银行业详解银行的基金4季度持仓：实际持仓下降0.16%至5.26%偏好核心资产

1、-、基金配置银行股情况：板块持仓实际环比收窄、仍处低配状 态 4季度市场增配银行板块，一定程度受到邮储上市的影响，但行业仍处 低配状态。我们统计了 19年4季度开放式普通股票型基金、偏股混合 型基金、灵活配置型基金的重仓股配置情况：1、剔除邮储、浙商上市 影响，19年4季度基金持仓银行股实际可比比例为5.26%，较3季度 环比下降016个百分点，拉长区间看仍处历史低位，低于06年以来的 中位数和平均数水平7.49% 11.66%o 18年来每个季度持仓比例分别 环比变动-0.49%、.90%、+1.88%、-0.41%、-0.90%、1.43%、-0.49%、 -0.16%o 2、假设不剔除邮

2、储、浙商银行上市影响，持仓比例为6.44%, 持仓水平为3Q15以来的最高水平。3、增幅在28个行业中排位后9（增 幅前三的分别是房地产、电子、有色），对前期增持较多、估值偏高的 食品饮料、医药生物、非银金融减持。图表：基金持仓银行股的比例（剔除邮储、浙商后）图表：基金持仓银行股的比例40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%34.45%34.45%40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%8Toz 8sE Z.THT 98m STOZ SSI 寸THT ZTOZ zxm ETHT OTDcn 600Z 6

3、0OT 80HT zoom 900Z 90OE68m 8I0Z 8Tm FT 9sm SIOZ 寸THT ZTOZ TTHT 600Z 60OT80HT zoom 900Z 90OE来源：wind,中泰证券研究所来源：Wind,中泰证券研究所图表：基金持仓银行股环比变动情况资料来源：Wind,中泰证券研究所20171Q181H183Q1820181Q192Q193Q192019食品饮料2.29%-3.13%3.02%0.22%-2.70%3.29%3.74%-1.68%-1.94%医药生物0.93%2.49%3.17%-1.71%-0.64%0.08%-0.40%1.64%-1.91%非银金融

4、0.82%-2.69%-0.60%2.80%-0.84%0.76%0.42%-0.80%-1.74%农林牧渔0.25%-0.15%-0.22%0.26%1.36%1.51%1.14%-0.49%-0.75%计算机-0.74%2.11%1.30%0.51%-0.01%0.74%-1.35%-0.37%-0.51%商业贸易-0.42%0.28%0.02%0.24%0.68%-0.16%-0.23%-0.86%-0.44%公用事业-0.28%-0.59%-0.05%-0.16%0.69%-1.01%-0.12%0.66%-0.34%交通运输0.23%0.20%0.21%-0.26%-0.03%-0.

5、08%0.61%-0.12%-0.30%纺织服装0.01%0.16%0.31%-0.12%-0.05%-0.05%-0.09%-0.05%-0.16%国防军工-0.11%0.25%-0.07%0.21%-0.28%-0.23%0.05%-0.14%-0.16%电气设备0.91%-0.04%-1.59%-0.11%1.25%-0.49%0.26%-0.30%-0.14%休闲服务-0.04%-0.02%0.30%0.32%0.00%-0.29%0.28%0.16%-0.11%通信-0.07%-0.09%-1.18%0.41%0.66%0.15%-0.74%-0.07%-0.09%建筑装饰-0.90

6、%-0.05%-0.53%-0.01%0.20%-0.39%-0.19%-0.01%-0.08%综合-0.02%0.04%0.07%0.06%0.13%0.00%0.14%-0.08%-0.07%轻工制造-0.45%0.43%0.23%-0.33%-0.11%-0.47%-0.36%-0.09%-0.02%钢铁-0.24%-0.24%0.13%0.00%-0.34%-0.05%0.01%-0.05%0.05%采掘-0.11%-0.14%0.17%0.22%-0.26%-0.20%-0.02%-0.08%0.08%汽车-0.39%-0.55%0.12%0.07%0.14%0.28%-0.43%-

7、0.20%0.24%建筑材料0.02%-0.04%-0.54%0.28%-0.34%0.17%0.17%-0.22%0.41%化工-0.12%0.46%-0.12%-0.11%-0.83%-0.38%-0.33%0.28%0.47%家用电器1.21%0.04%0.90%-2.47%-0.91%0.18%1.61%-0.82%0.51%机械设备-1.00%-0.30%-0.31%0.13%0.59%-0.06%-0.67%-0.28%0.51%传媒0.50%0.80%-0.29%-1.32%0.16%-0.15%0.01%0.33%0.93%有色金属-1.66%0.55%-0.96%-0.71%

8、-0.54%-0.66%0.40%-0.19%0.97%银行-0.09%-0.49%-1.90%1.88%-0.41%-0.90%1.43%-0.49%1.02%电子-1.98%-0.62%-1.42%-1.49%0.16%0.58%-1.62%4.68%1.24%房地产1.06%0.49%-0.68%0.86%2.36%-0.92%-1.49%-0.46%1.65%图表：基金持仓银行股环比变动情况（剔除邮储、浙商后）资料来源：Wind,中泰证券研究所20171Q181H183Q1820181Q192Q193Q192019食品饮料2.29%-3.13%3.02%0.22%-2.70%3.29%

9、3.74%-1.68%-1.76%医药生物0.93%2.49%3.17%-1.71%-0.64%0.08%-0.40%1.64%-1.75%非银金融0.82%-2.69%-0.60%2.80%-0.84%0.76%0.42%-0.80%-1.68%农林牧渔0.25%-0.15%-0.22%0.26%1.36%1.51%1.14%-0.49%-0.72%计算机-0.74%2.11%1.30%0.51%-0.01%0.74%-1.35%-0.37%-0.46%商业贸易-0.42%0.28%0.02%0.24%0.68%-0.16%-0.23%-0.86%-0.43%公用事业-0.28%-0.59%

10、-0.05%-0.16%0.69%-1.01%-0.12%0.66%-0.33%交通运输0.23%0.20%0.21%-0.26%-0.03%-0.08%0.61%-0.12%-0.27%银行-0.09%-0.49%-1.90%1.88%-0.41%-0.90%1.43%-0.49%-0.16%纺织服装0.01%0.16%0.31%-0.12%-0.05%-0.05%-0.09%-0.05%-0.16%国防军工-0.11%0.25%-0.07%0.21%-0.28%-0.23%0.05%-0.14%-0.15%电气设备0.91%-0.04%-1.59%-0.11%1.25%-0.49%0.26

11、%-0.30%-0.10%休闲服务-0.04%-0.02%0.30%0.32%0.00%-0.29%0.28%0.16%-0.09%建筑装饰-0.90%-0.05%-0.53%-0.01%0.20%-0.39%-0.19%-0.01%-0.08%通信-0.07%-0.09%-1.18%0.41%0.66%0.15%-0.74%-0.07%-0.07%综合-0.02%0.04%0.07%0.06%0.13%0.00%0.14%-0.08%-0.07%轻工制造-0.45%0.43%0.23%-0.33%-0.11%-0.47%-0.36%-0.09%0.00%钢铁-0.24%-0.24%0.13%

12、0.00%-0.34%-0.05%0.01%-0.05%0.05%采掘-0.11%-0.14%0.17%0.22%-0.26%-0.20%-0.02%-0.08%0.08%汽车-0.39%-0.55%0.12%0.07%0.14%0.28%-0.43%-0.20%0.26%建筑材料0.02%-0.04%-0.54%0.28%-0.34%0.17%0.17%-0.22%0.43%化工-0.12%0.46%-0.12%-0.11%-0.83%-0.38%-0.33%0.28%0.51%机械设备-1.00%-0.30%-0.31%0.13%0.59%-0.06%-0.67%-0.28%0.54%家用

13、电器1.21%0.04%0.90%-2.47%-0.91%0.18%1.61%-0.82%0.58%传媒0.50%0.80%-0.29%-1.32%0.16%-0.15%0.01%0.33%0.98%有色金属-1.66%0.55%-0.96%-0.71%-0.54%-0.66%0.40%-0.19%0.99%电子-1.98%-0.62%-1.42%-1.49%0.16%0.58%-1.62%4.68%1.40%房地产1.06%0.49%-0.68%0.86%2.36%-0.92%-1.49%-0.46%1.72% 银行股仍处历史超低配状态：1、4季度基金持仓银行股低配差为9.01 % （剔除邮

14、储、浙商后），未剔除邮储浙商的低配差为7. 8%,自1H13 至今，银行股一直是30个板块中持仓比例与标配差值最大的行业。2、 低配差绝对值较3季度扩大。较3Q19低配差值扩大0. 23个百分点。 行业标配占比银行股平稳，1H18-2019标配比例分别为14.2%、15.7%、 16.1% 14%、14.6%、14.3%、14.3% （标配比为申万一级行业流通A 股市值占比）。3、金融板块低配差为全行业最高，低配差排位第二的 是非银金融板块，两者相差4.9%O图表：自7370银行股处于低配状态图表：剔除邮储、浙商后低配差进一步扩大25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.0

15、0%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%6L06 6Le 8LO9 80 ZLoq 9LCC0 SLoa go 寸Los we 6LGCO Z6C0 eLON25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%20.00%-20.00%来源：wind,中泰证券研究所来源：Wind,中泰证券研究所图表：银行股持仓比例与标配差绝对值位列板块之最20171Q181H183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q19银行-8.14%-8.63%-10.24%-9.90%-10.71%-9.48%-8.66%-8.84%-7.83%非银金融-

16、0.07%-2.42%287%-0.55%-1.63%-1.78%-1.67%-2.16%-4.15%采掘-4.64%-4.56%-4.73%-5.25%-4.96%-4.38%-4.30%-4.05%-3.59%公用事业-1.88%-2.35%-2.50%-2.78%-2.40%-3.02%-3.52%-2.70%-2.78%建筑装饰-2.05%-1.98%236%-2.52%-2.49%-2.55%-2.55%-2.28%-2.21%化工-1.91%-1.53%-1.84%-2.05%-2.38%-2.55%-2.69%-2.46%-1.98%交通运输-2.11%-2.00%-1.73%-

17、1.75%-1.86%-1.96%-1.27%-1.32%-1.64%钢铁-1.04%-1.16%-1.08%-1.18%-1.39%-1.35%-1.21%-1.12%-1.06%国防军工-0.40%-0.14%-0.05%0.07%-0.20%-0.53%-0.42%-0.88%-0.91%汽车-1.34%-1.79%-1.79%-1.45%-1.22%-0.69%-0.99%-1.11%-0.87%机械设备-0.66%-0.77%-0.86%-0.55%-0.13%-0.29%-0.84%-1.08%-0.58%有色金属-0.03%0.51%-0.15%-0.66%-1.18%-1.74

18、%-1.36%-1.37%-0.49%纺织服装-0.74%-0.62%-0.35%-0.24%-0.31%-0.34%-0.34%-0.35%-0.47%通信0.40%0.33%-0.62%-0.35%0.12%0.12%-0.52%-0.45%-0.44%轻工制造0.32%0.68%0.99%0.77%0.62%0.11%-0.13%-0.19%-0.30%商业贸易-0.19%0.11%0.17%0.44%1.19%1.03%0.83%0.12%-0.25%建筑材料0.33%0.24%-0.24%0.04%-0.29%-0.17%-0.02%-0.21%0.02%农林牧渔-0.04%-0.1

19、3%-0.38%-0.06%1.11%2.34%1.25%0.87%0.17%计算机-1.12%0.47%1.90%2.49%2.56%2.74%1.54%0.80%0.32%电气设备1.36%1.37%0.02%0.10%1.15%0.56%0.76%0.53%0.39%休闲服务0.19%0.09%0.28%0.62%0.62%0.36%0.60%0.75%0.68%房地产-0.85%-0.38%-0.66%0.14%2.13%0.99%-0.16%-0.54%1.03%传媒0.96%1.68%1.57%0.38%0.47%0.15%0.32%0.42%1.23%家用电器4.31%4.34%

20、5.04%3.00%2.10%2.16%3.79%3.03%3.38%医药生物3.58%5.52%7.87%6.91%6.71%6.56%6.26%7.38%5.36%食品饮料7.71%4.79%6.63%7.02%4.80%7.35%10.05%8.07%6.49%电子5.95%5.30%4.25%3.15%3.41%3.48%2.11%5.79%6.57%资料来源：Wind,中泰证券研究所图表：银行股持仓比例与标配差绝对值位列板块之最（剔除邮储、浙商后）资料来源：Wind,中泰证券研究所20171Q181H183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q19银行-8.14%-8.63%-1

21、0.24%-9.90%-10.71%-9.48%-8.66%-8.84%-9.01%非银金融-0.07%-2.42%-2.87%-0.55%-1.63%-1.78%-1.67%-2.16%-4.09%采掘-4.64%-4.56%-4.73%-5.25%-4.96%-4.38%-4.30%-4.05%-3.59%公用事业-1.88%-2.35%-2.50%-2.78%-2.40%-3.02%-3.52%-2.70%-2.77%建筑装饰-2.05%-1.98%-2.36%-2.52%-2.49%-2.55%-2.55%-2.28%-2.21%化工-1.91%-1.53%-1.84%-2.05%-2

22、.38%-2.55%-2.69%-2.46%-1.94%交通运输-2.11%-2.00%-1.73%-1.75%-1.86%-1.96%-1.27%-1.32%-1.61%钢铁-1.04%-1.16%-1.08%-1.18%-1.39%-1.35%-1.21%-1.12%-1.06%国防军工-0.40%-0.14%-0.05%0.07%-0.20%-0.53%-0.42%-0.88%-0.90%汽车-1.34%-1.79%-1.79%-1.45%-1.22%-0.69%-0.99%-1.11%-0.84%机械设备-0.66%-0.77%-0.86%-0.55%-0.13%-0.29%-0.84

23、%-1.08%-0.54%有色金属-0.03%0.51%-0.15%-0.66%-1.18%-1.74%-1.36%-1.37%-0.47%纺织服装-0.74%-0.62%-0.35%-0.24%-0.31%-0.34%-0.34%-0.35%-0.47%通信0.40%0.33%-0.62%-0.35%0.12%0.12%-0.52%-0.45%-0.42%轻工制造0.32%0.68%0.99%0.77%0.62%0.11%-0.13%-0.19%-0.29%商业贸易-0.19%0.11%0.17%0.44%1.19%1.03%0.83%0.12%-0.24%建筑材料0.33%0.24%-0.

24、24%0.04%-0.29%-0.17%-0.02%-0.21%0.04%农林牧渔-0.04%-0.13%-0.38%-0.06%1.11%2.34%1.25%0.87%0.20%计算机-1.12%0.47%1.90%2.49%2.56%2.74%1.54%0.80%0.37%电气设备1.36%1.37%0.02%0.10%1.15%0.56%0.76%0.53%0.43%休闲服务0.19%0.09%0.28%0.62%0.62%0.36%0.60%0.75%0.70%房地产-0.85%-0.38%-0.66%0.14%2.13%0.99%-0.16%-0.54%1.10%传媒0.96%1.6

25、8%1.57%0.38%0.47%0.15%0.32%0.42%1.28%家用电器4.31%4.34%5.04%3.00%2.10%2.16%3.79%3.03%3.45%医药生物3.58%5.52%7.87%6.91%6.71%6.56%6.26%7.38%5.51%食品饮料7.71%4.79%6.63%7.02%4.80%7.35%10.05%8.07%6.67%电子5.95%5.30%4.25%3.15%3.41%3.48%2.11%5.79%6.73%二、银行个股持仓情况：偏好核心资产+独具特色的银行4季度基金持仓银行个股风格：1、3季度减持较多、基本面稳健优异 的个股，如常熟、招行、

26、兴业、张家港；2、近一年新上市的个股，如 邮储、青岛、浙商。3、对大行和估值偏高的中小行有减持，如建行、宁 波、工行、交行。4、本季度增加前5的个股为邮储、常熟、兴业、青岛、 张家港，环比变动 65.57%、1.95%、0.52%、0.40%、0.34%。环比下 降较多的个股为建行、宁波、南京、杭州、工行，分别较3季度下降 1.65%、0.92%、0.61%、0.13 % 0.10%。图表：基金持仓银行股市值占比流通股市值环比变动资料来源：Wind,中泰证券研究所20171Q181H183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q19邮储银行65.57%常熟银行0.03%0.09%-0.12%

27、2.17%-0.40%1.03%5.15%-3.68%1.95%兴业银行-0.30%-0.37%-0.31%0.27%0.19%0.47%0.37%-0.04%0.52%青岛银行0.40%张家港行0.00%0.09%-0.09%0.04%-0.03%-0.01%0.24%-0.24%0.34%招商银行0.14%-0.15%-0.33%0.40%-0.40%0.17%0.43%-0.33%0.25%浙商银行0.25%长沙银行-0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.15%江阴银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.09%无锡银行0.00%0.0

28、0%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.08%中信银行0.02%0.07%-0.05%-0.05%-0.05%-0.04%0.02%0.02%0.08%郑州银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.07%贵阳银行-0.76%-0.66%0.35%-0.26%-0.50%-0.64%-0.06%-0.03%0.04%北京银行-0.03%-0.09%-0.12%0.02%-0.01%0.02%0.12%0.14%0.03%民生银行-0.04%-0.21%-0.05%-0.05%-0.05%-0.17%0.07%0.01%0.03%光大银行-0.05%-0.01%-

29、0.29%0.12%0.21%-0.21%0.01%0.13%0.00%紫金银行0.00%0.00%0.00%西安银行-0.03%0.00%0.00%青农商行-0.09%0.00%0.00%吴江银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.18%1.14%-1.32%0.00%0.00%渝农商行0.00%平安银行0.30%-1.55%-0.42%0.80%-0.13%-0.04%0.56%-0.02%0.00%华夏银行-0.49%-0.25%-0.15%0.11%0.03%0.02%-0.20%0.07%-0.01%成都银行0.00%0.08%-0.05%0.00%-0.01%0.11%-0

30、.02%中国银行-0.09%0.01%-0.04%0.01%0.00%-0.04%0.04%0.01%-0.02%浦发银行-0.06%-0.36%-0.02%-0.08%-0.01%0.00%0.10%-0.01%-0.05%江苏银行0.01%0.00%0.00%0.05%-0.05%0.15%-0.04%-0.02%-0.05%农业银行-0.13%0.18%-0.15%0.03%-0.05%-0.12%0.07%-0.07%-0.06%上海银行-0.01%0.32%0.01%0.07%0.38%-0.66%-0.07%0.08%-0.09%交通银行-0.46%-0.10%-0.08%-0.0

31、2%0.11%-0.03%0.06%-0.02%-0.09%工商银行0.05%0.03%-0.08%-0.05%-0.02%-0.17%0.14%0.05%-0.10%杭州银行0.00%0.09%-0.06%-0.03%0.02%0.00%0.06%0.16%-0.13%南京银行0.58%2.06%-1.35%0.20%-1.45%0.01%-0.40%0.45%-0.61%宁波银行0.66%-0.38%-1.20%1.44%0.59%-0.20%1.06%0.55%-0.92%建设银行0.45%0.56%-1.86%1.46%-1.73%-1.04%1.20%0.02%-1.65%风险提示：

32、宏观经济面临下行压力，银行经营不及预期。图表：银行估值表（交易价格：2020-01-22）一丁 行 行行行 行 行行 行行行 行行 行 行簧仃 行行行 行行行 行行行 行行行 行行行 新行行 行 H 艮艮艮艮艮艮艮艮艮艮艮艮 昆国 3国 4 3厘 nx 国mm 昆曼车m 甬历 引 g 1 4k At At 4 Ark t* Axk 4t 商设业国通储商信发生亚大夏安褫京波苏阳州海都州沙岛安州阴锡熟农剧金农农 工建农中交邮招中浦民兴光华平浙南宁江贵杭上成郑长青西苏江无常苏庭紫青渝2019E2020E2019E2020E2019E0.830.7612.8%12.2%4.54%0.850.7813.0%12.5%4.55%0.730.6612.3%11