2020-2021欧元区经济评估

1、Economic Assessment of the Euro Area: Winter 2020/2021This EUROFRAME Report presents an assess- ment of the economic outlook for 2021 focuses on the euro area based on a synopsis of the fore- casts of EUROFRAME institutes. Perspectives for UK and CEEs countries are described in Boxes A and B, respec

2、tively.In the Focus section, we discuss a special topic, based on work done in the EUROFRAME insti- tutes. This time, we discuss the impact that the COVID-19 crisis had on labour markets in Eu- rope and policy responses to this challenge, based on the experience in the countries hosting EUROFRAME in

3、stitutes.The international outlook: the second wave of Covid-19 slows down the recoveryThe coronavirus outbreak triggered a world- wide economic crisis without modern paral- lel. When the first wave of the pandemic hit countries at the beginning of 2020, governments closed all non-essential business

4、es and issued stay-at-home orders. The resulting economic losses were huge in terms of output, jobs and incomes. Global trade of goods fell dramati- cally. Services have been hit particularly hard, especially activities that rely on social interac- tion such as tourism, hotels, restaurants and en- t

5、ertainment.As summer approached, the number of Covid- 19 infections gradually decreased and most re- strictions were lifted. Consumer expectations improved and activity had a “V shape” rebound,with some countries experiencing a steeper than expected recovery. However, only China re- gained its pre-c

6、risis level of GDP. According to the CPB world trade monitor, global trade grew MoM since June and surpassed its pre-crisis level in November. According to recent data the current containment measures until now seem to have had little impact on the world trade in goods. However, the Covid-19 pandemi

7、c con- tinues to weigh heavily on international trade in services.1The epidemiological situation started to worsen again in autumn 2020, forcing governments to implement a new round of lockdowns. Alt- hough most of these shutdowns are less strin- gent than those enforced in spring (Chart 1),1 Air tr

8、affic and international tourism remain on the downside. In November 2020, the number of passengers on international flights was 88 per cent lower than a year earlier.these containment measures will reverse the summers recovery in many countries and are likely to negatively affect growth prospects fo

9、r 2021.Chart 1 - Stringency index 100 = strictest level of policies100908070605040GermanyFrance30Spain20Netherlands10Sweden0Italy Source: Hale et al. (2020).Note: Data updated to January 2021.Monetary and fiscal policy remain crucial to support activity and incomes. Monetary eas- ing by several cent

10、ral banks contributed to pre- serving favourable financing conditions throughout the pandemic period and will con- tinue to do so going forward. The Fed at the end of August 2020 announced a shift in theirstrategic objective toward a 2 per cent target on an average undetermined period and to short-

11、falls in full employment (rather than deviations from full employment), which would imply in- flation to temporarily exceed 2 per cent in the coming years and could further delay the next interest rate hike. The ECB at the beginning of the crisis introduced additional policy tools (PELTROs, PEPP and

12、 more favourable condi- tions for TLTROs), which in December 2020 it reinforced and extended beyond 2021 and pledged to adjust according to the evolution of the health crisis.China is leading the global recovery. The Chi- nese economy recovered well from the first wave of the pandemic. The continued

13、 growth of industrial production and an economic structure which is more manufacturing orientated con- tributed to this result (Chart 2). Moreover, it did not experience a second wave of infections so far, unlike other major economies. Asian economies are benefitting the most from Chinas growth and

14、the pre-Covid trend to- wards trade regionalization in Asia is moving forward. The approval of the Regional Compre- hensive Economic Partnership increases Chinas influence in the region, especially after the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Part- nership in 2017. This moves the global centre of tr

15、ade more toward Asia.Chart 2 Industrial production December 2019 = 1001101051009590US8580EMU75 China70Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Source: Prometeias calculations on National Statisti- cal Offices data.Note: Data updated to December 2020.The start of a new era for US domestic and foreign policy. Th

16、e worsening of the health cri- sis in the last part of 2020 will slow the recovery after the rebound of Q3-2020. While GDP in the fourth quarter continued to grow (by 1 per cent QoQ), economic activity clearly lost momen- tum. In December, the US labour market lost jobs for the first time after eigh

17、t months, with leisure and hospitality the most seriously af- fected. In January 2021, despite a monthly gain of 49 thousand jobs, total employment was still around 9 million units lower than before thecrisis. After four years of the Trump administra- tion, the results of the 2020 elections represen

18、t a turning point for the countrys domestic and foreign policy. President Biden will have room to advance his presidential domestic agenda, in- cluding an additional Covid-19 relief package (already presented) to support low-income households and further budget stimuli. A return of the US on the glo

19、bal stage is also to be ex- pected. Bidens foreign policy plans include re- suming US transatlantic relations and re-joining the Paris Agreement on climate change.Moderate global growth in 2021 due to a bad start to the year. Recent shutdowns will weigh on growth in the first part of 2021. Neverthel

20、ess, public health conditions should gradually im- prove as the vaccination campaign progresses. The improvement of households and firms confidence will positively affect both private consumption and investments and willcontribute to strengthen the recovery in the sec- ond part of 2021.Risks to the

21、projections are mainly downward and linked to the development of the health cri- sis. An additional worsening of the pandemic, or delays in the availability and administration of the Covid-19 vaccines, could hamper house- hold and corporate income growth. Moreover, China recently detected new corona

22、virus out- breaks and imposed regional level shutdowns to contain the spread of infections ahead of the Lu- nar New Year celebrations. If these containment measures slow down Chinese growth, the global economic outlook will be negatively affected too.An upside risk is associated with the successful

23、implementation of a strong stimulus by the Biden administration to promote the US recov- ery, with possible positive effects also for the global economy.The Euro Area Outlook: strong but incomplete recovery in the third quarter, doubts about the short term.The pandemic led to a historic contraction

24、of economic activity in spring followed by a substantial but incomplete recovery in sum- mer. Due to fewer restrictions, less risk of con- tamination and the reopening of factories and shops, the recovery in production in the euro- zone in the third quarter of 2020 was substantial but incomplete. In

25、 the second quarter, the QoQ decline of GDP was the largest ever recorded, but after that, the increase in the third quarter was also the largest ever. This recovery has compensated at least for two-thirds of the previ- ous production decline. Nevertheless, the re- maining decline is still significa

26、nt: in the third quarter, GDP in the euro area was still 4.4 per cent lower than at the end of 2019. Only the GDP decline at the start of the great recession was greater (-5.3 per cent).With renewed containment measures in place during the fourth quarter and in the beginning of 2021, the short-term

27、outlook for GDP has become less favourable. Resurging infection rates triggered renewed measures to contain the pandemic in autumn which derailed the recovery. Euro area GDP contracted by 0.7 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to the Eurostat flash estimate, with declines in output concentrat

28、ed in France, Italy and Austria. PMI data indicate that the manufacturing sector still shows a sustained growth, whereas the service sector is increasingly constrained by severe so- cial distancing measures (Chart 3). The manu- facturing data from PMI are corroborated by the industrial production da

29、ta from Eurostat. The renewed measures will also have a negative im- pact on economic activity in the first quarter of 2021. A sustained recovery will only start afterSource: Refinitiv, IHS Markit10Composite Manufacturing Services3020 605040Chart 3 PMI eurozonelarge scale vaccination amongst the gen

30、eral public reduces contaminations. Due to an antic- ipated relaxation of the containment measures, production and consumption are expected to pick up from the second quarter onwards. Ini- tially, the recovery is quite strong because of pent-up demand, with GDP growing at 4.9 per cent in 2021 (avera

31、ge of the EUROFRAME in- stitutes forecasts). In 2022, the recovery will continue, albeit at a more moderate growth rate of 3.1 per cent.Jan.18Apr.18 Jul.18 Oct.18 Jan.19 Apr.19 Jul.19 Oct.19 Jan.20 Apr.20 Jul.20 Oct.20Jan.21The Covid-19 crisis led to a sharp fall in hours worked, but comparatively m

32、odest rise in unemployment. In Europe, while the sharp fall in production has led to a decline in labour productivity, it has mainly resulted in a decrease in the number of hours worked.2 In the EU, the number of hours worked per person em- ployed fell by 11 per cent in the second quarter compared t

33、o the previous quarter. The sharp de- cline in the second quarter was followed by an increase of more than 15 per cent in the third quarter. Wage cost subsidies enabled this reduc- tion in the number of hours worked per person2 In the US, the production decline and subsequent recovery in production

34、was reflected in the unemployment rate, which rose from a record low of 3.5 per cent in February to 14.7 per cent in April, before declining to 6.9 per cent in October.3 The advantage of the US approach is that there are more finan- cial incentives for shifts from contracting to growth sectors. Inci

35、- dentally, in the US it is possible to be unemployed and still maintain a relationship with the last employer through a furloughscheme. See Eichhorst, W., P. Marx and U. Rinne, COVID-19employed and prevented a sharp rise in unem- ployment in Europe (see Focus section). The advantage of the European

36、 approach is that the link between employee and company is main- tained and production can be resumed more eas- ily.3 In 2020, unemployment in the euro area showed a modest increase to 8.0 per cent. In 2021, the average unemployment rate is ex- pected to increase further before declining in 2022.Gov

37、ernments have turned to massive sup- port measures that have dampened the pro- duction decline caused by the corona out- break. Together with the decline in GDP, this has led to rather large budget deficits. For the euro area, the budget deficit has widened from0.6 per cent of GDP in 2019 to an expe

38、cted 8.8 per cent of GDP in 2020. This will increase gov- ernment debt in the euro area to more than 100 per cent of GDP. The European recovery pro- gram of 750 billion euros will have no effect on the economy or budgets in 2020. A limited ef- fect is expected for 2021. In 2020, the European Commiss

39、ion itself issued bonds for SURE, the 100 billion euro programme mainly intended for wage cost subsidies.Inflation has weakened further in the euro area. Prices even fell from August 2020 for the first time since May 2016. This weakening was due to both the fall in oil prices and lower core inflatio

40、n. The average headline inflation in 2020 was 0.3 per cent. Temporary factors such as the VAT cut in Germany played a role in core infla- tion. For 2021, the decline of the negative base effects will lead to an increase in inflation, but inflation is expected to remain well below the ECB target.4Cri

41、sis Response Monitoring; The Second Phase of the Crisis. IZA Research Report No. 105. IZA Institute of Labour Econom- ics. 2021.4 Market expectations, based on inflation linked swaps, all show increases to pre-Covid levels after the large initial drop in Febru- ary and March 2020.Source: Refinitiv.1

42、10907050S&PCOMPNASDAQMSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS MSCI EURO170150130Chart 4 Stock price indicesJan.19Mar.19 May.19 Jul.19 Sep.19 Nov.19 Jan.20 Mar.20 May.20 Jul.20 Sep.20 Nov.20Jan.21Share prices were initially hit but partly re- covered during 2020, while capital market interest rates were lower at the e

43、nd of the year, at least in the euro area. Initially, stock prices fell sharply due to the corona outbreak, but after the rapid policy responses and initial signs of a recovery in global production, prices picked up again from the end of March (Chart 4). At the end of 2020, US stock price indices we

44、re higher than at the end of 2019 and some significantly so (S&P 500: + 12 per cent, Nasdaq: +44 per cent). However, prices of Eu- ropean shares remained lower than at the end of 2019. (MSCI EURO: -4 per cent, MSCI EU-ROPE FINANCIALS: -16 per cent). The fall from the end of 2019 to the end of 2020 i

45、n the 10-year interest rate was 0.5 percentage points for the euro area as a whole.5Table 1 - Euro Area Forecasts - EUROFRAME Institutes averageGDPCPI Inflation*Unemployment Rate*202020212022202020212022202020212022-8.08.88.2* HICP* Eurostat definitionTable 2 - Euro Area ForecastsI

46、nstituteGDPCPI Inflation*UnemploymentRate*Date of fore- cast202020212022202020212022202020212022Wifo--18/12/2020ETLA-7.65.588.5811/01/2021OFCE-7.25.7-10/2020DIW-0.09.89.510/12/2020IfW-16/12/2020Prometeia-8.08.58.108/02

47、/2021CPB--11/2020NIESR-7.08.78.008/02/2021* HICP* Eurostat definition5 In the US, further easing of monetary policy and a bleaker eco- nomic outlook initially led to a decline in capital market interestrates of about 1 percentage point, but since August rates in-

48、creased again to more than 1 per cent.BOX A: CEEC ProspectsEconomies of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) suffered from the unprecedented Covid- 19 epidemic in 2020. Recent projections show that the Czech Republic and Slovakia experienced the most substantial negative impact of Covid-19

49、in the region (6.8 per cent decline of GDP in 2020), whereas the economies of Poland and Lithuania are forecasted to decline at a relatively low pace (1.9 per cent and 3.5 per cent decline, respectively). The GDP decline in 2020 in Bulgaria, Estonia, Romania, and Latvia is expected to range from 4.5

50、 up to 5.5 per cent. Unsurprisingly, private consumption and private investment in the second quarter of 2020 were the main drivers of the observed GDP decline. In Poland, the largest economy in the region, private consumption and investment fell in the second quarter by 10.5 and 9.0 per cent QoQ, r

51、espectively. The downfall in private consumption is expected to remain between -3.0 and -4.0 per cent in the vast majority of CEECs, whereas private investment was much more volatile across countries with the expected mean decline of over 8 per cent. A sharp decline in the economic activity could al

52、so be observed on the labour markets as the increase in unemployment rates ranged from 2.7 up to 3.5 percentage points over 2020.The governments of CEECs responded to the Covid-19 pandemic through various fiscal measures. These measures are expected to increase government expenditure on average by 4

53、.8 and 1.3 per cent YoY in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Along with decreased tax revenues, elevated expenditure will lead to a deterioration in the state of the public finances. The average budget balance-to-GDP ratio in the region is projected to reach -7.4 per cent in 2020 and -5.2 per cent in 202

54、1. Overall, the general govern- ment debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to hit 46.1 per cent in 2020 and 48.2 per cent in 2021, in total in the region.Due to the expected roll-out of the vaccine for the Covid-19 virus and the assumed easing of containment measures, CEEC economies are expected to rebound

55、in 2021. However, GDP in real terms in all CEECs in 2021 will remain below the levels observed in 2019. A full recovery of CEE economies is expected no earlier than in 2022. GDP growth in 2021 is projected to reach up to 5.4 per cent year-over-year in Slovakia and as low as 3.1 per cent in Lithuania

56、. Poland, Hungary, and Latvia are the other countries are expected to grow at the pace of over 4 per cent. The annual GDP growth for Poland is forecasted at4.1 per cent and 4.0 per cent in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Hence, the Polish economy is expected to return to its pre-Covid growth trends.The

57、 rebound will mostly be driven by the aggregates that suffered most throughout 2020, namely private consumption that is expected to increase at the highest pace in Latvia and Poland (5.7 and 4.5 per cent year-over-year growth in 2021, respectively). Private investment is projected to be the second m

58、ost important engine of growth with year-over-year growth exceeding the increase in consumption expendi- ture. The fastest increase in private investment is forecasted for Slovakia (10.9 per cent growth in 2021) and Estonia (7.9 per cent growth). Government consumption in CEE as a whole is forecaste

59、d to grow at a decreasing rate whereas trade balances are projected to deteriorate in most of the countries in the region.BOX B: UK prospectsThe UK economy is forecast to grow by a moderate 3.4 per cent in 2021, after having contracted by 9.9 per cent in 2020. The majority of the fall in 2020 came i

60、n Q2, when activity fell by 18.8 per cent QoQ under lockdown restrictions. A fairly robust recovery in June and July slowed over the autumn, with activity returning to 94 per cent of February levels in October. November saw a second and less restrictive lockdown in England, output falling 2.6 per ce