房地产行业三季报总结及全年业绩前瞻：增长是主基调业绩锁定性较佳

1、内容目录 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 前三季业绩增长较好4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 市场关注的 2019 年三季报财务指标6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 板块盈利能力略有下降，个股出现分化6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 负债水平保持稳定12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 少数股东权益占比提升15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 三季度去化速度明显加快17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 优势房企业绩锁定性较佳20 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002

2、优势房企销售表现优异21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 优势地产股长期仍具配置价值23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 风险24国信证券投资评级26分析师承诺26风险提示26证券投资咨询业务的说明26图表目录图 1：板块前三季度营收变化情况4图 2：板块前三季度净利变化情况4图 3：板块毛利率变化情况7图 4：板块净利率变化情况7图 5：行业负债水平变化情况12图 6：短期偿债能力变化情况12图 7：2019 年 1-10 月龙头房企销售增速一览22图 8：2019 年 1-9 月房地产投资累计同比增速23图 9：2019 年 1-9 月销售额累计同比增速23

3、图 10：2019 年 1-9 月新开工面积累计同比增速23图 11：2019 年 1-9 月施工面积累计同比增速23图 12：当前板块动态 PE 处在近五年第二低位24表 1：2019 年前三季房地产板块营业收入、归母净利润同比增速一览4表 2：房地产板块毛利率、净利率同比变化一览7表 3：房地产板块 ROE、ROIC 变化一览10表 4：房地产板块 2019 前三季负债水平及短期偿债能力一览13表 5：房地产板块 “少数股东权益比”较“少数股东损益比”情况15表 6：房地产板块 2019 年三季度存货去化情况18表 7：地产 A 股业绩锁定性一览21表 8：2019 年 1-10 月销售

4、TOP30 优势房企一览22前三季业绩增长较好房地产板块 2019 年前三季度的营收和净利润主要结转于 2017 年上半年的销售，部分结转于 2016 年下半年的销售，这期间行业量价齐升，所销售的项目毛利率较高，因此房地产板块 2019 年前三季业绩整体较好。根据房地产板块 131 家上市公司的财报数据，2019 年前三季度板块营业收入14712 亿元，同比增长 22.0%；归母净利润 1379 亿元，同比增长 11.7%。56% 的房企归母净利润实现了正增长，其中： 增速大于 300%的有 7 家，包括海泰发展、荣丰控股、浙江广厦、大名城、黑牡丹、粤宏远 A、栖霞建设等； 增速位于 100%

5、至 300%之间的有 9 家，包括凤凰股份、三湘印象、哈高科、北京城建、大龙地产、中华企业、蓝光发展等； 增速位于 20%至 100%之间的有 36 家，包括金科股份、中南建设、大悦城、泰禾集团、天健集团、阳光城、保利地产、绿地控股、万科 A、华夏幸福、新城控股等。图 1：板块前三季度营收变化情况图 2：板块前三季度净利变化情况板块营业收入（亿元）板块营业收入同比增速板块归母净利润（亿元）板块归母净利润同比增速16000140001200010000800060004000200002016/9/302017/9/302018/9/302019/9/3040%35%30%25%20%15%10

6、%5%0%160014001200100080060040020002016/9/302017/9/302018/9/302019/9/3035%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%资料来源: Wind、 整理资料来源: Wind、 整理表 1：2019 年前三季房地产板块营业收入、归母净利润同比增速一览序号证券代码证券简称2019 前三季归母净利润同比2019 前三季营业收入同比增增速（%）速（%）1600082.SH海泰发展148482000668.SZ荣丰控股13111623600052.SH浙江广厦1012-84归母净利润增4600094.SH大名城73065600510.SH黑牡丹

7、4631106000573.SZ粤宏远 A3911817600533.SH栖霞建设340308600716.SH凤凰股份22059000863.SZ三湘印象2121810600095.SH哈高科191163归母净利润同11600266.SH北京城建16839比增速位于12600647.SH同达创业161-12之间13600159.SH大龙地产141-1714600675.SH中华企业1291515600466.SH蓝光发展1089516600807.SHST 天业101-6归母净利润同17600732.SHST 新梅9551比增速位于18600064.SH南京高科87-5320%至 100%1

8、9000656.SZ金科股份8261速大于 300%100%至 300%之间20000961.SZ中南建设793721000517.SZ荣安地产60922600565.SH迪马股份513723600748.SH上实发展511524600223.SH鲁商发展482825600322.SH天房发展473926000031.SZ大悦城476827000732.SZ泰禾集团47828000090.SZ天健集团433129000671.SZ阳光城432330000718.SZ苏宁环球392331600208.SH新湖中宝395632000046.SZ泛海控股37333600890.SH中房股份34-17

9、34600048.SH保利地产341835600606.SH绿地控股332636000402.SZ金融街325437600177.SH雅戈尔314538603506.SH南都物业312239002146.SZ荣盛发展312740002016.SZ世荣兆业315341000002.SZ万科 A302742000838.SZ财信发展30943600185.SH格力地产298944600376.SH首开股份293945000560.SZ我爱我家28346600724.SH宁波富达27-3347600007.SH中国国贸251148600340.SH华夏幸福244249000042.SZ中洲控股22-

10、4650002244.SZ滨江集团22-1951600848.SH上海临港20-1452601155.SH新城控股201953000918.SZ嘉凯城187054000069.SZ华侨城 A182255000029.SZ深深房 A181956600663.SH陆家嘴162257600648.SH外高桥121958000679.SZ大连友谊11-2959601588.SH北辰实业10-760000897.SZ*ST 津滨94361600325.SH华发股份748归母净利润同62000537.SZ广宇发展7-9比增速位于63002377.SZ国创高新7140%至 20%之64600823.SH世茂

11、股份45间65600639.SH浦东金桥45766600173.SH卧龙地产4-3767600383.SH金地集团32768600895.SH张江高科32069600743.SH华远地产2370600162.SH香江控股2-671600773.SH西藏城投21672002305.SZ南国置业112673000540.SZ中天金SZ中国武SH天津松江-2-6676000514.SZ渝开发-5-4977000056.SZ皇庭国际-75归母净利润同78000006.SZ深振业 A-102379600215.SH长春经开-11-6980000036.

12、SZ华联控股-18-1781600067.SH冠城大通-197比下降82000909.SZ数源科技-27-3983000011.SZ深物业 A-29-1684600246.SH万通地产-29-7585600622.SH光大嘉宝-301286600665.SH天地源-30-3887600657.SH信达地产-31988600736.SH苏州高新-337789002133.SZ广宇集团-352390000534.SZ万泽股份-35891600641.SH万业企业-37-3092000631.SZ顺发恒业-38-2393001979.SZ招商蛇口-38-2494600393.SH粤泰股份-39749

13、5000926.SZ福星股份-39-2096600708.SH光明地产-43-997600649.SH城投控股-44-6198000620.SZ新华联-47-999600692.SH亚通股份-4811100002208.SZ合肥城建-49-35101600658.SH电子城-54-30102600515.SH海航基础-55-3103600604.SH市北高新-63-19104002314.SZ南山控股-66-28105000736.SZ中交地产-70-11106600638.SH新黄浦-70-24107000667.SZ美好置业-74233108600791.SH京能置业-7853109002

14、285.SZ世联行SZ中航善达-83-2111600684.SH珠江实业-84-22112000616.SZ海航投资-102-5113000502.SZ绿景控股-104-10114000965.SZ天保基建-108-91115600683.SH京投发展-131-41116600077.SH宋都股份-140-21117000691.SZ亚太实业-157-37118000981.SZST 银亿SH华丽家族-200-26120600568.SH中珠医疗-210-27121000506.SZ中润资源SZ

15、ST 新光-315-10123000558.SZ莱茵体育-406-87124000809.SZ铁岭新城-545-25125600239.SH云南城投-567-31126600463.SH空港股份-577-19127000014.SZ沙河股份-596-51128000608.SZ阳光股份-651-26129000615.SZ京汉股份-8307130000609.SZ中迪投资-114514131600240.SH*ST 华业-3626-97资料来源: Wind、 整理（以上数据仅作列示，不做推荐）市场关注的 2019 年三季报财务指标板块盈利能力略有下降，个股出现分化板块整体盈利能力略有下降，20

16、19 年前三季度，板块毛利率为 31.6%，较上半年末下降 1.0 个百分点；板块净利率为 11.9 %，较上半年末下降 1.4 个百分点。图 3：板块毛利率变化情况图 4：板块净利率变化情况销售毛利率（%）销售净利率（%）411638351432122910268资料来源: Wind， 整理资料来源: Wind， 整理在房地产板块 131 家上市公司中，58%的房企 2019 年前三季的毛利率较 2018年同期有所提升， 44%的房企 2019 年前三季的净利率较 2018 年同期有所提升。其中，53%的房企毛利率水平高于行业平均水平，44%的房企净利率水平高于行业平均水平，个股盈利能力出现

17、分化。表 2：房地产板块毛利率、净利率同比变化一览2019 年前三2018 年前三毛利率提升2019 年前三2018 年前三净利率利率提（%）（%）（%）（%）1000608.SZ阳光股份90.273.416.8-12.14.8-16.92000534.SZ万泽股份88.059.828.215.93.512.43000036.SZ华联控股75.273.71.529.529.10.34000056.SZ皇庭国际70.564.85.721.226.9-5.75002016.SZ世荣兆业69.366.72.634.641.0-6.46600848.SH上海临港68.357.410.839.925.0

18、14.97000029.SZ深深房 A65.255.89.323.123.4-0.38000718.SZ苏宁环球63.655.38.331.626.25.39600052.SH浙江广厦62.717.045.71488.821.51467.210000069.SZ华侨城 A62.660.91.722.821.90.911600177.SH雅戈尔59.658.31.444.849.5-4.712600663.SH陆家嘴59.249.89.431.632.6-1.013000668.SZ荣丰控股56.749.67.120.03.816.114600895.SH张江高科55.944.311.657.2

19、66.8-9.615002208.SZ合肥城建55.439.815.617.912.25.716600675.SH中华企业54.631.223.423.111.911.217600007.SH中国国贸54.453.11.328.425.33.218600246.SH万通地产53.734.019.737.215.521.719600162.SH香江控股53.246.76.58.97.81.120600604.SH市北高新50.440.99.521.316.74.621000042.SZ中洲控股50.345.94.420.910.610.322600639.SH浦东金桥50.265.9-15.82

20、9.744.8-15.023000965.SZ天保基建49.257.2-8.0-14.816.9-31.724000031.SZ大悦城48.442.06.416.817.1-0.425000402.SZ金融街47.947.30.613.614.1-0.426600641.SH万业企业47.756.3-8.633.036.7-3.727000046.SZ泛海控股47.755.2-7.5160.976.084.928600533.SH栖霞建设47.437.79.729.58.720.829600683.SH京投发展47.328.318.912.59.82.630600240.SH*ST 华业47.

21、159.0-11.9-3293.6-2.9-3290.731000011.SZ深物业 A46.924.222.74.612.0-7.432600173.SH卧龙地产46.940.36.626.019.36.733600077.SH宋都股份46.647.3-0.7-5.610.0-15.634601588.SH北辰实业43.037.25.814.915.1-0.235002314.SZ南山控股42.946.5-3.54.110.1-5.9序号证券代码证券简称季销售毛利率季销售毛利率（百分点）季销售净利率季销售净利率升（百分点）36600376.SH首开股份42.525.916.715.79.46

22、.337600503.SH华丽家族42.137.24.9-24.98.0-32.938600773.SH西藏城投42.039.52.57.38.3-1.039600064.SH南京高科42.049.3-7.4123.734.289.540600510.SH黑牡丹41.917.324.618.83.914.941600383.SH金地集团41.741.40.419.523.0-3.542000537.SZ广宇发展41.432.78.718.816.02.843000006.SZ深振业 A40.839.01.923.534.2-10.744000517.SZ荣安地产40.537.72.822.71

23、7.15.645600340.SH华夏幸福40.445.4-5.015.417.6-2.246002244.SZ滨江集团40.231.98.318.513.94.647600208.SH新湖中宝39.828.111.722.025.0-3.048000631.SZ顺发恒业38.549.8-11.439.745.6-5.949600622.SH光大嘉宝37.354.2-16.99.320.9-11.650600515.SH海航基础37.245.3-8.06.622.7-16.151000540.SZ中天金融37.229.67.614.665.7-51.252600159.SH大龙地产37.010

24、.426.63.0-9.312.353601155.SH新城控股36.638.6-2.014.116.6-2.554000863.SZ三湘印象36.336.5-0.218.25.712.555600393.SH粤泰股份36.237.2-1.08.024.4-16.456001979.SZ招商蛇口36.041.2-5.222.828.8-6.057000002.SZ万科 A36.034.81.212.812.40.458600048.SH保利地产35.932.73.215.714.21.559600638.SH新黄浦35.931.04.98.216.8-8.660600724.SH宁波富达35.

25、429.36.122.912.510.461000514.SZ渝开发34.724.110.57.36.90.462600225.SH天津松江34.520.514.0-35.5-12.4-23.063600239.SH云南城投34.339.4-5.0-25.54.5-30.064600325.SH华发股份34.227.56.711.212.1-0.965600568.SH中珠医疗33.850.4-16.5-4.95.9-10.866600743.SH华远地产33.631.12.58.710.6-1.967000667.SZ美好置业33.413.919.52.240.6-38.468600736.

26、SH苏州高新33.432.60.88.318.2-9.969600094.SH大名城33.033.9-0.99.51.77.770600823.SH世茂股份32.537.0-4.516.917.5-0.671002146.SZ荣盛发展31.332.2-0.912.413.7-1.372600684.SH珠江实业31.330.11.25.58.9-3.473600565.SH迪马股份30.638.7-8.19.47.22.274000573.SZ粤宏远 A30.415.414.917.6-19.036.675000560.SZ我爱我家30.229.70.57.76.51.276000656.SZ

27、金科股份30.125.94.110.89.01.877600067.SH冠城大通29.932.0-2.15.68.3-2.878000897.SZ*ST 津滨29.827.02.8-24.9-34.49.579600648.SH外高桥29.528.31.211.612.3-0.880002133.SZ广宇集团29.542.7-13.312.221.4-9.281000620.SZ新华联29.132.4-3.22.85.5-2.682000615.SZ京汉股份29.122.76.30.40.20.283000732.SZ泰禾集团28.931.0-2.010.810.9-0.184600657.S

28、H信达地产28.633.7-5.17.912.3-4.585000926.SZ福星股份28.632.9-4.38.110.1-2.086600185.SH格力地产28.542.5-14.014.721.4-6.787000671.SZ阳光城28.426.51.97.96.31.688600215.SH长春经开27.811.516.341.614.327.289000014.SZ沙河股份27.726.51.3-12.72.2-15.090000609.SZ中迪投资27.222.05.2-361.1-33.8-327.291600708.SH光明地产27.237.6-10.48.612.4-3.8

29、92002147.SZST 新光27.229.3-2.1-20.48.2-28.593600748.SH上实发展27.129.1-2.010.210.10.194600082.SH海泰发展26.918.18.83.50.23.295600658.SH电子城26.764.5-37.913.821.3-7.596600466.SH蓝光发展26.031.6-5.69.39.10.297000838.SZ财信发展25.823.22.5-0.21.9-2.198600791.SH京能置业24.918.76.25.421.8-16.499600665.SH天地源24.820.74.09.88.71.110

30、0000918.SZ嘉凯城24.51.822.6-35.1-80.545.5101603506.SH南都物业23.922.61.410.29.20.9102000736.SZ中交地产23.338.6-15.37.812.3-4.6103600649.SH城投控股22.426.8-4.525.018.56.5104600266.SH北京城建22.330.4-8.218.48.410.0105000616.SZ海航投资21.822.1-0.3-3.4177.6-181.0106000909.SZ数源科技21.815.95.93.43.7-0.3107600732.SHST 新梅21.50.820.

31、711.9-27.239.1108000558.SZ莱茵体育20.628.7-8.0-74.13.3-77.5109600807.SHST 天业20.44.316.21.7-105.5107.2110000502.SZ绿景控股20.218.41.8-16.3314.4-330.8111600322.SH天房发展20.027.7-7.67.96.71.2112000961.SZ中南建设20.021.3-1.35.75.20.5113600223.SH鲁商发展19.514.45.13.02.30.7114000043.SZ中航善达19.122.3-3.13.220.3-17.1115000090.

32、SZ天健集团18.817.81.04.03.70.3116000809.SZ铁岭新城18.326.7-8.4-65.311.0-76.3117600692.SH亚通股份18.223.9-5.74.69.1-4.5118600716.SH凤凰股份17.412.94.64.1-3.57.6119000797.SZ中国武夷17.122.7-5.76.210.6-4.3120000981.SZST 银亿16.429.0-12.6-11.515.9-27.4121002377.SZ国创高新15.716.6-0.86.16.9-0.8122000679.SZ大连友谊15.417.5-2.1-27.1-20

33、.8-6.3123600606.SH绿地控股14.415.0-0.65.34.90.4124600095.SH哈高科14.136.0-22.02.7-4.67.3125002285.SZ世联行11.720.7-9.01.37.2-5.9126600463.SH空港股份11.010.80.2-6.1-1.2-4.9127002305.SZ南国置业10.610.50.14.15.3-1.2128600647.SH同达创业8.961.1-52.2130.7-177.0307.7129000506.SZ中润资源1.99.3-7.4-12.4-0.8-11.6130000691.SZ亚太实业-5.014

34、.8-19.8-60.161.2-121.2131600890.SH中房股份-826.5-779.5-47.0-5601.5-7073.71472.2资料来源: Wind、 整理（以上数据仅作列示，不做推荐）在房地产板块 131 家上市公司中，42%的房企 2019 年前三季度的 ROE 较 2018年同期有所提升，其中蓝光发展、金科股份、中南建设分别增长了 7.0、6.0、3.8 个百分点；45%的房企 2019 年前三季度的年 ROIC 较 2018 年同期有所提升。表 3：房地产板块 ROE、ROIC 变化一览序号证券代码证券简称2019 年前三季 ROE（%）2018 年前三ROE 变

35、化（百季 ROE（%）分点）2019 年前三季 ROIC（%）2018 年前三ROIC 变化（百季 ROIC（%）分点）1600732.SHST 新梅40.6-1.742.327.1-1.929.12600052.SH浙江广厦39.94.635.325.12.622.53002016.SZ世荣兆业26.223.23.015.214.40.94600340.SH华夏幸福21.320.31.04.84.70.15000537.SZ广宇发展20.922.9-2.07.77.50.36000031.SZ大悦城19.413.06.46.04.31.77000656.SZ金科股份16.710.66.03.

36、72.71.08600606.SH绿地控股16.013.92.24.63.61.19600848.SH上海临港15.55.110.38.23.64.610600466.SH蓝光发展15.38.37.03.32.31.011600663.SH陆家嘴15.114.90.26.86.50.312600724.SH宁波富达14.716.4-1.79.84.94.913600064.SH南京高科14.37.86.410.77.03.714002146.SZ荣盛发展13.913.10.85.24.90.315600173.SH卧龙地产13.315.6-2.211.613.8-2.216600675.SH中

37、华企业13.112.01.28.26.81.417603506.SH南都物业13.014.7-1.713.514.6-1.118600533.SH栖霞建设12.93.09.94.41.82.619000029.SZ深深房 A12.712.40.312.912.00.820000036.SZ华联控股12.716.4-3.79.312.6-3.321000517.SZ荣安地产12.79.33.45.45.6-0.222000042.SZ中洲控股12.411.21.24.84.00.723601155.SH新城控股12.314.6-2.33.76.0-2.324000961.SZ中南建设12.28.

38、43.83.22.21.125000046.SZ泛海控股11.68.82.82.61.90.726600383.SH金地集团11.412.4-1.15.65.9-0.327000002.SZ万科 A11.310.31.06.66.00.628600177.SH雅戈尔11.29.31.86.44.91.529000732.SZ泰禾集团10.57.92.61.81.50.330600007.SH中国国贸10.48.91.48.36.71.531600325.SH华发股份10.313.0-2.71.81.60.332600048.SH保利地产10.38.71.54.43.80.633000069.S

39、Z华侨城 A9.99.60.34.44.20.234000718.SZ苏宁环球9.87.02.87.74.92.835000671.SZ阳光城9.47.81.61.71.40.336600641.SH万业企业9.315.0-5.78.714.0-5.337000540.SZ中天金融8.525.9-17.33.87.3-3.538000631.SZ顺发恒业8.414.0-5.67.29.9-2.739601588.SH北辰实业8.19.0-0.93.64.2-0.640600510.SH黑牡丹8.01.56.57.10.86.341600376.SH首开股份7.95.82.13.41.81.54

40、2000573.SZ粤宏远 A7.9-2.810.75.6-1.77.343600266.SH北京城建7.53.24.23.41.22.244600223.SH鲁商发展7.44.13.31.61.10.445600647.SH同达创业7.3-10.617.86.2-9.315.546000668.SZ荣丰控股7.20.66.74.90.34.647000006.SZ深振业 A7.28.8-1.75.26.6-1.348600208.SH新湖中宝7.15.41.73.52.70.849600665.SH天地源7.111.1-4.01.72.7-1.050600648.SH外高桥7.16.50.6

41、4.03.60.451000736.SZ中交地产7.013.6-6.62.23.6-1.452600565.SH迪马股份6.95.02.02.72.00.753001979.SZ招商蛇口6.712.2-5.52.85.3-2.554000560.SZ我爱我家6.65.90.86.45.70.755600639.SH浦东金桥6.56.50.04.04.5-0.556600823.SH世茂股份6.56.6-0.13.94.5-0.657002133.SZ广宇集团6.410.5-4.16.411.3-4.958600393.SH粤泰股份6.310.4-4.14.35.1-0.859000534.SZ

42、万泽股份6.31.15.34.5-0.14.660600185.SH格力地产6.25.11.22.21.80.361000863.SZ三湘印象6.01.84.23.51.22.262600162.SH香江控股5.74.51.23.73.20.563002244.SZ滨江集团5.54.90.65.06.0-1.064600895.SH张江高科5.25.30.03.53.7-0.365600622.SH光大嘉宝4.97.8-2.93.06.6-3.666002208.SZ合肥城建4.89.9-5.14.85.4-0.667600322.SH天房发展4.73.31.41.40.90.56800237

43、7.SZ国创高新4.54.50.04.34.3-0.169600708.SH光明地产4.39.2-4.81.43.4-2.070000402.SZ金融街4.33.50.82.41.90.571600748.SH上实发展4.32.91.42.52.40.172600743.SH华远地产3.84.0-0.21.31.30.073600094.SH大名城3.70.53.34.32.02.374000926.SZ福星股份3.76.4-2.82.12.6-0.475600736.SH苏州高新3.35.4-2.13.04.1-1.176600246.SH万通地产3.34.8-1.53.45.0-1.677

44、600067.SH冠城大通3.24.2-1.02.43.5-1.178000797.SZ中国武夷3.23.3-0.11.41.7-0.379000011.SZ深物业 A3.15.0-1.82.04.0-2.080600657.SH信达地产3.16.2-3.21.82.9-1.081000043.SZ中航善达2.918.2-15.32.58.1-5.682000090.SZ天健集团2.92.70.11.51.50.083600215.SH长春经开2.63.1-0.42.23.0-0.984600649.SH城投控股2.64.6-2.01.83.5-1.785600692.SH亚通股份2.44.9

45、-2.52.64.7-2.186000056.SZ皇庭国际2.22.8-0.63.13.10.087000620.SZ新华联2.24.7-2.51.72.0-0.388600658.SH电子城2.24.7-2.61.93.4-1.589600773.SH西藏城投2.12.20.00.91.4-0.590000909.SZ数源科技1.92.6-0.72.94.0-1.191600515.SH海航基础1.83.8-2.01.62.8-1.292000838.SZ财信发展1.61.30.30.00.3-0.493600791.SH京能置业1.56.7-5.21.32.9-1.794600684.SH

46、珠江实业1.59.9-8.42.13.2-1.195002285.SZ世联行1.27.2-6.01.25.7-4.596000667.SZ美好置业1.14.1-3.00.31.9-1.697600807.SHST 天业1.1-102.1103.12.20.12.198600082.SH海泰发展1.00.10.92.20.31.999002314.SZ南山控股1.03.4-2.41.43.9-2.6100600638.SH新黄浦0.82.9-2.11.43.0-1.6101600716.SH凤凰股份0.8-0.91.71.00.80.2102002305.SZ南国置业0.70.70.01.10.

47、21.0103600159.SH大龙地产0.5-1.41.90.5-1.11.7104000514.SZ渝开发0.40.40.00.91.3-0.4105600604.SH市北高新0.31.0-0.61.11.00.1106600095.SH哈高科0.3-0.40.71.2-2.84.0107000616.SZ海航投资-0.17.9-8.00.14.7-4.6108000965.SZ天保基建-0.67.2-7.70.35.7-5.5109600568.SH中珠医疗-0.70.4-1.1-1.10.3-1.4110000502.SZ绿景控股-0.928.2-29.1-1.423.5-24.911

48、1600683.SH京投发展-1.03.5-4.41.01.2-0.2112600503.SH华丽家族-1.01.0-1.90.01.1-1.1113000014.SZ沙河股份-1.30.3-1.6-1.30.6-2.0114000608.SZ阳光股份-1.5-0.2-1.3-21.50.7-22.2115000506.SZ中润资源-1.60.9-2.40.30.7-0.3116000809.SZ铁岭新城-1.60.4-2.00.10.8-0.7117600077.SH宋都股份-1.74.5-6.2-0.81.7-2.5118600463.SH空港股份-2.2-0.3-1.9-1.00.3-1

49、.3119000615.SZ京汉股份-2.30.3-2.60.60.10.4120000897.SZ*ST 津滨-3.2-3.2-0.1-1.4-1.0-0.4121002147.SZST 新光-3.51.5-5.01.02.2-1.2122000981.SZST 银亿-4.75.0-9.7-0.84.8-5.5123000558.SZ莱茵体育-4.91.5-6.3-1.71.6-3.3124000609.SZ中迪投资-5.3-0.4-4.9-4.7-0.7-4.0125000691.SZ亚太实业-8.014.4-22.4-4.910.8-15.7126600890.SH中房股份-9.0-11

50、.92.9-9.5-12.32.9127000918.SZ嘉凯城-13.6-11.3-2.31.6-1.32.8128000679.SZ大连友谊-16.4-12.5-3.90.30.10.2129600239.SH云南城投-21.14.3-25.40.43.1-2.7130600225.SH天津松江-24.4-17.6-6.81.11.7-0.6131600240.SH*ST 华业-2.0-94.9-6.9-88.0资料来源: Wind、 整理（以上数据仅作列示，不做推荐）负债水平保持稳定截至 2019 年三季度末，板块净负债率为 99.7%，较 2019 年中期下降 0.2 个百分点；剔除预

51、收账款后的资产负债率 59.5%，较 22019 年中期下降 1 个百分点，行业负债水平保持稳定；货币资金/（短期借款+一年内到期的非流动负债）为1.1，板块短期偿债能力维持稳定的水平。图 5：行业负债水平变化情况图 6：短期偿债能力变化情况板块净负债率板块剔除预收账款后的资产负债率板块短期偿债能力保障倍数120%100%80%60%40%20%0%64%62%60%58%56%54%52%50%48%46%1.71.61.51.41.31.21.11.02016/9/302017/6/302018/3/312018/12/312019/9/30资料来源: Wind、 整理资料来源: Wind

52、、 整理截至 2019 年三季度末，板块 131 家公司中，剔除预收款的资产负债率低于行业整体水平的占比 79%，净负债率低于行业整体水平的占比 72%，短期偿债能力高于 1 的占比 51%。表 4：房地产板块 2019 前三季负债水平及短期偿债能力一览证券代码证券简称净负债率剔除预收账款后的资产负债率短期偿债能力保障倍数1600215.SH长春经开-42.1%6.7%-2600641.SH万业企业-22.0%8.3%117.23600890.SH中房股份-33.9%9.0%-4600052.SH浙江广厦-53.1%9.2%-5000502.SZ绿景控股-35.2%13.7%295.76600

53、173.SH卧龙地产-110.2%16.5%-7600503.SH华丽家族8.2%16.6%88.38600568.SH中珠医疗-14.7%17.7%8.69000014.SZ沙河股份-14.1%17.8%6.810000631.SZ顺发恒业-96.6%19.0%131.311600095.SH哈高科-0.5%20.9%1.012600716.SH凤凰股份-2.8%21.2%-13002377.SZ国创高新-8.6%21.5%2.214000897.SZ*ST 津滨44.9%23.2%0.515002208.SZ合肥城建7.8%27.0%1.916000616.SZ海航投资-33.1%28.2

54、%19.717000029.SZ深深房 A-45.0%28.2%31.618000965.SZ天保基建13.2%28.4%4.919000514.SZ渝开发-7.7%29.1%18.020600246.SH万通地产3.3%32.5%11.521000718.SZ苏宁环球9.2%32.7%2.722600724.SH宁波富达20.3%33.4%1.523600647.SH同达创业-65.7%34.6%-24000863.SZ三湘印象48.9%34.6%1.225600007.SH中国国贸22.8%35.7%200.326000609.SZ中迪投资-4.6%36.0%-27000006.SZ深振业

55、 A-8.6%36.4%6.428600077.SH宋都股份11.3%37.4%10.529000615.SZ京汉股份36.4%37.5%0.730600159.SH大龙地产-22.3%38.1%-31000608.SZ阳光股份36.6%38.2%0.732600565.SH迪马股份64.7%38.4%0.833000517.SZ荣安地产60.6%38.5%2.034002244.SZ滨江集团62.6%38.6%1.935000667.SZ美好置业78.2%39.1%0.636603506.SH南都物业-38.0%39.4%-37600048.SH保利地产82.3%40.4%2.3386006

56、49.SH城投控股38.9%40.7%1.639000838.SZ财信发展141.1%41.0%0.540000573.SZ粤宏远 A1.7%41.1%2.841600510.SH黑牡丹21.9%41.6%1.742601155.SH新城控股61.6%41.8%1.743600064.SH南京高科1.2%41.9%0.944600463.SH空港股份32.1%42.0%0.445000036.SZ华联控股-61.5%42.2%-46600082.SH海泰发展31.6%42.3%0.247002133.SZ广宇集团28.2%43.0%2.648002147.SZST 新光40.8%43.2%0.

57、049002016.SZ世荣兆业-41.4%43.3%3.750000011.SZ深物业 A-39.3%43.5%-51600638.SH新黄浦30.9%43.7%-52000961.SZ中南建设175.6%44.1%1.653000809.SZ铁岭新城70.0%44.6%0.054000560.SZ我爱我家-1.6%44.8%1.755000691.SZ亚太实业-3.3%44.9%1.656600094.SH大名城57.0%45.0%1.157600748.SH上实发展82.3%47.0%0.858000537.SZ广宇发展138.0%47.0%0.859600466.SH蓝光发展102.1

58、%47.3%1.560002146.SZ荣盛发展98.7%47.6%0.861000981.SZST 银亿67.1%47.7%0.162600177.SH雅戈尔59.1%47.9%0.863000558.SZ莱茵体育59.6%48.0%0.464600067.SH冠城大通59.4%48.0%0.865000534.SZ万泽股份40.4%48.0%0.766000656.SZ金科股份144.3%48.0%1.167000002.SZ万科 A50.4%49.2%1.768601588.SH北辰实业78.8%49.3%2.169600658.SH电子城52.1%49.4%0.970002314.SZ

59、南山控股46.8%49.5%1.671600383.SH金地集团60.1%49.8%2.072001979.SZ招商蛇口62.4%50.1%1.373600657.SH信达地产105.4%50.5%0.874000090.SZ天健集团26.3%51.1%2.175600675.SH中华企业13.7%51.1%5.176000506.SZ中润资源38.5%51.2%0.277000042.SZ中洲控股91.1%51.3%1.378600162.SH香江控股44.4%51.5%1.679600515.SH海航基础18.3%51.6%1.380600606.SH绿地控股173.0%51.6%0.98

60、1600622.SH光大嘉宝49.2%52.8%2.882600791.SH京能置业75.8%53.1%0.483000736.SZ中交地产150.3%54.1%2.784000056.SZ皇庭国际78.2%54.1%0.185000797.SZ中国武夷75.1%54.3%0.586600895.SH张江高科71.8%54.3%0.687600639.SH浦东金桥72.1%54.3%0.688600736.SH苏州高新66.4%54.5%2.689600692.SH亚通股份52.1%54.6%0.790002285.SZ世联行2.5%54.6%1.191600340.SH华夏幸福202.8%5