.01.121.020.680.59Sunny Optical2382.HKBuyRmb 69Rmb 12814.311.24.863.651.531.21TDK6762.TBuy 7,500 14,40060.870.670.59TS

15、MC2330.TWBuyNT$ 221NT$ 28513.911.33.022.714.323.51Wonik IPS240810.KQBuyWon 18,600Won 37,00091.200.820.46Least preferedBYDE0285.hkSellRmb 10Rmb 810.911.11.010.930.290.26FTC2354.TWSellNT$ 58NT$ 6080.56-0.18-0.22GWC6488.TWONeutralNT$ 288NT$ 29042.391.551.52Hirose Electric6806.TSell 11,060 10,50022.721.

16、41.331.291.411.36Hon Hai2317.TWNeutralNT$ 69NT$ 730.780.100.10Innolux3481.TWSellNT$ 10NT$ 8-6.0602.90.430.430.300.32Realtek2379.TWSellNT$ 147NT$ 10222.019.83.433.271.010.91Sharp6753.TSell 1,209 90021.960.370.36SK Hynix00660. KSNeutralWon 65,100Won 70,00050.751.311.23SMIC0981. HKNeutral (CBE)US$ 7US$

17、 8-31.9-42.40.630.641.721.63Texas InstrumentsTXN.OSellUS$ 99US$ 9039.106.586.24Wistron3231.TWSellNT$ 19NT$ 1612.310.10.830.770.070.06ZDT4958.TWSellNT$ 75NT$ 5911.312.31.061.040.500.51Source: UBS estimates, priced as of 11 Jan 2019Key segment takeawaysSemiconductorsMemoryWe hosted company meetings at

18、 CES and conducted channel checks same time.Inlinewithourrecentsectorupdate HYPERLINK /shared/d2fT6MbxOJ5q (MemorySemisMonthlyJan19:Roughend HYPERLINK /shared/d2fT6MbxOJ5q of 2018, tougher start of 2019), the demand envrironment entering 1H19 appears to be challenging across the board (with perhaps

19、the exception of flash enterprise storage). Smartphones memory procurement is much weaker than expected both for Apple but also for Chinese smartphone OEMs. Hyperscale customers (especially US) drastically cut procurement late 4Q18, and demand is forecasted to remain weak in 1H19. The hope of a 2H19

20、 recovery forHyperscale remains, but is in opur view a low-probability event. We are concerned abouttwo keyfactors:(1)wedonotseethereleaseofIntelsCascadeLakeasakeydriverfor computing demand, ie we have not seen evidence of pent-up demand in the Hyperscale market; (2) we estimate that the current slo

21、wdown in hyperscale procurement is not just a reflection of excess DRAM inventories, but also excess compute spending as well as softwareoptimisation.On the supply side, for DRAM, we see no evidence of production cuts nor any planning for them to occur; this comes from DRAM makers still generating s

22、ignificant FCF. Microns 15% CY19E bit shipment growth target stems, rather, from managing the transition to 1Y nm, ie the pace of it, whilst the timing of 1Y nm production starting remains unchanged. As for Samsung, as we indicated before HYPERLINK /shared/d2j35dOVElg3d (Samsung: Slight upside to 19

23、E memory bit growth?), it is acceleratingits transition to 1Y nm as it already rolled out Mobile devices, and is rapidly going through customers qualification for servers, with yields already in good shape. Inventories already went up upstream, we estimate c. 5 weeks for Samsung (finished dies), and

24、 will likely be maintained in 1Q19. Microns total inventories coldgoupto130-140days.ThiswilladdtosupplyrisksoncedownstreamDRAM inventories(weestimate8weeksforPCs,8-10formobileand8-12weeksforUS hyperscalers) are digested.InNANDflash,wealsoreiterateourviewthatSamsungisacceleratingitstransition to 92L

25、due to its perceived cost advantage vs peers and good production yields, witn the aim to gain market share. As for DRAM, Samsung does not plan to add wafer capacity in NAND in 2019.Non-memorySemiscompaniesareallreflectingremarkablylowvisibilitybeyondthatprovidedby product lead times and even then, t

26、here is a very high degree of uncertainty ahead of Chinese New Year. Several major companies are citing deferrals from Chinese customers in particular from CQ1 to CQ2, making CQ1 slightly sub- seasonal on the whole.Company takeaways:Nvidia (Neutral): Despite our customer checks that still suggest si

27、gnificant inventory levels, NVDA remains confident that it is about halfway through the 1- 2Q channel inventory digestion for mid-range Pascal gaming cards. The introduction of RTX 2060 brings Turing into the mainstream segments of themarket (1/3 of the installed based is 960/970/1060) and brings Tu

28、ring to notebooks as well. The company feels that pricing, at $349, is at enough of a premium to Pascal, that sell-through/inventory clear-out should not be impacted. Whiletherewaslittlenewondatacenter,demandremainsstrongashyperscaler system optimization efforts have been largely focused on storage

29、rather than compute, the implication being that NVDA will continue to see strong growth vectors even as hyperscaler capex growth slows. On the inference side (we estimate $150-200MM/yr run-rate), most of the growth to date has come from newworkloadswithGPUdisplacementofCPUatenterprisesstillverysmall

30、andon the come.AMD (Neutral): In addition to NVDA launching RTX 2060 pushing its new Turing architecture to the mid-tier of the market w/$349 ASP AMD launched RadeonVII,theindusrysfirst7nmGPU.AMDalsopreviewed3rd genRyzen,which is pushing its unique chiplet architecture into desktop. While there was

31、no officialEPYC2(Rome)launch,AMDremainson-tracktoshipRomeinmid-2019. We noted an increase in AMD Ryzen penetration in 2019 laptop line ups, with most notably Lenovo offering AMD in all but two of its 2019 models (including Thinkpad), vs only 2 in 2018.Marvell (Buy): The company continues to highligh

32、t its significant leverage to 5G and we ran through some simple math. Based on 1.2-1.3MM/yr basestation shipments and $3000 blended content (our number, not MRVLs), this implies$350-400MM/yr incremental opportunity (10% incremental to MRVL corporate revs run-rate in C2020 based on our model) assumin

33、g only Samsungs current 10% share. If the ramp timing is similar to 4G, this would take 4yrs to fully ramp to mature penetration, but MRVL expects revenue to start later this year and of course Samsung is also stating 15-20% share targets in 5G (it did not have a full solution during the 4G buildout

34、 in Korea). This is also to say nothing about the potentialforMRVLtowinoneoftheEuropeanOEMsasthesecompaniesinternal ASICeffortscomeunderpressureina5Gworld.RelativetoitsARMserverefforts with Thunder X2 (just launched) and X3 (in development), it continues to emphasize a gradual ramp, though recent an

35、nouncements from AMZN are supportiveoftheecosystemandMRVLhasregardlessmadethisallupsidetoits financial model. Storage remains challenging, though the company offered no specific updates in our meeting.Intel(Buy)Mobileye:TheMobileyepresentationwaswellattended.Mobileye indicated that for 2018 it had 2

36、8 new design wins, 20 program launches with OEMsandtier1s,7newvehiclemodelslaunchedwithEyeQ4with56vehicle models with advanced functionalities being launched world-wide.12.4MM EyeQ units(+42%Y/Y)wereshippedin2018.EyeQ5wassampledinDec2018,with design wins at 4 OEMS for volumes above 8MM units. Series

37、 production is expected to commence in March2021.Mobileye also highlighted its portfolio based approach to mobility spanning all the way from ADAS to AV. ADAS solutions include OpenEyeQ5 Silicon based solution, Closed EyeQ5 (Silicon+Software) and Surround Vision. Autonomous platformsspanAVseries(Plu

38、gandDrivesolutions)andextendouttoMobilityasa Serviceplatform.WhileMobileyeviewsAutonomousvehiclesandADASasdistinct efforts within the company it did elaborate on synergies between the two, with ADAS efforts helping with faster component qualification for AV and AV efforts helping with the transition

39、 of advanced technologies intoADAS.Wethinktherearelimitstoextendingapurelycamerabasedapproachtobeyond L2+ and Mobileye clarified its strategy in this regard. Mobileyes presentation emphasized that fully autonomous vehicles could potentially incorporate redundancy i.e a camera based solution in addit

40、ion to a Lidar and Radar based solutions. Mobileye indicated that it is working on an integrated solution that incorporates thisredundancy.Mobileye is also making progress on REM mapping with the mapping of Japan highways now complete. It is also addressing fundamental autonomous driving issues such

41、 as Driving Policy Logic by building partnerships around the RSS standard. Mobileye, Volkswagen and Champion Motors announced a pilot to commercialize MaaS in 2022.UBS also hosted a series of meetings with auto suppliers/supply chain. Automotivesalesremainsoftbutoverallmostsuppliersareexpectingthegl

42、obal market to remain about flat with key suppliers like ON suggesting content will continue to grow 20% CAGR.TVs and DisplaysNear term demand remains challengingWemetwithpanelmakersaswellasTVOEMs,withthegeneralfeedbackthatthe large panel LCD market will likeky remain oversupplied throughout 2019. T

43、V demandstartsfromarelativelyhighbasecominginto2019.Twofactorshowever will be worth watching on the supply side: (1) Samsungs conversion of 100k sheets per month gen 8.5 LCD capacity to QD Blue OLED HYPERLINK /shared/d2bt8i6eVUd5 (Global I/O: QD Blue HYPERLINK /shared/d2bt8i6eVUd5 OLED Samsung dippi

44、ng into the deep Blue), which we believe will start in earnest;(2)Whetherspecificsegmentswillseepricingfallingbelowcashcostsor not (which could lead to production cuts). On the flipside, LGD does not plan to shut down or convert LCD capacity to OLED in2019.OLED TVs continue to gain traction, 8K roll

45、s outLGD still the sole supplier of OLED TV panels for now confirmed its target of 4mil OLED TV panel shipments in 2019, coming after 2.85mil in 2018. It also forecasts 7mil in 2020 and 10mil in 2021. It plans to achieve this by reaching60k spm (gen 8.5) capacity by early 2020 in its new China fab,

46、and then ramping this up to 90k spm by end 2020. It will then have the option to either convert capacity from gen 8.5 LCD, and/or ramp up gen 10.5 OLED capacity (for which is is preparing backplane capacityalready).On the products side, the Showstopper was without a doubt LG Signature OLED TV R, an

47、OLED TV with a rollable screen. The product makes use of the rollable OLED display technology showcased by LG Display at CES 2018, and supports three different viewing options: 1) full view where the screen is fully rolled out forviewing,2)lineviewwherethescreenisonlypartiallyrolledout,and3)zero vie

48、w where the screen is fully rolled in and completely hidden. Unsurprisingly, the price tag is likely to be steep (US$10k), and practical limitations are also present (weight c. 80kgs) but this could be the first high end set of a new trend in TVs.Figure 2: LG Signature OLED TVR(1)Figure 3: LG Signat

49、ure OLED TV R(2)Source:UBSSource: UBSAside from this, we saw initial 8K OLED TV announcements (LGE), and new 4K modelsfromPanasonicandSony,aswellassomeimpressiveOLEDTVdesigns from Skyworth.Crystal Sound technology making use of the OLED display as a speakers membranealsocontinuestoattractinterestand

50、isusedbySonyandSkyworth.At thecomponentlevel,TDKshowcasedPiezoListen,anultrathinhighpowerpiezo actuator (exiter) for TV displays and tablets, which started production last November.WebelievetheincumbentsofarwasKyocera(usedinSonyTVs).Nidec was also showcasing a sound exiter technology using haptic (I

51、mmersion technology).As for LCD TVs, several OEMs also announced 8K TVs, including Samsung and Sony offering 98-inch 8K sets.Figure 4: LG Z9 8KOLEDTVFigure 5: Sony A9G 4K OLEDTVSource:UBSSource: UBSFigure 6: Skyworth Great WaterfallOLEDTVFigure 7: Samsung 8KQLEDSource:UBSSource: UBSNext generation d

52、isplays technologies: QD OLED, Micro LED and Mini LEDWe continue to see evidence of Samsung preparing a 25-30k wpm (gen 8.5) line for Quantum Dot Blue OLED production HYPERLINK /shared/d2bt8i6eVUd5 (Global I/O: QD Blue OLED Samsung HYPERLINK /shared/d2bt8i6eVUd5 dipping into the deep Blue). Challeng

53、es inimplementing the techonology are material(oxidebackplane,choiceofBlueemitter,useofinkjetprintingdeposition), butwebelievemanagementhasstrongincentivesforQDOLEDtobedelivered.SamsungshowcasedanotherWallMicroLEDdisplay,219-inchmoduledisplay,as wellasa75-inchMicroLEDconcept.ThesizeoftheLEDchipsrema

54、insimilarto lastyearsmodelforTheWall,butsmallerforthe75-inch.Regardless,westillview QDOLEDasamorelikelyroadmapoutcomeforSamsungsfuturelargepanels& TV sets offering.Figure 8: Samsung The Wall Micro LED displayFigure 9: Asus ProArt PA32UCX Mini LEDbacklightingmonitorSource:UBSSource:UBSMini LED also c

55、ontinues to gather interest with Asus launching in 2H19 the first MiniLEDbacklightprofessionalmonitor(ProArtPA32UCX).Asseenbelowthough, thedisplaysethasstrongperformanceforprofessionaluse,butisrelativelythick;MiniLEDpresentsatradeoffbetweenhavingasmallernumberofLEDs(increasing optical distance but i

56、ncreasing thickness) and a larger count (increasing power dissipationandcosts).MiniLEDbacklightisalsousedinTVs(TCL,Hisense,Konka) to locally control backlighting and improvecontrast.AI more and more pervasive in TVs, Apples strategy evolvesAI is used for multiple functionalities in coming TV sets. F

57、or picture quality, AI machine learning can be used for upscaling to 8K, or providing tones optimised throughambientrecognition(iepicturetoneadjustsaccordingtooutsidelightand conditions). Deep learning can help optimising streaming (to enable 8K real-time transmission over existing networks) or sele

58、cting the best content sourcequality. Foraudio,deeplearningcanrecogniseaudiomixingscenebyscene(ieemphasing, for instance, a referees comment in a football match, then the crowds noise etc) as well as adjusting the sound to various roomenvironment.In addition, AI Assistants are now ubiquitous in TVs.

59、 OEMs tend to support multiple AI assistants and offer them in specific geographies depending upon regionalpreferences.IntheWesternworld,OEMsincreasinglyofferbothGoogle AssistantandAmazonAlexa,ontopofproprietaryengines(BixbyforSamsung).In practicethough,subtleprioritisationscanoccur.Asanexample,LGTV

60、setsinthe USactivatesGoogleAssistantthroughthemicbuttonontheremotecontrol,with Alexa only selected if pressing the Amazon Primebutton.Apples interaction with the TV OEMs ecosystems seems to also be evolving. SamsungannouncedthatitwillembediTunesinitsTyzenOSforTVs.Whilstthis offers Apple another chan