2021年全球数字零售银行报告（文档）

1、本文格式为Word版，下载可任意编辑 2021年全球数字零售银行报告（文档） 下面是我为大家整理的2021年全球数字零售银行报告（精选文档）,供大家参考。 C ont ents 05 | The C halleng e St arts Now 07 | R ev enues Ar e U nder Pressur e 11 | Mor e C ust omers Ar e Bec oming Mor e Digit al Mor e Quickly 15 | A New P ar adigm f or C osts 17 | Fr ont-t o -Back Digit al V alue S

2、tr eams 22 | A Stack ed Op er ating Mo del 29 | The Need t o A ct Now 3 THE FR ONT - T O - B A CK DIGIT AL RE T AIL B ANK Thr ee C halleng es Define the Futur e f or R et ail Banks The amount of time it will t ak e f or global r et ail-banking r ev enues t o r eturn t o 2022 lev els The incr ease in

3、 the use of mobile banking worldwide during the C O VID -19 crisisand further incr eases will f ollow The efficiency of leading r et ail banks, c ompar ed with that of the typic al r et ail bank 3 y ears 30% 2x S our c e: BC G analy sis. Ch a p t er o r S e c tio n S t a r t P a g e w i th au th o r

4、 b io a n d o n e co l umn R The C halleng e St arts Now et ail banks around the world r eact ed t o the C O VID -19 crisis with speed, dext erity , and purp ose, while r emaining true t o their envir onment al, so cial, and c orpor at e g o v ernanc e g oals. When customers st a y ed home, banks cl

5、osed or c onv ert ed br anches, r edir ecting their r esour c es and customers t o r emot e and digital chan - nels. As it b ec ame clear that an ec onomic crisis lo omed as well, banks promptly t o ok st eps t o impr o v e their financial p osition. To help financially str essed customers weather t

6、he crisis, banks off er ed them loan def err als or moratori - ums. And they did it all in the span of a f ew weeks. That w as then. Now , as the new r eality starts t o t ak e shap e , banks f ac e further challeng es. The pandemic sho ck has ac c eler at ed chang es alr eady underw a y and spark e

7、d new ones. Institutions r ev enues ar e under pr essur e, and global banking r ev enue p o ols ha v e alr eady t ak en a signific ant beating. U nder the most optimistic sc enario, those p o ols ar e not exp ect ed t o r eturn t o pr ecrisis lev els until 2022. C ust omers ar e mo ving t o digital

8、channels f aster than they ha v e in the past . Online banking use has risen b y 23%, and mobile banking use is up b y 30%. These chang es ar e lik ely t o b e p ermanent , ac c eler ating the migration t o digital channels b y thr ee t o f our y ears o v er pr ecrisis tr ends. As customers mo v e o

9、nline, banks p osition at the int ersec - tion of the cust omer and financial ser vic es is c oming under att ack. A st ack ed industr y landsc ap e, with diff er ent typ es of pla y ers c omp eting at each lev el, is t aking shap e. Non - bank insurgents ar e making str ong inr oads in distribution

10、, thr eatening t o c ommoditize many banking pr o ducts. P erhaps ab o v e all, r et ail banks need t o r ethink and r e- align c ostsst arting now . C urr ent c ost structur es ar e not sust ainable. R et ail banks must b ec ome digit alfr om fr ont t o back and they must org anize around v alue st

11、r eams, a series of v alue-adding activities that lead t o the o v er all r esult that customers need. While most banks ha v e prioritized select digitization measur es ( oft en f o cusing on fr ont-end func - tions that will ha v e the most cust omer impact), they ha v e not put an eq uiv alent eff

12、 ort int o c ost and risk c ontr ol (the back - end or int ernal pr o c esses). As a r esult , cust omers digital exp erienc e has impr o v ed, and they ar e enjo ying new options and f eatur es, but banks fix ed c osts, which ar e larg ely tied t o t errestrial assets, r emain in plac e. Without ad

13、dr essing c osts, banks will struggle t o monetize their curr ent inv estments. This r ep ort examines what r et ail banks need t o do. R ev enues Ar e Under Pr essur e he new r eality gr eets banks with tr ouble at the t op line. W e plott ed thr ee r ev enue sc enarios f or r et ail banks using di

14、ff er ent global GDP f or ec asts. A Quick R eb ound. U nder this sc enario, GDP r ev erts q uickly in a V -shaped r ec o v er y , r eturning t o 2022 lev els in 2021. Emplo yment r ec o v ers t o pr e- C O VID -19 lev els. Global tr ade picks up and o v er c omp ensat es f or short-t erm output los

15、ses, while c onsumer c onfidenc e r eturns t o pr ecrisis lev els. L arg e-sc ale loan losses don t mat erialize, thanks t o g o v ernment supp ort and the r ec o v ering macr o ec onomic envir onment . Banks c an mak e up their r ev enue losses b y 2022. T Sub dued R ev enue Gr owth Is Anticipat ed

16、 During the Next F our Y ears R et ail and priv at e- client r ev enues globall y ($billions ) 3,000 2,500 2,000 Quick r eb ound Slow r ec o v ery Deep er impact 1,500 1,000 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2021 2022 2023 2024 CA GR 20222024 (%) R et ail and priv at e- client r ev enues globally (

17、$billions) 2,586 2,254 2,371 2,132 2022 Quick rebound Slow recovery 2024 s c e na r i o e s t i m a t e s 1.1 2.8 Pr e-C O VID -19 1.0 Deeper impact S our c e: BC Gs banking p o ols, S ept emb er 2022. A Slow R ec o v ery . In a slow r ec o v er y , a deep decline in the GDP gr owth r at e in 2022 r

18、 ev erts t o the pr epandemic r at e f ollowing a U-shap ed r eb ound. GDP r eturns t o 2022 lev els in 2022. Emplo yment impr o ves, but stubb orn p o ck ets of unemplo yment c ontinue in deeply aff ect ed sectors. Global tr ade slowly r eg ains momentum, although many barriers r emain in plac e. C

19、 onsumer c onfidenc e partly r ec o v ers, but it r emains v olatile as unc ert ainty ling ers. Banks exp erienc e sect or -sp ecific loan losses and some impact on unsecur ed r et ail lending. A Deep er Impact. U nder this sc enario, the c or onavirus r emains pr ev alent , r esurf acing in multipl

20、e wa ves. R ec es - sionar y c onditions ar e har d t o o v er c ome in many r egions. GDP f ollows an elong at ed L tr aject or y , with high or rising unemplo yment r at es o v er multiple y ears. GDP do es not r eturn t o 2022 lev els until 2024. Global tr ade t ak es a struc - tur al hit , and g

21、 eop olitic al t ensions rise. C onsumer c onfi - denc e declines in the f ac e of r ep eat ed lo ckdowns. C orp o - r at e and r et ail lenders exp erienc e larg e-sc ale loan losses. Fr om a r egional p ersp ectiv e, ther es bad news f or banks in dev elop ed mark ets. In the latt er two sc enario

22、s, the r ev enue outlo ok is b etween mo dest and bleak. E v en with a q uick r ec o v er y , r et ail banks in dev elop ed mark ets f ac e a slow climb back t o 2022 r ev enue lev els. The Most Pr of ound R ev enue Declines Ar e Exp ect ed t o Be in W estern Eur op e and North Americ a G lobal r et

23、 ail-banking r ev enue p ools ($billions ) W orldwide W est ern Eur op e North Americ a East ern Eur op e Middle East and Afric a Latin Americ a Asia-P acif i c 2022 Quick rebound 2024E Slow recovery 2024E Deeper impact 2024E CA GR f or r ev enue sc enarios, 20222024 2,586 2,254 360 2,371 333 2,132

24、349 301 766 712 727 640 88 123 228 108 140 98 129 248 89 117 22939 739 851 762 Regions Western Europe North America Eastern Europe Middle East and Africa Latin America Asia-Pacif i c Quick rebound (%) Slow recovery (%) Deeper impact (%) S our c e: BC Gs banking p o ols, S ept emb er 2022. 0.6 1.1 4.

25、1 2.5 3.7 4.9 0.9 0.4 2.2 0.8 1.7 2.9 3.0 2.5 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.6 Fr om a pr o duct st andp oint , r ev enues fr om c onsumer financ e loans and other lending will t ak e the larg est hit . New business will b e har d t o c ome b y . The positiv e impact of e- c ommer c e will b e partially offset b y a

26、 decline in c onsumer sp ending, esp ecially on big -tick et it ems. Nonp erf orming loans will weigh on the ability t o g ener at e futur e gr owth. The exp ect ed long-t erm run of r o ck -b ott om int er est r at es will aff ect b oth dep osit holdings and r eturns. In addition, an incr ease in c ont actless mobile pa yments ma y lead t o a long-t erm shift awa y fr om cr edit c ar d usag ea chang e that c o