CODES Presentation at the Traffic Records Forum - 2008 - Illinois 代码演示在交通记录论坛- 2008 -伊利诺斯

1、Analysis of Motor Vehicle Related Injuries and Fatalities Among Occupants of Passenger Cars in Illinois Mehdi Nassirpour, Ph.D.Susan FitzpatrickIllinois Department of TransportationDivision of Traffic SafetyJuly 26-31, 20211CODES Project and Highway Safety OfficeHow does CODES project fit with other

2、 Highway Safety Programs?Who are the audience?Has it been coordinated with ITRCC?How do program staff react toward the CODES?What have we done to address these concerns?July 26-31, 20212ObjectivesLink 2003 crash data to hospital discharge data. Provide hospital costs and utilization patterns among t

3、hose who were injured or died as a result of traffic crashes in Illinois.Provide descriptive information on number of discharges, average length of stay, primary injuries, types of crash controlling for demographics (age and gender), belt status, vehicle type, expected payment source and discharge s

4、tatus and several other factors.Develop analytical models to study the relationship between hospital charges, belt status and alcohol impairment, controlling for several demographic, vehicle and crash characteristics.July 26-31, 20213Linkage Project2003 Person-level Illinois Crash Records2003 Augmen

5、ted Single Record Hospital Inpatient Admissions2003 Hospital Inpatient Admissions with Injuries2003 Trauma AdmissionsAugmented Inpatient records with data from high probability Trauma recordsBuilt single records from multiple admissionsImputed Linkages July 26-31, 20214Data LinkedHospital InpatientA

6、ugmented with Data from TraumaCrashJuly 26-31, 20215Hospital to Trauma Linkage ResultsHospital Inpatient with Injuries94,554Trauma44,962Prior Estimate(80% of Trauma with LOS 1 day)31,077Total Pairs High Probability 1-127,164July 26-31, 20216Augmented Hospital InpatientThe addition of E-Codes from hi

7、gh probability linked trauma records led to:12 percentage point increase in the number of augmented hospital inpatient discharges with E-Code values (from 47.5% to 59.7%)3 percentage point increase in the number with motor vehicle related E-Code values (from 5.6% to 8.5%)July 26-31, 20217Crash to Au

8、gmented Hospital Inpatient Linkage ResultsCrash Person Level Records926,261Hospital Inpatient90,084Prior Estimate(45% of Estimated Inpatient records with ECode of Standard Crash)8,540Total Pairs High Probability 1-14,234Total Pairs Imputed 1-1 MCMC6,503July 26-31, 20218ApplicationsAlcohol Impairment

9、Belt StatusTotal Hospital ChargesDemographics, Vehicle Type, Crash Type and Location Type July 26-31, 20219List of Variables Used AgeGender (Male=1)Belt Status (Belted =1)Seating Position (Front Seat Occupants=1)Alcohol Impairment (Impaired=1)Discharge Status (Died/Rehab=1)Expected Payment Source (P

10、ublic=1)Injury Type (Head injury=1)Intersection Related Injury (Intersection =1)Time of Crash (Night=1)Crash Type (Single Vehicle=1)Rural/Urban (Rural=1)Vehicle Type (Light Truck=1)July 26-31, 202110AnalysesDescriptive Statistics (Freq. Percent, and Average) on hospital charges and belt status contr

11、olling for several factors.Use multivariate Statistics (Regular Regression and Logistic Regression) to predict hospital charge, belt status, and alcohol impairment controlling for selected factors (Proc MI and MIANALYZE procedure in SAS used to perform these analyses.July 26-31, 202111DemographicsVe

12、hicle Crash InjuryChargeDischarge StatusBelt StatusImpairmentTheoretical DiagramJuly 26-31, 202112Descriptive ResultsCrash victims hospitalized as inpatients:5, 098 average number of linked records$31, 649 estimated average hospital charges6.8 estimated average length of stayJuly 26-31, 202113Age Gr

13、oupLinked Count% Distribution of Linked RecordsEstimated Average ChargesEstimated Average Length of Stay (LOS)0 - 15262 5.1$26,8166.316 - 2071714.1$32,4406.521 2452110.2$30,6245.925 - 3483816.4$32,1446.535 - 4476815.1$30,5236.545 - 5460911.9$34,1007.255 - 644809.4$33,8107.465 - 743777.4$32,2917.574

14、& Over52510.3$29,5427.7July 26-31, 202114Gender Average ChargeJuly 26-31, 202115Belt Status Charges and LOSJuly 26-31, 202116Estimated Hospital Charge by Belt Status and Head/Neck InjuryJuly 26-31, 202117Estimated Hospital Charge by Belt Status and Alcohol ImpairmentJuly 26-31, 202118Results based o

15、n Multivariate AnalysesJuly 26-31, 202119Results of MIANALYZE on Total Charge Per Discharge Controlling for Selected Person, Vehicle and Environmental Variables Selected Variables EstimateStd ErrortforH0:Parameter=Theta0Pr|t|Intercept29538 2473.64711.94.0001Age-99.30735.2950-2.810.0053Belt Status (B

16、elted =1)-6836.8181996.246-3.420.0009Alcohol Impairment (Impaired=1) 5459.0281801.3133.030.0030Discharged Status (Died/transferred to Rehab=1)381042772.49513.74.0001Injury Location (Head=1)8085.8651546.5505.23.0001Rural/Urban (Rural=1)5974.5391504.4093.97|t|Intercept1.9850.14613.63.0001Age0.0140.003

17、5.60.0001Gender (Male=1)-0.3220.099-3.260.0019Alcohol Impairment (Impairment (Impaired=1) -0.9590.094-10.23.0001Time of Crash (Night=1)-0.3240.088-3.700.0002Vehicle Type (Single vehicle=1)-0.6790.099-6.87.0001Rural/Urban (Rural=1)-0.4280.090-4.75|t|Intercept-3.7020.294-12.56.0001Age-0.0120.002-5.40.

18、0001Gender (Male=1)0.78430.0849.31.0001Seating Position (Front Seat Occupants=1)1.7170.3035.66.0001Expected Payment Source (Public=1)-0.3830.122-3.130.0018Intersection Related Injury (Intersection =1)-0.4990.090-5.55.0001Time of Crash (Night=1)1.6200.08618.81.0001Crash Type (Single vehicle=1)0.7660.0908.51.0001July 26-31, 202122Future PlanComplete the analysis Validate and compare our numbers with other states data through NHTSA and other CODES statesShare the results with following groups:ITRCC membersCODES Advisory Committee membersH