春天洗礼：估值模型更新

1、Global Research20 March 2019EquitiesAmericas Electric UtilitiesDaniel Ford, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:dan.ford dan.ford+1-212-713-2224Ross Fowler, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:ross.fowler ross.fowler+1-212-713-1287Gregg OrrillAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:gregg.orrill gregg.orrill+1-212-713 1064Rose-Lyn

2、n ArmstrongAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:rose-lynn.armstrong rose-lynn.armstrong+1-212-713 2108Spring CleaningValuation Model RefreshNew 5 Year EPS Growth Rates to 2023We have updated our models for 2018-2023. We see median utility, parent and other (UP&O) EPS growth of 5.8%. Top quartile 5 year EPS grow

3、th begins at 6.8%.Regulatory Rankings UpdatedWe have updated our North America Regulatory Rankings for recent rate decisions and legislative/policy changes. The biggest moves up in our regulatory ranking belonged to Georgia, Mississippi and West Virginia and notable moves down were California, Kansa

4、s, and New York.A 5% Premium Awarded for Performance Consistency against EPS Guidance Over the last 10 years, top quartile companies with regard to beating or meeting initial EPS guidance delivered an annualized total return advantage of 1.7% versus the S&P 500 and 5.7% versus the XLU. The average u

5、tility trailed the S&P by 3.7% and was in line with the XLU (0%) over the same period. As defensive investments, we believe that companies known to consistently deliver against expectations will continue to be awarded a valuation premium. The Utilities in the top-quartile that will now receive a 5%

6、premium in our valuation methodology for reliability are: AWK, CMS, DTE, PEG, WEC and XEL.Recommendations:Based on our refreshed work our favorites are Emera in Canada, Integrated Utility Exelon, IPP Vistra Energy, Regulated Utility Entergy, High Growth Multi Utility NextEra Energy, Value Utility Fi

7、rstEnergy, and Water Company Aqua America on the upgrade to Buy - HYPERLINK /shared/d2AWLO0VBXR8 Upgrade to Buy: Closing in on the Catalyst - 3/19/19. HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES

8、BEGIN ON PAGE 25. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisWe updated our models for 2018 to 2

9、023 and that impacts our estimates and growth rates. Figure 1 shows the new growth rates and regulatory rankings. Figure 2 is a Utility and Power valuation sort. Figure 6 provides more detail on the EPS estimate changes.Figure 1: Regulated Utility Forecast ChangesRatingTickerCompanyPrice TargetOld P

10、rice Target5 Yr EPSGrowth 18-23Old 5 Yr EPSGrowth 17-22Regulatory QuartileOld Regulatory QuartileNeutralAESAES Corp.$18$187.6%9.3%2nd2ndNeutralLNTAlliant Energy$47$454.6%6.0%2nd1stNeutralAEEAmeren Corp$76$725.9%7.6%2nd2ndBuyAEPAmerican Electric Power$89$895.5%6.2%1st2ndSellAWRAmerican States Water$5

11、7$527.5%5.1%3rd3rdBuyAWKAmerican Water$123$1148.2%8.3%1st1stBuyWTRAqua America$42$426.4%6.4%1st1stBuyACOATCO Ltd. (C$)$54$503.8%3.6%4th4thSellCWTCalifornia Water Service$44$455.7%5.7%3rd3rdNeutralCUCanadian Utilities Ltd (C$)$38$363.8%1.6%4th4thNeutralCUPCaribbean Utilities Corp Ltd$15$365.6%5.5%3rd

12、2ndNeutralCMSCMS Energy$61$576.8%7.0%1st1stSellCTWSConnecticut Water Service$67$636.7%5.3%3rd3rdNeutralEDConsolidated Edison$88$874.6%4.2%4th4thBuyDDominion Energy$89$825.0%6.7%1st1stNeutralDTEDTE Energy$132$1223.8%6.1%1st1stBuyDUKDuke Energy$105$1005.0%5.2%1st1stNeutralEIXEdison International$69$63

13、4.9%4.4%4th3rdBuyEMAEmera Inc (C$)$55$523.4%3.9%1st2ndBuyETREntergy Corp$107$1035.9%5.8%2nd2ndNeutralEVRGEvergy$58$605.0%7.6%3rd3rdBuyESEversource Energy$81$715.9%5.6%2nd3rdBuyEXCExelon$56$531.8%1.6%3rd3rdBuyFEFirstEnergy Corp$47$451.9%2.2%2nd2ndBuyFTSFortis Inc (C$)$55$546.1%5.6%3rd3rdSellHEHawaiia

14、n Electric Industries$34$324.8%6.0%4th4thSellHHydro One Ltd (C$)$19$192.5%4.5%4th4thBuyNEENextEra Energy$225$2177.7%9.5%1st1stNeutralOGEOGE Energy Corp$42$403.7%4.9%4th4thNeutral (CBE)PCGPG&E Corp$20$16-12.9%-12.1%4th3rdNeutralPNWPinnacle West Capital Corp$103$976.9%6.1%4th4thSellPNMPNM Resources$46

15、$435.3%4.3%4th4thSellPORPortland General$49$484.9%4.5%3rd2ndBuyPPLPPL Corporation$37$342.4%3.2%2nd1stBuyPEGPublic Service Ent Group$65$655.8%5.9%2nd2ndBuySRESempra Energy$141$1299.3%8.0%3rd3rdNeutralSOSouthern Company$54$503.9%3.2%1st1stNeutralWECWEC Energy Group$81$786.0%6.0%1st1stNeutralXELXcel En

16、ergy$59$555.6%6.1%2nd2ndSource: UBS estimatesFigure 2: UBS Utility and Power Valuation SortTotal 3/18/2019PriceReturn inc.RatingTickerCompanyPriceTargetDiv. YldUBS 2018A UBS 2019E UBS 2020E UBS 2021E EPSEPSEPSEPS20202020 P/E Prem/ RatioDisc20212021 P/E Prem/ RatioDiscCurrentDividend5 Yr EPS 5 Yr DPS

17、 Regulatory YieldGrowth GrowthQuartileBuyACO ATCO Ltd. (C$)$44.85$5423%$3.09$3.22$3.29$3.4313.6x(25%)13.1x(24%)3.6%3.8%5.8%4thBuyDUK Duke Energy$90.06$10521%$4.75$4.97$5.27$5.5717.1x(8%)16.2x(8%)4.1%5.0%4.0%1stBuyDDominion Energy$76.61$8921%$4.08$4.22$4.40$4.6517.4x(7%)16.5x(6%)4.8%5.0%4.3%1stBuyNEE

18、NextEra Energy$190.87$22521%$7.77$8.43$9.08$9.8421.0 x13%19.4x11%2.6%7.7%10.0%1stBuyPPLPPL Corporation$32.72$3718%$2.38$2.40$2.51$2.5313.1x(30%)12.9x(26%)5.0%2.4%1.9%2ndBuyEMA Emera Inc (C$)$48.87$5517%$2.88$2.80$2.83$3.0217.3x(5%)16.2x(5%)4.9%3.4%4.3%1stBuyETREntergy Corp$94.49$10717%$4.70$5.30$5.5

19、1$5.8217.2x(8%)16.2x(7%)3.9%5.9%2.3%2ndBuyFEFirstEnergy Corp$41.24$4717%$2.60$2.57$2.52$2.6016.4x(12%)15.8x(10%)3.7%1.9%3.7%2ndBuyFTSFortis Inc (C$)$48.91$5516%$2.51$2.54$2.73$2.9317.9x(2%)16.7x(2%)3.7%6.1%6.0%3rdBuyESEversource Energy$71.26$8116%$3.25$3.46$3.67$3.8719.4x4%18.4x5%3.0%5.9%5.9%2ndBuyS

20、RESempra Energy$124.65$14116%$5.46$5.89$6.99$7.5517.8x(4%)16.5x(6%)3.1%9.3%8.1%3rdBuyEXCExelon$49.67$5615%$3.14$3.10$3.03$3.0716.4x(12%)16.2x(8%)2.9%1.8%5.3%3rdNeutralCMS CMS Energy$55.32$6113%$2.33$2.51$2.68$2.9020.7x11%19.1x9%2.8%6.8%7.0%1stNeutralEIXEdison International$63.52$6912%$4.09$4.21$4.29

21、$4.6214.8x(21%)13.8x(21%)3.9%4.9%0.2%4thBuyPEGPublic Service Ent Group$59.61$6512%$3.12$3.22$3.59$3.6716.6x(11%)16.3x(7%)3.2%5.8%5.0%2ndNeutralPNW Pinnacle West Capital Corp$95.28$10311%$4.54$4.94$5.28$5.6018.0 x(3%)17.0 x(3%)3.1%6.9%6.0%4thNeutralDTEDTE Energy$123.34$13210%$6.30$6.29$6.65$7.0118.6x

22、(0%)17.6x0%3.1%3.8%7.0%1stNeutralCUCanadian Utilities Ltd (C$)$36.06$3810%$2.15$2.21$2.28$2.3815.8x(13%)15.2x(11%)4.6%3.8%5.2%4thBuyAEPAmerican Electric Power$83.48$8910%$3.95$4.18$4.46$4.7718.7x0%17.5x(0%)3.2%5.5%7.0%1stNeutralSOSouthern Company$51.78$549%$3.07$3.03$3.21$3.3516.1x(14%)15.4x(12%)4.8

23、%3.9%3.2%1stNeutralXELXcel Energy$56.12$598%$2.47$2.60$2.77$2.9520.3x9%19.0 x9%2.9%5.6%6.0%2ndNeutralEDConsolidated Edison$84.70$887%$4.33$4.35$4.74$4.9017.9x(4%)17.3x(1%)3.5%4.6%3.0%4thNeutralAEEAmeren Corp$72.51$767%$3.37$3.25$3.47$3.8620.9x12%18.8x7%2.6%5.9%6.0%2ndNeutralWEC WEC Energy Group$78.3

24、9$817%$3.34$3.54$3.74$3.9721.0 x13%19.8x13%3.0%6.0%6.3%1stNeutralEVRG Evergy$56.87$585%$2.67$2.83$3.07$3.2718.5x(1%)17.4x(1%)3.3%5.0%6.2%3rdNeutral (CBE)PCGPG&E Corp$19.43$203%$4.00$3.31$1.87$1.9010.4x(44%)10.2x(42%)0.0%-12.9%0.0%4thNeutralLNTAlliant Energy$47.10$473%$2.19$2.26$2.49$2.5618.9x2%18.4x

25、5%3.0%4.6%6.0%2ndNeutralCUPCaribbean Utilities Corp Ltd$15.19$153%$0.78$0.82$0.85$0.9117.8x(2%)16.7x(2%)4.6%5.6%4.6%3rdNeutralAESAES Corp.$18.15$182%$1.24$1.33$1.46$1.6112.4x(33%)11.3x(36%)3.0%7.6%6.0%2ndNeutralOGE OGE Energy Corp$42.85$421%$2.12$2.13$2.32$2.4018.5x(1%)17.8x2%3.4%3.7%7.0%4thSellPNM

26、PNM Resources$47.44$46(0%)$1.99$2.16$2.24$2.4021.2x14%19.8x13%2.4%5.3%9.3%4thSellHHydro One Ltd (C$)$20.43$19(2%)$1.35$1.30$1.33$1.3615.3x(18%)15.0 x(15%)4.8%2.5%4.7%4thSellPORPortland General$51.86$49(4%)$2.37$2.48$2.60$2.7419.9x7%18.9x8%2.8%4.9%6.0%3rdSellHEHawaiian Electric Industries$40.59$34(14

27、%)$1.87$1.95$2.05$2.1619.8x6%18.8x7%3.2%4.8%3.2%4thOverall Average (unnormalized, inc. Gas Midstream)17.9x16.9xElectric Utility Normalized (including Gas Midstream)18.6x17.5xWaterBuyWTR Aqua America$36.00$4219%$1.41$1.48$1.58$1.6822.9x(17%)21.5x(16%)2.4%6.4%7.0%1stBuyAWK American Water$105.13$12319%

28、$3.30$3.57$3.85$4.1727.3x(1%)25.2x(1%)1.7%8.2%10.0%1stSellCTWS Connecticut Water Service$67.75$671%$2.29$2.39$2.53$2.7726.7x(3%)24.5x(4%)1.8%6.7%5.0%3rdSellCWT California Water Service$54.01$44(17%)$1.44$1.39$1.61$1.7033.6x22%31.8x24%1.5%5.7%5.0%3rdSellAWR American States Water$71.29$57(19%)$1.73$1.

29、98$2.08$2.2034.3x25%32.4x27%1.5%7.5%6.0%3rd27.5x25.6xNorth America IPPsTotal 3/18/2019PriceReturn inc.RatingTickerCompanyPriceTargetDiv. YldUBS 2018E UBS 2019E UBS 2020E UBS 2021E EBITDAEBITDAEBITDAEBITDA2020 EV/2020EBITDAPrem/RatioDisc2021 EV/20212019E NetEBITDAPrem/Debt/ RatioDiscEBITDABuyVSTVistr

30、a Energy Corp$25.79$3538%$2,760$3,272$3,152$2,6635.7x(21%)6.2x(9%)2.9xBuyNRG NRG Energy$41.88$4713%$1,300$1,917$1,741$1,7337.2x1%6.9x2%2.0 xMID-CYCLE MEDIAN7.2x6.8xSource: UBS estimates, FactSet, S&P Global Market IntelligenceSpring Cleaning 20 March 2019 3Updated UBS Regulatory RankingsWe are updat

31、ing our regulatory rankings and Figure 3 shows our new bell curve ranking. Since our last update in November HYPERLINK /shared/d2yB8rr6N3 Roll On-11/29/18 the rankings reflect 2018 information on rates from EIA, on rate cases, regulatory metrics and the subjective rating. The states in green that ha

32、d the biggest improvement since our last update and the states in red that fell the most in our ranking.Our regulatory rankings consider 6 factors in a simple average: 1) Appointed or elected commissions; 2) Allowed return spread history, 3) Mechanisms that reduce regulatory lag; 4) Rates and custom

33、er levels compared to region; 5) Tendency to settle versus litigate rate cases; and 6) A subjective investor friendliness factor.Drivers for ImprovementGeorgia: Lower average rates (21st versus 24th previously) and an improvement in the subjective rating which factors in SOs Georgia Power Vogtle nuc

34、lear construction.Mississippi: The main driver was an improvement in the subjective rating.West Virginia: Higher ROE spreads in rate case decisions moved West Virginia into the second quintile from the third.Figure 3: UBS Regulatory RankingsTIER 1TIER 2TIER 3TIER 4TIER 5PotentialNova ScotiaKentuckyF

35、ERCNorth DakotaSouth CarolinaWashingtonMissouriOregonPennsylvaniaMassachusettsDelawareMinnesotaIllinoisNew JerseyMississippiArkansasWyomingKansasFloridaBritish ColumbiaRhode IslandNew HampshireNevadaGeorgiaIndianaTennesseeOklahomaOntarioMichiganOhioAlbertaAlaskaNew MexicoWisconsinVirginiaNewfoundlan

36、d & LabradorArizonaNew YorkAlabamaLouisianaPrince Edward IslandSouth DakotaMontanaColoradoIdahoWest VirginiaCaliforniaDistrict of ColumbiaNorth CarolinaTexasConnecticutHawaiiMaineUtahIowaNebraskaMarylandVermontSource: Canadian Provincial Regulatory Websites, S&P Global Market Intelligence, FactSet,

37、JD Power, UBS Equity ResearchDrivers for degradationCalifornia: Other states passed California in terms of cost reduction dropping the state into the fourth quintile. Regulatory uncertainty led to a downgrade in our subjective rating to a 5 from a 4.Kansas: An increase in regulatory lag to 6 months

38、on average to decide a case versus 5 months previously dropped Kansas to the second quintile. We also lowered the subjective rating to a 4 from a 3 following the Evergy merger.New York: We lowered the subjective rating to a 4 from a 3 with the uncertainty of alternative regulation. New York is above

39、 only one other state in allowed ROE spreads in the country.Here are the companies by their weighted average regulatory jurisdiction based on our 2021 EPS estimates. The regulatory ranking is on 1 to 57 scale including the 50 United States, the District of Columbia, FERC, Canadian and other regions.

40、Figure 4: Weighted Average Regulatory Ranking by Company50454035302520151050NEE CMS DTE WEC SO DUK EMA AEP D LNT AES AEE PEG PPL FE ETR XEL ES WTR FTS POR AWK EXC CUP EVRG SRE ACO CU PCG EIX PNW PNMCTWS OGE CWT AWR HE EDHSource: UBS equity researchFigure 5: Regulated Utility Quartiles1st2nd3rd4thMet

41、ricQuartileQuartileQuartileQuartileRatebase Growth 18-236.9%6.7%4.7%6.2% Price/Book2.33x2.47x1.80 x1.76xEarned ROE10.7%10.7%9.3%9.3%Source: UBS Equity Research, FactSet, S&P Global Market Intelligence2018-2023 Estimates and Growth RatesNow that the companies have released 2018 results we can update

42、our valuation methodologies. We have updated growth rates through 2023 and below are the changes.Figure 6: EPS Estimate ChangesEPS Estimate ChangesCompanyTicker2019E2020ENew2021E2022E2023E2019E2020EOld2021E2022E2023EU.S. and Canadian Regulated Electric UtilitiesATCO Ltd. (C$)ACO$3.22$3.29$3.43$3.58$

43、3.73$3.13$3.20$3.34$3.49Alliant EnergyLNT$2.26$2.49$2.56$2.72$2.74$2.25$2.37$2.51$2.58$2.59Ameren CorpAEE$3.25$3.47$3.86$4.11$4.50$3.25$3.47$3.86$4.08$4.42Canadian Utilities Ltd (C$)CU$2.21$2.28$2.38$2.48$2.59$2.15$2.21$2.31$2.41Caribbean Utilities Corp LtdCUP$0.82$0.85$0.91$0.97$1.02$0.82$0.78$0.91

44、$0.97$1.02Dominion EnergyD$4.22$4.40$4.65$4.92$5.20$4.22$4.40$4.69$4.97DTE EnergyDTE$6.29$6.65$7.01$7.26$7.58$6.32$6.62$7.01$7.51$8.13Duke EnergyDUK$4.97$5.27$5.57$5.91$6.06$4.97$5.27$5.56$5.88Edison InternationalEIX$4.21$4.29$4.62$4.94$5.19$4.51$4.87$5.19$5.50$5.74Emera Inc (C$)EMA$2.80$2.83$3.02$3

45、.22$3.41$2.81$2.97$3.20$3.36Entergy CorpETR$5.30$5.51$5.82$6.05$6.27$5.30$5.51$5.82$6.05Eversource EnergyES$3.46$3.67$3.87$4.08$4.33$3.46$3.67$3.87$4.08$4.33ExelonEXC$3.10$3.03$3.07$3.19$3.44$3.16$3.12$3.11$3.34Fortis Inc (C$)FTS$2.54$2.73$2.93$3.15$3.37$2.64$2.83$3.03$3.24Hawaiian Electric Industri

46、esHE$1.95$2.05$2.16$2.27$2.36$1.95$2.05$2.12$2.21Hydro One Ltd (C$)H$1.30$1.33$1.36$1.44$1.53$1.30$1.34$1.40$1.45NextEra EnergyNEE$8.43$9.08$9.84$10.55$11.25$8.43$9.08$9.84$10.55PNM ResourcesPNM$2.16$2.24$2.40$2.49$2.58$2.14$2.21$2.35$2.39PPL CorporationPPL$2.40$2.51$2.53$2.62$2.69$2.40$2.53$2.56$2.

47、63$2.49Sempra EnergySRE$5.89$6.99$7.55$7.97$8.51$5.89$6.99$7.55$7.97Southern CompanySO$3.03$3.21$3.35$3.54$3.73$3.04$3.17$3.30$3.52WEC Energy GroupWEC$3.54$3.74$3.97$4.21$4.47$3.54$3.74$3.97$4.21Xcel EnergyXEL$2.60$2.77$2.95$3.11$3.25$2.60$2.77$2.95$3.09WaterAmerican States WaterAWR$1.98$2.08$2.20$2

48、.35$2.48$1.93$2.04$2.15$2.28American WaterAWK$3.57$3.85$4.17$4.52$4.90$3.57$3.85$4.17$4.52California Water Service GroupCWT$1.39$1.61$1.70$1.80$1.90$1.39$1.61$1.70$1.80$1.90Connecticut Water ServiceCTWS$2.39$2.53$2.77$2.97$3.17$2.32$2.48$2.69$2.85Source: Company reports, UBS estimatesOur utility val

49、uation methodology utilizes 5 year utility, parent and other EPS growth as an input. Top quartile growth begins at 6.8% while median growth is 5.8% which is unchanged since November.Figure 7: Regulated Utility EPS Growth QuartilesQualityLowHighCurrent CurrentCurrentPrem/Disc Quartile Growth Growth G

50、rowth P/E Ratio Prem/Disc in Methodology1st6.8%8.7%7.7%18.1x3.3%5%2nd5.7%6.7%6.2%18.1x3.4%2%3rd4.6%5.7%5.2%16.8x-4.3%-2%4th1.9%4.4%3.0%15.1x-13.6%-5%Source: UBS, FactSetFor a utility rate base growth tracks earnings growth adjusted for capital raising.Figure 8: Rate base Growth 2018-2023E9%8%7%6%5%4

51、%3%2%1%0%AEE LNT CWT NEE AWR ETR PEG WEC AEP SRE EXC PCG EMA CMS D XEL FECTWS PNM ED DTE ES SO EIX DUK HE AWK WTR FTS PNW PPL POR AES OGE EVRGSource: Company reports, UBSConsistency Rating Added to Valuation MatrixWe are adding a valuation advantage for those in the first quartile for performance ag

52、ainst initial EPS guidance. The strongest get a 5% premium and the rest are about average. The top quartile companies are American Water Company, CMS Energy, DTE Energy, Public Service Enterprise Group, WEC Energy, and Xcel Energy.Figure 9 shows that over the last 10 years companies that have the be

53、st track record for beating or meeting guidance outperform the XLU by 5.7% and the S&P 500 by 1.7% on an annualized and compounded basis.Figure 9: 10 Year Annualized Total Return Ranked by Beating/Meeting Initial EPS Guidance% Time Beat% Time Beat/Meet% Beat Estsvs S&P 500vs XLU1st85.0%100.0%2.9%1.7

54、%5.7%2nd81.4%85.4%7.5%-4.5%-0.6%3rd57.1%71.3%3.4%-8.4%-4.9%4th44.3%50.6%4.5%-2.9%0.7%Average66.3%76.0%4.7%-3.7%0.0%Source: FactSet, UBSFigure 10: 10 Year Track Record and Total Return Against Initial Earnings Guidance% Time Beat% Time Beat/Meet% Beat Estsvs. S&P 500vs. XLUBeatMissMeetAverage66%76%4.

55、7%-3.7%0.0%721CMS100%100%0.7%5.5%9.2%1000DTE100%100%6.0%2.0%7.2%1000WEC100%100%2.7%3.1%6.7%1000XEL80%100%1.6%-2.0%3.7%802PEG70%100%3.4%-7.8%-4.4%703AWK60%100%3.3%9.6%11.7%602ETR90%90%16.4%-15.2%-9.6%910PNM90%90%18.4%3.1%6.5%910AEE80%90%5.0%-4.2%1.2%811SO70%88%2.3%-3.7%-5.1%710AEP80%80%2.9%-4.1%1.6%8

56、20ED80%80%3.0%-3.6%-0.6%820SRE80%80%4.7%-3.4%1.7%820DUK70%80%3.3%-6.8%-1.1%721NEE60%80%1.8%0.0%3.5%622FE70%70%5.4%-18.0%-15.2%730PNW70%70%2.3%0.9%3.9%730EXC60%70%4.4%-26.5%-20.9%631WTR20%67%0.6%-6.5%-7.8%210EVRG50%63%6.4%-1.9%3.4%530ES60%60%3.5%-2.3%2.8%640OGE60%60%8.5%-0.4%5.0%640LNT50%60%3.9%3.6%6

57、.9%541HE30%50%3.0%-7.6%-4.9%330POR40%44%8.9%-3.3%1.9%450AES40%40%3.2%-10.0%-6.9%460D30%40%0.8%-0.6%0.0%361Note: % Time Beat is of last 10 years and % Time Beat/Meet is based on total years giving guidance.Source: UBS, FactSetFigure 11: Regulated Valuation Methodology MatrixInvestment OpinionTickerOv

58、erall Reg Group Premium DiscountRegulatory Quartile Premium DiscountRegulated EPS Growth Premium DiscountESGPremiumEPS Guidance Reliablity AdjustmentsFair Value State PremiumSpecific AdjustmentsNet Prem/Disc Regulated ValuationBusiness ValueNeutralAES5%2%5%12%$11BuyACO10%(5%)(5%)(5%)(5%)$5NeutralLNT

59、5%2%(2%)5%$0NeutralAEE5%2%5%12%$0BuyAEP5%5%2%12%$0NeutralCU10%(5%)(5%)(5%)(5%)$0NeutralCUP5%(2%)(2%)(5%)(4%)$0NeutralCMS5%5%5%5%20%$0NeutralED5%(5%)(5%)8%3%$0BuyD5%5%5%15%$36NeutralDTE5%5%2%5%17%$31BuyDUK5%5%(2%)8%$0Neutral (CBE)EIX5%(5%)(5%)(10%)(29%)$0BuyEMA10%5%2%(10%)7%$2BuyETR5%2%(2%)5%$0BuyES5

60、%2%2%10%19%$0NeutralEVRG5%(2%)(2%)1%$0BuyEXC5%(2%)5%8%$15BuyFE5%2%(5%)2%$0BuyFTS10%(2%)2%10%$0SellHE5%(5%)2%2%$7SellH10%(5%)(5%)(15%)(15%)$0BuyNEE5%5%5%15%$107NeutralOGE5%(5%)(5%)(5%)$11Neutral (CBE)PCG5%(5%)(5%)(5%)$0NeutralPNW5%(5%)5%5%$0SellPNM5%(5%)2%8%10%$0SellPOR5%(2%)(2%)1%$0BuyPPL5%2%(2%)5%$