能源行业：处于发展中

1、Photo Source: BrandNetEnergy in 2020: Evolving19 December 2019Equity Research GlobalResearch AnalystsBill Featherston+1 212 325 6283Betty Jiang+1 212 325 6259Michael Weinstein+1 212 325 0897Jacob Lundberg+1 212 325 6785Andrew Kuske+1 416 352 4561Horace Tse+852 2101 7379 HYPERLINK mailto:william.feat

2、herston william.featherston HYPERLINK mailto:betty.jiang betty.jiang HYPERLINK mailto:w.weinstein einstein HYPERLINK mailto:jacob.lundberg jacob.lundberg HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.kuske andrew.kuske HYPERLINK mailto:horace.tse horace.tseThomas Adolff+44 20 7888 9114Spiro Dounis+1 212 325 3463Manav Gup

3、ta+1 212 325 6617David Farrell+44 20 7888 1515Regis Cardoso+55 11 3701 6297Saul Kavonic+61 2 8205 4253 HYPERLINK mailto:thomas.adolff thomas.adolff HYPERLINK mailto:spiro.dounis spiro.dounis HYPERLINK mailto:manav.gupta manav.gupta HYPERLINK mailto:david.farrell david.farrell HYPERLINK mailto:regis.

4、cardoso regis.cardoso HYPERLINK mailto:saul.kavonic saul.kavonicDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OFNON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies c

5、overed in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that theTable of ContentsKey Energy Themes for 20205Global Oil Macro12US Natural Gas Macro19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Global LNG Market22European Natural Gas Macro25 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Global Refining27 HYPERLINK l _TOC_25000

6、3 Global Integrated Oils29US E&Ps35US Oil & Gas Royalty Minerals41US Oilfield Services45US Midstream & MLPs52 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 US Refining60US Utilities and Alternative Energy63European Oilfield Services69Canadian Infrastructure & Utilities74 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Latin America Oil & Gas81A

7、sia Oil & Gas89Australia Oil & Gas94 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 HOLT97Credit Suisse Global Energy TeamUNITED STATESEUROPEIntegrated OilsIntegrated Oils & RefinersBill Featherston (New York)+1 212 325 6283 HYPERLINK mailto:william.featherston william.featherstonThomas Adolff (London)+44 20 7888 9114 HYP

8、ERLINK mailto:thomas.adolff thomas.adolffBill Janela (New York)+1 212 325 2646 HYPERLINK mailto:william.janela william.janelaAra Kosyan (London)+44 20 7888 1427 HYPERLINK mailto:ara.kosyan ara.kosyanMike Ziffer (New York)+1 212 538 0568 HYPERLINK mailto:michael.ziffer michael.zifferIntegrated Oils,

9、Refiners, ESG & ThemesChristopher Zhang (New York)Exploration & Production+1 212 325 4431 HYPERLINK mailto:chris.zhang chris.zhangArjun Saini (London)Oilfield Services+44 20 7888 1553 HYPERLINK mailto:arjun.saini arjun.sainiBill Featherston (New York)+1 212 325 6283 HYPERLINK mailto:william.feathers

10、ton william.featherstonDavid Farrell (London)+44 20 7888 1515 HYPERLINK mailto:david.farrell david.farrellBetty Jiang (New York)+1 212 325 6259 HYPERLINK mailto:betty.jiang betty.jiangChintan Khamar (London)+44 20 7883 2868 HYPERLINK mailto:chintan.khamar chintan.khamarBill Janela (New York)+1 212 3

11、25 2646 HYPERLINK mailto:william.janela william.janelaUtilitiesMike Ziffer (New York)+1 212 538 0568 HYPERLINK mailto:michael.ziffer michael.zifferStefano Bezzato (London)+44 20 7883 8062 HYPERLINK mailto:stefano.bezzato stefano.bezzatoChristopher Zhang (New York)+1 212 325 4431 HYPERLINK mailto:chr

12、is.zhang chris.zhangMark Freshney (London)+44 20 7888 0887 HYPERLINK mailto:mark.freshney mark.freshneyChris Baker (New York)+1 212 325 6375 HYPERLINK mailto:chris.baker chris.bakerVincent Gilles (London)+44 20 7888 1926 HYPERLINK mailto:vincent.gilles vincent.gillesVictor Prado (New York)Oilfield S

13、ervicesJacob Lundberg (New York)+1 212 325 4632+1 212 325 6785 HYPERLINK mailto:victor.prado victor.prado HYPERLINK mailto:jacob.lundberg jacob.lundbergWanda Serwinowska (London)RUSSIA/EMERGING EUROPE+44 20 7888 8030 HYPERLINK mailto:wanda.serwinowska wanda.serwinowskaRadi Sultan (New York)Utilities

14、+1 212 538 8137 HYPERLINK mailto:radi.sultan radi.sultanOil & GasOnur Muminoglu (Istanbul)+90 212 349 0454 HYPERLINK mailto:onur.muminoglu onur.muminogluMichael Weinstein (New York)+1 212 325 0897 HYPERLINK mailto:w.weinstein w.weinsteinThomas Adolff (London)+44 20 7888 9114 HYPERLINK mailto:thomas.

15、adolff thomas.adolffMaheep Mandloi (New York)+1 212 325 2345 HYPERLINK mailto:maheep.mandloi maheep.mandloiAra Kosyan (London)+44 20 7888 1427 HYPERLINK mailto:ara.kosyan ara.kosyanAndres Sheppard (New York)Midstream+1 212 538 2306 HYPERLINK mailto:andres.sheppard andres.sheppardAUSTRALIASpiro Douni

16、s (New York)+1 212 325 3463 HYPERLINK mailto:spiro.dounis spiro.dounisEquipment & ServicesJohn MacKay (New York)+1 212 325 6242 HYPERLINK mailto:john.mackay john.mackaySam Webb (Sydney)+61 2 8205 4535 HYPERLINK mailto:sam.webb sam.webbDoug Irwin (New York)+1 212 325 6850 HYPERLINK mailto:douglas.irw

17、in.2 douglas.irwin.2Oil & GasChad Bryant (New York)+1 212 325 4938 HYPERLINK mailto:charles.bryant charles.bryantSaul Kavonic (Sydney)+61 2 8205 4253 HYPERLINK mailto:saul.kavonic saul.kavonicRefinersPeter Wilson (Sydney)+61 2 8205 4107 HYPERLINK mailto:peter.wilson.2 peter.wilson.2Manav Gupta (New

18、York)+1 212 325 6617 HYPERLINK mailto:manav.gupta manav.guptaSam Webb (Sydney)+61 2 8205 4535 HYPERLINK mailto:sam.webb sam.webbRenewables & Alternative EnergyPeter Liu (Sydney)+61 2 8205 4071 HYPERLINK mailto:peter.liu peter.liuMichael Weinstein (New York)+1 212 325 0897 HYPERLINK mailto:w.weinstei

19、n w.weinsteinGrant Saligari (Melbourne)+61 3 9280 1720 HYPERLINK mailto:grant.saligari grant.saligariMaheep Mandloi (New York)+1 212 325 2345 HYPERLINK mailto:maheep.mandloi maheep.mandloiUtilitiesAndres Sheppard (New York)US Sales SpecialistJonathan Sisto (New York)+1 212 538 2306+1 212 325 1292 HY

20、PERLINK mailto:andres.sheppard andres.sheppard HYPERLINK mailto:jonathan.sisto jonathan.sistoPeter Wilson (Sydney)ASIA-PACIFIC+61 2 8205 4107 HYPERLINK mailto:peter.wilson.2 peter.wilson.2Oil & GasCANADAHorace Tse (Hong Kong)+852 2101 7379 HYPERLINK mailto:horace.tse horace.tseCanadian Infrastructur

21、eKaylee Xu (Hong Kong)+852 2101 6197 HYPERLINK mailto:kaylee.xu kaylee.xuAndrew Kuske (Toronto)+1 416 352 4561 HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.kuske andrew.kuskeAnubhav Aggarwal (Mumbai)+91 22 6777 3808 HYPERLINK mailto:anubhav.aggarwal anubhav.aggarwalHamza Aziz (Toronto)+1 416 352 4589 HYPERLINK mailto:ha

22、mza.aziz hamza.azizHoonsik Min (Seoul)+82 2 3707 3761 HYPERLINK mailto:hoonsik.min hoonsik.minJames Aldis (Toronto)+1 416 352 4595 HYPERLINK mailto:james.aldis james.aldisPoom Suvarnatemee (Bangkok)+66 2 614 6210 HYPERLINK mailto:paworamon.suvarnatemee paworamon.suvarnatemeeIntegrated OilsGerald Won

23、g (Singapore)+65 6212 3037 HYPERLINK mailto:gerald.wong gerald.wongManav Gupta (New York)+1 212 325 6617 HYPERLINK mailto:manav.gupta manav.guptaDanny Chan (Kuala Lumpur)Utilities+60 3 2723 2082 HYPERLINK mailto:danny.chan danny.chanLATIN AMERICADave Dai (Hong Kong)+852 2101 7358 HYPERLINK mailto:da

24、ve.dai dave.daiGas & PowerGary Zhou (Hong Kong)+852 2101 6648 HYPERLINK mailto:gary.zhou gary.zhouVanessa Quiroga (Mexico)+52 55 5283 8939 HYPERLINK mailto:vanessa.quiroga vanessa.quirogaLokesh Garg (Mumbai)+91 22 6777 3743 HYPERLINK mailto:lokesh.garg lokesh.gargAlejandro Chavelas (Mexico)Oil & Gas

25、+52 55 5283 3809 HYPERLINK mailto:alejandro.chavelas alejandro.chavelasRegis Cardoso (Sao Paulo)+55 11 3701 6297 HYPERLINK mailto:regis.cardoso regis.cardosoCredit Suisse Global Energy Events in 2020January 28-31LatAm Investment Conference and Site Visits So Paulo and Rio de JaneiroMarch 1-425th Ann

26、ual Vail Energy Summit Vail, COMarch 24-27Asian Investment Conference Hong KongAprilEnergy Primer Day NYCMay28th Annual Offshore Technology Conference and Tour Houston, TXMay 5-8Mexico Investment Ideas Conference (MIIC) and Energy Tracks Mexico CityMay 13Inaugural Utilities, Power & Clean Tech Confe

27、rence NYCJune7th Annual Australian Energy ConferenceJune 3-4Global Energy Conference LondonSeptember 22-24Houston Bus Tour Houston, TXFallCalgary Energy Tour Calgary, CanadaEarly NovemberChina Investment Conference Shenzhen, ChinaDecemberLatin America Oil & Gas Trip Argentina and BrazilEnergy in 202

28、0: Themes This years theme: EvolvingThis years theme of “Evolving” was chosen for the gradual developmental changes we are seeing across most energy sub-sectors on the back of investor- imposed demands, increasing environmental concerns, and oil prices finding some stability at $55-$65/Bbl (Brent):G

29、lobal Integrated Oils are evolving from ones with a checkered capital allocation history to companies driven by increasing returns and sustainable free cash flow through the cycle with a greater awareness of ESG standards and lower carbon footprint (particularly the Euros);US E&Ps are evolving from

30、growth-oriented to more capital disciplined and free cash flow generating entities;US Oilfield Services to evolve into a bifurcated market on the basis of geographic and customer mix, whereby those aligned with best-in-class operators with the best rocks outperform;US MLPs continue to improve corpor

31、ate governance and focus on self-funding growth thats now further bound with capital discipline;US Refiners to adjust to the tailwind of IMO 2020, particularly benefitting those with the lowest residual yield globally;US Utilities will continue to transform into a lower-carbon and higher tech indust

32、ry as renewable power without fuel costs and grid modernization drive earnings growth with less customer burden;US Alternative Energy and Renewables to see new business models emerging around batteries as costs decline and customer adoption rates tick up;Canadian Infrastructure pipeline egress is an

33、 issue (largely for liquids), but a major growing opportunity for LNG and NGLs;Latin America is evolving with the opening of the downstream markets in Brazil, pick-up of activity in the pre-salt and economic recovery, whereas inMexico the fuel distribution and power markets seem to offer better oppo

34、rtunities than E&P;Asia to reverse the de-rating trend as some of the policy uncertainty are finally out of the way, especially for Chinas natural gas reform.While it remains to be seen whether these improvements will evolve into greater investor interest in 2020, its worth noting that valuations (e

35、.g. EV/EBITDX, FCF Yields) are starting to look attractive relative to the broader market and we see the potential for a constructive oil price set-up heading into 2H20-2021 particularly if US oil growth slows more than we currently forecast.Crude OilOPEC+ and slowing US growth enable a balanced mar

36、ket in 2020. We estimate WTI/Brent average $55 and $63/Bbl, respectively, near our long-term mid-cycle price. While somewhat oversupplied in 1H20, we see the market largely balanced in 2020 driven by a modest pick-up in demand growth, slowing US oil production, lower than expected Brazilian growth,

37、and OPEC+ continuing to intervene to balance the market (we expect the recent OPEC+ cuts to be extended to YE20).US Natural GasWe forecast US natural gas prices average $2.50/MMBtu, down modestly YoY and in line with our long-term mid-cycle price. Despite US production growth slowing materially as M

38、arcellus/Utica moves toward maintenance capex, this should only serve to lessen the oversupply of 2019 next year as we continue to see robust growth in associated natural gas.Global LNGThe debate no longer is about the looming deficit (or whats left of the once promising 2023-24 deficit), but instea

39、d how long prices will stay low, and the potential surplus from 2025/26 onwards again. Many large scale projects move forward without the need to be fully sold out at FID. The independents would need to entice LNG buyers to sign long term contracts (as they need project financing), but this comes at

40、 a cost of lower returns and more oversupplied market down the road.European Natural GasTank tops in Europe could be reached earlier in 2020 (than in 2019) forcing European gas prices down to levels, where the short-term marginal cost of supply only accounts for HH plus variable (i.e., fuel cost) sh

41、ipping and regas. Our analysis shows that tank tops could be reached in late July/earl August 2020 (vs mid-September in 2019) assuming a cold winter. A mild(er) winter would wipe out 20-25bcm in winter demand, creating much bigger problems for the gas markets next summer.Global RefiningExpect a cycl

42、ical uptick in 2020. Global refining margins have been relatively sluggish in 2019. Weak demand, new refinery capacity additions, a worse crude spread environment, among others, explained this reality. Despite the many near-term uncertainties, we still expect a cyclical uptick in 2020, driven by IMO

43、 regulations. Once the positive impact from the IMO regulation is in the rear-view mirror, there is the potential for more challenging times to return, with spare capacity continuing to increase (by 2025, possibly back to 2014 levels, on our estimates).Global Integrated OilsWe continue to have a pre

44、ference for European Majors over US Majors, due to more attractive relative valuation and further progress on ESG initiatives. While the industry has historically had a poor track record when it comes to striking the right balance between reinvestment and distribution, several integrateds (e.g. CVX,

45、 RDS, TOT) have shown the ability/willingness to generate robust free cash flow and return much of it back to shareholders via dividends and/or share repurchases. ESG and M&A risks remain key investor concerns, but we think the group is tackling the former progressively and dont believe the latter w

46、ill happen unless the deal is accretive to corporate returns and free cash flow.US E&PsWe believe E&Ps continue to evolve from high growth, deficit spending entities to slower growing but FCF generating companies. With large-cap E&Ps generating FCF yields of 5% at $55/Bbl, they are now competitive w

47、ith the broader market but not compelling given the history of poor capital allocation and volatile oil prices. We prefer E&Ps that offer a combination of competitive growth and FCF yield (preferably high single digit) and attractive relative valuation.US Oil & Gas Royalty MineralsWe expect further

48、consolidation in the Royalty Mineral space in 2020. Transactions from our coverage universe are tracking close to$1.7bn for 2019, up from $1.3bn in 2018, primarily from small bolt-on acquisitions. Meanwhile, large-scale transactions could also pick up from private equity-backed mineral entities look

49、ing to exit either by coming to the public market, or being consolidated by one of the existing publics.US Oilfield ServicesWe expect US Oilfield Services to face continued headwinds from E&P capital discipline and efficiency gains. We expect to see a bifurcation in OFS performance on the basis of g

50、eographic and customer mix. In our view, international service markets will show continued (though at a declining rate) growth, which we expect to provide tailwinds to intl service margins. We expect robust (10%) growth in offshore markets with deepwater inflecting. The large-cap Oilfield Services s

51、ector is discounting a 150bps discount (200bps ex-SLB) vs its long-term historical average Cash Flow Return on Investment (CFROI).US Midstream & MLPsWe expect to see a growing emphasis on capital discipline and a shift toward FCF generation. Companies that take a more disciplined approach to their g

52、rowth backlogs should stand out. While capital returns are likely still further away, we continue to believe that 2018 represents the peak of the spending cycle and anticipate a 20% decline in growth capex levels in 2020. Furthermore, with slowing growth and naturally constrained capital, we may see

53、 companies turn to M&A as a means to grow and extract value.US UtilitiesContinued buildout of renewables and grid upgrades will continue to drive healthy fundamental growth in 2020, but expect continued re-rating to lower P/Es in 2020 as funds flow away from Defensive stocks into less expensive Valu

54、e sectors. Within the group, we expect relative outperformance for Integrated utilities with some non-utility exposure and more reversion to mean among the Regulateds, where prior defensive inflows have left a wide dispersion between the highest and lowest forward P/Es. Other themes for 2020 include

55、 more emphasis on renewables, equity issuances, impacts from the Presidential election on decarbonization, renewables, and taxes, the possibility of lower-than-expected ROEs, more opposition to natural gas, and a PJM Capacity Auction.US RenewablesUS renewable demand in 2020 continues to grow due to

56、favorable economics for solar, wind and storage, declining tariffs on solar imports, lower interest rates in a capital intensive business, compressing financing spreads, positive state government policy support for clean energy, and Democratic party push for extension and expansion of favorable fede

57、ral tax credits. Battery storage demand will continue to grow, and lead to new innovative business models across the sector. We still prefer downstream solar developers.European Oilfield ServicesDiversification of revenue streams beyond upstream oil projects: European oil service companies need to d

58、emonstrate that opportunity sets in offshore wind, solar, carbon capture storage and other decarbonisation technologies can positively impact P&Ls. The sector has low leverage and strong free cash flows and companies will be under pressure to use that capital either to diversify or return to shareho

59、lders. Expansionary capex in traditional disciplines would not be well received.Canadian Infrastructure & UtilitiesWe continue to see three largely interrelated major themes overarching the Infrastructure sector: (1) favorable funds flow with continuing increasing allocations towards real assets wit

60、h duration; (2) historically low interest rates (even if macro rates went up 200bps) look to drive further interest in the sector given the nature of risk-adjusted returns (from both private and public sources); and, (3) the public-to-private theme continuing across the sector in a broad fashion for