美国产业预测：第会更加恶化

1、GlobalResearch26 November 2019Macro-to-Micro NowcastingAmericasUBSEvidenceLabinside:USIndustrialsNowcast Q4 Getting WorseAmericasNowcasting highlights Company viewEquity Strategys Macro-to-Micro (M2m) Revenue Nowcasting estimated significant weakeningoforganicgrowthinQ3. M2mcurrentestimatessuggestfu

2、rthersequential softening of organic growth in Q4. M2m suggests negative signals for 4 of the 35+ names(WCC,GWW,HON,AGCO,ITW),andpositivesignalforLEA.Nowcasting highlights End-Market viewQ4Y/Ygrowthcontinuestoweakenformanyregionalend-markets,albeitataslower pacethanQ3.Weakeningend-marketsincludeCons

3、tructionEquipment(NA,EU,SA), General Industrials (NA), Mining, Oil and Gas (NA), Commercial Vehicles (NA), ConstructionSupplies(NA),andAutomotiveProduction(NA).Improvingend-markets include Food Production (NA), Electronics (AP), Residential Construction (NA), and Paperboard Production (NA).Interpret

4、ing the Nowcasting signalsOurNowcastingestimatesinclude35+namesfromUSMachinery,Electricalequipment and Multi-Industry, Auto Suppliers, and Packaging. Names with positive (negative) signalshavepositive(negative)organicrevenuegrowthandrevenuesurprise,withat least one of them being above 0.75 (below -0

5、.75) standard error. These signals have efficacy in market positioning (see our backtesting note). M2m estimates are derived using big-data modeling technique and may differ from the views of the UBS analyst covering the name. To learn more about Nowcasting, see ourprimer.Q: What are the latest Nowc

6、asting views?Macro-to-Micro Nowcasting Signals PositiveNegativeUS EEMIWCC, GWW, HONUS MachineryAGCOUS Auto SuppliersLEAUS PackagingSource: UBS Research.Equity StrategyAjit Agrawal, PhDEquity Strategy HYPERLINK mailto:ajit.agrawal +1-212-7132053StevenFisher,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:steven.fisher +1-212-7

7、138634Damian Karas, CFA HYPERLINK mailto:damian.karas +1-212-7132267NicholasAmicucci AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:nicholas.amicucci +1-212-8825036 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC. UBSequityratingsreflecta12-monthtimeframeandarebasedon

8、hurdle ratesfortheforecastexcessreturn(priceappreciationanddividends)inrelationtothemarketreturnassumption(one-yearlocal market interest rate and an equity risk premium). The Macro-to-Micro Nowcasting estimates for a security are created by Equity Strategyusingquantitativeapproaches,andarebasedupond

9、ataconsideredrelevantinassessingacompanysperformance.The data is subject to a range of potential risks including data errors, human error, tracking error, and model degradation. UBS Researchscurrentratingascribedtothatsecuritymaybebaseduponabroaderrangeoffactorsincluding,withoutlimitation,the assess

10、mentoftheMacro-to-Micromodellingpresentedhere.Nothinginthisdocumentconstitutesarepresentationorstatement that the outcome estimated by the Macro-to-Micro modelling will either occur or occur in the manner described. The Macro-to- MicroNowcastingsecuritiesestimatesidentifiedmayreactdifferentlytotheou

11、tcomedescribed. ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONAND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 17. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Inve

12、stors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. UBS INVESTMENT ESEACH (US) DES NOT CVER SE F THE CPANES ENTNED N THIS NTE AND NVESTS SHULD NT EXPECT CONTINUING OR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM UBS RELATING TO THESE COMPANIES AND/OR SECURITIES DISCUSSED IN

13、 THIS NOTE. THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE INVESTMENT ADVICE OR AN OPEN OFFER, OR AN INVITATIONTOMAKEANOFFER,TOBUYORSELLANYSECURITIESORANYOPTIONS,FUTURESOROTHERDERIVATIVESRELATED TO SUCH SECURITIES.Q: What are the latest revenue Nowcasting estimates?Macro-to-MicroNowcasting(M2m)datasuggestsnegati

14、vesignalsforfouroftheUSindustrialsnames,andpositivesignal for one.M2m NowcastingM2m Organic RevenueM2m Organic AccelerationM2m OrganicHistoricalM2m GrowthConsensus RevenueM2m RevenueHistoricalRevenue GrowthSignalCompanySectorGrowth (Y/Y)(%)Acceleration ()*Hit Rate(a)(Y/Y)Growth (Y/Y)Surprise ()*Hit

15、Rate(a)(Y/Y)RatingPositiveLEAUS AutoSuppliers4.5% 2.0%1.064%-8.9%-9.5%0.276%-Not Rated-APTVUS AutoSuppliers6.2% 0.3%0.176%-1.4%-2.2%0.396%-2.8%Neutral-AVYUS Packaging2.4% 0.4%0.274%1.3%1.0%0.269%0.7%Buy-US EEMI1.5% 0.1%0.164%0.5%0.3%0.178%2.5%Not Rated-BWAUS AutoSuppliers4.2% -0.3%(0.2)67%1.3%-4.8%2

16、.279%-Not Rated-PCARUS Machinery6.6% -4.7%(0.8)62%6.6%-6.7%2.564%0.5%Neutral-PHUS EEMI-4.2% -0.9%(0.4)84%2.9%0.0%1.772%-Not Rated-CMIUS Machinery-4.1% -2.1%(0.7)69%-4.7%-13.0%2.072%-13.2%Sell-AMEUS EEMI2.7% -0.2%(0.1)83%7.2%5.4%1.084%-Not Rated-DANUS AutoSuppliers0.6% -0.5%(0.3)62%9.1%4.6%1.176%-Not

17、 Rated-GPKUS Packaging2.5% 0.7%0.866%1.7%2.3%(0.3)81%-Not Rated-EMRUS EEMI2.5% -0.1%(0.1)81%2.0%0.2%0.672%-Not Rated-SEEUS Packaging-0.4% -0.1%(0.1)79%3.7%3.4%0.363%-Not Rated-WSOUS EEMI2.5% -0.4%(0.2)69%9.7%8.8%0.372%-Not Rated-SONUS Packaging-2.1% 0.7%0.776%-2.8%-1.9%(0.6)88%-Not Rated-SWKUS EEMI2

18、.7% -0.2%(0.1)76%4.4%4.1%0.178%-Not Rated-IRUS EEMI5.8% -0.6%(0.5)74%7.6%6.9%0.472%-Not Rated-URIUS Machinery4.2% -1.2%(0.7)81%6.0%4.9%0.579%1.7%Neutral-MTORUS AutoSuppliers-9.6% -2.6%(0.6)74%-5.7%-6.7%0.281%-Not Rated-HUBBUS Machinery1.5% -1.1%(0.8)74%0.9%0.5%0.379%-Not Rated-TKRUS Machinery-4.7% -

19、1.8%(0.9)72%-1.9%-2.9%0.372%-Not Rated-CNHIUS Machinery-2.9% 0.3%0.175%-4.6%-1.9%(0.7)81%-0.9%Buy-OIUS Packaging-0.7% 0.0%0.066%-3.5%-0.2%(1.9)78%-Not Rated-MMMUS EEMI-1.0% 0.2%0.281%-1.2%2.4%(2.3)84%1.9%Neutral-ETNUS EEMI-1.1% -0.5%(0.4)74%-1.8%-1.4%(0.2)81%-Not Rated-CATUS Machinery-6.9% -2.3%(0.5

20、)79%-7.2%-6.5%(0.1)66%-6.3%Sell-FLSUS Machinery7.4% 0.0%(0.0)62%5.0%7.5%(0.5)76%11.6%Neutral-ITWUS Machinery-2.2% -0.7%(0.6)83%-3.7%-3.1%(0.6)84%-2.0%Neutral-RBCUS EEMI-10.8% -1.2%(0.6)63%-16.7%-16.2%(0.1)72%-Not Rated-KMTUS Machinery-11.7% -1.1%(0.4)86%-12.8%-10.9%(0.6)71%-9.1%BuyNegativeWCCUS EEMI

21、1.0% -2.3%(1.0)72%2.0%3.8%(0.6)79%-Not RatedNegativeUS EEMI1.4% -1.0%(0.8)72%1.7%3.6%(1.3)66%-Not RatedNegativeAGCOUS Machinery-3.9% -2.3%(1.1)78%-6.3%3.3%(2.3)79%1.7%NeutralNegativeHONUS EEMI3.8% -0.3%(0.2)79%-5.5%-1.3%(2.7)67%-Not RatedOrganic Y/Y Revenue AccelerationY/Y Revenue SurpriseUBS Analys

22、tNote:M2mOrganicAccelerationisthedifferencebetweenthecurrentquartersY/Yorganicrevenuegrowthestimateandthereportedorganicrevenuegrowthfrom previousquarterapositive(negative)numberindicatesbetter(worse)Y/Yorganicrevenuegrowth.Consensuspresentedaimstoexcludefinancialservicesoperations; Positive(negativ

23、e)signalswithnamesingreen(red)arederivedfromacombinationoforganicrevenueaccelerationandrevenuesurpriseestimates(ifavailable),with bothestimatesinthesamedirection,andatleastoneofthemabove(below)thethresholdofplus(minus)0.75standarddeviation.Source:Bloomberg,Factset,UBS estimates,UBSEvidenceLab;(a)His

24、toricalhitrateismeasuredfromthein-samplestatisticsforrightsideoforganicaccelerationandrevenuesurprisevs.consensus.Organic Y/Y Revenue AccelerationY/Y Revenue SurpriseUBS AnalystQ: How did M2m Estimates perform for Q3?M2mNowcastingestimatesforQ3(seefinalQ3note)pointedtogenerallynegativesignalsforEEMI

25、andMachinerynames, with limited positive signals. Our hit rate for direction of organic revenue acceleration came in at 80% across all names, higherthanhistoricalaverages,whiletherevenuesurprisehitratecameinat57%,lowerthanhistoricalaverages.Organic Y/Y RevenueAccelerationY/Y Revenue SurpriseM2mSigna

26、lCompanySectorOrganic Acceleration (%)Organic Acceleration ()*Directionally AccurateIn-Sample Hit RateRevenue Growth (Y/Y)Consensus RevenueGrowth (Y/Y)Revenue Surprise ()*Directionally AccurateIn-Sample Hit RatePositiveSONUS PackagingM2m1.0%1.176%1.7%1.4%0.288%Actual-0.1%(0.1)-0.8%(1.4)-GPKUS Packag

27、ingM2m0.3%0.366%3.5%2.5%0.581%Actual1.4%1.53.3%0.4-BWAUS Auto SuppliersM2m0.8%0.567%-3.2%-3.4%0.179%Actual4.7%2.70.6%1.5-LEAUS Auto SuppliersM2m4.4%2.764%-4.6%-2.0%(1.1)76%Actual8.8%5.3-1.4%0.2-ROKUS EEMIM2m-0.3%(0.2)66%-1.2%-4.5%1.578%Actual0.9%0.60.0%2.0-ATRUS PackagingM2m1.8%0.95.2%5.3%(0.0)#N/AA

28、ctual0.8%0.45.3%(0.0)-AVYUS PackagingM2m0.8%0.574%-0.7%-0.4%(0.2)69%Actual0.5%0.30.1%0.3-SWKUS EEMIM2m0.5%0.376%4.4%4.6%(0.1)78%Actual1.0%0.74.0%(0.3)-CATUS MachineryM2m-2.0%(0.5)79%2.6%-0.4%0.766%Actual-9.4%(2.1)-5.6%(1.2)-SEEUS PackagingM2m-0.1%(0.1)79%3.7%3.4%0.363%Actual-1.9%(2.6)2.7%(0.7)-AMEUS

29、 EEMIM2m-1.1%(0.6)83%7.9%7.1%0.484%Actual-0.1%(0.1)7.0%(0.1)-OIUS PackagingM2m-0.5%(0.6)66%1.3%0.7%0.478%Actual-2.8%(3.2)-3.6%(2.5)-DANUS Auto SuppliersM2m-1.4%(0.8)64%12.5%10.2%0.576%Actual-3.2%(1.9)9.6%(0.1)-EMRUS EEMIM2m-1.4%(0.9)81%4.2%2.2%0.672%Actual0.7%0.41.7%(0.1)-FLSUS MachineryM2m0.3%0.262

30、%3.4%5.8%(0.5)76%Actual1.3%0.64.6%(0.3)-RBCUS EEMIM2m-2.2%(1.1)63%-10.5%-12.6%0.672%Actual-7.4%(3.7)-16.5%(1.1)-PHUS EEMIM2m-1.8%(0.8)86%-4.0%-4.4%0.272%Actual-1.4%(0.7)-4.2%0.1-APTVUS Auto SuppliersM2m1.9%0.976%-0.3%4.1%(1.5)96%Actual5.1%2.32.1%(0.7)-KMTUS MachineryM2m-3.1%(1.2)86%-6.2%-6.6%0.271%A

31、ctual-9.1%(3.6)-12.0%(1.9)-ITWUS MachineryM2m0.4%0.483%-4.1%-2.1%(2.0)84%Actual1.0%0.8-3.8%(1.7)-HONUS EEMIM2m-0.8%(0.6)79%-15.5%-15.3%(0.1)67%Actual-2.5%(2.0)-15.6%(0.2)-ETNUS EEMIM2m-0.9%(0.7)74%0.8%1.9%(0.5)81%Actual-3.1%(2.4)-1.8%(1.6)NegativeHUBBUS MachineryM2m-1.1%(0.8)74%1.6%2.5%(0.7)79%Actua

32、l-0.9%(0.7)2.1%(0.3)NegativeMMMUS EEMIM2m-0.3%(0.3)81%-1.2%0.2%(0.9)84%Actual-0.5%(0.5)-2.0%(1.3)NegativeWSOUS EEMIM2m-2.1%(1.0)69%3.4%6.3%(1.1)72%Actual1.6%0.77.6%0.5NegativeTKRUS MachineryM2m-2.5%(1.1)72%5.2%7.3%(0.7)72%Actual-5.0%(2.3)3.7%(1.2)NegativeIRUS EEMIM2m-1.4%(1.0)74%4.6%6.7%(1.2)72%Actu

33、al1.6%1.28.0%0.7NegativeAGCOUS MachineryM2m-2.5%(1.2)83%-4.7%0.1%(1.1)78%Actual-1.8%(0.9)-4.7%(1.1)NegativeWCCUS EEMIM2m-2.4%(1.1)72%0.2%4.3%(1.3)79%Actual1.5%0.63.9%(0.1)NegativeGWWUS EEMIM2m-1.2%(0.9)72%2.2%4.2%(1.3)66%Actual0.4%0.34.1%(0.0)NegativeCMIUS MachineryM2m-5.1%(1.7)71%-2.6%-0.8%(0.4)72%

34、Actual-5.6%(1.9)-3.0%(0.5)NegativeMTORUS Auto SuppliersM2m-10.3%(2.0)74%-3.5%-2.1%(0.3)81%Actual-12.7%(2.5)-4.8%(0.6)NegativeURIUS MachineryM2m-2.4%(1.4)81%10.7%15.9%(2.4)79%Actual-0.8%(0.5)17.6%0.8NegativeCNHIUS MachineryM2m-3.9%(1.2)75%-9.1%1.1%(2.7)81%Actual-0.9%(0.3)-5.7%(1.8)NegativePCARUS Mach

35、ineryM2m-15.6%(2.8)62%-2.8%9.2%(2.1)62%Actual-4.7%(0.8)10.8%0.3Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Bloomberg, UBS Estimates.Section 1 - US Machinery: Revenue growth estimate breakdownM2m Nowcasting SignalCompanyQuarter EndCYQ3Organic Revenue M2m Organic Acceleration (%)CYQ4 Y/Y Revenue Growth Bridge*M2m Organ

36、ic Revenue Growth (Y/Y)FX (Y/Y)M&A/Other (Y/Y)Residual*M2m CYQ4Revenue Growth (Y/Y)-PCARFQ4 201911.9% -4.7%=6.6%-0.4% 0.3% 0.1%=6.6%-CMIFQ4 2019-2.1% -2.1%=-4.1%-0.6% 0.0% 0.1%=-4.7%-URIFQ4 20195.4% -1.2%=4.2%0.0% 1.8% 0.0%=6.0%-HUBBFQ4 20192.6% -1.1%=1.5%0.1% -0.6% -0.1%=0.9%-TKRFQ4 2019-3.0% -1.8%

37、=-4.7%-1.0% 3.8% 0.0%=-1.9%-CNHIFQ4 2019-3.2% 0.3%=-2.9%-1.7% 0.0% 0.0%=-4.6%-CATFQ4 2019-4.7% -2.3%=-6.9%-0.3% 0.0% 0.1%=-7.2%-FLSFQ4 20197.4% 0.0%=7.4%-1.8% -0.5% -0.1%=5.0%-ITWFQ4 2019-1.6% -0.7%=-2.2%-1.4% 0.0% 0.0%=-3.7%-KMTFQ2 2020-10.7% -1.1%=-11.7%-0.7% -0.3% -0.1%=-12.8%NegativeAGCOFQ4 2019

38、-1.7% -2.3%=-3.9%-2.4% 0.0% 0.0%=-6.3%* Current quarter revenue growth estimates are built from previous quarters reported organic revenue growth, by adding in current quarter M2m organic revenue acceleration, currency growth and one-time M&A/Other growth estimates; * Residual refers to the differen

39、ce between compounding the growth components and adding them; Source: Bloomberg, Factset, UBS estimates, UBS Evidence LabSection 1 - US Machinery: End markets with largest contributions to Q4 accelerationSignal as of: 25 Nov 19RegionNorthAmericaConstructionEquipmentM2i Organic Acceleration()*Impacte

40、d Companies(0.8)CAT, CMI, CNHI, KMT, URI, TKR(0.8)EuropeAgriculturalEquipment(0.7)CAT, ConstructionEquipment(0.8)CAT,KMT,ITW,TKR NorthAmericaGeneralIndustrials(2.1)KMT, URI, ITW, TKR, HUBB NorthAmericaBrandedTrucks(0.8)NorthAmericaCommercialVehicles(0.6)PCAR, TKREuropeConstructionEquipment(0.5)CAT,

41、KMT, ITW, TKR NorthAmericaMining, OilandGas(0.5)CAT,KMT,URI,FLS,TKR,HUBBEuropeCommercialVehicles0.3PCAR, NorthAmericaAuto PartsSouthAmericaConstructionEquipment CommercialVehiclesNorthAmericaConstruction SuppliesSouthAmericaMining,OilandGas Railway EquipmentNorthAmericaAnimal Feed NorthAmericaAutomo

42、tiveProductionConstructionSupplies NorthAmericaAgriculturalEquipmentMining, Oil and Gas NorthAmericaPowerGeneratingEquipmentAgriculturalEquipment NorthAmericaFabricatedMetalsNorthAmericaResidential Construction NorthAmericaPrimaryMetals(0.9)(0.9)(1.1)0.7 (1.0)(0.7)(0.9)(0.9)0.9(1.4)0.50.3(0.7)(0.6)(

43、0.9)(0.6)PCAR,KMT,TKR CAT, URI, TKR, HUBB CAT, FLSCAT CNHI ITWCAT, ITW, TKR AGCO, CMI, CNHI CAT, CMI, KMT, TKR CMI, TKR, HUBBCAT,KMT, ITW,TKRURI,ITW KMT,URI,ITW* Macro-to-Industry (M2i) refers to Nowcasting estimates for Q/Q change in Y/Y growth of 150 different regional end-markets using available

44、macro/industry data; The estimates are presented in terms of their historical standard deviations, and we consider a value above +0.75 or below -0.75 as meaningful; M2m company NowcastingestimatesarebuiltfromM2iestimatesbaseduponthecompanysexposuretotherelevantregionalendmarkets;Forease,onlythoseM2i

45、regionalend marketsthathavethelargestcontributiontotheaggregategrouporganicrevenueaccelerationestimatesarebeingpresentedhere.Source:Bloomberg,Factset,UBS estimates, UBS Evidence LabSection 1 - US Machinery: Key drivers of company estimatesCompanyRegionM2iEnd-MarketM2m Organic Acceleration (%)M2i Org

46、anic Acceleration ()*PCARNorth AmericaPACCAR Branded Trucks -4.7%(0.8)North AmericaCommercial Vehicles(0.6)North AmericaAuto Parts(0.9)South AmericaCommercial Vehicles(0.2)EuropeCommercial Vehicles0.3CMINorth AmericaCommercial Vehicles -2.1%(0.6)North AmericaAuto Parts(0.9)North AmericaConstruction

47、Equipment(0.8)North AmericaMining, Oil and Gas(0.5)North AmericaPower Generating Equipment(0.6)AsiaPower Generating Equipment(0.4)North AmericaAgricultural Equipment0.3URINorth AmericaGeneral Industrials -1.2%(2.1)North AmericaConstruction Supplies(1.0)North AmericaConstruction Equipment(0.8)North A

48、mericaMining, Oil and Gas(0.5)North AmericaPrimary Metals(0.6)North AmericaChemicals(0.3)North AmericaNon-Residential Construction0.2HUBBNorth AmericaGeneral Industrials -1.1%(2.1)North AmericaConstruction Supplies(1.0)North AmericaPower Generating Equipment(0.6)North AmericaTurbine Equipment(0.5)No

49、rth AmericaElectrical Lighting Equipment(0.0)North AmericaNon-Residential Construction0.2North AmericaRepair and Remodel0.5TKRNorth AmericaFabricated Metals -1.8%(0.9)EuropeConstruction Equipment(0.5)South AmericaPrimary Metals(0.4)United StatesDefense and Military(0.2)EuropeNon-Defense Aerospace0.1

50、South AmericaGeneral Industrials0.4North AmericaRailway Equipment0.9* Macro-to-Industry (M2i) refers to Nowcasting estimates for Q/Q change in Y/Y growth of 150 different regional end-markets using available macro/industry data; CompanysegmentorganicrevenueaccelerationisestimatedthroughrelevantM2ien

51、d-marketestimatestowhichthesegmenthasexposure;Forease,onlythoseM2i regionalendmarketsthathavemeaningfulcontributiontoacompanysegmentsorganicrevenueaccelerationestimatesarebeingpresentedhere.Source: Bloomberg, Factset, UBS estimates, UBS Evidence LabCNHINorth AmericaAnimal Feed 0.3%0.9EuropeCommercia

52、l Vehicles0.3AsiaCommercial Vehicles0.7North AmericaAgricultural Equipment0.3AsiaAgricultural Equipment0.3AsiaAgricultural Chemicals(0.9)EuropeAgricultural Equipment(0.7)CATNorth AmericaConstruction Equipment -2.3%(0.8)AsiaConstruction Equipment(0.8)South AmericaConstruction Equipment(1.1)EuropeCons

53、truction Equipment(0.5)North AmericaMining, Oil and Gas(0.5)South AmericaMining, Oil and Gas(0.7)AsiaConstruction Supplies0.5FLSNorth AmericaFlow Equipment and Pumps 0.0%(0.3)North AmericaChemicals(0.3)North AmericaElectricity / Power Generation(0.3)EuropeMining, Oil and Gas(0.0)EuropeGeneral Indust

54、rials0.1EuropeTurbine Equipment0.7AsiaFlow Equipment and Pumps0.5ITWNorth AmericaGeneral Industrials -0.7%(2.1)North AmericaAutomotive Production(0.9)North AmericaPrimary Metals(0.6)EuropeFood Consumption(0.3)North AmericaAutomotive Aftermarket(0.1)North AmericaFood Consumption(0.0)AsiaAutomotive Pr

55、oduction0.4KMTNorth AmericaGeneral Industrials -1.1%(2.1)North AmericaConstruction Equipment(0.8)North AmericaAuto Parts(0.9)North AmericaMining, Oil and Gas(0.5)EuropeConstruction Equipment(0.5)North AmericaChemicals(0.3)GermanyGeneral Industrials1.1AGCOSouth AmericaAgricultural Equipment -2.3%(0.8

56、)EuropeAgricultural Equipment(0.7)AsiaFood Production(1.6)AsiaAgricultural Grains(0.3)AsiaDairy Products(0.6)North AmericaAgricultural Grains0.2North AmericaAgricultural Equipment0.3* Macro-to-Industry (M2i) refers to Nowcasting estimates for Q/Q change in Y/Y growth of 150 different regional end-ma

57、rkets using available macro/industry data; CompanysegmentorganicrevenueaccelerationisestimatedthroughrelevantM2iend-marketestimatestowhichthesegmenthasexposure;Forease,onlythoseM2i regionalendmarketsthathavemeaningfulcontributiontoacompanysegmentsorganicrevenueaccelerationestimatesarebeingpresentedh

58、ere.Source: Bloomberg, Factset, UBS estimates, UBS Evidence LabSection 1 - US Machinery: Historical hit rateHistorical M2m Nowcasting Statistics: Hit Rate (Revenue Surprise)%ofsignalsthatJan2015untilJanwere directionallyCorrectIncorrectPCAR62%38%CMI72%28%URI79%21%TKR72%28%CNHI81%19%HUBB79%21%CAT66%3

59、4%FLS76%24%KMT71%29%ITW84%16%AGCO78%22%*TheanalysisuseshistoricalmonthlycompanyrevenuegrowthestimatesfromM2mmodels;Iftherevenuegrowthestimateisonthesamesideofconsensusasthe actual reported by the company, then the estimate is considered directionally correct, else is considered directionally wrong;

60、Historical estimates typically go back 5 years. However there are instances when that has not been possible due to unavailability of relevant consensus due to changes in company structure or reporting. Source: Bloomberg, Factset, UBS estimates, UBS EvidenceLabSection 2 - US Electrical Equipment and