新加坡股票策略：一线希望

1、Singapore Equity StrategyA Ray Of HopeAsia Pacific Equity Research02 December 2019We reiterate our positive view on Singapore equities. Our year end-2020 target MSCI Singapore/STI index is 425/3,700, implying 15% potential upside. Singapores economy and exposure to regional trade makes it to revisio

2、ns to regional growth expectations. We see global growth and domestic policy support de-risking the investment case and macroeconomic momentum turning positive. Singapore equities underperformed APxJ / DM benchmark and fund managers are underweight on the same. We upgraded Singapore to OW Neutral vi

3、a adding weight in Developers on 25 November. We are overweight on banks, developers, industrial REITs & selective industrial names. Note, we upgraded banks to overweight on 13 October driven by inexpensive valuations, exposure to regional trade/Greater China and attractive yields. We are underweigh

4、t communication services & gaming. Our top ten picks are DBS, UOB, CaptiLand Ltd, AREIT, MINT, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Sea Ltd, Engineering, Thai Beverage and WilmarInternational.A value play: Singapore is the only ASEAN country that is trading inexpensively at 12.9x forward and 0.5 standard devia

5、tion below its historical average. current PE translates to EY/BY ratio of 4.5x above its long term average. Our Asia and quantitative strategist is currently positive on higher-beta and value exposure with the business monitor for Asia moving into positive territory for the first time in 18 months.

6、 truce on trade war and improving fundamental indicators could support valuation recovery and reduce the risk premium. We expect Singapores P/E to re-rate by 10% in2020.Worst is us: J.P. Morgans team forecast stabilization Singapore GDP growth in 4Q19 and recovery in 2020 (1.1%). A more distinct upt

7、urn in sentiment and may lead to further upside to growth estimates. We are forecasting 5% 2020F EPS growth (vs 4% consensus), a modest acceleration this year. The situation in HKSAR will continue to weigh on companies with significant exposure to Hong Kong. Note, 22% total revenue companies in the

8、is from Greater China. We the strongest EPS growth to come real estate, plantations and industrials. If global growth recovers, rates andthecreditoutlookshouldimprove,drivingpositiveearningsrevisionsforbanks.Policy support optionality: MAS eased monetary policy with a expansionary fiscal stance by t

9、he government to support growth. US-China dtente could improve sentiment and bolster capex, removing a headwind external demand. That said, policy support optionality to growth is available should Singapores output remain below potential. These may include targeted subsidies to preserve employment,

10、transfers to lower income households, tax breaks & subsidies to support businesses and bringing forward smaller infraprojects.Light investor positioning: Singapores equity market has witnessed net outflows of US$580 million year to date, and cumulative net outflows of US$1.5 billion since June 2018.

11、 EAFE and AxJ fund managers are underweight on Singapore equities 22bps and 1%,respectively.Risks to our view: Geopolitical risk continues to be a market driver. At the global level, US elections and change in the US political atmosphere could affect US- China trade talks. If the social unrest in HK

12、SAR further intensifies. A large disorderly property price correction impactinghouseholds.Singapore Equity Strategy Rajiv Batra AC(65) 6882-8151 HYPERLINK mailto:rajiv.j.batra rajiv.j.batraBloomberg JPMA BATRA J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedHead of ASEAN Research Ajay Mirchandani(65

13、) 6882-2419 HYPERLINK mailto:ajay.mirchandani ajay.mirchandaniJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedSingapore Equity Research Harsh Wardhan Modi(65) 6882-2450 HYPERLINK mailto:harsh.w.modi harsh.w.modiJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited/ J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) L

14、imitedRanjan Sharma, CFA(65) 6882-1303 HYPERLINK mailto:ranjan.x.sharma ranjan.x.sharmaJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedMervin Song, CFA(65) 6882-7829 HYPERLINK mailto:mervin.song mervin.songJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedTerence M Khi(65) 6882-1518 HYPERLINK mailto:t

15、erence.ml.khi terence.ml.khiJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedUtkarsh Mehrotra(65) 6882-1625 HYPERLINK mailto:utkarsh.mehrotra utkarsh.mehrotraJ.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private LimitedAnurag Rajat, CFA(65) 6882 2407 HYPERLINK mailto:anurag.rajat anurag.rajatJ.P. Morgan Securitie

16、s Singapore Private Limited/ J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) LimitedSee page 42 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatmay a of the

17、of as a HYPERLINK / Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Key callsanddrivers3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Macro momentumturning positive4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Earnings growthpick up5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Value play A good fit fromstyleperspective8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 De-riskingfactors developi

18、ng9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Underweight positioning byfundmanagers10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Allocation of money11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Sectors Outlook12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Banks12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Developers14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 REITs17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 CommunicationServices2

19、0 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 OffshoreandMarine21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 ConsumerStaples23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Gaming25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Economic data to watch26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Factor performances28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Appendix29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Singapore sector performa

20、nceandvaluations29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Singapore 3Q19earningstracker30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Earnings revision trend 2019&202031 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 ForwardP/E33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Price to bookversusROE35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 DividendYield37Key calls and driversBase CaseWe set our

21、 year end-2020 MSCI/STI index targets at 425/3,700, implying 15% potential upside. This is based on a 2020F EPS growth forecast of 5%, coupled with an implied target multiple of 14x towards one-year-forward EPS. We believe that Singapore will see a re-rating of multiple by 10% due to reduction in ri

22、sk premium on the back of the tentative trade war truce and improving fundamental indicatorsKey driversMacro momentum turning positive (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 4)High beta play with good growth pick up (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 5)Value play A good fit from style perspective in current scenari

23、o (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 8)De-risking factors developing (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 9)Light investor positioning (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 10)Our key asset allocation calls (page HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 11)Overweight Banks, developers, industrialReitsNeutral Consumer staples, industrials,I

24、TUnderweight Gaming, office Reits, communicationsservicesBull CaseOur Bull case scenario is for MSCI/STI to reach 450/3,900 by end-2020, implying 22% upside from the current level. This is based on an 8% EPS growth assumption (vs. 5% growth in base case), coupled with a target multiple of 14.8x (bas

25、ed on +0.8 SD above 15-yr average) as compared to 14x in the base case. Key assumptions are:US-China produce a lasting truce in alldisputesGlobal GDP growth above trend while inflationdoes not threaten the business cycle. bond stabilize at higherlevels.Surge in property demand which leads to positiv

26、e earnings for developers, and feeds through by a wealth effect to domesticdemand.Bear CaseOur Bear case scenario is for MSCI/STI to reach 340/3,000 by end-2020, implying -8% downside from the current level. This is based on a -1% EPS growth assumption, coupled with a target multiple of 12.0 x (base

27、d on -1.0 SD below 15-yr average) as compared to 14x in base case. Key assumptions are:Geopolitical risk continues to be a market driver. At the global level, US election and a change in the political atmosphere could affect US-China trade talks and the situation inTighter or more volatile global fi

28、nancial conditions could lead to stress on leveraged firms and householdsA large and disorderly property price correction and feeds through adverse wealth effects onhouseholdsKey Potential CatalystsGlobal capex, sentiment indicators and capitalflowsAccommodative/easing policy and generalelectionsSte

29、ady clearance of land bank over2020Table 1: Top picks and least preferredTickersNameRecoPriceTop PicksCAPL SPCapitaLand LtdOW3.68AREIT SPAscendas Real Estate InvestmenOW2.98MINT SPMapletree Industrial TrustOW2.51UOB SPUnited Overseas Bank LtdN25.82DBS SPDBS Group Holdings LtdN25.25SE USSea LtdOW37.0

30、4YZJSGD SPYangzijiang Shipbuilding HoldiOW1.03STE SPSingapore Technologies EngineeN4.13THBEV SPThai Beverage PCLOW0.89WIL SPWilmar International LtdOW4.09LeastPreferredGENS SPGenting Singapore LtdUW0.925HPHT SPHutchison Port Holdings TrustUW0.158CCT SPCapitaLandCommercialTrustUW2.01 Source: J.P. Mor

31、gan, Bloomberg. Priced as of close on 29 Nov 2019.Macro momentum turning positiveRecent news from manufacturers has been encouraging as our global PMI recorded a third consecutive rise in October. While the level of the output index continues to point to weak 1% ar growth, survey details have been m

32、ore upbeat. The combination of rising new orders and a falling pace of stock-building is common at inflection points.J.P. Economics teams baseline scenario assumes the US and China will agree on a phase one deal that prevents tariffs from moving higher next year, while China will significantly incre

33、ase US agricultural imports. The US-China trade truce and accompanying lift in global business sentiment and capex spending should improve EM growth prospects broadly. Manufacturing exporters, especially EM Asia economies tied to the China supply chain, are likely to benefit the most from this lift.

34、 Singapores open economy and exposure to regional trade make them sensitive to revisions to regional growth expectations. Net exports account for 25% of Singaporeeconomy.Figure 2: Labour market will improve as growth pick upReal GDP (%oya)Unemployment rate (%, RHS Inverse)Real GDP (%oya)Unemployment

35、 rate (%, RHS Inverse)6.05.04.03.02.01.00.01314151617181920Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan EconomicsFigure 3: Global manufacturing PMI orders to inventories ratio and manufacturing IPOn a sequential basis, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose a solid 19.8%3m/3m, saar in October. Singapores October in

36、dustrial production came in stronger than expected, at 4.0% oya (J.P. Morgan: -6.2%oya and consensus: 0.6% oya). In September, the Department of Statistics (DOS) Singapore posted seasonally adjusted total retail value to pick up 1.9% m/m. October home sales (-27% MoM, +85% YoY) of 928 units slowed o

37、n the back of fewer significant new launches and firming prices (+1.3% QoQ). While 10M19 YTD volumes of 8,397 units are expected to exceed our forecast of 9,500 units in 2019.J.P. Morgan forecast for Singapore GDP growth in 2019 is 0.5% y/y, and 2020 is 1.1% y/y. Singapores Ministry of Industry and

38、Trade (MTI) expects growth to be in 0.5-1% range for 2019 and 0.5-2.5% range in 2020.Figure 1: NODX lead indicator for STI indexSource: J.P. Morgan EconomicsFigure 4: Sensitivity of Singapore growth to global capex highest in EM Asia (Coefficient, 2010-2018)Source: J.P. Morgan Economics NODX (%oya,3

39、mma)STI Rebased(RHS)151050-10-15-20Jan-15Oct-15Jul-16Apr-17Jan-18Oct-18Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan9590858075Figure 5: Pick up in Singapore IP & PMIIP(%oya)IP(%oya) PMI Electronic(RHS)255320151050-549-10-15Jan-15Oct-15Jul-16Apr-17Jan-18Oct-18Jul-19Source: J.P. Morgan EconomicsEarnings growth pick

40、upA more distinct upturn in sentiment and capex may lead to further upside to earnings growth estimates. From aFigure 6: STI revenue contribution in 2018Europe, 4% Rest of thetop-down perspective, J.P. Morgans economic team forecasts stabilization in Singapore GDP growth in 4Q19 and recovery in 2020

41、 (1.1%). Fiscal easing is likely to continue to support growth, with focus on employment and infrastructure, which should drive earnings in some of the cyclical sectors. Bottoming out of the inventory cycle and potential improvement on PMI is positive to upstream industries like industrial and tech

42、companies. The situation in HKSAR will continue weigh on the companies with significant exposure to Hong Kong.Overall we are forecasting 5% 2020F EPS growth (vsAustralasia, 3%North America, 1%Other Asia, 10%Greater China, 22%Malaysia, 1%world, 7%Indonesia, 1%Singapore, 16%ASEAN-wide, 32%Thailand, 3%

43、4% consensus), a modest acceleration from this year. We expect the strongest EPS growth driver to come from developers, plantations and industrials. If global growth recovers, rates and credit outlook should improve, this will drive positive earnings revisions for banks. Note, consensus and J.P. Mor

44、gan banks team are forecasting negative earnings growth for 2020.Singapore plays the role of a financial and business hub in the Southeast Asia region, where the majority of companies that are incorporated and listed in this country have their operations expanded beyond the Singapore border. This mu

45、lti-geography characteristic of Singapore has been constantly evolving, which is influenced by the rise of regional economies.As HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Figure 6 shows, the lions share of company revenues in the STI are from other nations around the world, most notably ASEAN (32%) and Greater China (

46、22%).Compared to 5 years ago, the revenue stream of STI has shifted towards faster-growing economies in the region while developed markets such as North America have their share shrank to a minority level (1% in 2018 compared to 17% in 2013). The STI portfolio now generates 85% of its revenue from A

47、sia Pacific nations and 15% from the rest of the world.Sector-wise, Industrials continue to be the major revenue-generator of Singapore (42%), followed by Consumer Staples (26%) and Financials (13%). In thelast 5 the revenue share of Industrials has declined, which transferred to the rest of the sec

48、tors. Contributions of Financial companies in the STI almost doubled since 2013. In terms of market capitalization, almost half of the STI is made up of Banks (28.8%, Table 1) and Industrial Conglomerates(20.4%).Source: Bloomberg, Company data, J.P. Morgan estimatesFigure 7: STI Index revenue compos

49、ition by GICS Sector 2013 (inside ring) and 2018 (outside ring)5%5%5%1%8%6%7%42%13%21%59%26%IndustrialsConsumerStaplesFinancialsConsumer Discretionary CommunicationServicesRealEstateInformation TechnologySource: BloombergTable 2: STI Revenue & Market cap by sub-industry (GICS) GICS SubIndustryDivers

50、ified BanksRevenue12.8%Mkt Cap28.8%Industrial Conglomerates33.0%20.4%Integrated Telecommunication S4.7%10.3%Diversified Real Estate Activities3.3%5.5%Agricultural Products19.1%4.8%Distillers & Vintners2.7%4.0%Real Estate Operating Companies1.0%3.1%Distributors7.0%2.7%Aerospace & Defense1.8%2.4%Casin

51、os & Gaming0.7%2.1%Airlines4.4%2.1%Food Retail4.3%2.0%Retail REITs0.2%1.8%Industrial REITs0.2%1.8%Financial Exchanges & Data0.2%1.5%Office REITs0.1%1.5%Construction Machinery & Heavy1.2%1.1%Airport Services0.5%1.1%Trucking1.0%1.1%Electronic Manufacturing Services0.9%0.9%Publishing0.3%0.7% Marine Por

52、ts&Services0.5%0.4%Source: BloombergFigure 8: Singapore annual EPS growth trend30.326.8 9.34.4 4.0 5.4(2.3)(2.1)(4.4)(10.3)(9.0)(12.7)30.025.020.015.010.05.00.0(5.0)(10.0)(15.0)Figure 10: EPS growth vs PMI PMI(RHS)EPS Growth53.052.051.050.049.048.025.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%06

53、07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Source: IBES, DataStream; J.P. Morgan.Figure 9: Singapore 2020E EPS growth contribution0.6%0.1%0.1%0.6%0.1%0.1%0.9%0.9%1.1%3.6%3%2%47.0101112131415161718Source: IBES, Datastream.Figure 11: EPS revision trend201920202019202035.033.031.0-15.0%1%29.00%Industr

54、ialsRealEstateTelecomsStaplesDiscretionaryMSCISingapoFeb-18Jun-18Oct-18Feb-19Jun-19Oct-19Source: MSCI,IBES, DataStream.Source: IBES,Datastream.Table 3: J.P. Morgan Map of Singapore, by Revenue ContributionSGD mn, 2018StocksASEANAsiaRest of the worldSingaporeThailandVietnamSingaporeThailandVietnamInd

55、onesiaMalaysiaASEAN (*)AREIT7910000010086000886CCT39400000000000394CAPL00113002,3982,16600005,602CT69800000000000698CIT2,20000000274003856004,223CD2,243070301910451910003,805DFI000006,27109,753000016,025DBS12,27600001,0494,638000018,493GENS2,539000000000002,539GGR0001,450001,2554,96501,33709,776HKL0

56、00007052,930000003,635HPHT0000001,983000001,983JCNC0000025,90300000025,903JM0000034,33719,373003,886058,002JS0000033,30112,6770069046,500KEP3,968000043680800005,962OCBC8,863001,2602,07102,06825300014,860SATS1,460000000274000931,828SCI4,638000002012,93102,81722911,689SIA00000006,3811,4081,3575656,612

57、16,323SGX84500000000000845SPH961000000000022983STE00000004,11307081,3976,698ST6,98700000009,131001,25417,372THBEV09,70300000000010,031UOB8,0541,42807561,61501,231000014,037UOL2,0010360461963016218042,349VMS6780000002,5950003,484WIL0000012,43831,1882,4431,0863,60109,93460,690YZJSGD0000007382,49409379

58、204,261Total59,59511,1311563,4653,735116,85881,79036,20312,32316,0262,88325,709369,875%16.1%3.0%0.0%0.9%1.0%31.6%22.1%9.8%3.3%4.3%0.8%7.0%Total(*) Company does not provide country-level breakdownSource: Bloomberg, Company Data, J.P. Morgan calculationsValue play A good fit from style perspectiveSing

59、apore is the only ASEAN country that is trading cheaply and below its historical average. Our Asia equity and quantitative strategist is currently positive on higher- beta and value exposure with the business cycle monitor for Asia moving into positive territory for the first time in 18 months. Note

60、, Singapore has the highest beta amongst ASEAN countries.MSCI Singapore is trading at a 12m forward P/E of 12.9x, and is currently 0.5 standard deviation below its long-term average. The current PE translates to an EY/BY ratio of 4.5x above its long term average.Tentative truce on the trade war and