外国直接投资在中国(1)ppt课件

1、Foreign Direct Investment in ChinaSeth Cox3 March 2005.Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)When is investment best defined as direct?When investment gives rise to foreign control of domestic assetsIMF- “made to acquire a lasting interest in an enterprise where the investor has an effective voice in the m

2、amagment of the companyForeign Direct Investment (FDI)Investment threshold set at state levelUS: direct when stake exceeds 10%China (PRC): when stake exceeds 25%Higher level to encourage larger investment?Terms:Inflow- quantity of FDI flowing into state over a given time period-dynamic measureStock:

3、 total accumulation of investment at a given point in time- static measureFDI- What Does it Offer?Capital- long-term, risky investmentMarket Access- export marketsPromote Export-led strategies of growthEmploymentTechnology- transfers increase productivitySpillovers and Linkages- introduction of more

4、 competitive environment and connections to local industry boost productivity and output of entire economyWhat has FDI Done for China?Role in Economic Transformation-GeneralEstablished new industrial branchesEmployment opportunitiesTechnological transfersTechnological and Managerial SkillsSpillovers

5、 to domestic industryInternational Trade- boosted immenselyExport production by Foreign-Invested EnterprisesIncreased from 1% in 85 to 45% in 98FIE-Led Export GrowthSource: Lardy (1999)# Approved ApplicationsApproved InflowActual Inflow1979 - 19829226.011.1719834701.730.64198418562.651.26198530735.9

6、31.66198614982.831.87198722333.712.31198859455.33.19198957795.63.39199072736.63.4919911297811.984.3719924876458.1211.01199383437111.4427.5219944754982.6833.7719953701191.2837.5219962455673.2841.731997210015145.26Sources: (State Statistical Bureau 1998), p. 138.The FDI Boom in ChinaIn 2002 China was

7、the #1 recipient of FDI worldwideRapid FDI growth began in early 1990s1979-1992 FDI inflow of 20.2 billion USD1997 stock stood at 196.8 billion USD5 year inflow of 176.6 billion USD- accounts for 89% stock!Compound annual growth rate of FDI 44% from 1992-1997GNP- FDI rose from 2% in 92 to 5% in 97FD

8、I in S. Korea early 90s at .02% GNPWhat happened in the early 1990s- specifically 1992?The FDI Boom in ChinaSource: China Business Review (Nov.-Dec. 2000)-Investment booms in the early 1990s then retracts in the wake of the Asian financial crisisWhat Accounts for the Boom?Explicit Chinese policy pre

9、mium on Foreign capital- Why?Traditional Motivations- conventional gains Productivity Improvements- significant spillovers and linkages- more competitive environmentFIEs almost twice as profitable as SOEs43,542 Industrial FIEs w/ profit of 40.79 billion USD86,982 SOEs with a profit of 41.26 billion

10、USDAverage difference in profit of $462,445Yet, no extraordinary policy shifts in 1991-92What Accounts for the Boom?Policy MotivationsSavings-Investment Gap-Countries need to subsidize industrialization, yet lack foreign exchange- Doesnt hold for PRCSavings Rate- higher 40.6% during boom yrs.Lower f

11、rom 1986-92 36%Saved more with more capital present?PRC as a Capital Exporter? (1998-WSJ)PRC has 40% of reserves invested in US treasury bonds (=56bn)In 1998 exported approx. 16 billion USDIn either case, the PRC had no chronic shortage of domestic capital at the time of the FDI boomYet, explicit po

12、licy premium on foreign capitalThe Preference for Foreign CapitalObvious benefits from conventional FDI wisdom- transfers, spillovers and linkagesBenefits must outweigh costs of courting FDIThere are consequences of the policy preferenceRound-Trip FDI- Domestic capital exported to acquire a foreign

13、“domicile, re-imported to establish an FIE-No net capital gainEstimated 25% total FDI by the World BankProblems of the Investment EnvironmentRegional Protectionism- comparable to regional ISI strategiesTo obtain market access, must produce w/i regionHuge returns from producing within protective wall

14、Limited competitionAlso leads to similar predatory behavior & rent-seeking Benefit: Regional competition to lure FDI will lead to erosion of barriers to FDI at national levelRoom for ImprovementDespite huge FDI stock, PRC still far below other developing states in FDI per capita measurementsIn 2000:

15、 Brazil received $195 per capitaChina got only $30 per head-15% Brazils OECD states- highly developed-avg. $1,320.9Closest developing state is S. Africa $22.2Next highest per capita ratio $54- ThailandChina still has far to go before achieving a developed statusAttracting High-Quality FDIHigh-Qualit

16、y? Investment in long-term, capital-intensive projects in high-tech sectorsMajority of FDI in manufacturing sectors(63%)Heavily focused on light & intermed. manufacturesThe time will come to outsource these jobs and move up the production ladderJust as S. Korea did (Nike)For now, China is the manufa

17、cturer to Asia FDI in China by Sector, 1999SectorProjectsAmount ContractedAmount Utilized($ million)Farming, Forestry, Livestock Farming, Fishing7621,471.70710.15Mining130322.21557.14Manufacturing12,04225,331.8022,603.34Textiles5351,198.521,370.89Chemicals8671,758.741,919.28Pharmaceuticals198692.626

18、84.41Ordinary Machinery485904.47976.69Special Equipment500743.33509.95Electronic and9223,942.713,145.72Telecommunications EquipmentPower, Gas, and Water Production and Supply1161,635.193,702.74Construction2471,096.19916.58Geological Prospecting and Water Conservancy1053.974.52Transportation, Storage

19、, and Post and Telecommunications Services2051,114.011,551.14Wholesale, Retail, and Food-related Services8251,204.13965.13Finance and Insurance337.0897.67Real Estate6694,177.855,588.31Social Services (including Hotels)1,4743,016.802,550.66Healthcare, Sports, and Social Welfare2867.27147.69Education,

20、 Culture, and the Arts2960.7260.72Scientific Research Services62133.72110.13Others3161,488.52752.68Total16,91841,223.0240,318.71NOTE: Totals may not add up because of rounding.Sources: PRC National Bureau of Statistics, China Monthly Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook, 2000; Ministry of Foreign

21、Trade and Economic CooperationFDI in China by Sector, 1999Attracting High-Quality FDIWays to attract higher-quality FDIConstruct a predictable policy regime-overcome weaknesses of regulatory frameworkInvestors desire stability more than incentivesLegal System- ambiguous and ineffectualBetter trained

22、 lawyersCourts free of politicizationImpartial and consistent application and enforcement of (existing)regulatory law, esp. IPREnforce rule of law consistently and broadlyAttracting High-Quality FDI (cont.)Centralize economic policy-making process- end market segmentationFinancial market inefficiency one source- distribute capital on regional l